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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Miguel Cabrera, Det 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6221094413966984.330.393.606.99914810
2013 Projections5951163912786933.336.419.6071.02614270
2013 Outlook: Accomplishments like the Triple Crown matter in fantasy baseball, and apparently in the awards races, too, as Cabrera won the American League's MVP award after becoming the first to lead his respective league in batting average, home runs and RBIs in 45 years. He did it despite dealing with the adjustment back to third base, a position he hadn't manned regularly in five years, albeit one that helped boost his fantasy appeal. To illustrate, from 2010-12, the average third basemen hit six fewer home runs per year than the average first baseman. Cabrera will turn 30 years old in April, still arguably within his prime, and he'll be a heart-of-the-order hitter for a Tigers lineup that added Torii Hunter and gets back Victor Martinez from injury, not to mention has playoff aspirations and therefore will always be looking to improve. His chances at a repeat are excellent, and thanks to his new position eligibility, he's a bona fide candidate to be the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball in 2013.
2. Albert Pujols, LAA 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics607853010552768.285.343.516.85912150
2013 Projections61410234115646810.300.367.533.90013310
2013 Outlook: Pick your side of the argument: Is Pujols' five-year trend of declining OPS, plus his early-season struggles with the Angels, a sign of his hitting the down slope of his career? Or were Pujols' 2012 first-quarter issues an obvious indication of a league adjustment, and his .310/.373/.584, 27-homer, 87-RBI performance in the final three quarters, a stronger indication that he has plenty left in the tank? In his defense, most of his best career comparables remained superstars through their age-33 seasons, and his Angels did quite a job bolstering his supporting offensive cast when they signed free agent Josh Hamilton. Pujols might no longer be a batting title contender, or perhaps not even a lock for .300, and his new baseline in homers might be closer to 30 than 40, but even at his new levels of production he'll pile up the runs and RBIs. No longer a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, Pujols nevertheless ranks up there with the 10 best in the game.
3. Joey Votto, Cin 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics37459145694855.337.474.5671.0418190
2013 Projections5539528981171239.320.441.5611.00112250
2013 Outlook: Votto last season finally faced adversity for the first time as a big leaguer, succumbing to a pair of knee surgeries, one in July and one in August, that sapped his power following his late-season return. In 30 games, playoffs included, he went 127 plate appearances without a home run, his fly ball rate 33 percent and his at-bats per double 11.8. Compare that to his stats last year before landing on the DL: 14 home runs in 370 PAs, 36 percent fly ball rate, 8.3 at-bats per double. In other words, it'd be nice to see Votto mashing during spring training. But even without that evidence, the winter's rest should've done him some good, he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in one of the best lineups in baseball, and he possesses some of the most balanced splits in the game. Votto has a higher lifetime road (.981) OPS than at home (.954), and his .913 OPS against left-handers the past three seasons ranks No. 1 among left-handed hitters. Why shouldn't we believe he's capable of recapturing his MVP form?
4. Prince Fielder, Det 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics581833010885841.313.412.528.94012090
2013 Projections5769735116100991.313.423.556.97912710
2013 Outlook: One of the game's premier power sources, Fielder's 258 home runs since the beginning of 2006 rank third-best and 754 RBIs fifth-best in the majors. But what has made Fielder, now 28, such a valuable commodity in fantasy is his soaring rate of contact. The son of Cecil Fielder, who had a 22.2 percent career strikeout rate, Prince whiffed a career-low 12.2 percent of the time in 2012, a number his father never came close to attaining. That helped explain his career-best .313 batting average, and it's a skills improvement that might potentially elevate him into the first round in mixed leagues considering he bats in the heart of an improved lineup with Miguel Cabrera, who has a lifetime .395 on-base percentage, slotted ahead of him. Despite playing a deep position, Fielder is the kind of elite slugger worth his price tag.
5. Buster Posey, SF C, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics530782410369961.336.408.549.95711250
2013 Projections55076249867942.318.392.520.91211000
2013 Outlook: Few players historically were more obvious choices for Comeback Player of the Year honors than Posey in 2012. Remember, one year ago at this time, our last image of Posey was the nasty home-plate collision with Florida Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins on May 25, 2011, that resulted in a fractured fibula, torn ankle ligaments and serious questions whether Posey could ever return to the daily chores of catching. Return to catching he did, and return to excellence at bat he did. He became the first catcher in 13 seasons to manage at least a .330 batting average, 20 home runs and 100 RBIs, and the result was the National League's MVP award. Again from a historical perspective, Posey's career ascent looks much like that of Mike Piazza, a Hall of Fame candidate: Posey has .314/.380/.503 rates in 308 career games in his first three seasons, while Piazza had .312/.364/.537 in 277 games in his first three. This is a once-in-a-generation catching talent, one who gets enough "time off" at first base to keep him healthy, and one who is so valuable relative to replacement at the position to warrant being one of the first picks off the board.
6. David Wright, NYM 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5819121938111215.306.391.492.88311640
2013 Projections59393271008212917.287.373.494.86711870
2013 Outlook: The Mets' clear franchise player after they signed him during the winter to an eight-year, $138 million extension through 2020, Wright has proven himself well worth the label after adapting his game to the team's more pitching-friendly ballpark. Citi Field's spacious fences have forced him to adapt his swing more for contact -- he whiffed only 16.7 percent of the time in 2012, after three straight years above 20 percent -- and Wright began to use the entire field last year once the Mets shrunk the outfield dimensions slightly. This is not a lock of a 30-homer power source, or a batting title contender, but rather a complete player who might challenge for .300 and 25, plus one who has averaged 20 steals over his eight full big league seasons. The sum is one of the most balanced contributors in all rotisserie categories, a rarity at third base and someone who warrants a pick in the first two rounds in any league format -- first round if the league (NL-only?) is deep enough.
7. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics604953610236821.321.359.561.92112570
2013 Projections579953410733713.313.350.556.90612180
2013 Outlook: Texas certainly seems to agree with Beltre. In his two seasons with the Rangers, he's a .338/.381/.644 hitter with 43 home runs at Rangers Ballpark, his slugging percentage tops among qualifiers and his homers second-most during that span. But don't let that convince you that he's a mere ballpark product; his .283 average and 25 homers on the road the past two seasons combined would be well worthy of having in any fantasy lineup. Now 34 years old (as of April 7) -- remarkable that he's that young for a 15-year veteran -- Beltre has shed the label of career disappointment and developed into one of the more consistently reliable options at his position. At worst, he's a .290-hitting, 25-homer candidate. To put that into fantasy terms, only three other third basemen have met those minimums in any of the past three seasons: Miguel Cabrera (2012), Aramis Ramirez (2011-12) and Ryan Zimmerman (2010).
8. Evan Longoria, TB 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics27339175533612.289.369.527.8965530
2013 Projections5389234109771148.294.385.550.93511720
2013 Outlook: Longoria is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the most injury-prone players in the game, and to an extent that's fair. He has played only 637 of 800 scheduled Rays games since his big league debut and made three trips to the DL, though in his defense two could be termed fluky: He suffered a fractured wrist on a hit-by-pitch in 2008, and his partially torn left hamstring last year was the result of a slide into second on a stolen base attempt. Picking Longoria in the early rounds requires a leap of faith, so we'll give you his 2012 stats prorated to 162 games to outline your hope: .289 batting average, 36 home runs, 116 RBIs, 82 runs scored. Fantasy owners in points-based leagues might be more apt to chance it; he's one of the better players in terms of plate discipline, his 0.67 walks-per-strikeout ratio the past three seasons combined ranking him in the upper 20 percent of qualifiers. Longoria belongs in the discussion for the top 25 overall players in any format on skills, but the longer he slides in your draft, the comfier you'll feel.
9. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5429342110849413.280.384.557.94112420
2013 Projections554933699719210.283.369.534.90411680
2013 Outlook: Like teammate Jose Bautista two seasons before him, Encarnacion blossomed in the power department during his age-29 campaign. As Bautista did, Encarnacion warmed to hitting coach Dwayne Murphy's "pick your pitch, then swing hard" philosophy, and it helped that he both adjusted his swing and shed 10 pounds before the season, increasing his bat speed. Encarnacion swatted 42 home runs -- 28 of them pulled to left field, another Bautista-esque trait -- in 151 games, four more than he had hit in 2010-11 combined and only eight shy of Bautista's breakout 2010 total albeit in 10 fewer contests. He also maintained his power throughout, hitting 19 homers after the All-Star break and seven in September, though he gave back much of his batting-average gains late, hitting .261 in the second half and .238 in September. Encarnacion's power is legit and his 14.6 percent strikeout rate eases those batting average concerns somewhat. Like Bautista, he should be good for a few more years of power totals that rank among the league's leaders.
10. Billy Butler, KC 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6147229107541112.313.373.510.88211640
2013 Projections6098427107631012.320.385.516.90112000
2013 Outlook: After leading the majors in doubles from 2009-11 combined (140), Butler finally converted some of those into home runs at the age of 26 last season, setting personal bests in homers (29), RBIs (107) and slugging percentage (.510). His transformation coincided with little more than a boost to his home run/fly ball percentage -- his 18.6 rate in the category was also a career high -- meaning he finally got some of the good fortune he deserved on batted balls. That could mean that Butler doesn't have much more room for growth, but is any fantasy owner going to complain about a player practically certain to bat at least .300 with 25 homers? As difficult as this is to believe, only 11 players reached both of those thresholds last season. Butler also barely met the 20-game minimum to qualify at first base in 2013; that's the kind of boost to his value that strengthens his candidacy for a pick in the first few rounds of any draft.
11. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6297518108421102.299.344.463.80611110
2013 Projections6259124109631121.307.372.499.87111900
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez could be one of the toughest reads on the board. His contact rate has been remarkably consistent the past four seasons, but his walk rate and power have declined every year since 2009. It is this drop in power that is most confusing, since it was expected Gonzalez would hit more homers after escaping the cavernous Petco Park. Clouding the analytics is not knowing how the shoulder surgery Gonzalez had after the 2010 season affected his power, not to mention his mental state during the circus last season in Boston. The safe play is to pay for an average in the neighborhood of .300 and 200 combined runs and RBIs, then let the power take care of itself. Accept 20 bombs; don't chase the possibility of 30.
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics578932595571165.282.346.478.82410590
2013 Projections585922695631125.292.361.489.85010960
2013 Outlook: Zimmerman is one of the most talented all-around third basemen in baseball -- it's a shame that most fantasy leagues don't give him credit for his defensive contributions -- but also one with a somewhat checkered injury past. A shoulder injury cost him a DL stint early last year, and he required four cortisone shots during the season to deal with the pain. Those helped: He batted .325/.382/.591 after his third injection on June 24 (the first two reportedly didn't work). But then we must stress that he batted only .218/.285/.305 before that date, showing how poorly he performs when he's hurting. Zimmerman is, and has been for some time, a hot-and-cold player probably directly tied to his level of pain tolerance, meaning it's difficult to forecast whether we'll get one of the top fantasy third basemen or one who's barely league-average. His draft appeal might hinge on perception; if he slips beyond the first few rounds, he's well worth that risk. But if his stature as a heart-of-the-order hitter for the Nats -- who should be really good this year -- drives up the price, he might be better left to someone else.
13. Brett Lawrie*, Tor 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics494731148338613.273.324.405.7297640
2013 Projections5748617654110819.280.335.449.7849860
2013 Outlook: Lawrie's first full season in the majors wasn't as swimmingly successful as most expected. Though he contributed a bit in every prominent rotisserie category, not one of his numbers in any of the traditional five could be classified "outstanding," and his all-out effort made him more susceptible to aches and pains than anticipated. Lawrie made a trip to the DL for a strained oblique muscle and batted .240/.304/.365 after the All-Star break, looking very much like a player in the midst of adjustments. Having not shown he has made them -- that 51.0 percent ground ball rate he had for the full season is one hint -- Lawrie shouldn't be termed a slam-dunk breakout candidate for 2013. He has the potential to restore the 20/20 potential he showed in the minors and was predicted to have a year ago, numbers that would vault him into the upper tier at his position, but be careful assuming that's what's coming.
14. Allen Craig, StL 1B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics46976229237892.307.354.522.8769440
2013 Projections5488725103431014.296.344.505.85010740
2013 Outlook: One of the reasons Albert Pujols' bat wasn't terribly missed in St. Louis last summer was the presence of Craig. Cardinals first basemen -- Craig made 86 starts there, or more than half -- managed .293/.348/.485 rates (.832 OPS) in 2012, within range of their .292/.367/.522 (.889) numbers in 2011. Craig's was a major contribution, but the only way it could've been termed unexpected is that he stayed mostly healthy for once. Injuries have long been a weakness; he hasn't appeared in more than 129 games in a single pro year and has played only 76 percent of his team's scheduled games the past five seasons combined. On a rate/per-game basis, Craig belongs right up there with the second tiers of first basemen and outfielders. Considering those aren't difficult positions to fill in mixed leagues in-season during the times he's absent, he's well worth the early-round pick.
15. Joe Mauer, Min C, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics54581108590888.319.416.446.86110460
2013 Projections53579128079755.310.399.445.8449900
2013 Outlook: The gradual shift from behind the plate -- exactly one-half of his 2012 starts came at catcher, whereas in 2008 he started 135 times there -- seems to be doing Mauer some good. He rebounded from a down, injury-plagued 2011 to capture the majors' on-base percentage crown (.416) while placing third among catchers on our Player Rater, and in the process he set new personal bests in terms of games played (147), starts (144) and plate appearances (641). The Twins will take note of that and, while they'll probably employ another share of the catching chores between Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera, that's a plus for Mauer's keeper-league owners because it means he might again play the requisite games to qualify there for 2014, too. He'll remain a health risk for the remainder of his career, and a greater one the larger his catching demands, but few players bring the level of batting average/on-base percentage potential that Mauer does. He's well worth the choice in the early-to-mid rounds.
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