Week 17

Analysis: If you adhere to the theory that the more motivated team wins NFL games, you have to believe that the latter-day Dirty Birds will stomp in this one, considering they still have a legit shot at the NFC's No. 2 seed. If you adhere to the theory that the vastly superior team wins NFL games, well, yeah, Atlanta probably wins then, too.

Fantasy Up: No need to worry about '08 fantasy stud Michael Turner sitting in this one, as the Falcons can win the NFC South with a victory and a Panthers loss in New Orleans. A better question is whether Steven Jackson, who played through his continued quadriceps woes in Week 16, will be able to go. As of this writing, the guess seemed to be that Jackson would play, and play a lot, considering he got 32 carries last week against the 49ers. Check the news, but my guess is he'll be safe to use. … Not that Chris Long has been a disastrous first-round pick for the Rams; he's played in all of St. Louis' games and has four sacks while manning the more prestigious right defensive end position. But one wonders if the Rams had it to do over again whether they'd just go ahead and take Matt Ryan, who's in the running for the NFL's Rookie of the Year and who has well over 3,000 yards passing on the season. Ryan struggled a bit in Minnesota last week, but should find the sledding pretty easy against a Rams defense that'll no doubt be keying on Turner. And I know Roddy White finished with fewer than 54 yards receiving for the first time in '08 last weekend, which no doubt screwed his fantasy owners, but you have to go right back to that well Sunday. Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson and Josh Morgan did a number on the Rams' secondary last week, and while St. Louis hasn't actually allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 8 against Randy Moss, White still has to be considered an elite fantasy player. … John Abraham's bookend defensive end, Jamal Anderson, hurt an ankle against the Vikings and might be questionable for this game. That's really my only reservation about potentially using the Falcons' D against a generous Rams offense. Over the past five games, St. Louis has allowed 10 sacks, nine interceptions, four fumble recoveries and three defensive touchdowns, plus has averaged only 12.2 points scored.

Fantasy Down: Michael Jenkins has exceeded 50 yards receiving in eight of Atlanta's past 10 games, but it's still a bit of a disappointment that he wound up the team's No. 2 receiver. The former first-rounder out of Ohio St. is relatively sure-handed and makes a decent complement to White, but a guy like Laurent Robinson offers more fantasy upside. Alas, Robinson was hurt all year, and has even been passed by rookie Harry Douglas. As it is, though Jenkins is a pretty consistent second option, he doesn't get enough play near the red zone to be worthy of a fantasy start. … Does Torry Holt merit that kind of consideration? I have him rated No. 29 this week, which puts him in deep-league flex territory. The Falcons' defensive backs still don't blow you away, especially considering Broncos castoff and sometimes-safety Domonique Foxworth has worked his way into being the team's top corner. Holt has eight targets or more in five of six games, and finally did score a third touchdown against Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, Marc Bulger is still his quarterback, and nobody hands a game to the opposition these days like Bulger. Holt has lost a step-and-a-half, but he's still got tremendous hands.

Analysis: The Bills have lost eight of their past 11 games, so despite a surprising road win in Denver last week, Dick Jauron is very much on the hot seat after three years in Buffalo. That's unfortunate, because Jauron is generally a pretty good coach, but his in-game skills have been questioned for years, and his coughing away of the Jets game a couple weeks back will be one of the lasting memories of 2008. Meanwhile, the Patriots can still make the playoffs if they win here and either Miami or Baltimore loses.

Fantasy Up: Don't tell Matt Cassel last week's conditions in Foxborough were too difficult to throw in. Cassel had 345 yards passing and three touchdowns against the gutless Cardinals, and finally started to seem comfortable hitting the deep pass, albeit against Arizona's awful secondary. Amazingly, Cassel has 3,615 passing yards this season, eighth in the NFL, and he's 11th in quarterback rating. That's incredible for a guy who looked lost in his first few starts back in September. You can still rattle Cassel by getting pressure directly in his face, but barring that, he's a pretty cool customer, and he offers one thing Tom Brady doesn't: very good scrambling ability. Don't sit him this week, and get his primary weapons, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, right back out there, too. … Sammy Morris had a couple of touchdowns vultured by LaMont Jordan last week but was the Patriots' most effective-looking back: He rushed 15 times for 88 yards and caught two passes for 45 yards. It seems to me that the snow and potentially poor footing led the Pats to using Jordan as much as they did (especially in short yardage) in two-tight-end sets, and provided the weather isn't similarly horrible this Sunday, Morris should re-exert himself as the lead dog in this pack. I also wouldn't hesitate to keep using Kevin Faulk as a deep-league flex in standard leagues, and a No. 2 rusher in point-per-reception leagues.

Fantasy Down: Will Marshawn Lynch play? Lynch injured his shoulder against Denver last week and didn't re-enter the game, setting the stage for Fred Jackson's career highlight: 10 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown, and three catches for 70 more yards. One wonders what stake the Bills have in risking Lynch's health, considering the shoulder has dogged him through much of this season's second half. Because the Pats are pretty solid against the run, this is already not a very good matchup, and I worry Lynch could take a few carries, then hit the sidelines. Be careful about using him until you're sure he's healthy, and don't use Jackson, even if Lynch is inactive. … Trent Edwards returned last week and looked tentative, failing to connect on a single downfield throw. I've been saying all season that New England's secondary is eminently beatable, but I don't think Edwards is the guy to take advantage, which means he and Lee Evans continue to stay deep on your fantasy bench. … By the same token, despite the fact that this looks like a winnable road game for the Patriots, I wouldn't use their defense. Richard Seymour looks highly questionable to play with a back injury he suffered last week (something that bodes very poorly for the Pats even if they do make the playoffs), and Ty Warren sat an awful lot in favor of Mike Wright last week. Even with Seymour, the Patriots struggle to get a consistent pass rush (when their opposition is trying, unlike the Cardinals).

Analysis: What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are completely screwing up their '09 draft position (and probably saving Marvin Lewis' job in the process)? After two straight wins, Cincy is 3-11-1, and if the draft order was set right now, they'd be picking fourth. In fact, even if they lose this contest, the best they can do is fourth, whereas a couple weeks ago, they looked like a good bet to be selecting No. 2. And if they win in Week 17? The Bengals could find themselves picking as low as seventh. Talk about a team that can't win for losing.

Fantasy Up: This will almost certainly be Herm Edwards' final game as Chiefs coach. In honor of his dismissal, perhaps his team will re-enact a highlight reel of his greatest hits. They could fail to go for like seven consecutive fourth downs, then accidentally go for a two-point conversion in the first quarter. They could barely get in field goal range, then take a knee losing a few yards, causing their kicker's effort to fall short. They could use all their timeouts before the opening kick, then chastise the media after the game for questioning the strategy. Listen, I think I'd like Herm if I knew him personally. But there isn't a worse or more jinxed game-day coach in the NFL. … Cedric Benson (Cedric Benson?) has better than 160 yards from scrimmage in each of his past two games, and he carried it 38 times last week. The Chiefs don't exactly stop the run with aplomb. Amazingly, agonizingly, I think I can endorse the notion of using Benson as your No. 2 running back this week if your regular options are all resting or hurt. Just make sure you're holding your nose when you pick Benson up off the wire. … Tyler Thigpen seems to play worse as the weeks go by, but his fantasy numbers stay high so we don't complain. Thigpen made at least 10 horrible throws into coverage against Miami last week; sometimes his receivers made plays, and sometimes (often at crucial moments) the Dolphins' defensive backfield did. Thigpen did, after all, have three interceptions. However, he also rushed for two scores, making him a fantasy star in Week 16. But he fumbled twice, often staggered around in the pocket and seemingly has an astigmatic condition that doesn't allow him to see teal. Thigpen's fun to watch, and is worth starting again this week. But if the Chiefs think they've found their quarterback of the future, I think they're kidding themselves.

Fantasy Down: I actually cough prefer Benson this week cough over Larry Johnson. Quick, name the five toughest defenses for opposing rushers to score fantasy points against the past five weeks. Give up? Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Diego, Tennessee and (drum roll please) Cincinnati. Shocking, right? The Bengals haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Mewelde Moore in Week 7, and have given up two rushing touchdowns in their past six games. LJ eclipsed the 100-yard mark against Miami last week, but he's averaging only 15 carries per game since his return from suspension. He's usable, but this isn't the sweet matchup you might think. … Chad Johnson probably won't play in this game because of his injured hamstring, meaning Chris Henry becomes a (very) deep sleeper. Considering Ryan Fitzpatrick threw nine passes total last week, though, it doesn't seem likely that receiving options other than T.J. Houshmandzadeh are going to do much this week, and even Housh is a dicey start in non-PPR leagues.

Analysis: Ah, a game only J.P. Sartre could love. The Lions will seek to find meaning in the most meaningless of contests, seeking to avoid history's first 0-16 season against a Packers team that blew another close one Monday night and now has lost four straight games by four points or fewer. At 5-10, Green Bay just wants to go home, which is the only possible recipe that could lead to a Lions win. But yeah, I don't think it's going to happen either.

Fantasy Up: I've been telling you for weeks, but I'll reiterate: don't blame Aaron Rodgers. He has more passing yards, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, a better passer rating and a higher yards-per-attempt than Brett Favre, and Favre's bogus Pro Bowl nomination notwithstanding, any impartial observer will tell you that Rodgers has had the far superior season. Has he sometimes struggled late in games? Maybe, but you can't blame him for the blocked field goal at the end of regulation that torched last week's game. If and when the Pack starts operating at desired efficiency in '09, Rodgers might not be a top-10 yards-per-attempt quarterback because of his West Coast scheme, but his future is bright, and you should start him with confidence this week. Expect to see the Lions blitz a ton, which is counter to their typical strategy but is the only way they've been able to generate any pressure over the past couple of games. Drew Brees killed them because of it in Week 16. … Donald Driver probably outplayed Greg Jennings on Monday night, and looked like Rodgers' go-to guy in key situations. Jennings is obviously still the more valuable fantasy starter (he has nine touchdowns to Driver's four), but you can use Driver this week, too. He was carted off the field last Monday night with a knee issue, but came right back out and appears likely to go Sunday … Calvin Johnson came out of last week's blowout with a bruised knee, and wound up with four catches for 64 yards and a fantasy-crushing drop in the end zone. He'll reportedly play this week, and will almost certainly have Al Harris on him all game, but if we've learned anything about Megatron this year, it's that he scoffs at "shutdown" corners. Keep starting him. … Ryan Grant and Kevin Smith both make fine plays this week, too. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing rushers all year, including three more running back scores last week. And Smith has quietly become a pretty reliable guy, with 321 yards from scrimmage the past three weeks to go with two touchdowns. The Packers did a good job for a long time on Matt Forte on Monday night, but eventually they wore down and Forte got his. So will Smith.

Fantasy Down: Dan Orlovsky played a real stinker against a beatable Saints secondary last week, though I'll cut him a little slack since he had the flu. Still, one wonders why the Lions' interim brass is allowing hapless Rod Marinelli to go back to Orlovsky as his starter this week. Yes, his tap dance out the back of the end zone earlier this season notwithstanding, Orlovsky has probably been Detroit's best quarterback this year. But nobody is operating under the delusion that he's next year's starter, are they? Meanwhile, you spent a high second-round pick on Drew Stanton a couple of years ago, and he has thrown 17 total passes this year (and his career)? How can you not go with the kid, just to catch a glimpse of what you might have? … Brandon Jackson wasn't able to play Monday night because of an injured wrist, and is considered questionable to go this week, too. Grant might play more third downs as a result. … The Packers' D will be a chic starting pick this week, and I have to admit that I was impressed by its toughness against the run for most of the Bears game. Still, I've seen them fold up in key situations too often this year to trust them in my fantasy championship. Kevin Smith is tough enough to do some damage against these guys, even on the road.

Analysis: The real art of playing fantasy in Week 17 is the ability to discern which Colts scrubs will accidentally produce enough stats to put you over the top. Nearly every year, Tony Dungy perpetrates his annual farce at season's end, trotting out Jim Sorgi & Co. to remind us what untalented people look like in Indianapolis uniforms. In last year's season finale, the Titans beat the "Colts" to clinch a wild-card berth. This year, both teams are in the postseason, so we're going to see an awful lot of lesser lights scrambling around like it's the fourth exhibition game.

Fantasy Up: Um, well, Sorgi's value rises relative to where it usually is, right? Since Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark aren't likely to play more than a half (and might play as little as quarter, with Harrison possibly skipping the game altogether), and since both of Indy's top rushers are banged up (Joseph Addai has a bad shoulder and Dominic Rhodes has sore ribs), my two favorite Colts for this game are Anthony Gonzalez and Gijon Robinson. In Gonzo's case, I can envision him playing more than his fellow wideouts, if only because he's just in his second year, and every rep helps. Robinson has been a useful No. 2 tight end for Manning all season and will be a fine safety valve for Sorgi. … I told you last week that the Titans D would be worth using against the Steelers even without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch because Tennessee has some impressive depth along the defensive line. I stick to my guns this week, if only because history has convinced me that the Colts won't play their starters very long. Keep going back to the Titans D.

Fantasy Down: The Titans have a bye during wild-card weekend, so they might be less hesitant to use their starters a bit longer, but when push comes to shove, I'm betting LenDale White winds up with more carries than Chris Johnson. After all, Johnson is a rookie and has 58 more carries than White on the season. But there's little reason for Jeff Fisher to use either one of these guys very long, and unless you get some kind of assurance that the Titans will play their starters deep into the second half, I probably wouldn't start either of these players. I wouldn't be shocked if someone like Ahmard Hall or even Quinton Ganther winds up leading the Titans in carries. … Chad Simpson seems like the logical choice to get the call as the Colts' running back (why do I feel as if I'm offering wagering advice on preseason football right now?), and while Simpson did score a touchdown against the Lions a couple weeks ago, I wouldn't pick him up for your fantasy playoffs. Najeh Davenport is another option for the Colts' running game. … Vince Young is reportedly very likely to relieve Kerry Collins at some point in this game, but if you can find the stones to use VY in a fantasy league right now, even in this meaningless Week 17 tilt, you're a heck of a lot braver than I am.

Analysis: Much has been made of the Giants playing their stars in Week 17 last year, but of course, they were going against the 15-0 Patriots and had played pretty poorly near season's end and needed a change in momentum. Now they're the defending champs and have a bye coming, plus they just finished a rousing comeback victory over Carolina to clinch the NFC's top seed. So despite Tom Coughlin's tough talk, I think it's likely that many New York starters will come out in the second half. How many, and which ones, is a guessing game. So let's guess.

Fantasy Up: Derrick Ward seems like the most startable Giants rusher to me. Brandon Jacobs is still battling a knee injury (did you see him hobbling around at various points Sunday night?), and Ward needs 52 yards rushing to get to 1,000 for the year. (Incidentally, that would make the Giants just the fourth team in NFL history to have two 1,000-yard backs the same season. Can you name the other three? Answer below.) Ahmad Bradshaw will play some, too, and there's an argument to be made that since he's third-string, he's probably going to dominate the second half. Still, if I'm picking one guy, it's Ward. … On the other sideline, there's no need to guess: Adrian Peterson is a horse you ride, last week's 22-carry, 76-yard performance (with a fumble) notwithstanding. Justin Tuck doesn't seem likely to play on the Giants defensive line, and that simply gives All Day a better matchup. I assume you know never to sit him. … Michael Turner probably had an easier time of it because of Pat Williams' injury along the Vikings' defensive front, but if I'm picking one team defense to start for my fantasy championship in this game, I'm actually probably going back to Minnesota. The Giants really haven't made that many plays in the second half of the season, and in the past five games, they're fantasy's 28th-highest-scoring unit, with 10 sacks, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, zero defensive touchdowns and 20.8 points allowed per game. … Kevin Boss caught his sixth touchdown of the season against the Panthers last week, and his first since Week 12. He's not a productive yardage player, but the Giants do look for him in the end zone. And the same can be said for Visanthe Shiancoe, a former Giant plying his trade for the Vikes. Each guy is a deep-league starting option.

Fantasy Down: Eli Manning will probably play the first half, but does it really make sense to put him in Jared Allen's crosshairs for a full 60 minutes? Discretion being the better part of valor, I think we're going to see some of David Carr and his latest hairdo in the second half. … Tarvaris Jackson remembered he's Tarvaris Jackson last week, fumbling twice, scrambling a ton and playing poorly in the second half after Minnesota got down big and became one-dimensional. Brad Childress has called Jackson his starter regardless of Gus Frerotte's health, and I'm glad it's not my team that has to rely on Jackson to submit a top-notch performance to win the NFC North. Hopefully you heeded my advice to stay away from Jackson last week. Continue doing that. … The Giants receiver situation is a mess from a fantasy perspective, as no one has stepped into Plaxico Burress' prodigious shoes. Domenik Hixon is probably the best of the bunch, having received at least eight targets in each of his past five games. But Amani Toomer and Steve Smith do create a drag on Hixon's value. … The other three teams to boast two 1,000-yard backs: Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris for the 1972 Dolphins; Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier for the 1976 Steelers; and Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack for the 1985 Browns.

Analysis: Carolina looked like it had home-field locked up throughout the playoffs Sunday night, but a win in the Meadowlands slipped through the Panthers' collective fingers. Now they'll have to buck a serious trend, or possibly go on the road for a wild-card game. No NFC South team has dropped a divisional game at home this year. That's right: 11 up, 11 down. So while the Saints are eliminated from playoff contention and really have only Drew Brees' topping Dan Marino's single-season yardage record to fight for, you'd be hard-pressed to convince me that the Saints aren't going to make this contest close.

Fantasy Up: Brees needs 402 passing yards in this game to break Marino's record, and 319 yards to become the second quarterback ever to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Suffice it to say that the Saints and their home crowd are very aware of this record, and so the game plan will be, shall we say, aerial-intensive. Marques Colston (two touchdowns last week) is a no-brainer, Lance Moore deserves flex consideration, and even Devery Henderson worms his way into sleeper mode for the week. Henderson has only 30 grabs on the year, but he's got a ridiculous 764 yards receiving (which translates to a 25.5 yards-per-catch average) and is always a threat to break one deep. If he doesn't drop it. … DeAngelo Williams has already made his case as 2008's fantasy MVP, and honestly, almost nothing he does in Week 17 could tarnish that. Williams has an NFL-high 20 touchdowns (18 rushing), and two games in the season's second half with four scores, including last week against the Giants. The Saints won't be confused with a run-stopping juggernaut any time soon, so I'd feel just fine continuing to ride Williams. And while Jonathan Stewart's head injury cost him valuable touches Sunday night, he's supposedly going to be fine for the finale, and is at least a flex, or a No. 2 rusher in a 12-team fantasy league. … And how can you move away from Pierre Thomas just now? I mean, sure, the Saints have the incentive to throw. But Reggie Bush isn't here for us to kick around, so Thomas has 10 receptions the past two weeks, and 45 total touches in those two games as well. Yes, it was frustrating to watch Deuce McAllister and Mike Bell (Mike Bell???) vulture short scores from Peter Tom last week, but I don't care: You have to keep going back to this second-year rusher's well, provided he's healthy. There is some concern in that regard: Thomas missed both Wednesday's and Thursday's practices with what's being called an injured back, though the Saints still seem to think he's going to play. Obviously, this is a story that bears a great deal of attention, considering Thomas has been a factor for the second straight fantasy playoff season. … Gee, I wonder if I think there's going to be some scoring in this game. Steve Smith continues to be a top-five weapon, too, and the Saints are ill-equipped in the secondary to deal with him. Smith has five touchdowns in his past five games against New Orleans, and ripped them up for 122 yards receiving back in Week 7.

Fantasy Down: Jake Delhomme has five passing scores over the past seven weeks, to go with seven interceptions. I admit he played pretty well Sunday night against the Giants, and the fact that he's got Smith on his side counts for a lot. But Delhomme hasn't eclipsed 26 pass attempts in a month, clearly taking a back seat as the Panthers' O-line is in full run-mashing mode these days. I don't hate Delhomme this week if you're desperate, because again, I think this one's a shootout. But he hasn't been a particularly consistent fantasy option all year, and I personally tend to think he won't start now. … I've downgraded the Panthers defense to 18th this week, despite the fact that they allowed Brees and the Saints only seven points at home back in Week 7. New Orleans' offense is another kind of good at home, and I didn't like what I saw from Carolina late in Sunday's game; the Panthers wore down in a big way, and it's unclear whether nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu will return from his ankle injury in time to plug the middle. Upgrade this unit if Kemoeatu plays, (he claims he'll be able to go, but he made similar noises last week), but otherwise, stay away. … Jeremy Shockey continues to struggled with a sprained ankle, and while Sean Payton reports that the trouble isn't a high-ankle sprain, Shockey's status is still very much in question this week. I wouldn't use him.

Analysis: The Steelers are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye, while the Browns should be locked into firing not only their head coach, but their general manager, who marked this season by sending a profanity-laced e-mail to a fan. I'm sure the schedule-makers really thought they were on to something when they decided to have these divisional foes tackle one another in Week 17. Oops.

Fantasy Up: The Browns let Cedric Benson run wild last week, which makes the wise fantasy player wonder who might take advantage of that situation here in the season finale. Mike Tomlin has said he plans to be "aggressive" and try to win this game, but here's a news flash Tomlin doesn't need: He can win without playing his starters the entire game. I do believe that the Steelers will (in Tomlin's words) "not treat this like an exhibition game," but I don't believe Willie Parker will see the field in the second half. I just don't. Will Mewelde Moore? I suppose that's more possible. But when the Steelers' regulars have racked up a big lead by the third quarter, I think Gary Russell is the likeliest guy to get carries. I actually rated him highest of the Pittsburgh backs. … And clearly with the one-game Bruce Gradkowski Era about to begin for Cleveland (Gradkowski will start at quarterback in place of the injured Ken Dorsey), there's no reason to shy away from the Steelers' D. Again, I won't be surprised to see guys like James Harrison (who has a sore hip) and Troy Polamalu sit later in the game, but it shouldn't matter.

Fantasy Down: I know Ben Roethlisberger is supposed to play, and if he truly came out guns blazing all day this would be a matchup where you'd use him. But I have to believe at some point Tomlin calls off the dogs, especially considering how much trouble he's had protecting Big Ben this season. I think Byron Leftwich plays a lot. … And the receivers? You mean Hines Ward is going to play all game, even after he notches 27 yards receiving to finally hit the 1,000-yard barrier? One big hit, and the Steelers' mindset will change. Nate Washington just may be the smartest start among that corps, but I have a tendency to think Pittsburgh will keep it mostly on the ground. … Jamal Lewis may be swept out with the Cleveland housecleaning next spring, so this could be his final game as a Brown. Don't start him for old time's sake. With all quasi-capable quarterbacks injured, Lewis has 115 yards on 37 carries over three weeks, to go with exactly zero touchdowns. And you may have heard this before, but the Steelers' D is pretty good. … Braylon Edwards caught four passes for 35 yards against the Bengals last week, so while he's got 27 targets the past three games, you can't have any confidence that he'll make big enough plays to help your fantasy team. … Kellen Winslow is highly doubtful to return in time to play in Week 17, which means he may have played his final game as a Brown, too. Any incoming administration will want to have control over K2, whose talent is often overshadowed by his mouth.

Analysis: How out of character was Oakland's win over Houston last week? The Raiders were 22-72 since the start of the '03 season and hadn't scored touchdowns on the first drive of each half in seven years. Their 362 total yards of offense was a season high, and they hadn't won their closing home game since 2002. Now, I suppose you can argue that the Texans were due for a letdown after upsetting the Titans in Week 15, but still. That was a pretty crazy result. Now the Raiders travel across the country in search of their own letdown, against a fuming-mad Tampa team that potentially punted away a playoff berth by losing to San Diego last week, and showing precious little defense in the process. I expect Tampa to stiffen here, but then, I expected the same thing last week.

Fantasy Up: Suddenly the Bucs can't stop anyone on the ground. Their past three games, they've allowed 539 rushing yards on 94 attempts, a 5.7 yards-per-carry average, and five rushing and one receiving touchdown to opposing fantasy backs. I'm not absolutely convinced that they can't turn that around against a team playing out the string, but I'm intrigued enough to say that Justin Fargas could be a top-20 fantasy play this week. His primary mitigating circumstance is, of course, that Darren McFadden is healthy now and got 12 carries last week, but Fargas got 22 and was the man the Raiders used to burn the clock and grind out tough first downs late. … I know Nnamdi Asomugha did a tremendous job shadowing Andre Johnson last week, and this after I made kind of a flashy Breakdown point of saying that I didn't expect Asomugha would follow AJ exclusively (because he really hadn't done much shadowing to that point here in '08). But I'd still find it mighty tough not to use Antonio Bryant. Bryant's on a crazy fantasy-playoff roll, with 498 yards receiving and five touchdowns the past four weeks. Plus he's proved he's one of the legit deep threats going right now, flashing surprising (to me) speed to get behind corners and safeties. … Dare I go straight back into the pewter embrace of the Tampa defense? I dare. I can't help it: This just seems like a classic spot for a reversal. The Bucs haven't stopped anyone for three straight games, and the Raiders showed an actual NFL-level offense last week. But given the stakes (Tampa makes the playoffs if it wins and Dallas loses), the travel and the time of year, I think the Bucs wake up. … And yet, I'll take my chances with Zach Miller again. He racked up another 70 yards last week, giving him four straight with at least 60. His touchdown capacity is certainly limited, but then, name me three tight ends for whom that isn't true.

Fantasy Down: Jeff Garcia showed lots of heart (and blood) getting right back up after that thunderous hit from Quentin Jammer, though the story would've been more poetic if his next pass (on the very next play) hadn't resulted in an interception (which, admittedly, wasn't really Garcia's fault). I have Garcia at No. 14 this weekend, a borderline start in most leagues, because despite Bryant's emergence, it still seems to me that Garcia is as likely to struggle to put up a 200-yard game as top 300 yards. … And you're going to have to look to someone else to get super enthused about Johnnie Lee Higgins. Hey, awesome story, engaging kid, really fast. He scored twice last week, and has three receiving touchdowns and three punt-return touchdowns this year. He also has a grand total of 16 catches. … What about the Tampa rushing situation? Now, the Raiders should be a pretty sweet opponent, despite the fact that Steve Slaton disappointed against them. But who'll take advantage? Warrick Dunn's days as the obvious choice here are gone. He had nine carries for 20 yards last week, compared to Cadillac Williams' eight totes for 27 yards. Plus Williams is the goal-line guy (and had a touchdown taken from him by a bad call last week). I've got Dunn No. 35 and Williams No. 37 this week, for fear that neither will produce or break the mounting logjam.

Analysis: The Bears will have their eyes on the scoreboard in this game, as a win over the Texans combined with a Giants win over the Vikings will give Chicago the NFC North. In truth, this team probably shouldn't even be in it at this point, as Green Bay dominated the Bears for three and a half quarters Monday night and had a 38-yard field goal try at the gun to knock Chicago out of the playoffs, but Alex Brown blocked Mason Crosby's kick and sent the game into overtime. Meanwhile, the schizoid Texans knocked off the AFC's top seed (Tennessee) two weeks ago, and then laid an egg in Oakland last week. But their passing attack is strong, and that's been the best way to attack the Bears all season.

Fantasy Up: This game features two of the more surprising rookies in recent fantasy memory, Steve Slaton of the Texans and Matt Forte of the Bears. Forte was the 44th pick in April's draft, while Slaton was selected with the 89th, and although Chris Johnson may have a slightly brighter future because of his freakish speed, these guys figure to be No. 1 fantasy rushers in a lot of leagues next year. Forte, in particular, might be a top-5 selection. He definitely has the stronger matchup in this game, as Houston allowed the Raiders to rack up 139 ground yards against them. But use Slaton, too; the Bears have really only been able to stop one thing at a time in most games this year, and you have to believe they'll focus on Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, play back in their zones and hope to bottle up Slaton with four linemen. That hasn't worked well for opposing defenses against Houston this year, so Slaton is a top-15 option in my book, too.… Greg Olsen won a lot of fantasy hearts with his second-half touchdown Monday night after he'd been just about invisible up to that point. Desmond Clark is definitely a drain on his production, but the Bears are sort of humorously predictable, in that when they get near the end zone, you suddenly see Olsen get in the slot and you know what's coming. Opposing defenses apparently don't, though, or they can't stop it. I like Olsen as a starting fantasy tight end in Week 17.… And Owen Daniels is coming off his third monster game of the season, with seven catches for 111 yards by the Bay. Keep using him, too.

Fantasy Down: Oh, Kyle Orton. The funniest thing about Orton is that he's played pretty darn awfully over the past month, but his team still has a shot to make the playoffs, and if they do, it might be the worst thing for the franchise in the longer term. In that event, the Bears may feel obligated to sign Orton to an extension and commit to him in 2009, which would be a mistake. Hey, he's gutty, and he did seem to flip a switch in the fourth quarter Monday night, leading three effective drives thereafter. But after a midseason blip in which he suddenly looked like an accurate downfield passer, Orton is back to his jumpy self, focusing in on his primary target, putting the ball in jeopardy too much and failing to make the deep throws because of his limited arm strength. No way you use him in your fantasy championship.… And while Chicago continues to be committed to getting the football to Devin Hester, the Orton-to-Hester combo just doesn't work. The biggest problem is that unless he's making double-moves, Hester can't get open. The next-biggest problem is that when Hester does get open, he's generally so far down the field that Orton can't hit him quickly enough. Hester's a really talented kid, but he hasn't topped 87 yards receiving all year, and has one touchdown since October 5. He needs a bigger-armed guy not named Rex Grossman to fulfill his fantasy promise.

Analysis: The Sacramento Bee reports that Mike Singletary is likely to stay on as 49ers head coach next year, but that offensive coordinator Mike Martz is probably gone. That conflicts with a report from ESPN's John Clayton, which claims Singletary wants Martz to stay. The Bee seems to think that Martz is just too pass-oriented for the defense-first Singletary. Anyway, if Martz is let go, won't it be fun to watch him land another coordinator gig somewhere else in the league, and then spend the summer waxing rhapsodic about the possibility of creating fantasy monsters in a new city? (Answer: no.)

Fantasy Up: Clinton Portis and Frank Gore find themselves in similar circumstances this week. They're prideful guys coming off injuries: Portis has been hobbled all year but did play last week against Philly; Gore hasn't been able to go in consecutive weeks because of his bad ankle. They both toil for teams merely playing out the string, and they each are fantasy vexations, because it's unclear how much they'll play in Week 17. Gore reportedly wants to reach 1,000 yards (he's got 978), so he'll suit up, but how much he plays will depend on how his ankle feels during the game. Portis has back, leg and neck injuries and had to come out of the Eagles game at least twice because he was hurting, though he did eventually run for a 1-yard touchdown. For now, I'm saying each guy is a risky No. 2 fantasy rusher with immense downside, but studly upside. Clearly, though, you should check the news this weekend.… Here's a question I didn't think I'd be asking after the season's first month: Who's a better Week 17 option, Santana Moss or Isaac Bruce? Moss was a demon in September, with three scores and two games of 145-plus receiving yards. Since then, the Redskins have become play-calling wimps and the ultra-quick Moss has had exactly one more fantasy day to write home about. Meanwhile Bruce has had 33 catches in his past five games (eight, five, six, seven and seven), establishing himself as Shaun Hill's favorite target. On the one hand, the 49ers certainly have the more enjoyable, wide-open playbook, but on the other hand, the Redskins secondary continues to play extremely well, despite DeAngelo Hall moving into the starting lineup and letting DeSean Jackson run past him twice last week (Jackson dropped both perfectly-thrown balls). Bruce is the solid, unspectacular option and Moss is the high-risk/reward guy, but each makes for a decent No. 2 receiver in a week when a lot of stars could get yanked.… I like Hill. I like his decision-making, his moxie and his half-grown mustache. I also take ESPN's Trent Dilfer at his word when he says that Hill's arm isn't as weak as it's made out to be. Like I said, Washington is defending the pass pretty well right now, and we actually have had a Jason Taylor sighting or two this month. But I still have Hill as my No. 12 quarterback this week.

Fantasy Down: What's Jason Campbell's problem? He started the season with promise: six touchdowns and zero picks in his first four games, and eight touchdowns and zero picks in his first eight. He had a couple 300-yard games tossed in for good measure. Yes, in the first half, Campbell was clicking with Moss, had a 66 percent completion rate and a 7.6 yards-per-attempt average. In the seven games since then, his game-high passing total is 232 yards, and he has failed to eclipse 200 yards passing three times. His completion percentage is 58.9 percent and his yards-per-attempt average is 5.4. And he's thrown three touchdowns and six interceptions. Strangely, he's actually thrown more as the season's gone on (28 attempts per game in the first half, 35 per game in the second) yet lately has checked down much more, has seemed confused by pressure and can't find any wideout other than the double-teamed Moss to throw to. Jim Zorn hasn't been good for this kid. Not only is he not a fantasy option in Week 17, but there are going to be major doubts about him entering '09.… Oh, Bryant Johnson. You were going to be the hidden Martz-inspired fantasy weapon this year. But you battled injuries through training camp, fell on the depth chart and have managed only 43 catches, which is about what you averaged as a third receiver in Arizona. And you're about to be a free agent again, and most likely won't be asked back by San Francisco. Fiddlesticks.… Chris Cooley most certainly continues to be an option, despite still being stuck on one touchdown. Vernon Davis, however, does not.

Analysis: Who would've believed the Ravens would be a 12.5-point favorite over the Jags in 2008? While I do think that's a little high, it's understandable: Jacksonville's main weapon, Maurice Jones-Drew, has never faced the Baltimore defense in his career, and suffered a last-minute knee injury against the Colts last Thursday that wound up costing his team a chance at a game-tying play. While Baltimore doesn't blow you away with consistent fantasy threats, last week Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee showed they've got a little burst left here at season's end.

Fantasy Up: Pretty funny that McClain made it to the Pro Bowl as a fullback, considering he leads the team in rushing and has been the starting tailback for five games. It wasn't as though McClain dominated in Dallas Saturday night; he actually had only 57 yards on 21 carries before his 82-yarder that crushed the Cowboys. But the larger point is that he's getting the opportunities. McGahee had eight carries in that game; Ray Rice had three. So suddenly a three-pronged attack has one prong quite a bit more valuable than the others, and you should use McClain with confidence as your No. 2 rusher this week. … It's hard not to smile at what Dennis Northcutt has done the past two weeks: He's exceeded 100 yards receiving in each contest, and scored two touchdowns. He hadn't topped 49 yards or scored all year. The Ravens gave up a lot of yards to Tony Romo last week, but let's just say the Jags don't quite have Dallas' offensive talent, especially on the O-line. I'm not ready to tell you to start Northcutt, but if you're in search of a deep one-week sleeper, I guess you could do worse. … Overall, though, per usual the celebrity of this game should be the Ravens' D. It's my top choice for the week once again, and with good reason: The Jags haven't scored more than 24 points in six weeks and have done so just twice all season, while Baltimore has produced at least two turnovers and two sacks in four of its past five. Plus this game means a ton to the Ravens, who'll clinch a playoff spot with a win. The home crowd should carry them.

Fantasy Down: David Garrard played well against the Colts. He ran effectively when he had to, showed some of his '07 accuracy in the first three quarters, and managed the game while Jones-Drew did his thing. But the fourth quarter was his undoing, as he threw an awful pick that Keiwan Ratliff returned for the game's decisive touchdown. Jacksonville really had no business losing that game, but that's what bad teams do. Garrard remains an intriguing prospect, but his receiving corps is thin and his offensive line won't get healthy until '09. No reason to outthink yourself by using him. … What about MJD? The kid's got 14 total touchdowns on the year and his knee is reportedly all right, so it'd probably be mighty hard to bench him against the Ravens, but Baltimore's continues to be the least-generous defense to opposing fantasy backs in the NFL, though it did finally allow another rushing touchdown (to Tashard Choice) last week. Yeah, I probably couldn't sit Jones-Drew either, especially if he's taken you this far. But I have to admit: I'm not expecting a ton, especially because he's barely practiced since last Thursday because of his knee injury. If he's on your squad, check the news on him this weekend. … Joe Flacco is a good player, and the chemistry he's developed with Derrick Mason (who's an acceptable No. 2 fantasy receiver or flex this week, provided his injured shoulder allows him to play; he'd probably sit if the Ravens have clinched a playoff spot by 4 p.m. ET) is terrific. But his team kicked an awful lot of field goals in Dallas last week, and the Ravens continue to be among the most run-oriented teams in football. Flacco has a bright future, and eventually may get the reins taken off. But it hasn't happened yet.

Analysis: I got savaged in Tristan Cockcroft's "Called Out!" column last week for having Brett Favre ranked way too low against the Seahawks' pillow-soft pass defense. Turns out I didn't have him low enough. As has been his pattern of late, Favre looked decent on his first couple drives and then miserable thereafter. His second-quarter interception to Josh Wilson was the kind of pathetic, across-the-field, unnecessary Hail Mary type of throw that would get a non-Hall of Famer benched. True, he tossed a very nice deep ball to Laveranues Coles on a crucial fourth-quarter fourth down, only to have Coles drop it. But otherwise Favre looks every bit the "Bad Brett" we remember from his low moments in Green Bay. Yes, his completion percentage is still very high (67 percent, tied for second in the league behind Kurt Warner), but he's on pace for his second-lowest yardage season since 1994, and that's because he's only effective when he's checking down. I mean, gosh, if the Jets had known that's what they were going to get out of Favre, wouldn't they have just kept Chad Pennington?

Fantasy Up: Thomas Jones hasn't exceeded 20 carries in a month, and not coincidentally, the Jets have been awful over that same four-game span. (They're 1-3, but we all know they should be 0-4.) The simple fact is that when they're behind, even if it's not by a lot, the Jets abandon the run. I heard the excuse last week that Jones had only 17 carries for 67 yards (and only two carries in the fourth quarter) because of the bad weather. Huh? Isn't it tougher to pass in the snow? Anyway, the Jets have to know the path to their season's survival goes through Jones, so keep him active. … The receivers in this game are all flex-eligible players, or guys you'd only consider tabbing as a starting wideout in a deeper league. Davone Bess of the Dolphins is a catch-magnet who probably won't score touchdowns but is valuable in point-per-reception leagues. Ted Ginn Jr. is a legit deep threat that teams scheme to stop, and he caught a 31-yard score in Kansas City last week. Laveranues Coles has out-targeted Jerricho Cotchery the past couple weeks, but both are plenty involved in the short passing game. In many ways, these receiving tandems are carbon copies of one another: talented guys trapped in limited pass attacks. … Dustin Keller had all of one catch for two yards in Seattle last week, while Anthony Fasano went Mark Bavaro on the Chiefs, rumbling to twin 14-yard scores. The presence of David Martin (who also scored last week) makes me still like Keller more than Fasano a little bit, though. … The Dolphins D is the one I'd back here, not least because they're playing the mistake-prone Favre. I have Joey Porter and Miami ranked No. 5 this week, and the wearing-down Kris Jenkins and the Jets D ranked No. 12.

Fantasy Down: Isn't it funny that fate brings these quarterbacks together? While their skills are almost exact opposites, Pennington certainly could've had a season as good as Favre has had in Gotham in 2008. Perhaps the season's most misleading statistic, though, is that Pennington has a 7.7 yards-per-attempt average, good for sixth in the league; if you just paid attention to that number, you'd think the Dolphins were a big-time downfield team. In fact, they've just had an abnormal number of long catch-and-run plays, and Pennington is still the lollipop thrower he has always been. But there's no denying his accuracy. If I had to choose between him and Favre this week? No contest: I'd take Pennington every time. The truth is, though, that in a 12-team league I'd rather use neither. … I also took abuse in "Called Out!" last week for showering scorn on Ronnie Brown against an easy Chiefs run defense. And the results? Brown carried it eight times for 32 yards and caught five passes for another 21. Brown's nomination to the Pro Bowl is a mistake; Steve Slaton and Marshawn Lynch deserved the nod, but then, they didn't have the wacky Wildcat-unveiling party against New England back in Week 3, when Brown scored four of his 10 touchdowns. Anyway, despite the fact that Maurice Morris lit up the Jets on the ground last week and the aforementioned Jenkins seems to take more downs off than he actually plays, I wouldn't use Brown this week except in a deep league or as a flex. Heck, Ricky Williams got 12 carries last week to Brown's eight.

Analysis: I'd like to say the Cowboys have no chance. I'd like to say that their acrimonious, disharmonious ways and their seemingly variable effort have finally put them in a trap from which they can't escape. I'd like to say that, except Dallas is playing a team that fits nearly the same description this week. OK, granted, the only real disharmony in Philly took place a month ago, when Andy Reid sat down Donovan McNabb, and McNabb came back and played a few good games thereafter. But these may be the two most mercurial teams in the NFL, counted out multiple times this year only to roar back, declared title contenders multiple times this year only to punt away seemingly winnable games. I think the Cowboys are the more talented squad in this game. But it absolutely depends which team shows up on each sideline.

Fantasy Up: Who played worse in his Week 16 loss? Donovan McNabb went 26-of-46 for 230 yards and his team scored three points. Tony Romo went 24-of-45 for 252 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. Romo was flat-out awful in the first half against Baltimore, and seemed to get comfortable only after Dallas was down in the third quarter, and had to go hurry-up. McNabb had his receivers drop eight passes, including three by DeSean Jackson, who could've hauled in the tying touchdown with a minute to play but dropped a bomb from McNabb in the end zone. Before that, though, McNabb had bad accuracy issues, especially on short passes. Clearly, you'd rather have had Romo's fantasy numbers despite his occasional doofus moments, which is why I'd probably prefer him this week, too. Frankly, though, each of these quarterbacks can be really good or really bad, and if I told you I knew exactly what to expect, I'd be a liar. … Brian Westbrook was a victim of Reid's play calling once again, as he got only 12 carries when the Redskins never had a big lead on the Eagles. Yes, Westy did have six receptions for 71 yards, something that's usually going to save his day. And yes, you always start him, even against a Cowboys D that really played pretty well last week, except for those two long runs when the Ravens were trying to burn the clock. But can't someone show Reid a tape from the Cardinals or Giants games, when Westbrook had 22 and 33 carries, respectively? … I also officially feel fine about using Tashard Choice as a No. 2 fantasy back this week, and he's still available in more than half of ESPN.com leagues. Choice has taken on a murderers' row of run defenses -- Steelers, Giants, Ravens -- and come out the other side with 269 yards rushing, 155 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The Eagles have been very tough against opposing rushers over the past month, but I can't see benching Choice. Marion Barber is a game-time decision, and based on how he's been used the past couple weeks, I wouldn't go near him in a fantasy league. … Obviously the stars just keep on coming. How can you bench Terrell Owens in a return to Philly? Last time he came to the City of Brotherly Love, in Week 9 of last year, T.O. caught 10 passes for 174 yards. … And yet for all the offensive firepower, these defenses are playing very well, too. I chalk up those long Ravens runs in the fourth quarter last week to exhaustion and a couple bad angles taken by free safety Ken Hamlin (who's been known to do that). After all, Dallas did get to Joe Flacco five times, and now has 25 sacks in its past five games. And the Eagles' D did everything it was supposed to against the Skins, limiting them to 10 points. The Eagles haven't been a big sack or turnover unit over the past month, but they're stopping opposing fantasy rushers better than any other team lately, and have kept four straight opponents to 20 points or fewer.

Fantasy Down: Jason Witten sprained his ankle scoring a touchdown in Week 16, and while the speculation in Dallas is that Witten will make the trip to Philly and probably try to play, he may simply be too limited to be a big part of the Cowboys' game plan. If you've got other options, you might have to consider them. Unfortunately, you probably shouldn't use Martellus Bennett, who'd likely replace Witten, because if by chance Witten does play an entire game, Bennett will be well nigh useless. … DeSean Jackson caught two passes for 14 yards in D.C. last week, but that doesn't begin to tell of his adventures. He could've had two touchdowns if not for awful drops, getting behind DeAngelo Hall on two separate occasions and having McNabb lay perfect passes on him, only to have them ricochet off his hands. Rookies have days like this, it's true, but Jackson has been on-again, off-again for a month. He's the only potentially usable Philly receiver, but I have him rated only No. 28 this week, putting him in third-fantasy-receiver territory.

Analysis: Here goes my Cardinals rant. I can scarcely remember a more gutless performance than the one I saw Arizona perpetrate in the snow last week in New England. The Cardinals came off the bus wishing they weren't there. Despite obvious personnel advantages in the passing game, they came out and ran eight times in their first nine plays, and coach Ken Whisenhunt told reporters afterward that the weather had nothing to do with it. They were going to "work on the running game" no matter what. Um, Ken? Isn't it, like, Week 16? Do you think that particular ship may have sailed? And what is this, an exhibition game? You really should have informed the brave thousands who came to Gillette Field, not to mention the thousands more who made the mistake of starting Kurt Warner in their fantasy championships. To watch the offensive line play matador all day, you'd have thought Warner had insulted them. To watch the defense tackle was to know what the expression "a lady never gets her hands dirty" came from. Seriously, this is not just sour fantasy grapes talking. (In fact, I didn't have any of the Cards' skill players last week.) If you didn't see it, this was bad. This wasn't just some run-of-the-mill blowout. The Cardinals didn't show up. If the NFL didn't give someone in that organization a talking to, I'd be very surprised.

Fantasy Up: The silver lining of the Cards' soiling themselves last week came late, when Matt Leinart threw a 78-yard score to Larry Fitzgerald. The other silver lining may be for any fantasy owners who play in Week 17, because now Whisenhunt is really turning on the heat, and forcing his starters to play in what is still a meaningless exercise. So Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (who's expected to return from injury and play this week) and Warner should all be in there for much of the game (at least until the team's losing by 30). I'm obviously pretty angry at the whole situation, but I think you probably have to start them all once more. Although it has improved in the past month, the Seattle pass defense can definitely still be had.… Maurice Morris rushed 29 times for 116 yards on the Jets last week, and Morris was the most decisive I've ever seen him, mostly cutting once then zipping upfield. The Cardinals' once-strong rush defense has deflated the past four weeks, allowing an average of 162 yards per game. Bertrand Berry and Adrian Wilson simply don't look like the same players to me these days. Anyway, I'd feel fine about starting Morris again this week.… Ditto for Deion Branch. I've been very leery of Branch, and that turned out to be pretty smart last week, when he had two catches against the Jets for six yards (Darrelle Revis had everything to do with that). But Roderick Hood is a target-magnet right now and you can bet the 'Hawks will do their best to get Branch matched up deep against him. Heck, I'm so down on the Cards after their past two games, I've got Seneca Wallace rated No. 15 among quarterbacks this week, and there's no question John Carlson should be in your lineup.

Fantasy Down: Way to work on the run, Arizona. Tim Hightower carried it 10 times for 17 yards in New England and fumbled once (a teammate recovered it), dropped a pass and basically looked thoroughly incompetent. In fact, Hightower was so bad, the Cardinals went back to Edgerrin James, who managed 19 yards on four carries in the injured J.J. Arrington's absence. By now, you agree with me that this running game is radioactive. Stay away.… Steve Breaston is acting very much like a third receiver again, and despite Boldin's absence last week, managed only a single catch for six yards. Don't blame him, but you shouldn't feel obliged to start him. He's a deep-league flex, though he may get Kelly Jennings on him in man coverage.… There are some players I feel smart about. Julius Jones is one of them. All summer I had to fend off assertions about how there was no way that the Seahawks would've signed Jones to a relatively big free-agent deal if they weren't committed to making him the starter. My response was that it's easy to be committed to Jones in July, and less easy in October, which is why I begged you not to draft him. Hopefully you listened.

Analysis: It turns out that the AFC West is just about the NFC West's equal in terms of jokiness. The Broncos yacked away their two-game lead with three to play, and now have to go on the road to avoid a Mets-like collapse and miss the playoffs. Of course, this is also a revenge game from way back in Week 2, when Jay Cutler fumbled near the Chargers goal line but a whistle mistakenly blew the play dead. Cutler subsequently threw both a touchdown and the winning two-point conversion. Revenge is a dish best served with lightning bolts.

Fantasy Up: This is a shootout waiting to happen. Cutler didn't play great against the Bills, but he did throw until his arm nearly fell off, racking up 49 attempts and 359 yards. The fact that Denver has nothing resembling a running game only helps Cutler's fantasy owners, and frankly, that's the best way to beat the Chargers anyway. San Diego has stiffened big time against the run over the past five weeks, having become the third-toughest defense for opposing fantasy rushers to score against in that time. Use Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler with impunity.… With the help of an onside kick, Philip Rivers engineered an improbable comeback against the Chiefs two weeks ago, then stormed back after Tampa seemed ready to put San Diego away at home last week. Rivers leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes (he threw four against the Bucs) and made several plays with his legs last week. I still don't trust him to be an accurate passer in a big spot, and he's still a hothead at times, but against a Denver defense that was just awful against the Bills last week, Rivers is actually my No. 1 quarterback of Week 17.… It was particularly heartening for Antonio Gates owners to finally get that one huge game out of him; against Tampa Bay, he caught two touchdowns when Rivers scrambled and found him in the back of the end zone. The big fella has fantasy-championship timing.… Vincent Jackson also continues to be a stallion at season's end. He racked up seven catches for 111 yards last week, has seven touchdowns and nine, eight and 10 targets the past three weeks. Get him in there and look for him to run wild against Denver.

Fantasy Down: Yeah, um, stay away from the fantasy defenses. The Chargers have gotten a bit better lately (as I mentioned, they're now pretty tough against the run), but the Broncos' pass offense can make anyone look Swiss-cheesed. Meanwhile, Denver is my 31st-ranked unit this week, ahead of only the winless Lions. The returns of Champ Bailey and D.J. Williams haven't made much of a difference; Denver can't tackle, doesn't get pressure on the quarterback, and seems to fold regularly at the point of attack.… Selvin Young is out for the season with a ruptured disc in his neck and rookie P.J. Pope tore a hamstring last week. If you're keeping score at home, that's 59 Denver rushers that are out for the year. (OK, that may be a slight exaggeration.) Anyway, the last man stealing, er, standing is Tatum Bell, who had five carries for 20 yards against Buffalo. Nothing to see here.