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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. B.J. Upton, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5737928784516931.246.298.454.752
2013 Projections5758423776016531.245.316.431.747
2013 Outlook: Upton rode a 21-homer second half in 2012 to a five-year, $75 million payday with the Atlanta Braves, and there's always a danger with high-profile free-agent signees that their skill sets become exaggerated. A 21.6 home run/fly ball percentage contributed to Upton's sudden power outburst; to put it into perspective, keep in mind that he had an 11.3 average in the category from 2009 to '12. To say he fit the profile of a "contract-year player" stepping up his skills is fair, especially considering past questions about Upton's focus on the field. But in his defense, Upton not only finished among the top 50 players on our Player Rater in 2012, but he also did so in 2011, showing the value (for Fantasy purposes) of his 19-homer, 36-steal averages during his six full big-league seasons. He's a liability in the batting average category, but one of the better power/speed options in the game.
17. Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics4877023824310216.292.356.505.861
2013 Projections5527726915011418.279.347.496.843
2013 Outlook: Many questioned the Athletics' four-year, $36 million investment in Cespedes last February, but his rookie campaign couldn't be quantified as anything other than a complete success. Despite missing 33 games with hand, wrist and hamstring injuries, he managed a No. 56 ranking on our Player Rater, and perhaps more importantly became one of three players to manage at least a .300 batting average with double-digit homers and steals after the All-Star break, joining Ryan Braun and Mike Trout. Cespedes' max-effort swing might make him susceptible to further aches and pains, but it also hints at greater power potential, and he seemed to improve as a base runner with experience, stealing 12 of his 16 bases after July 1. He also cut down on his swing-and-miss rate, which dropped from 32 percent before the All-Star break to 25 percent after, meaning he might have growth potential in 2013. Draft him at his 2012 earnings, leaving some profit potential.
18. Ben Zobrist, TB OF, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5608820749710314.270.377.471.848
2013 Projections5659119829110817.269.369.462.831
2013 Outlook: After a three-year stretch of solid but inconsistent production, Zobrist has turned in consecutive seasons of nearly identical numbers. This should be considered his new baseline with a bit of power upside if he can loft a few more balls. His qualifying at three positions, including second base and shortstop, adds to Zobrist's value. That said, this also might induce some to reach for the veteran switch-hitter. So if you want him, be ready to pay the price. Of note is that Zobrist's excellent walk rate leads to sneaky value in on-base percentage and points leagues.
19. Michael Bourn, Cle OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics624969577015542.274.348.391.739
2013 Projections604895496213643.268.337.368.705
2013 Outlook: Bourn finally found work with the Indians juuuuuust before spring camps opened, and high-paying work at that: Four years and $48 million, locking him in as the team's everyday center fielder and leadoff man. He is still largely the player we've witnessed in any of his five full big league seasons; he's an annual stolen-base title contender whose .339 career on-base percentage should earn him the top-two lineup spot that would drive his runs scored total close to 100. His power in 2012, however, was almost entirely fluky. Five of his nine homers came in a 76-plate-appearance span last May; for perspective, he hit that many total in his previous 1,881 PAs. Though a two-category performer in rotisserie leagues, Bourn is so talented in those two categories that he shouldn't linger beyond the first five to six rounds of your mixed-league draft.
20. Austin Jackson*, Det OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics54310316666713412.300.377.479.856
2013 Projections62411015627117024.282.357.436.793
2013 Outlook: Judging by Jackson's career statistical profile, he looks like a player who believes that one creates his own luck. A "fortunate" fella who rode a .396 BABIP to a No. 2 finish in the American League Rookie of the Year race in 2010, Jackson has since made numerous improvements to his approach at the plate to mitigate the luck factors. Last season, he made massive advances with both his walk (career-high 10.9 percent) and strikeout (career-low 21.7 percent) rates, he cut his ground ball rate by 8 percent and he set a new personal best with a .228 well-hit average. The result was Jackson's first .300 season -- one truly earned -- a boost in power and a healthy .377 on-base percentage that drove his 103 runs scored. The only knocks on his year were his early-season DL stint for an abdominal strain, and a decline in stolen bases. If Jackson can stay healthy this year, though, he might be an under-the-radar candidate to lead the league in runs. Coupled with the other contributions he makes in rotisserie leagues, he could be quite a value in the early-to-middle rounds.
21. Allen Craig, StL 1B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics46976229237892.307.354.522.876
2013 Projections5488725103431014.296.344.505.850
2013 Outlook: One of the reasons Albert Pujols' bat wasn't terribly missed in St. Louis last summer was the presence of Craig. Cardinals first basemen -- Craig made 86 starts there, or more than half -- managed .293/.348/.485 rates (.832 OPS) in 2012, within range of their .292/.367/.522 (.889) numbers in 2011. Craig's was a major contribution, but the only way it could've been termed unexpected is that he stayed mostly healthy for once. Injuries have long been a weakness; he hasn't appeared in more than 129 games in a single pro year and has played only 76 percent of his team's scheduled games the past five seasons combined. On a rate/per-game basis, Craig belongs right up there with the second tiers of first basemen and outfielders. Considering those aren't difficult positions to fill in mixed leagues in-season during the times he's absent, he's well worth the early-round pick.
22. Desmond Jennings, TB OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5058513474612031.246.314.388.702
2013 Projections5929815545813836.252.326.397.723
2013 Outlook: Jennings' presence is a major reason the Rays allowed B.J. Upton to depart via free agency during the winter; he'll shift to center field and, statistically, isn't a far cry from Upton outside of the home runs. Now in his prime -- he's 26 -- and with parts of three seasons' big league experience, Jennings might have already made the adjustments necessary to be a breakthrough performer in 2013. His .258/.329/.419 rates, eight homers and 16-for-17 stolen-base performance the second half of last season look quite a bit like the player we saw in Triple-A or the second half of 2011 in the majors, and if you play in a league that values on-base percentage rather than batting average, he's especially attractive thanks to a 9.0 percent career walk rate. Jennings' most bankable asset is his speed; if he gets on base at a .350 clip, he could swipe as many as 50 bags. Anything else he offers beyond his career-to-date averages would be gravy.
23. Alex Rios, CWS OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics605932591269223.304.334.516.850
2013 Projections579832073288120.276.312.451.762
2013 Outlook: Rios has the reputation of being an every-other-year player, with 2013 slated to be a down year, but Rios' struggles in 2011 are more likely to be an outlier than the off year in a trend. Rios' contact and line-drive rates that year were in line with career norms; he was just snakebitten with a low BABIP that affected his overall production. That said, last season everything went right, as Rios set career highs in both BABIP and HR/FB, so normal regression should be anticipated. Still, this presents a buying opportunity since the market likely will depress Rios' value more than it should. If Rios sits atop your cheat sheet, don't be afraid to pull the trigger. The every-other-year label is unwarranted.
24. Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5988816677315021.283.373.441.815
2013 Projections5749217597313821.280.372.441.813
2013 Outlook: Choo bounced back from a down 2011 campaign, which was marred by injuries and dealing with a DUI. Many expect the move to Cincinnati will help Choo regain some lost power. The problem is that Choo's old digs, Progressive Field, increase left-handed power at a rate equal to the Great American Ball Park. In addition, Choo's home runs were depressed last season as a result of a big drop in fly ball rate; his HR/FB was normal. Choo will always carry some risk, as his strikeout rate is high and he thus relies on a high BABIP to maintain his batting average. When healthy, though, Choo hits enough line drives to support an elevated BABIP. Choo's power/speed combo is enticing. Just temper expectations despite a perceived friendlier hitting venue.
25. Alex Gordon, KC OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6429314727314010.294.368.455.822
2013 Projections6249418787414112.292.371.460.831
2013 Outlook: Much was expected from Gordon following a breakout 2011 campaign featuring career highs across the board. Unfortunately, those who believed were disappointed last season, as Gordon's power and speed fell back to previous levels, although he did maintain a high average. He's still only 28 years old and it's quite plausible he can return to 2011 levels, but it's no longer wise to chase the potential. The safe play is to split the difference and hope the upside returns, hanging your hat on the fact that Gordon's contact rate and plate patience both improved last season, suggesting he is still maturing.
26. Martin Prado, Ari OF, 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics617811070586917.301.359.438.796
2013 Projections627881475517012.297.348.437.785
2013 Outlook: If you're looking for reliability and durability to stabilize your lineup, Prado is your man. Other than a 2011 dip in average, which was the result of an uncharacteristically low BABIP, Prado has been a bastion of consistency. His high contact rate yields a high average, and he has double-digit pop. He even added some steals to his repertoire last season. Granted, Prado likely will not pick up second base or shortstop eligibility this season, but the move to the desert could mean a few more homers. There are sexier players with more upside, but there is something to be said for the peace of mind Prado brings to your squad, regardless of his position.
27. Melky Cabrera, Tor OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics459841160366313.346.390.516.906
2013 Projections602931371438315.301.346.452.797
2013 Outlook: The Blue Jays have learned a valuable lesson that fantasy owners should, too: Without specific evidence that players are due a steep statistical decline following a suspension for PEDs, we shouldn't be so fast to assume it'll happen. The team took a bit of a leap of faith by signing Cabrera to a two-year, $16 million contract during the winter, despite the fact that the 28-year-old outfielder didn't play in a single game after Aug. 14 last season, serving a 50-game suspension for testing positive for elevated testosterone levels then being held out of the Giants' World Series championship run as a team decision. The Blue Jays, assuming that Cabrera shouldn't slip far from the .360-on-base, double-double power/speed player we saw the past two seasons combined, are banking on him being a handy asset in the top third of their lineup, where his runs scored total should benefit from the team's winter additions. Unfortunately, in the absence of evidence, we have no idea whether Cabrera's performance will return to his 2006-10 levels, when he wasn't much of a mixed-league factor. It could happen. Much more likely -- primarily because of role, ballpark and supporting cast -- he'll be a closer to the ballplayer of 2011-12, and that's the way he should be valued.
28. Carlos Gomez, Mil OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics415721951209837.260.305.463.768
2013 Projections4677417462611633.248.296.422.718
2013 Outlook: After five seasons as almost literally a one-category player, Gomez finally offered fantasy owners a hint of power in 2012. His pitch recognition and aggressiveness improved -- he swung 8 percent more often on pitches in the strike zone than he had two years prior and his well-hit average rose nearly 100 points -- and he got more lift on the ball, his ground ball rate dropping to a career-low 42.0 percent. Gomez's additions do give him a chance at filling the homers and steals columns for his fantasy owners, but that makes him much more a rotisserie asset than one in points-based leagues. He's a dreadful batting average performer and is even worse at drawing walks -- his career on-base percentage is .294! -- and the Brewers might not promise him everyday at-bats as a result. To give you a sense, in fantasy terms, of Gomez's range of 2013 probabilities, B.J. Upton's 2012 would be the absolute best case, while Cameron Maybin's 2012 might be a fair low-end expectation.
29. Curtis Granderson, NYY OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics596102431067519510.232.319.492.811
2013 Projections4648830826013510.246.336.498.834
2013 Outlook: A broken arm suffered early in Spring Training will cost Granderson the first month of the season, but we still like his chances to hit 30 homers in five months. Here's a statistic that exemplifies the kind of slugger that Granderson has become: In 2012, he became the fifth Yankee in history with repeat 40-homer years, while also setting a franchise record for the highest percentage of plate appearances that ended in a strikeout (28.5 percent). Perhaps recognizing how apt a style for Yankee Stadium, Granderson has become an all-or-nothing, pull-power player, and it has resulted in the most homers hit at the venue over the past three years (61). By doing so, however, last season he gave back some of the gains that he made in his walk rate (down 1.3 percent) and he attempted fewer steals (22 fewer attempts). All that points to a player who has become more volatile in terms of batting average and, coupled with the drop in steals, also volatile in fantasy value. The Yankees, too, have lineup questions for the first time in years, threatening Granderson's runs/RBI production when he comes back, picking him can hamstring a fantasy team, so make sure you can deal with his low batting average if you select him, along with needing to fill in for him with another outfielder for the month of April.
30. Mark Trumbo, LAA OF, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics544663295361534.268.317.491.808
2013 Projections568703297351386.262.308.482.791
2013 Outlook: Trumbo has gotten off to hot starts in each of his two big league seasons only to cool considerably after the All-Star break. As he was better overall in 2012 than 2011, are we to assume he's still trending upward but needs to build greater stamina, or is it possible he's a first-half performer who warrants trading away by midseason? Tuck that thought away, but those who stick with Trumbo all year should know that he's a legitimate power source, capable of annual 30-homer totals, and batting behind such names as Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton could drive his RBI total above 100. Trumbo is a free-swinger with batting average risk, but if you address that category at other positions, he's well worth taking in the early to mid rounds in rotisserie formats.
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