Analysis: This game interests me more than perhaps it should. Quietly, the Washington Redskins defense is playing awfully well; like the past few seasons, it doesn't perform fantasy-wise, but over the past month I challenge you to name a defense that's done a better job bottling up both rushing and passing games (granted, a relatively weak schedule has something to do with that). Going the other way, the Atlanta Falcons secondary has become a real subject of concern without Brian Williams; Brent Grimes' crazy athletic interception Monday night notwithstanding, the Falcons secondary is really struggling, including newly acquired former first-round corner Tye Hill, who got benched versus the Saints. I don't think the Redskins have the weapons to take advantage. But this one smells closer than it initially seems.

Fantasy Up: Michael Turner broke out for the first time this season yardage-wise in New Orleans: 151 yards on 20 carries, and several runs where he made nice initial stabs into the defensive line, then bounced his runs to the outside and was able to turn the corner. Sometimes we forget that Turner can really move for a guy listed at 244 pounds. Listen, he's got a touchdown in every game save Week 1 this year, so you can't bench him regardless. And to be honest, I think he has a tougher time against what I think is a more physical Redskins front: Despite bad contain on DeSean Jackson's end-around touchdown two Mondays ago, Andre Carter is actually playing the run really well. It's also interesting that the Falcons use two-tight-end formations on 44 percent of their plays, tops in the NFL, in an effort to relieve Tony Gonzalez of primary blocking duties; Gonzo hasn't blocked well this season, and it's possible this explains some of Turner's relative struggles. But clearly, he's a must-start this and every week. … Clinton Portis also gets some love from me this week, as I have him listed as my No. 17 running back; that's obviously low compared to his reputation, but it's the first time I have him listed inside my top 20 in a few games. The Falcons went through a stretch to begin the year where they didn't look tough against the run, then they clamped down hard on the likes of Matt Forte and Glen Coffee. But the New Orleans Saints ran well against them Monday night. … As I said, I'm concerned about the Falcons against the pass. John Abraham has mostly been invisible since a big Week 1 (there's talk about him being limited by a foot injury, surprise, surprise), and sparkplug middle linebacker Curtis Lofton got shaken up last week and might not be full strength. But oh, Redskins. Can we really rely on you to not make mistakes, and take advantage? I don't think so. The Falcons make an acceptable bye-week defense solution. They did a much better job against Drew Brees in the second half last week, finally coming out of their shell and unleashing some pressure that rattled him for a time.

Fantasy Down: The Sherm Lewis Era began smartly two weeks ago: Jason Campbell to Chris Cooley, basically the same play, twice in a row. Then on the third play, Campbell fumbled the snap and the Philadelphia Eagles recovered (the play was incorrectly blown dead), which should've been Campbell's ninth fumble of the season, most in the NFL. So no, I don't think Campbell takes advantage of what I'm calling a nice potential matchup. Santana Moss could break one, of course, because Santana Moss can always break one. … It was interesting to see the Redskins try to mix things up by trying Albert Haynesworth at defensive end in some looks two weeks ago. It didn't seem to work, but Haynesworth has been a disruptor overall for the Skins. … With Cooley out for another few weeks, Fred Davis is getting some fantasy love. He's got a decent chance to be the Redskins' top target Sunday, and it's not impossible he scores a touchdown. But he's a liability as a blocker, which could limit the number of snaps he sees.

Analysis: A few days after I took abuse for having the temerity to doubt the "No. 1 ranked" Arizona Cardinals run defense, the Carolina Panthers scorched said defense for 270 rushing yards. (Surprise! Now it's the "No. 8 ranked" Cardinals run defense.) This is what often happens as a result of back-of-the-envelope fantasy analysis. It's the same knuckleheadedness that had folks loving the Seattle Seahawks' passing game against the "No. 32 ranked" Cardinals pass defense a few weeks ago. When you watch these games, you see that the Cardinals aren't a dominant run-stuffing team, and they're not utterly inept against the pass. It's also the same knuckleheadedness that has everyone scrambling in October and early November to announce they know who has plum fantasy playoff matchups. Literally six days ago, many were proclaiming the Cardinals a run defense you absolutely didn't want your stud rusher facing in mid-December. How's that look now?

Fantasy Up: I also love this notion that with his 26-carry, 90-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Browns last week, Matt Forte is an ideal "sell high." I mean, yes, if you're playing in the Head Wound Harry fantasy league, sure, I'm sure you can get fair value for Forte after one nice game against an inferior opponent. But presumably an even-halfway-savvy fantasy player will want to see Forte do it again. And maybe again. (The irony Sunday was that the Chicago Bears did start the game force-feeding Forte in the red zone, three straight times at one point in the first quarter, but he couldn't score, and it resulted in three straight field goals.) Listen, the truth of the matter is that Forte is having a rather shockingly disappointing fantasy season (he's on pace for 46 fewer carries, 305 fewer rushing yards, 55 fewer receiving yards, and five fewer touchdowns), but he's still No. 9 in the league in touches from scrimmage per game, and 12th in yards from scrimmage per game. As you saw last weekend, the touchdowns come and go. What you should care about most is Forte's usage, and his usage is good. I'm not expecting miracles versus the Cardinals this week, because the Bears don't have the Panthers' offensive line. But I don't think you can deal him, or sit him, with his present stat line, unless you're willing to accept nickels on the dollar. … Kurt Warner was awful against the Panthers, and his receivers did him no favors by popping two balls into the air for easy picks. But six turnovers are six turnovers, and enough jokes have been made about how Warner had an out-of-body experience and believed he was Jake Delhomme. His glaring issue right now is difficulty finding open receivers downfield, a hallmark of the Cardinals offense. (This is not a team that can have Tim Hightower be its leading receiver.) Amazingly, this team's longest offensive touchdown so far in '09 covered 26 yards. Danieal Manning did have a spectacular interception of Derek Anderson last week, but in general the Bears secondary continues to be ripe for the taking. No doubt, Lovie Smith with send two defensive backs Larry Fitzgerald's way and likely play off of everyone else, again hoping to keep receivers in front of them. I have faith Warner will bounce back, though. … Devin Hester seems to be separating himself from the wide receiving crowd in Chicago. He almost scored a 35-yard touchdown last week on a short garbage-time reception, but was barely stopped. (Instead Forte was stuffed twice in a row on the goal line, and denied a third score.)

Fantasy Down: Greg Olsen got another red zone target last week, yet wound up with just three catches for 40 yards; he also limped off the field at one point, but did return. I'm convinced there'll be some days where Olsen helps, but you'll be forgiven for being tired of waiting. … What is it about the Bears offense? Either they can't run-block but do a decent job protecting Jay Cutler (most weeks), or they run-block well but Cutler's under siege (last week). The Cleveland Browns threw the house Cutler's way, and connected with him far too often. You can bet the Cardinals were watching. I admire the fact that Cutler was more restrained and took fewer chances in the red zone, probably because against the Browns he figured there'd always be other chances. But I have a funky feeling about using him this week. … Before the Cards went no-huddle midway through the second quarter, they ran it eight times and passed it 11, giving the impression that they were trying (insofar as they are capable) to establish the run. That went away when the score reached 28-7, and Beanie Wells just wasn't on the field much in the no-huddle, crushing his fantasy day. I still think he eventually winds up the feature back this year. (I liked the fact that on their first drive, in Panthers territory, the Cardinals had a fourth-and-1 and went for it, giving Wells a misdirection pitch which he converted easily.) But there definitely is a question of how much that's really worth in this offense. … I doubted the Bears defense big-time last week even against the execrable Browns offense, simply because I was scared of what the Cincinnati Bengals did two weeks ago. That was a bad call. I'm not in love with using either defense here, though; on the Bears side, their weakness (secondary) matches up poorly with the Cardinals strength (throwing), and on the Cardinals' side, well, they're talented but inconsistent, and you can make big plays on them running and throwing. … Anquan Boldin says he'll try to play again this week. I don't think I'm taking the chance on him.

Analysis: Well, I got it half right. I thought Baltimore Ravens-Denver Broncos would be a two-way shootout, but it turned out only the Ravens offense showed up. Having Jared Gaither back from his scary neck injury really helps, and Willis McGahee seems no more than a first-month afterthought, as even in a garbage-time possession, Rice got a red zone carry and scored his touchdown that way. (It's true that Le'Ron McClain also got a look or two in close, but McGahee is more of a threat to Rice.) More importantly, though, the defense got aggressive again, albeit against an offense that didn't seem at all inclined to take shots down the field. Ed Reed unloaded on Knowshon Moreno on an early screen causing a fumble, the Ravens blitzed as much as I can remember this year, and suddenly going into Cincinnati for a rematch with the Bengals doesn't seem so impossible.

Fantasy Up: No, it's not impossible, but you can take it to the bank that Carson Palmer won't be as passive as Kyle Orton was last week. He's coming off a five-touchdown game two weeks ago, and though he hasn't exceeded 300 yards passing this year, he did hit 271 in Baltimore a few weeks back. Will he get pressure? If Ravens defensive coordinator Greg Mattison learned the lessons of last week (mix things up at the line, create as much pre-snap confusion as possible), yes. But the Bengals have a couple tall, athletic receivers (Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry) who should give the Ravens corners big-time problems. … For all the talk in September about how the rejuvenated Cincinnati Bengals secondary was now officially poison on quarterbacks and No. 1 receivers, that storyline has dissipated a bit after Matt Schaub ripped them apart, and Jay Cutler racked up some garbage-time yards (albeit with three interceptions). This is my way of saying: I'm not letting Joe Flacco's bad game the last time these teams met (22-of-31 for 186 yards, a score and two picks) scare me out of using him. It's true that last week Flacco looked like the 2008 version of himself, rarely winging it downfield. It's also true that Leon Hall is a very good player. But Flacco still has my trust. Except when a shotgun snap accidentally slaps into Todd Heap's leg in the red zone. Oops. … You'll hear lots about how Cedric Benson was the first guy in 40 games to rush for 100 yards on this Ravens defense. You won't hear as much about the fact that Adrian Peterson did it the very next week. Anyway, use Benson every week, regardless of matchup.

Fantasy Down: Have I sent mixed messages about the startability of the Ravens defense in the past 400 words? I'm probably benching them. They're a high-risk, high-reward unit right now: In Week 8, at least, they seemed to decide that if they were going to go down, they'd go down blitzing, and it worked. So if things break right, they can shower you with turnovers and touchdowns. But if they go wrong, oy, it can be bad. … Are we about to view a Laveranues Coles renaissance? Well, our statistical projections have him down for four catches for 40 yards and (importantly) a touchdown. I think it's mighty brutal to project touchdowns on a weekly basis; either you always give a TD to the same players, or you randomly toss one in a different direction, and risk having Coles (he of the 16 catches in seven games) rated as your No. 27 receiver of the week, which would make him startable in a lot of leagues. While it's possible Coles scores against this sometimes-overmatched Ravens secondary, I wouldn't go benching Mike Sims-Walker for him (as our projections indicate you should). I mean, Coles has five red-zone looks all year (Andre Caldwell has six).

Analysis: Perhaps fantasy's most intense Week 9 question centers on Steve Slaton, who was benched three touches into Sunday's win over Buffalo for losing his fifth fumble in eight games. As you know by now, Ryan Moats filled in admirably (23 carries, 126 yards, three touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills' weak run defense). Now Gary Kubiak confirms that Moats earned more playing time, though he won't announce a starter. In years past, the Indianapolis Colts were a prime matchup for a fantasy rusher. But while this year's version in Indy has suffered a few weak moments (Frank Gore's long run Sunday, Steven Jackson's big yardage day in Week 7), the offense is usually so far ahead that it's tough for opponents to stay with the run. Given the jumble in the Houston backfield, I think you have to avoid all three of these guys (including Chris Brown) until we see more.

Fantasy Up: Aside from the sun literally being in Dallas Clark's eyes on a potential touchdown pass early in last week's squeaker over the San Francisco 49ers, there probably isn't anything wrong with the Colts' passing game that won't get remedied this week. Mario Williams' lingering shoulder injury has put a crimp in his sack artistry (he has three, which puts him on a pace for half his '08 total), and nobody else on that Texans defensive line has shown he can consistently get to the quarterback. That was how the Niners played Peyton Manning in Week 8: Throw as many people at the offensive backfield as necessary and it showed, as Manning was sacked three times (he'd only been sacked twice the entire season before that). I just don't think the Houston Texans create those kinds of problems, and Reggie Wayne should be terrific again. … Andre Johnson got 10 targets in Buffalo, so don't worry about his "mere" 63 yards and no scores. Will there be more pressure on AJ with Owen Daniels out? Sure. But he already sees a safety roll his way on nearly every play. … You know, I'm going to keep using the Colts defense without hesitation. Does it have elite personnel all over the field? I don't think so, and now corner Marlin Jackson is out for the season with a torn ACL. But the Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis combination is really disruptive (Freeney now has at least one sack in eight straight games), I like how well they've weathered injuries in their secondary by plugging in kids, and despite what looks like kind of a light rotation of defensive tackles, nobody is putting the kind of 25-carry, 180-yard running performance on them that used to happen regularly in previous seasons.

Fantasy Down: If there's ever a week you consider benching Matt Schaub for another very good option, this might be it. The Colts have that nasty pass rush and a very deep defensive secondary, and have been harder on fantasy quarterbacks than any defense in the league over the past month. I'm not saying Johnson wouldn't be favored to win a one-on-one battle with rookies like Jerraud Powers and/or Jacob Lacey. I'm just saying I don't expect to see those guys have to take AJ on one-on-one very often. … With Daniels out, you'd have to say Kevin Walter gets first crack at being Schaub's No. 2 option. He did make a very nice play on a fourth-quarter slant that set up a Moats touchdown run, and got an end-around called for him, too. Walter has more upside than he did a week ago, and should probably be owned in most leagues, but can I definitively say you should race right out and start him this week? I cannot. … Joseph Addai did get fantasy points for that lefty halfback-option pass to Wayne on Sunday, but in all it was a pretty disappointing day (20 carries, 62 yards) against what had been an increasingly generous 49ers run defense. The Texans linebackers are absolutely stuffing the run right now. Addai may once again have to deal with Donald Brown, who as of this writing hasn't yet been listed on a Colts injury report, which may mean that his shoulder will allow him to play. Obviously, there's always a chance Addai gets to pop in a shorty. But I don't see how his prospects are much better this week than his performance was last week.

Analysis: The Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets last week, but I wouldn't say it was the greatest coaching game of Tony Sparano's life. After putting great amounts of pressure on Mark Sanchez in the first half, the Fish seemed to call off the dogs in the second. On the penultimate fourth-quarter fourth-down conversion to Dustin Keller, Sanchez was way too comfortable, with three pass-rushers coming after him. Finally, at the end of that last drive, the heat arrived again (in the form of Randy Starks). And I still have no idea why the Dolphins went for 2 while winning by 11 points. That was a gaffe that could've killed them. Remembering the timeout mistakes he made in Week 8 against the New Orleans Saints, I'm starting to think Sparano isn't the best in-game guy in the league.

Fantasy Up: So the way the Dolphins stay close in this one is with heat. When they've beaten Tom Brady in the past, it's been by beating him up, especially with Jason Taylor. And with two rookie corners and one rookie safety, they can't afford to give Brady time. That makes for a risky strategy, but it's the one they must pursue to try to stay with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the boys. Sit back, and you're probably going to get eaten alive. … One subplot we'll hear lots about is that it's a reunion of the game where the Wildcat first made its appearance (or, for fans of the old single-wing, its comeback). Ronnie Brown had his huge game in New England last year, and the rest is direct-snap history. Of course, the Patriots did a far better job shutting down Brown in the teams' second meeting of '08 (10 carries, 37 yards), and the Jets sniffed out and shut down the Wildcat last week (11 carries, 27 yards). Listen, let's not go crazy here: On average, the Dolphins run nine Wildcat plays per game. That's significant, and if it's successful, that number can go a lot higher. The challenge in stopping the Wildcat involves dealing with what amounts to an extra blocker, but because most everything happens in an enclosed space, it largely comes down to tackling. The Jets tackled last week. They didn't in Week 5. I think Brown is a great bet to score a touchdown most weeks, Wildcat or no, and the Dolphins have the second most run-intensive offense in the league, behind only the Jets. (Right now, those are the only two NFL teams who've run more than they've thrown.) Start him. … That said, I think you also use the New England Patriots defense. I'm sure the Dolphins will try some other offensive wrinkle, but I really don't think they're going to have a ton of success with the Wildcat. The Patriots have far more defensive speed now, especially with Brandon Meriweather making plays. (His interception for a touchdown two weeks ago against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the team's first defensive TD in 24 games.) I like the Dolphins' O-line a lot, but I just don't trust Chad Henne to keep New England honest. By the way, it's interesting to note how some veterans are gradually being squeezed out in this defense. Adalius Thomas did play versus the Buccaneers, but not particularly well, and he was spelled a lot. Shawn Springs was barely on the field.

Fantasy Down: I wouldn't use the Dolphins' defense here, and I just groused about their using so many rookies in the defensive secondary, but let's give a shout to Vontae Davis, who's just a huge hitter for a cornerback. Sure, he made a mistake early in the Jets game while going for an interception, but if he keeps his head on straight (reportedly not always the case during his college days), he could wind up being really good. … You don't need another Laurence Maroney rant, do you? Watching that game in London, as Maroney scored a garbage-time 1-yarder while up 28-7, I kept thinking, "Oh great, now people are going to think Maroney played well." He didn't. A week after his supposed breakout in the snow against Tennessee, he was right back to his hesitating, dancing self. Will he luck into the occasional score? Sure. But he had 13 carries for 43 yards against Tampa. That's all I can say about that. By the way, Sammy Morris should be able to return from his knee injury in Week 11. So much for the Maroney gravy train. … Ted Ginn Jr. makes sense in leagues that count return yardage, but that's it. Don't expect his kickoff-return heroics from Week 8 to change the way the Dolphins view him on offense. He won't play many snaps. … Brady threw his first pick in 184 throws against the Bucs. Shame on him.

Analysis: While a letdown after Favre Bowl II is possible, I'm not betting on it. It's a mistake to assume that a young and unsuccessful team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has no chance to turn things around as the season wears on; the offensive line isn't awful, and there are some young players on defense who don't stink. But they're on their fifth quarterback (Josh Freeman) during their current 11-game losing streak, and he's a rookie. They mostly don't tackle well, and a guy like Geno Hayes, who can tackle, can't cover (as he showed while trying to stay with Benjamin Watson in Week 7). They don't pressure the quarterback much, which puts too much weight on the secondary's shoulders. And they don't play as much two-deep safety as they used to, meaning if things go wrong, they're subject to allowing big passes. This is a bad recipe against the Green Bay Packers' offense.

Fantasy Up: As I wrote in this week's Big Rotowski, I've relented on Aaron Rodgers. I mean, either way I was going to endorse him as a good start against a Bucs defense that's been seventh-worst against fantasy quarterbacks the past five weeks. But the fact that Rodgers will get Chad Clifton back at left tackle (and possibly Mark Tauscher at right tackle) this week helps a lot, and also I just don't know that Tampa can generate the pressure they need to give Rodgers fits, the way the Minnesota Vikings did last week, when Rodgers was hit on five of his first 11 drop-backs and suffered four sacks in the first half. … Really, there's little reason not to use all your Packers skill players. Ryan Grant fumbled on the game's second play Sunday (though it was ruled that his forward progress was stopped), and overall he managed just 30 yards on 10 carries. But this game stacks up like Week 7 against the Cleveland Browns, in which the Pack didn't have tons of success running early but kept at it, and Grant wound up with 148 yards on 27 carries. Greg Jennings took a step forward scoring that sweet one-handed touchdown Sunday and picking up slack after Donald Driver suffered a stinger; each guy figures to get enough looks to be worth using here, though hopefully they score early, because eventually the dogs may be called off. … And the Packers' defense is, almost by process of elimination, my top-rated unit for the week, since it's going against a rookie quarterback in his first start. After all the 3-4 hoopla this summer, it was interesting to see the Pack run a 4-3 for a lot of the game versus Minnesota. In the second half against the Vikings, it became clear that against better O-lines, they're really going to have to rush more than four to get heat on a quarterback. This seems to be a constant defensive theme through the NFL these days: Pressure wins out more often than not. Of course, pressure can also get you killed with big plays. Not this week in Tampa, though.

Fantasy Down: Freeman's first regular-season NFL snap, down 35-7 in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots? Sack. D'oh! … Antonio Bryant made a nice catch-and-run torching Patriots rookie corner Darius Butler for the Bucs' lone score in Week 7, a good indication that his knee is feeling well and that he'll probably see a lot of one-on-one coverage for as long as defenses don't really respect the Tampa passing game. If Freeman surprises by being readier than he looked two weeks ago, Bryant would be the prime beneficiary. … The Packers have played exceedingly well against the run over the past month, including yeoman's work through most of the game versus Adrian Peterson on Sunday, until AP broke that short screen for a huge fourth-quarter gain. You don't love it when the Packers have their opponent stopped and Johnny Jolly is called for head-butting Chester Taylor way after the play is over, giving Minnesota a first down. But still. Cadillac Williams can't come recommended this week. … Did anyone else notice that London fans seem to cheer loudest on punt returns?

Analysis: What a bizarre story coming out of Jacksonville this week. After a game in which Maurice Jones-Drew had only eight carries but 177 yards and two touchdowns, Jack Del Rio told the media that the coaching staff called plenty more runs, but that David Garrard kept calling audibles when he saw the Tennessee Titans' defense. Going forward, Del Rio says, Garrard won't be allowed to audible. Wow. Now, on the face of it, this seems wise: MJD is your best player; get the ball in his hands no matter what the defense looks like. But why are you telling the public this? It makes Garrard look like an automaton and something of an incompetent, despite the fact that all Garrard is doing is comparing the defense to what he's been told in film study and checking out of "bad plays" based on how he's been prepared for the game. To me, making this public is an act of desperation for Del Rio, who has to know he's on extremely thin ice. Anyway, in this game, MJD will get it 20-plus times.

Fantasy Up: Dwayne Bowe is an every-week starter in most leagues, but he's so frustrating to watch sometimes. Two weeks ago, he's wide open on the Chargers' 10-yard line, Matt Cassel hits him square in the paws, and he drops a would-be touchdown. Argh. But on the same drive, Bowe then makes a spectacular end-zone grab on fourth-and-1. You take the bad with the good, I guess. Cassel will continue to make Bowe a top-20 guy in terms of wide receiver targets. … All those fantasy owners who were so deeply offended that I wasn't giving Mike Sims-Walker enough respect in my year-end ranks got awfully quiet as of Monday morning. Listen, he's a good player on a bad team. He's going to have days like last Sunday (three targets, two catches, nine yards). That doesn't mean you turn around and refuse to start him, despite the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have tightened up against the pass in their past couple of outings. It just means that he has no business being near anyone's top 10 receivers.

Fantasy Down: Jamaal Charles gets the start here for the suspended Larry Johnson, which makes it likely that Cassel will throw more passes, since Charles is a weapon in the screen game. If you're desperate, I guess you can use Charles (it's not like Chris Johnson just took the Jacksonville Jaguars behind the woodshed or anything), but remember that he's fumble-prone and that Dantrell Savage has a chance to steal goal-line carries, should any occur. … Garrard was awful Sunday, and my picking him as my No. 7 quarterback last week was a dreadful call. No more. I was seduced by the siren's song of the Titans' terrible pass defense, but that was counterbalanced by some desperate and not-very-heady play by Garrard. He just kept throwing it to double-covered receivers. (To be fair, on one of his interceptions, the umpire was in Torry Holt's way, which led to a Roderick Hood pick.) … Cassel is somewhat more tempting, but only somewhat. Two weeks ago, when a pass ricocheted off Sean Ryan's hands and was intercepted, it was Cassel's first pick in 152 passes, which is testament both to his steady play and to the fact that the Chiefs are almost exactly the opposite of what I thought they'd be before the season started: staid, conservative and not swashbuckling in the slightest. And that's why I can't recommend using Cassel. He's averaging 5.3 yards per attempt (the lowest among any starting NFL quarterback). Wow. And no, the acquisition of Chris Chambers doesn't make Cassel any more enticing.

Analysis: So the Detroit Lions aren't good. But are the Seattle Seahawks really that much better? At full strength, of course they are. But they're nowhere near full strength. A bad offensive line and a bad secondary make a bad combination in Seattle. It tends to create big plays for the opposition going both ways, which is why I can't get behind another outing like the Hawks had last month against the Jaguars (a 41-0 drubbing). Yes, the Lions are at least as bad as Seattle in the secondary. No, they don't have the pass rush that teams like the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys do. But they'll probably finally get Calvin Johnson back (though realize this is a late game, and there are still mixed signals about whether Megatron will be active), I thought William James and Phillip Buchanon did an OK job versus the St. Louis Rams last week, and if I had to choose an O-line in this game, it'd be Detroit's. Of course, I think the Seahawks win, but will this be a fantasy weenie-roast for Seattle's skill players and defense?

Fantasy Up: One place where the Seahawks have been statistically steady is versus the run, which means this is not an ideal matchup on the ground for Kevin Smith. I think Colin Cole has been a steady addition to the middle of the line, and Aaron Curry is as nasty a tackler as advertised. But Smith is very active in the receiving game (24 catches this year, well ahead of his rookie pace and tied for sixth in the NFL). The Lions did send mixed messages this week about whether Maurice Morris will cannibalize more of Smith's work after getting 14 carries to Smith's 16 last week. But I tend to believe most of that happened because Smith tweaked his shoulder again, and that he'll still be the workhorse. As such, I think you can use him Sunday, though there's risk. … Nate Burleson got 12 targets to T.J. Houshmandzadeh's six on Sunday, causing Housh to scream at his quarterback and coaches to get him the ball. So what if only two of those 12 Burleson targets came in the first half? With this Seattle team, there's gonna be some garbage time, and Burleson is excelling in it. Deion Branch's touchdown notwithstanding last weekend, Burleson is the big-play guy here, and he's the one I prefer at the moment. … It's too bad I'm not a bigger fan of Julius Jones, because running back is where the Lions consistently give up the big fantasy points. In fact, in a pinch, Jones'll do. My hesitation about Jones comes from the fact that Burleson is taking over punt-return duties from Justin Forsett (another reason to use Burleson in return-yard leagues), which, in light of Edgerrin James' release, seems to indicate a bigger role for Forsett in the offense. Both Forsett and Louis Rankin figure to steal touches from Jones if (or as soon as) he struggles.

Fantasy Down: I know, I know, I didn't believe in a tottering Chicago Bears defense when they hosted the awful Cleveland Browns offense last weekend, and it bit me. Haven't I learned my lesson? Shouldn't I be telling you to start the Seahawks' defense without reservation? Maybe I should. I'm in the minority here. But I think the Lions' passing offense is leagues better than the Browns', first of all, and the Browns don't have a guy nicknamed Megatron playing for them. Eventually Marcus Trufant will get healthy and stabilize the Seattle secondary, but for now, he's a shadow of himself; he looked sick getting three pass interference calls versus the Cowboys. Sure, Matthew Stafford will face pressure. Yes, if I'm wrong about the Seahawks offense and Seattle scores a bunch, it'll be curtains for the Lions. I dunno; something just smells fishy to me here. The holes in the Seahawks defense just scare me too much. (But again, in the interest of full disclosure, that's what I said about the Bears last week.) … Matt Hasselbeck is a good quarterback when he has time: a system player who needs to be bang-bang with throws. He's not at his best, I think, when he has to improvise play after play. But that's what he's being forced to do right now, and when he's been under pressure in the past two games (because of his O-line troubles) he's made bad decisions and bad throws. If I'm the Seahawks here, I have to run the ball down the Lions' throat, and pass second. I understand why others are rating Hass so highly, purely as a matchup play. But I remember their doing the same when the Arizona Cardinals came to town a few weeks ago. The Seahawks' offense is crumbling from the inside out. I just can't trust it until Damion McIntosh isn't starting at left tackle.

Analysis: Here's one area in which I won't relent: The New Orleans Saints' defense isn't really that good. Nobody who watched the Monday night game versus the Atlanta Falcons could have been left with a sense that this is a dominant, championship-style defense. Now, that doesn't mean the Saints can't win the Super Bowl (although I don't think they will), because all the Saints' D has to be is average and opportunistic as long is it's attached to that phenomenal offense. And against Jake Delhomme, I don't see how you bet against this New Orleans winning streak; I have the Saints' defense as my No. 3 unit this weekend. But eventually, the faucet that's granting this unit hot-and-cold running turnovers is going to go dry. I mean, no doubt Darren Sharper always has had good ball skills, but how many times can a defense bend this much and then be in the perfect place at the perfect time? Not only that, but did you see Sports Illustrated's picture of Sharper's "touchdown" in Miami, where he's already fumbling the ball on the 2-yard line? I mean, the refs reviewed the play and still didn't overturn it. Dude's living right.

Fantasy Up: One key difference the past two weeks has been Sedrick Ellis missing games with a knee injury. The Miami Dolphins (notably Ricky Williams) ran wild on the Saints in Week 7, and Michael Turner went nutty in Week 8. Ellis isn't expected to play Sunday, either, which is great news for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Carolina Panthers' ground game is returning to '08 form, having pounded the Arizona Cardinals into submission in Week 8 with 270 rush yards. On the opening, 15-play drive, the Cardinals essentially had safety Adrian Wilson playing as an additional middle linebacker, and it didn't matter -- Williams and Stewart pounded the ball, with Stewart scoring a short touchdown. Then Williams reeled off a 77-yarder at the end of the first quarter, with Stewart cleaning up another shorty. No, Stewart's two TDs don't signal some kind of sea change; as I've been writing all season, Williams is going to get carries 2-to-1 over Stewart, but there's no bias when it comes to short yardage. The Panthers will mix it up. … Pierre Thomas underwent a fantasy resurgence Monday night, showing great wiggle on his first touchdown run that a guy like Mike Bell just doesn't have (of course, Chevis Jackson blew a tackle on the play, or it would have been a 1-yard gain). More exciting for Thomas owners were two close-in possessions, one at the end of the second quarter and one in the fourth quarter. On a first-and-goal from the Falcons' 4, Bell was nowhere to be found, and Thomas got the first carry; he gained 3 yards, and then Reggie Bush cleaned up with a 1-yard score. Then in a crucial moment late in the game, Thomas got a 1-yard touchdown reception. Nice. Both Thomas and Bell had potentially crushing fourth-quarter fumbles, but in a good matchup against the Panthers, I'm back to believing much more in Thomas. … See that? Steve Smith doesn't need 100 targets to have value. All he needs is an overly aggressive Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie guarding him. Beautiful little fake smoke-route for Smith, a pump from Delhomme, and boom, a 50-yard touchdown pass.

Fantasy Down: Lance Moore enthusiasts presumably have reined in their expectations, as Moore caught two passes for 11 yards Monday, giving him 13 catches for 146 yards on the year (78 of which came in one game). Add to that a sprained ankle, and you understand why Moore isn't a fantasy option. Devery Henderson isn't tons better fantasy-wise, but at least he is a big-play threat and is on the field in two-receiver sets. … Delhomme didn't make mistakes against the Cardinals because the running game was so strong; he had to throw the ball only 14 times all game. I do think there's a potential for overhype here ("The biggest interception artist in the NFL against the most opportunistic defense in existence!"), and that kind of thing usually winds up going the other way. But that doesn't mean I'd feel comfortable starting Delhomme. Not at all.

Analysis: Let me tell you what my gut says. My gut says the San Diego Chargers are s-o-f-t soft. My gut says that dismembering the Kansas City Chiefs and barely hanging on against the Oakland Raiders doesn't mean much. And my gut says the New York Giants should be able to steamroll the Chargers with their ground game. But I also believe the Chargers can work the deep middle of the field as well as any offense in the NFL, and that's exactly where the Giants are struggling; C.C. Brown looks as lost in a Giants uniform as he did with the Houston Texans, and it really looks like every time a team throws a deep ball on them, it's a "Keystone Kops" routine back there (unless it's Corey Webster, who's playing well). Let's call this one a high-scoring Giants win, in which the New York running game and the San Diego passing game are strong.

Fantasy Up: Want to know what kind of season it's been for Brandon Jacobs owners? On Sunday, down 33-10 in the third quarter, the Giants recover a kickoff return fumble and give it to Jacobs five straight times. He gets 13 tough yards on those plays, and on the last of them, he's tackled on the Philly 1. But he's gassed. Ahmad Bradshaw comes in. One-yard score. Argh. Overall, I thought Jacobs played one of his best games of '09 on Sunday, and against a very difficult opponent. Sure, the Chargers tightened up the run defense against the Little Sisters of the Poor in two of their past three games, but I have to believe this is a contest in which the Giants' O-line is set to pin its ears back and mash someone. … The Giants have allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing receivers in the past three weeks. Vincent Jackson is pretty darn consistent for a deep threat, and this makes Week 9 a great matchup for him. It's also worth noting that the Chargers finally realized what the rest of us have been saying for a couple of years: Chris Chambers can't play anymore. They cut Chambers and installed Malcom Floyd in the starting lineup. Floyd still will be only the fourth option in the San Diego offense, so tempter your enthusiasm, but he is a terrific end zone guy. … I mean, I guess you can keep using the Giants' defense, even though (as I've mentioned) it has been shellacked by big plays lately. It's worth noting, though, that this unit could have had a defensive touchdown after a Donovan McNabb fumble last week, but Fred Robbins was ruled to have given Osi Umenyiora a forward lateral on the return.

Fantasy Down: I'm not going overboard on Eli Manning for playing poorly against a strong, blitzing Philadelphia Eagles defense on the road; that part was expected. But it's hard not to look at the preponderance of evidence over the past three weeks and worry about Manning. I think he's a better quarterback than people currently are giving him credit for, and as I wrote last week, it's reductive to say, "Oh, he's just bad in the second half." That said, if I'm the Giants, I need to build up some confidence in my offense heading into a bye, and I'm going to do that on the ground. I think Manning will have the ball taken out of his hands somewhat here, which also makes me not as interested as I've been lately in Steve Smith. Smith did have eight receptions versus the Eagles, but that effort showed you how tough it is for him to consistently deliver big fantasy games; he's the dink-and-dunk option, not an end zone guy. … Mario Manningham didn't play Sunday because of a shoulder he injured in practice last week, and Hakeem Nicks started in his place. Nicks contributed his regular four-catch, 53-yard line, the difference being that he didn't score a touchdown. (How dare he!) Manningham figures to be questionable again for Sunday's game, but I probably would not use either of the Giants' split-end candidates regardless. … I wrote last week that the thing I was surest of for Week 8 was that LaDainian Tomlinson would score a touchdown, because of the embarrassing display in Kansas City in Week 7. Sure enough, on their first drive, right after a bomb to Floyd, the Chargers installed Tomlinson as their Wildcat quarterback, and he ran one in from 6 yards out. Add a two-minute-drill score at the end of the first half, and you might be tempted to imagine Tomlinson is back. Don't do it. I'm telling you, if a Martian landed and watched a Chargers game (because of his inherent love of all things electrical), he'd say, "Boy, that Darren Sproles sure looks like the better player." I mean, honestly, it's not even close. Tomlinson doesn't have half the burst Sproles does. But of course, Tomlinson is the superstar and Sproles is the backup, so the former gets 18 carries and the latter gets five. Hey, maybe Sproles really would get hurt if he had to be a full-time back. At some point, though, it would be smart for the Chargers to find out.

Analysis: You know how some fantasy folks have been whining about people like me who keep saying Chris Johnson is a great fantasy player? They say Johnson (the NFL's leading rusher) has skewed stats: He basically now has two good games and otherwise is mediocre, and therefore he isn't someone you can rely on in a fantasy league. (I think that's patently absurd, but for the moment, that's not my point.) Well, how about the other running back in this game? Frank Gore missed a couple of starts, but he has 364 yards on 65 carries, giving him 5.6 yards per carry, the third best rate in the NFL. However, realize this: Gore has touchdown runs of 79, 80 and (in Week 8 versus the Colts) 64 yards. That's three carries for 223 yards. That means on his other 62 carries, he has 141 yards, or 2.3 yards per carry. Somehow, though, Gore escapes the wrath of most Johnson whiners. (Also, Gore is just 25th in the league in touches-from-scrimmage per game, compared to 11th for Johnson. But frankly, I don't care what they say. I'd start Johnson and Gore every week.)

Fantasy Up: San Francisco 49ers left tackle Joe Staley is out six weeks after spraining ligaments in his knee versus the Indianapolis Colts, meaning the team has lost both its starting tackles (Tony Pashos is out for the season with a fractured shoulder blade) in two weeks. That's scary news for Alex Smith, but it also could be damaging for tight end Vernon Davis, who, other than the running backs, is about the only interesting fantasy commodity in this game. Davis has been a beast in the red zone and is up to seven touchdowns already in '09, although the Niners probably could have done without his "posing for pictures" touchdown celebration in Week 8, wherein Davis stood stock still, and Josh Morgan and others pretended to click his photo (leading to a 15-yard penalty). But there's a chance that if Barry Sims (last seen getting eaten alive as a Raider) struggles on Smith's blind side, Davis might have to stay in to block. That doesn't mean you bench him, however. It just means: Root for Sims. … I also think you can start the 49ers' defense, although I'm not ready to call it elite, even against the often-mistake-prone Tennessee Titans offense. Shawntae Spencer surprised me with some pretty nice coverage on Reggie Wayne (he saved a touchdown with a good play on a deep post), and while Nate Clements is out for a couple of months after breaking his shoulder blade, Clements wasn't starting anyway (quite a comedown for one of the league's highest-paid corners). But listen, Peyton Manning had receivers open last week. He just missed them. I liked that the Niners didn't sit back and take it from the Colts; they zone-blitzed a lot, sending defensive backs at Manning come hell or high water. If it worked against the league MVP, you have to believe it'll work pretty well against Vince Young. But Chris Johnson scares me.

Fantasy Down: Can you believe the 49ers ran 36 passing plays and 18 rushing plays versus the Colts? Or that they were leading on the scoreboard almost the entire day while they did it? This is favorable for Smith, who looked especially good running the no-huddle, but realize that he also can be his own worst enemy, as he was on an inaccurate pass to Michael Crabtree that Crabtree popped up in the air, resulting in an easy Bob Sanders interception. Certainly, the Titans were supposed to be a joke of a matchup for David Garrard and the Jags on Sunday, but it didn't exactly work out that way. I guess you can use Smith in a bye-related pinch, but I can't believe the 49ers will throw as much again this week. … Vince Young didn't have to do much thanks to Johnson's game-long pyrotechnics last week, but I did think it was interesting how frequently the Titans called VY's number on run plays in the first few series. All told, Young had 12 carries for 30 yards, with an 8-yard scamper as his longest. But if he stays healthy and keeps running that much, I think we'll see him break a few 30-yarders. Of course, he passed only 18 times and looks like a check-down machine right now. You don't want to mess with starting him in a fantasy league. … Isaac Bruce is playing more than Morgan, but you don't want to use either guy.

Analysis: 44-6. Tell me what's dramatically different here. Tell me how the Dallas Cowboys are that much closer to winning a huge divisional road game. Hey, the Philadelphia Eagles are riotously up and down. Their defense is terrific and a fantasy gem, but it can be had in the middle of the field. If the past month is any indication, Donovan McNabb is no sure bet to show up in a given week. Brian Westbrook will play here but could be a bit dizzy. And yet the Cowboys have to show they can withstand the multitude of blitzes and the magnitude of the moment. Maybe they can. But I'm not betting on it.

Fantasy Up: I continue to have doubts about Marion Barber, and Felix Jones continues to be a major drain on Barber's carries. Unfortunately for Barber's fantasy owners, the Cowboys really seem to have followed through on the threat of making him a "closer," which means we sometimes don't see much of him in the first half. The fact is, though, that he's the guy who'll get all the close-in scores, and that makes him startable as a No. 2 fantasy back most weeks, including this one. … I continue to love the Eagles' defense, and the haters got quieter after last week against the New York Giants (when I had Philly as my No. 1 D of the week). The weakness, as I just stated, is at linebacker and occasionally at safety, which explains why the Eagles are by far the worst team allowing fantasy points to tight ends over the past five games, and which explains why I'm sticking with Jason Witten one more game despite his mediocre first half. But playmakers litter the rest of the field, and the blitz pressure is eternal. Don't fear the matchup; keep using 'em. … It also is beyond fine to keep using DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek, who have cemented themselves as every-week plays. Celek is seventh in targets for a tight end and tied for fourth in receptions by a tight end. … Finally, let's get to Miles Austin. Does anyone else think my fellow ESPN.com rankers went a little overboard squarely ensconcing him in their top 10s this week? Listen, I buy him as the top receiving threat in Dallas, and my pals in Bristol, Conn., know I've been talking about him all summer, to the point that I drafted him in the late rounds of every mock draft I did. But watching the Cowboys dismantle the Seattle Seahawks last weekend, I saw Austin do one thing exceedingly well: He drew pass interference calls from Marcus Trufant. Otherwise, he had five catches for 61 yards on seven targets. Roy E. Williams got as many looks. So did Witten. My point is: Austin isn't going to be the focal point of the Cowboys' offense. He's a good big-play threat; he is. And he caught that nice 3-yard score in the third quarter. But I'm betting he will run mostly against Asante Samuel on Sunday night, which is an entirely different kettle of fish. If he's not a 10-target guy, and he's got a great corner glued to him, and he's really never had to fight a double-team in his life, he's going to have few points. And guys inside our top 10 shouldn't have consistent low points. Ranking Austin above Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White or Chad Ochocinco shouldn't happen any week, let alone a week when Austin is facing the third best defense holding down fantasy receivers over the past five games.

Fantasy Down: OK, first off, what was Tony Romo doing in the game last week, up 38-10 in the fourth quarter? Romo got sacked by David Hawthorne and lost a fumble, and I'm betting most of Cowboy Nation wanted Wade Phillips' head on a platter in that moment. Romo was OK, though. Anyway, I know Romo has been pretty good the past three games. And if he's pretty good in Philly, I'll feel weird that I benched him. But I'm benching him. (OK, that was mostly for effect; he's my No. 12 quarterback for the week, so use him if you have to.) … Roy E. Williams caught a short slant and stretched for the end zone last week, barely breaking the plane of the goal line before fumbling. It was nice to see him get his third score, but the ship has sailed, and even Williams knows it; he made headlines this week by saying he wishes he had better chemistry with Romo. You ain't the only one, Roy. … Watch DeMarcus Ware, who's come on, versus Jason Peters, who hasn't. I'd prefer not to use the Cowboys' D, but Ware has his first five sacks of '09 in the past three games, and Peters has allowed four sacks in six games total. Ware also just signed a big extension with $40 million guaranteed. Time to earn that money. … LeSean McCoy saved his fantasy day with a 66-yard touchdown scamper up 33-17 in the fourth quarter Sunday, but overall, he was pretty underwhelming starting against the Giants. With Westbrook back in this one, we're probably looking at a timeshare that tilts in Westbrook's favor.

Analysis: My favorite announcer-related story from Week 8: It's midway through the second quarter of the Denver Broncos-Baltimore Ravens game last week, and Kyle Orton is 5-of-8 for 2 yards. And Dan Dierdorf says, "Fantasy players everywhere are hanging themselves." When an old offensive lineman (and a great one) injects fantasy into his commentary? We've arrived, boys. (And hopefully nobody was so thoroughly invested in Orton that they felt the need to hang themselves. Hey, nobody said Dierdorf understands fantasy.)

Fantasy Up: I can see using Knowshon Moreno in this game, because the Pittsburgh Steelers are really banged up on defense, despite coming off their bye. One defensive end, Aaron Smith, is already out for the season, and the other, Travis Kirschke, is likely to miss this game with a calf injury. Lawrence Timmons is questionable at one inside linebacker spot. And free safety Ryan Clark probably won't play because the altitude makes it dangerous for him because of his sickle cell trait. So there's a chance the Steelers won't be quite as stout as normal. Unfortunately, I can't get completely enthused about Moreno because he will have a crucial injury in front of him, too. Right tackle Ryan Harris has two dislocated toes in his right foot and will miss this contest. … In fact, I'm more interested in using Rashard Mendenhall. I know the Broncos' defense has been way better than advertised, but chinks are starting to show in the run-stopping armor. In the Broncos' past four games, they've allowed an average of 17.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Mendenhall figures to dominate the Steelers' carries. It's true that he had a huge fumble inside the Vikings' 10 in the fourth quarter in Week 7 and didn't see the field again that day. But I still can't see Willie Parker injecting himself back into this conversation again. … Ben Roethlisberger is up 20-17 against the Vikes with 3:37 left in the game, but he takes a sack by Asher Allen and fumbles, illustrating his typically poor ball protection. But because he evidently was born under a good sign, the fumble rolls out of bounds. Listen, I'm using Big Ben in fantasy leagues, no questions asked, against any defense. The Steelers have fallen right in line with the rest of the NFL in terms of run/pass mix; they're at 233 passes and 159 runs, unthinkable for a Pittsburgh team just five years ago. And despite his near-constant tightrope act, Roethlisberger still is second in the NFL in completion percentage. I say that someday, he's gonna get his team beaten in a big spot playing like this. But you don't want to sit around waiting for it to happen. Start him.

Fantasy Down: Santonio Holmes would have had a short touchdown a couple of weeks ago, but Heath Miller was called for offensive pass interference (a shaky call on what the referee called a pick), which got the score called back. Doh. Holmes had seven targets to Mike Wallace's four, which is good, but he had two catches for 59 yards and no scores, compared to Wallace's three catches for 72 yards and a 40-yard touchdown. Doh again. I keep ranking Holmes in the high 20s among receivers each week, and then I keep wondering whether that's a mistake and I'm letting him live off the first two games of '09, in which it looked like he would develop into a true No. 1. That, clearly, has not happened. … The reason I feel fine about using the Steelers' defense despite its injuries was imbedded in that Broncos effort in Baltimore. Orton just wouldn't throw the ball downfield. It was maddening. He had 37 attempts and just 152 yards. Down 30-7, he could barely bring himself not to dump it off. The only non-garbage-time deep shot I can remember him taking was to Brandon Marshall, who drew a defensive pass interference call. He had three pass plays go for 10 or more yards until a meaningless final drive. Sure, Orton has nine touchdown passes and just one interception, but he also has the 19th best yards-per-attempt mark on the season. Marshall is an elite downfield weapon, but Orton won't throw it to him.