ESPN » Free Fantasy Baseball » Oakland Roto 68860
Find a Player:
Compare Players (0)

Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | OF | SP | RP
     
«PREVIOUS | NEXT»
PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics604953610236821.321.359.561.921
2013 Projections579953410733713.313.350.556.906
2013 Outlook: Texas certainly seems to agree with Beltre. In his two seasons with the Rangers, he's a .338/.381/.644 hitter with 43 home runs at Rangers Ballpark, his slugging percentage tops among qualifiers and his homers second-most during that span. But don't let that convince you that he's a mere ballpark product; his .283 average and 25 homers on the road the past two seasons combined would be well worthy of having in any fantasy lineup. Now 34 years old (as of April 7) -- remarkable that he's that young for a 15-year veteran -- Beltre has shed the label of career disappointment and developed into one of the more consistently reliable options at his position. At worst, he's a .290-hitting, 25-homer candidate. To put that into fantasy terms, only three other third basemen have met those minimums in any of the past three seasons: Miguel Cabrera (2012), Aramis Ramirez (2011-12) and Ryan Zimmerman (2010).
17. Josh Hamilton, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics56210343128601627.285.354.577.930
2013 Projections5299334115511247.293.355.558.912
2013 Outlook: After a successful five-year run in Texas that included earning 2010 American League MVP honors and three Silver Sluggers awards while making two World Series appearances, Hamilton signed on with the division-rival Angels during the offseason. In doing so, he gave up the advantages of hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark; he had an OPS 107 points higher and batted 21 points higher there than on the road during his Rangers career. That's not to say that Hamilton's fantasy prospects are doomed by changing venues, as his .294/.356/.514 career rates outside of Rangers Ballpark remain outstanding, and he's joining an Angels lineup potent enough to continue padding his runs/RBIs. Hamilton's greater concerns are his rising swing-and-miss rate -- he missed on a major league-high 36 percent of his swings last season and whiffed 29.3 percent of the time after the All-Star break -- and his propensity for injury, as he averaged 129 games per year with the Rangers, making three trips to the DL. Expect another All-Star season, but his days of .300 batting averages are likely over.
18. Jose Bautista, Tor OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics33264276559635.241.358.527.886
2013 Projections508984110895998.268.387.561.948
2013 Outlook: A left wrist injury he suffered on a swing during a July 16 game derailed the most impressive power streak in baseball the past half-decade: From Sept. 1, 2009, through July 16, 2012, Bautista hit a major league-leading 134 home runs, 34 more than anyone else. Unfortunately, that wrist issue dogged the slugger for the rest of the year, as he aggravated the problem two games into an August return, eventually succumbing to season-ending surgery. Bautista said in January that he has fully healed, but his spring might prove the ultimate test, specifically whether the injury has sapped any of his power. If it fully returns, he'll benefit from the Blue Jays' substantial lineup upgrades in the Nos. 1-2 spots -- Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera combined had an on-base percentage 59 points higher than what the Blue Jays got out of those two spots in 2012 -- and perhaps make another run at top-10-overall status. Keep careful watch on his March.
19. Evan Longoria, TB 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics27339175533612.289.369.527.896
2013 Projections5389234109771148.294.385.550.935
2013 Outlook: Longoria is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the most injury-prone players in the game, and to an extent that's fair. He has played only 637 of 800 scheduled Rays games since his big league debut and made three trips to the DL, though in his defense two could be termed fluky: He suffered a fractured wrist on a hit-by-pitch in 2008, and his partially torn left hamstring last year was the result of a slide into second on a stolen base attempt. Picking Longoria in the early rounds requires a leap of faith, so we'll give you his 2012 stats prorated to 162 games to outline your hope: .289 batting average, 36 home runs, 116 RBIs, 82 runs scored. Fantasy owners in points-based leagues might be more apt to chance it; he's one of the better players in terms of plate discipline, his 0.67 walks-per-strikeout ratio the past three seasons combined ranking him in the upper 20 percent of qualifiers. Longoria belongs in the discussion for the top 25 overall players in any format on skills, but the longer he slides in your draft, the comfier you'll feel.
20. Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics563811565486020.290.347.449.797
2013 Projections600921770677020.293.364.453.818
2013 Outlook: It was not the best year for Pedroia or his right hand. In early May, the diminutive second baseman sprained his right thumb, but he toughed it out at the expense of production, as evidenced by his uncharacteristically poor pre-All-Star-break line of .266 with only six homers and six steals. Then in late July, Pedroia tore a ligament in his right pinkie, which necessitated offseason surgery. The pinkie did not bother Pedroia nearly as much, as he returned to form, going .318 with nine homers and an impressive 20 steals after the break. Pedroia could be moved down in the order, leading to more RBI opportunities. Regardless, the former rookie of the year and MVP should again be among the most valuable second basemen.
21. Ian Kinsler*, Tex 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6551051972609021.256.326.423.749
2013 Projections6151032368727921.265.349.450.799
2013 Outlook: My, how quickly a player sheds the injury-prone label. After making two trips to the DL in 2010 alone while averaging 124 games played per year from 2006-10, Kinsler amassed the most plate appearances in baseball the past two seasons combined, sitting out only 12 games total in 2011-12. This afforded him the opportunity to total 51 home runs and 51 stolen bases in those two years, making him the only second baseman and one of only three players overall to amass at least 50 of each. With health no longer a valid criticism, Kinsler's only weakness is batting average, odd considering he had a remarkably low strikeout rate (11.4 percent) and swing-and-miss rate (11.8 percent) in those two seasons. No matter -- it's that contact ability that makes him one of the most attractive selections in points-based leagues. Kinsler also makes a compelling case to be picked in the first three rounds in rotisserie, too, considering his skills relative to his second-base brethren.
22. Jason Heyward, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5879327825815221.269.335.479.814
2013 Projections6029330967315422.261.344.478.822
2013 Outlook: And that, fantasy owners, is why it's dangerous to give up on a 22-year-old former No. 1 overall prospect (Heyward was Keith Law's top prospect in 2010). After a sophomore season ruined by shoulder problems and a penchant for weak ground balls, Heyward exploded in his third full big league year, becoming one of 10 players to go 20/20 in 2012. A more aggressive approach helped -- he swung 3 percent more often overall and 10 percent more often on pitches over the inside of the plate -- and the result was a major correction to his ground ball rate. He hit 10 percent fewer grounders, a massive improvement. Better health contributed, and Heyward's bolder approach in stealing bases only bolstered his value. As more of a free-swinger maximizing his power, he's a bit riskier than anticipated in terms of batting average (and therefore points-league value) than when he was rising the minor league chain, but few players possess the 30-homer, 20-steal potential that he does. That the Braves spent the winter retooling their lineup might also help Heyward in terms of RBIs and runs. He's well worth an early-round pick.
23. Jose Reyes*, Tor SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics642861157635640.287.347.433.780
2013 Projections578881047515034.291.345.441.787
2013 Outlook: Part of the Miami Marlins' 2012 one-year-and-done spending spree, Reyes was traded to the Blue Jays in November in one of the largest salary dumps in baseball history. Frankly, from a fantasy perspective, the Marlins did Reyes a favor. In Toronto, he'll bat atop the most potent lineup he has been a part of in at least five years, and keep in mind that in 2008 he scored 113 runs to finish fifth in the majors in the category. Reyes was a top-10-caliber fantasy player back then, and that's his upside in 2013, the primary reason why he's not ranked as such with the injuries he has since battled. He made two separate trips to the DL for hamstring issues in 2011 and has missed occasional contests with hamstring and oblique injuries in the past three years. Plus, as a soon-to-be 30-year-old (June 11), he might not quite be as physically equipped to man the Rogers Centre's artificial turf on an every-night basis. Don't let Reyes slip deep into your draft, especially considering the dearth of quality shortstops, but beware of inflating your expectations of him in his new city.
24. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5429342110849413.280.384.557.941
2013 Projections554933699719210.283.369.534.904
2013 Outlook: Like teammate Jose Bautista two seasons before him, Encarnacion blossomed in the power department during his age-29 campaign. As Bautista did, Encarnacion warmed to hitting coach Dwayne Murphy's "pick your pitch, then swing hard" philosophy, and it helped that he both adjusted his swing and shed 10 pounds before the season, increasing his bat speed. Encarnacion swatted 42 home runs -- 28 of them pulled to left field, another Bautista-esque trait -- in 151 games, four more than he had hit in 2010-11 combined and only eight shy of Bautista's breakout 2010 total albeit in 10 fewer contests. He also maintained his power throughout, hitting 19 homers after the All-Star break and seven in September, though he gave back much of his batting-average gains late, hitting .261 in the second half and .238 in September. Encarnacion's power is legit and his 14.6 percent strikeout rate eases those batting average concerns somewhat. Like Bautista, he should be good for a few more years of power totals that rank among the league's leaders.
25. Adam Jones, Bal OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics64810332823412616.287.334.505.839
2013 Projections6309029923212415.287.331.487.818
2013 Outlook: Jones' career has followed an almost perfect aging curve, culminating in career highs in games played (162), plate appearances (697), hits (186), doubles (39), home runs (32), runs scored (103), batting average (.287) and slugging percentage (.505) as a 26-year-old in 2012. Though his performance might be somewhat glossed over by the so-called "Orioles magic," in truth his output shouldn't have been unexpected. He has long been regarded a budding power hitter with above-average speed; his weakness is that his plate discipline hasn't improved to the point where he'll ever be an asset in terms of batting average. What we saw from Jones in 2012 might have been about his peak expectation, but he's only entering the prime years of his career. Might there be more? It's possible, but his drafting owners would hardly complain if the result was an out-and-out repeat.
26. Starlin Castro, ChC SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6467814783610025.283.323.430.753
2013 Projections6588713733610024.296.334.435.769
2013 Outlook: Castro has absorbed his share of criticism for an alleged lack of focus during his three seasons in the bigs, but in his defense, he batted .306/.367/.464 -- all of those higher than his career rates to date -- in the final third of 2012 following his inking a seven-year, $60 million extension with the Cubs. So is it fair to sling barbs his way? The kid begins 2013 at only age 23, and his accomplishments to date rank within range of the greatest shortstops in the game's history; his 529 career hits are fourth-most by any shortstop through his age-22 campaign. Castro has already proven to fantasy owners his durability -- he played all but 11 innings at shortstop last year -- speed and ability to hit for a high average, and scouts felt earlier in his pro career that he had the potential to develop more power. Castro might take only baby steps by year, considering a player's prime is usually in the ages 25 to 30 range, but stepping up his 2012 production would result in a top-25 player.
27. Jay Bruce, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics560893499621559.252.327.514.841
2013 Projections5749538108681589.267.346.533.879
2013 Outlook: A home run crown might be in Bruce's future, but a batting title surely is not. A .308 career minor league hitter who was always expected to possess plus power, Bruce has adapted his swing as a big leaguer to drive the ball, recognizing his skills are suited to as high as 40-homer outputs at the expense of high strikeout totals. His homer total has increased in every big league year and his ground ball rate has dropped in each, though a rise in his strikeout rate -- his 24.5 percent number in 2012 was a career high -- probably locks his batting average close to last year's .250 range. Picking Bruce means taking a shot at scoring the National League's home run champ, and it means seeking batting average help elsewhere in rotisserie leagues. That's an early-round pick, but not one of the top picks.
28. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5339822595612018.270.340.477.817
2013 Projections5868727936413522.266.339.478.817
2013 Outlook: Harper's Rookie of the Year campaign, an honor earned at the age of 19, put him up there with some of the best players in history. His 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was the most in any single season by a teenager, and he was only the eighth player in history with at least 2.0 WAR solely on offense (he had 3.4). And in terms of fantasy stats, Harper's 22 homers are second-most and his 18 stolen bases third-most by a teenager. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, something fantasy owners have known since the instant he was tabbed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and there should come a time -- sooner rather than later  when he's tallying MVP-caliber statistics, meaning he's one of the most valuable commodities out there in dynasty leagues. Could the transformation happen this season? Perhaps. But Harper did bat .260 after the All-Star break, and both his 20.1 percent strikeout and 45.3 percent ground ball rates for the full year say that it might be a more gradual transformation. There's a danger that Harper buzz could spiral out of control, pushing him close to first-round status. His ceiling is in that class; more realistic expectations should have him just outside of the elite group ... for 2013 alone, that is.
29. Billy Butler, KC 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6147229107541112.313.373.510.882
2013 Projections6098427107631012.320.385.516.901
2013 Outlook: After leading the majors in doubles from 2009-11 combined (140), Butler finally converted some of those into home runs at the age of 26 last season, setting personal bests in homers (29), RBIs (107) and slugging percentage (.510). His transformation coincided with little more than a boost to his home run/fly ball percentage -- his 18.6 rate in the category was also a career high -- meaning he finally got some of the good fortune he deserved on batted balls. That could mean that Butler doesn't have much more room for growth, but is any fantasy owner going to complain about a player practically certain to bat at least .300 with 25 homers? As difficult as this is to believe, only 11 players reached both of those thresholds last season. Butler also barely met the 20-game minimum to qualify at first base in 2013; that's the kind of boost to his value that strengthens his candidacy for a pick in the first few rounds of any draft.
30. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6297518108421102.299.344.463.806
2013 Projections6259124109631121.307.372.499.871
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez could be one of the toughest reads on the board. His contact rate has been remarkably consistent the past four seasons, but his walk rate and power have declined every year since 2009. It is this drop in power that is most confusing, since it was expected Gonzalez would hit more homers after escaping the cavernous Petco Park. Clouding the analytics is not knowing how the shoulder surgery Gonzalez had after the 2010 season affected his power, not to mention his mental state during the circus last season in Boston. The safe play is to pay for an average in the neighborhood of .300 and 200 combined runs and RBIs, then let the power take care of itself. Accept 20 bombs; don't chase the possibility of 30.
«PREVIOUS | NEXT»
Expand Help Topics+