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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		63	0	62.2	14	116	3	42	0	1.01	0.65	16.66		379
	2013 Projections		69	0	68.0	23	120	4	41	0	1.99	0.85	15.88		359
2013 Outlook: If your strategy is to pay for saves, Kimbrel should be the first name on your list by far. His 2012 season ranked among the all-time best for a closer, if not the best; he set new single-season records in terms of his strikeout rate (50.2 percent of total batters faced, minimum 200), K's per nine innings (16.66, minimum 50 innings), FIP (0.78), batting average allowed (.126) and OPS allowed (.358). That gave him back-to-back campaigns of otherworldly statistics, and the Braves smartly lightened his workload in 2012, trotting him to the hill 63 times -- 17 of those on consecutive days and only twice working three straight -- after 79 times, 28 of those on consecutive days and eight times working three straight in 2011. There is precedent for a reliever managing three consecutive seasons at this level of dominance -- see Gagne, Eric (2002-04), as one such notable example -- so consider Kimbrel your most "trustworthy" relief pitching investment for 2013.

2. Aroldis Chapman, Cin SP, RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		68	0	71.2	23	122	5	38	6	1.51	0.81	15.32		359
	2013 Projections		67	0	70.0	36	104	6	37	0	2.57	1.14	13.37		309
2013 Outlook: We've already seen what Chapman the closer is capable of: He's as good a pick as anyone at the position not named Craig Kimbrel. That's why, questionable as the decision is from a pure baseball perspective, the Reds' late-spring decision to return Champan to the closer's role, after so much early-spring chatter that he might start, makes sense. Let's summarize Chapman's repertoire: His fastball averaged 97.7 mph in 2012, second-highest among relief qualifiers; and he has a plus slider that helps him pile up the strikeouts. This was a decision that should instill more comfort in his drafting owners; we've already seen him succeed. He'd have been an early-round pick as either starter or reliever, but there's no doubt he's a top-70 overall player, and top-three-closer, now that his 2013 role is clear.

3. Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		70	0	70.0	18	92	5	38	0	2.44	1.06	11.83		291
	2013 Projections		67	0	68.0	20	85	5	39	0	3.04	1.09	11.25		278
2013 Outlook: Though it was only slight, Papelbon's base skills were a tick worse in his first season with Philadelphia as compared to his final campaign in Boston. There is no reason not to expect a repeat this time around, but beware as he was a bit fortunate with LOB% so his ERA is due a correction. Still, with a strikeout rate that has been in double digits since 2007 and good control, Papelbon is one of a handful of closers who can be relied upon to deliver the goods year after year.

4. Kris Medlen, Atl SP, RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		50	12	138.0	23	120	10	1	7	1.57	0.91	7.83		406
	2013 Projections		30	30	185.0	40	160	11	0	0	3.02	1.12	7.78		419
2013 Outlook: Would you believe that Kris Medlen, not Stephen Strasburg, was the highest-ranked pitcher on the 2012 Player Rater among those enjoying their first full big-league seasons coming off Tommy John surgery? Medlen posted a 2.48 ERA in 38 relief appearances before transitioning to the Braves' rotation in July, where he managed an unheard-of 0.97 ERA in 12 turns plus 10 consecutive quality starts to conclude the year (if you count the wild-card game). He flashed all the skills you'd want from a fantasy starter: A 5.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranked third-best among pitchers with 100-plus innings, a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate that ranked 16th among pitchers to face 500 or more batters, and a split of only 20 points in OPS between right- and left-handed hitters. Medlen's success is sustainable, but some regression in his ratios (ERA/WHIP) is inevitable. It's actually not the fear that his ERA might balloon to 4-plus that's responsible for his "low" ranking; it's that he has never pitched more than the 138 innings that he did in 2012 previously as a pro. Is he ready to handle the chores of a full-time workhorse? Maybe, but be cautious not to assume it.

5. Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		69	0	67.2	24	69	2	42	4	2.26	1.17	9.18		282
	2013 Projections		60	0	56.0	19	61	4	37	0	2.89	1.14	9.80		237
2013 Outlook: In one of the more surprising transactions of the winter, Soriano signed a two-year, $28-million deal with the Washington Nationals, who, last we saw them, had absorbed a most painful blown save by Drew Storen en route to a Division Series ouster. Soriano takes over Storen's role as the team's primary finisher, a gig in which he posted 40-save, sub-2.50-ERA campaigns in both 2010 and 2012, and his prospects for a third such campaign in a four-year span are good, thanks to his newfound contract security as well as escaping the hitting-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. To the latter point, he had a 1.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in road games during his two-year stint with the Yankees, his lack of a truly dominating pitch to use against lefties hurting him at home: He had a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at Yankee Stadium during that same time, lefties touching him up for a .290 batting average and 12.9 home run/fly ball percentage there. Soriano possesses elite closer skills and, while the Nationals have compelling candidates setting him up, he's unlikely to cede the gig. Consider him a top-five option at his position.

6. Fernando Rodney, TB RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		76	0	74.2	15	76	2	48	0	0.60	0.78	9.16		372
	2013 Projections		69	0	64.0	26	61	2	38	0	2.53	1.14	8.58		243
2013 Outlook: How does a guy go from walking nearly eight batters per nine innings to being a Cy Young candidate at closer? You move him over a little on the rubber, tweak his motion and alter his repertoire so he throws a few more two-seam fastballs as well as more changeups. The result for Rodney was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. But can he repeat? First off, regardless of anything else, his hit and home run rates were rather lucky, so some regression is expected in those areas. Ultimately, the key will be now much of his 1.81 BB/9 Rodney retains. Some giveback should be anticipated, but even so, Rodney deserves to be lumped in with the second tier of closers. Cutting your BB/9 from 7.88 to 1.81 is not done by accident, he's a different pitcher.

7. Mariano Rivera, NYY RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		9	0	8.1	2	8	1	5	0	2.16	0.96	8.64		34
	2013 Projections		57	0	55.0	10	50	2	36	0	2.29	0.91	8.18		230
2013 Outlook: In 17 seasons as a full-time major leaguer, Rivera has shown us that he's human precisely three times: When he served up that home run to Sandy Alomar Jr. during the 1997 playoffs, when he made that throwing error in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, and last May, when he suffered a season-ending torn ACL shagging fly balls. That's one heck of a track record. Rivera is reportedly healthy and back to close for the Yankees during his age-43 season, and considering the sharpness of his signature cutter before he got hurt, there's no reason to expect a downturn in performance. Still, he's coming off major reconstructive surgery and the track record of successful relievers at his age is short; Hoyt Wilhelm is the only other notable example. Of course, Wilhelm is a Hall of Famer and in time so will be Rivera, so while there's always a chance Rivera is near the end, you shouldn't be afraid to treat him as one of the 10 best closers in fantasy baseball.

8. J.J. Putz*, Ari RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		57	0	54.1	11	65	1	32	0	2.82	1.03	10.77		204
	2013 Projections		59	0	53.0	11	64	4	36	0	2.89	1.06	10.87		233
2013 Outlook: From a skills perspective, Putz is among the top relievers in the game, sporting an eye-popping 5.5 K/BB since becoming the Diamondbacks' closer to start the 2011 campaign. His durability is the issue, averaging 55 innings the past three seasons, which is fewer than most top closers. But there is a solution: Handcuff Putz with David Hernandez and you'll be covered.

9. Joe Nathan, Tex RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		66	0	64.1	13	78	3	37	0	2.80	1.06	10.91		258
	2013 Projections		66	0	63.0	15	72	3	38	0	3.29	1.11	10.29		248
2013 Outlook: Fully recovered from 2010's Tommy John surgery, Nathan reclaimed his spot among the top closers in the game last season and even improved his ground ball rate to help limit the homers in hitter friendly Texas. Some are shying away fearing injury, but there is no out of the ordinary reason to do so. If you're looking for a top closer at a possible discount, look at Nathan.

10. Joel Hanrahan*, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		63	0	59.2	36	67	5	36	0	2.72	1.27	10.11		249
	2013 Projections		68	0	63.0	25	74	5	34	3	3.00	1.19	10.57		250
2013 Outlook: After trending downward in walk rate for several years, it all reversed for Hanrahan last season as his control woes resurfaced. In addition, his fly ball rate spiked leading to a high home run rate. But Hanrahan buckled down when it counted as evidenced by his 2.72 ERA and 10.1 K/9. The Red Sox aren't concerned about the 2012 bump in walks and homers, as they feel their coaches can cure what ails Hanrahan after acquiring him to be their closer. Hanrahan's leash will be fairly long, but Boston does have several viable arms in the event Hanrahan's elevated walk and homer rate persist in Beantown.

11. John Axford, Mil RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		75	0	69.1	39	93	5	35	3	4.67	1.44	12.07		201
	2013 Projections		71	0	70.0	33	90	3	38	0	3.47	1.31	11.57		246
2013 Outlook: Axford's control issues led him to blowing 8 saves in 26 chances and losing the closer gig for a couple of weeks in August before being inserted back and converting 17 of his final 18 save chances. The thing is, his control did not improve any as Axford's BB/9 over his final 19.1 innings was 5.6 as compared to 4.9 for his initial 50 frames. A seasonal K/9 of 12.1 is alluring, but unless Axford gets his walks back under control, he's likely to blow more saves this season. He did sport a 3.1 BB/9 in 2011, so hope his 2013 walk rate is closer to 2011 than 2012.

12. Jim Johnson, Bal RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		71	0	68.2	15	41	2	51	0	2.49	1.02	5.37		291
	2013 Projections		64	0	70.0	15	45	3	40	0	2.83	1.07	5.79		253
2013 Outlook: Johnson benefited from the Orioles' record-setting 2012 performance in one-run games; the team managed a 29-9 record in such contests, their .763 winning percentage third-best all-time and tops since 1900, and Johnson as a result notched 51 saves, the ninth-best single-season total in history. So ask yourself: Do you believe the Orioles can repeat? The answer has a bearing on Johnson's stats, as the difference between 40 and 50 saves can be huge for a pitcher who struck out only 41 hitters, a number exceeded by 142 other relievers. Remember, Major League Baseball set a record for strikeouts per nine innings by relievers (8.37), so Johnson's output in the category is well below average. He also, as a result, needs to rely on his defenders to make plays, impacting his ERA/WHIP. That's not to say Johnson can't be a top-10 fantasy closer, but it's why we rank him more conservatively after his No. 5 ranking among pure relievers on the 2012 Player Rater. It's also why we'd shy from him more in points leagues where strikeouts are more heavily weighted.

13. Addison Reed, CWS RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		62	0	55.0	18	54	3	29	4	4.75	1.36	8.84		170
	2013 Projections		62	0	69.0	20	78	4	36	0	3.39	1.16	10.17		265
2013 Outlook: Reed endured a rocky rookie campaign; his 4.75 ERA last season was the second worst among relievers with at least 30 save chances. But don't let that obscure the one big plus: He captured the White Sox's closer role as a 23-year-old and stands to remain in it as long as he's effective. Remember, every pitcher endures adjustments, and Reed's is somewhat obvious: He's too fine with his pitches, leaving a whopping 59 percent of his total offerings in the strike zone, the highest rate among qualified relievers in 2012. He'll need to be more deceptive in his second full season in order to take the next step, but we need to remember that he averaged 12.88 strikeouts per nine innings and 7.76 K's per walk during his minor league career, meaning not only should he be capable, his ceiling might be that of a top-five closer once he is. Reed shouldn't yet be treated like a top-10 fantasy closer (except in dynasty leagues), and perhaps he's worth backing up with a reliable save-getter, but he's also not far off from reaching that stature himself.

14. Sergio Romo, SF RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		69	0	55.1	10	63	4	14	23	1.79	0.85	10.25		210
	2013 Projections		68	0	52.0	9	68	4	30	13	2.60	0.92	11.77		240
2013 Outlook: It took five seasons for the Giants to realize that what they had in Romo was a dominant closer; before last August, they appeared to trust him only as a righty specialist/ROOGY (Right-handed One-Out Guy). During those five years, his 2.20 ERA ranked fifth and 0.88 WHIP third among qualified relievers, yet inexplicably he has averaged 0.85 innings per appearance and faced right-handed batters 66 percent of the time, third highest among active right-handed pitchers. Perhaps the reason is Romo's injury history, coupled with his hefty reliance upon his slider -- he threw the pitch 62 percent of the time in 2012 -- which threatens to further tax his arm. His postseason dominance probably assures him the lion's share of the Giants' saves to enter this season, and as such, on a rate/per-game basis, he's capable of being as valuable a fantasy closer as anyone not named Craig Kimbrel. But the Giants might continue to preserve Romo's health by spotting him out for save opportunities on occasion, and the threat of a DL stint could always loom. Expect big things, but also tread carefully.

15. Greg Holland, KC RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		67	0	67.0	34	91	7	16	9	2.96	1.37	12.22		211
	2013 Projections		57	0	69.0	30	78	3	37	0	3.00	1.25	10.17		256
2013 Outlook: After a two-calendar-year's apprenticeship as a setup man, Holland graduated to the Royals' closer role following the trade-deadline deal of Jonathan Broxton. Holland proved up to the task; he was 16-for-18 in save opportunities with a 1.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11.52 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 26 appearances after taking over the job. What made the difference was an increased reliance upon his slider, which is easily one of the best in the game: He threw it 37 percent of the time last season, recorded 58 of his 91 K's and limited opponents to a .173 batting average with it. Whether that'll eventually tax Holland's arm is a question for a later year; for now, he's at the peak of his game with a closer's role all his own. If you're seeking a bargain save-getter, he's as smart a choice from the lower tiers as anyone, though you must realize he might never be capable of posting a WHIP below 1.10.

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