Complete 2015 Projections

Season:

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
16. Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics49447156621753.285.330.427.757314.1
2015 Projections51260187331823.281.335.447.782349.1
2015 Outlook: After he turned 36 years old in June, Ramirez's power disappeared during the second half of last season. He hit just four home runs in his final 63 games in the second half after putting himself on track for another 20-homer season with 11 long balls in the first half. Rather than push for a multiyear deal in free agency during the winter, Ramirez exercised his side of a mutual $14 million option to remain with the Brewers for 2015. On the health front, a recurring hamstring injury was the primary culprit for Ramirez's lost time in 2014, but he still managed to push his way into 133 games. The red flag in his profile is a diminished walk rate, as Ramirez drew free passes at a four percent clip, the lowest mark of his career as a full-season player. The wear and tear caused by a 162-game season might lead to regular preventative maintenance at this stage of his career, but Ramirez continues to put a lot of balls in play, and the Brewers have limited depth behind him at third base, which should enable his gracefully aging skill set to take another 500 trips to the plate in 2015.
17. Xander Bogaerts, Bos 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics538601246391382.240.297.362.660268.6
2015 Projections561691466461345.255.316.389.705321.6
2015 Outlook: Perhaps it was the small-sample success Bogaerts had during Boston's run through the World Series in 2013 that set such high expectations for the kid in 2014. He became the latest chapter in the book about overdrafting young players based on early success, as Bogaerts finished with a disappointing line overall. The double-digit homer total and 60 runs scored were respectable, but his batting average was below par and he struggled to get on base and drive the ball consistently. He also failed to show much statistical growth as the season went on, as his first- and second-half splits are near mirror images of one another from a rate level. Like Starlin Castro last year, the talent is there and could easily bubble back to the surface with more realistic expectations in 2015.
18. Kris Bryant, ChC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics------------------------
2015 Projections319622356441118.263.367.533.900297.9
2015 Outlook: Bryant enters 2015 atop many prospect rankings, and he should be considered an early favorite for rookie of the year honors in the National League. The Cubs kept Bryant in the minors for all of last season, splitting his time nearly evenly between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. His plate-discipline numbers were nearly identical at the two levels, as he walked in 14.5 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in slightly more than a quarter of them. With raw power at the top of the 20-80 scale, Bryant makes an overwhelming amount of hard contact and possesses the ability to drive the ball to all fields, a tool that he used to swat 43 home runs over 594 plate appearances in 2014. There are still some questions regarding his ability to stick at third base in the long run, but the Cubs have been adamant about giving him a chance to handle the hot corner before moving him to the outfield. Bryant will attempt to secure the starting job at third base during spring training following Luis Valbuena's departure in January, but it's reasonable to believe that he will be an early season call-up if the Cubs elect to wait a few weeks into the season before starting his service clock.
19. Martin Prado, Mia 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics53662125826803.282.321.412.733316.7
2015 Projections57367116338706.286.333.414.747354.9
2015 Outlook: Year 2 of Prado's four-year, $40 million pact with the Diamondbacks was going worse than the first when he was traded to the Yankees for Peter O'Brien in July. In 37 games after the trade, Prado hit more homers (seven) than he did in his first 106, and his .316/.336/.541 line to close out the season in the Bronx was unlike any full-season body of work he's amassed in six full big league campaigns. Prado offers versatility and the ability to make contact reliably, as he's been able to play in at least 125 games for six straight seasons while providing double-digit home runs annually during that span. The Yankees traded him to the Marlins in December as part of a deal to acquire Nathan Eovaldi, putting Prado in his fourth uniform in as many years. With newly acquired second baseman Dee Gordon in the fold in Miami, Prado will serve as the Marlins' regular third baseman. Now 31, he should be capable of piling up plenty of RBI and runs scored with a prominent role in the improving Miami offense.
20. Nick Castellanos, Det 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics533501166361402.259.306.394.700292.5
2015 Projections584671469401393.264.311.408.718337.8
2015 Outlook: The Tigers committed to Castellanos as their every-day third baseman in 2014, and he proved relatively equal to the task, playing in 148 games while providing 11 homers, 50 runs and a surprising number of RBI (66). For what it's worth, his. 259/.306/.394 slash line closely resembled the numbers he posted during his first taste of Double-A during the second half of 2012. Castellanos has been young for his level everywhere he's played in the Tigers' system, and the move back to third base after he spent 2013 in left field with Triple-A Toledo might explain the poor grades he received as a defender last season. As he's turns 23 years old in March, Castellanos still has projection remaining as a hitter, which should enable him to improve upon his 24.2 percent strikeout rate from 2014 and push his power production closer to the 18 home runs he launched for Toledo as a 21-year-old. The Tigers have little to push him on the organizational depth chart, offering up plenty of leash for Castellanos as he begins 2015 as the team's No. 6 or No. 7 hitter.
21. Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics398461856451138.231.312.405.717241.6
2015 Projections436552470471335.245.320.456.777304.7
2015 Outlook: The Pirates moved Alvarez off of the hot corner last season after his defense eroded to the point where he was a regular liability to the team's pitching staff. That Josh Harrison was having a breakout season at the plate and needed a regular defensive position certainly contributed to the decision, but there had long been questions about Alvarez's ability to handle the rigors of third base. In addition to his woes in the field, Alvarez didn't display his typical level of power, slugging a career-low .405 despite improvements to his walk (10.1 percent) and strikeout (25.4 percent) rates. His splits against righties were still acceptable, as he put up a .245/.330/.440 line against them, but his HR-to-FB ratio against righties tumbled from 29.7 percent in 2013 to 17.6 percent last season. Alvarez's batted-ball profile was largely unchanged in 2014, offering a glimmer of hope that he could make a push back toward the 30-homer plateau after reaching that level in 2012 and 2013. A fractured foot cut Alvarez's season short in September, but he was cleared to begin his regular offseason program in December. He's expected to open the year on the larger side of a platoon at first base with Corey Hart.
22. Chase Headley, NYY 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics470551349511227.243.328.372.700273.8
2015 Projections512661761641339.262.353.418.771359.2
2015 Outlook: The switch-hitting Headley was shipped to the Yankees in July, just two years after his 31-homer outburst in 2012. Headley's offensive production lagged throughout the first half of 2014, but it's worth noting that he was returning from surgery to repair a torn meniscus when spring training began. He suffered a right calf strain soon after reporting to Arizona, then knee soreness in early April, then a biceps strain a few weeks later and then hit the disabled list upon aggravating his calf strain in late April. More injuries mounted, as he was hit in the knee by a pitch in June before getting diagnosed with a herniated disc in his back, and while he played through the back injury in the second half, Headley lost time in September after getting hit in the face by a pitch. His overall line was better after the trade -- .262/.371/.398 -- which is hardly surprising, since the sheer volume of injuries he was playing through started to fall, plus he moved out of Petco Park into Yankee Stadium. The Yankees signed Headley to a four-year deal in December, and he could be an undervalued five-category contributor during his first full season in the Bronx with a return to health.
23. Lonnie Chisenhall, Cle 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics47862135939993.280.343.427.770321.7
2015 Projections502641663391053.271.331.432.763332.8
2015 Outlook: In the most extensive playing time that he's received since arriving in the big leagues, Chisenhall put together an acceptable .280/.343/.427 line in 2014. Plus, he reached double-digit home runs for the second time as a big leaguer and drew walks at a career-high 7.3 percent clip. Most of the production came during the first half of the season, when Chisenhall hit .332/.396/.519 (.915 OPS) and swatted nine of his 13 long balls. His strikeout rate soared from 15.1 percent to 23 percent after the All-Star break, and his slugging percentage fell by more than 200 points, raising questions about his ability to hit big-league pitching as an everyday player. One area of improvement last season was Chisenhall's performance against left-handed pitching, as he carried a sub-.450 OPS against southpaws between 2012 and 2013 before making more consistent contact and parlaying a .369 BABIP to a .294/.353/.376 line against them last season. Chisenhall should have a chance to keep the starting job at third base for the Tribe in 2015, but he'll need to avoid another prolonged slump to keep Giovanny Urshela at bay.
24. Brett Lawrie, Oak 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics25927123816490.247.301.421.722153.7
2015 Projections47553145432818.259.315.398.713275.1
2015 Outlook: Injuries once again limited Lawrie's contributions in 2014, as he played in just 70 games for the Blue Jays while back, hamstring and hand ailments put him on the disabled list at various points. When he was on the field, Lawrie put together a .247/.301/.421 line with 12 homers and 38 RBI -- putting him on pace for career bests in both categories. He also took advantage of the hitter-friendly confines of Rogers Centre, hitting .285/.321/.496 in Toronto compared to .213/.285/.353 on the road. The A's acquired Lawrie as part of a blockbuster deal with the Jays in late November, putting him in position to replace Josh Donaldson as their starting third baseman. The aforementioned home-road splits have been consistent throughout his time in the big leagues (career .815 home OPS vs. a .683 road OPS), so there may be reason to lower the ceiling for Lawrie with the move to Oakland. However, at age 25, Lawrie may not be a finished product, and it's reasonable to think that he may be able to provide double-digit homers and steals if he can avoid losing significant time to the disabled list.
25. Trevor Plouffe, Min 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics520691480531092.258.328.423.751337.9
2015 Projections511631767481112.258.326.431.756334
2015 Outlook: Plouffe is now two years removed from that unexpected 24-HR explosion, but that may have just been the marriage of career bests in his fly ball and HR/FB rates. The 14 he has hit in each of the past two seasons paces out to 18 in a full season, though he has struggled to stay healthy and log that full season's worth of games. While Plouffe didn't improve upon his 2013 home run total, his power was closer to that of his 2012 output thanks to 40 doubles, which tied for seventh in baseball. The other six guys played between 153 and 162 games, making his total in just 136 games all the more impressive. Something in between 2013 and 2014 would be fine for his price, but there is also a tinge of upside here.
26. Mike Moustakas, KC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics45745155435741.212.271.361.632210.3
2015 Projections49551165536872.238.293.394.687265.4
2015 Outlook: The past season was filled with ups and downs for Moustakas, who bottomed out with a demotion to Triple-A Omaha in May but peaked during the Royals' run to the World Series, which included his swatting five home runs in the playoffs. Considering that he slugged .350 after the All-Star break and just .296 in September, there was nothing in his regular-season finish that foreshadowed his October heroics. The postseason performance secured his place as the team's starting third baseman to begin 2015 -- perhaps against better judgment, as his slash line dipped across the board for the second straight season. Moustakas has averaged 15.7 home runs per season since 2012, and his excellent defense at third base should carry him to another 500 plate appearances on the larger side of a platoon. At age 26, with nearly 2,000 career plate appearances under his belt, Moustakas is a lifetime .236 hitter, and the lack of progress in his pull-heavy approach offers little reason to believe he will ever fully tap into the potential that made him the No. 2 overall pick of the 2007 draft.
27. Alex Rodriguez, NYY 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics------------------------
2015 Projections4306017494712111.247.329.407.736281.6
2015 Outlook: The next -- and perhaps final -- chapter of the Rodriguez story will begin in 2015, after he missed all of 2014 due to a suspension for his connection to the Biogenesis clinic. When Rodriguez was most recently on the field, in 2013, he had returned from offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip in early August. The results were hardly surprising, as he hit .244/.349/.423 with seven home runs in 44 games, with his best attribute a decent eye at the plate (12.7 percent walk rate). Although the Yankees owe him $61 million, they appear to be moving ahead with the goal of minimizing their reliance on the former star as he begins his age-39 season. They signed Chase Headley to a four-year deal in December, which pushed Rodriguez into a competition for playing time as the team's designated hitter. But Carlos Beltran is coming back from elbow surgery, and it's questionable how much right field he'll be able to play in 2015, which might ultimately squeeze Rodriguez into a part-time role. If injuries befall Beltran or first baseman Mark Teixeira, it's reasonable to think Rodriguez could find a way to collect 400 plate appearances again, but that opportunity is hardly guaranteed.
28. David Freese, LAA 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics462531055381241.260.321.383.704259.5
2015 Projections482571259431211.263.330.394.724287.3
2015 Outlook: After popping 20 home runs in 2012, Freese has hit just 19 in two seasons despite logging 500-plus plate appearances as injuries continue to plague him (his next 150-game season will be his first). The 20 percent HR/FB rate from that 2012 sticks out like a sore thumb; he has been a tick or two above average the last two seasons, but nowhere near that figure. At 32, his body is unlikely to grow more stable, meaning the injury issues just have to be baked into his profile. He is slightly better than league average for a third baseman. His best chance at delivering surplus value beyond that is his presence in the Angels' lineup, which should present him with ample opportunities to drive in runs.
29. Marcus Semien, Oak 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics2313062821703.234.300.372.673122.3
2015 Projections442681153549711.249.335.398.733287.9
2015 Outlook: Semien was a deep-sleeper candidate in 2014, after a huge season in his first tour through the upper minors. He logged a .284/.401/.479 slash line with 19 home runs and 24 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A, which included an eye-catching 98 walks against just 90 strikeouts. Add in that he has played shortstop, second base and third base, and you can see why the excitement was there. Alas, that impressive approach from the minor leagues has yet to surface in the big leagues (22 walks to 92 strikeouts in his 326 PA), and ultimately he was sent back to Triple-A Charlotte in early June and didn't return until rosters expanded in September. The A's acquired him in the offseason, so Billy Beane no doubt sees the upside in this 24-year-old and hopes to extract those minor league skills in a big league setting. He won't start the season with shortstop eligibility, but he will have three positions once he logs enough games to qualify. Temper expectations for the short term, but don't completely forget him after just 85 games as a big leaguer, either.
30. Chris Johnson, Atl 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics582431058231596.263.292.361.653271.4
2015 Projections580481162271524.267.302.379.681296
2015 Outlook: Johnson opened the past season with an opportunity to benefit from a higher-than-expected placement in the Braves' lineup, as manager Fredi Gonzalez penciled him into the cleanup spot for each of the team's first 11 games. That dream quickly became a nightmare, and though he had a few stretches in which he served as the team's No. 5 hitter, more than half of the games Johnson played in 2014 came while batting sixth or seventh. Johnson didn't offer great plate discipline to begin with, and he combined a higher strikeout rate (26 percent) with the lowest walk rate of his career (3.8 percent) while struggling to handle breaking pitches. Besides a back strain in September, there were no reported injuries to blame for the drop-off, which was particularly troubling, as he slugged just .361. The Braves are on the hook to pay him $23.5 million through 2017, so it appears he's locked in as their starting third baseman for now.