Analysis: Four days ago, we figured this game would feature one of fantasy's most feared ankle injuries: the one belonging to DeAngelo Williams. Williams sent the fantasy world into a frenzy last weekend as a game-time decision heading into a clash with the Atlanta Falcons, but he wound up playing well: 20 touches for 122 total yards. Disaster averted. Instead, it's Ronnie Brown's owners who enter Thursday's game with a sigh and a shoulder shrug. Brown had a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defender land on the back of his heel from behind in the third quarter Sunday and was placed on injured reserve Wednesday and is done for the season. Ricky Williams now ascends to one of the more coveted roles in fantasy: lead back for a team tied for the second-highest run/pass mix in the league (tied, incidentally, with the Carolina Panthers), Wildcat functionary and red zone threat. His late 27-yard scamper with under a minute left versus the Bucs last week was the winning play of that game. The Panthers aren't quite the pushovers against the run they were in September, but they still should make for a plus matchup. Ricky is a must-start.

Fantasy Up: D-Willy didn't miss a beat Sunday, though Jonathan Stewart wound up being the touchdown maker, which is going to happen every so often. Williams still gets twice the carries, and he had a crazy spin move in the first quarter to get the ball into the red zone; he was tired, so Stewart got first crack at the score and didn't get it, and then Williams came back in. (But Steve Smith ended up catching a short touchdown pass instead.) Even with the absence of an effective Joey Porter, the Miami Dolphins boast a much better run defense than pass defense, but you can't sit Williams now. Stewart is probably best served as a flex, but he's a tempting flex. Each of these guys could suffer because of the broken ankle suffered by left tackle Jordan Gross last week; left guard Travelle Wharton will move outside. I have to believe that will be more troublesome in pass-blocking than run-blocking, though. … I wrote this in my Monday morning chat, but it bears repeating: Smith is the latter-day Santana Moss (whereas Moss is now the latter-day Peter Warrick): a hugely feast-or-famine player, as dictated by the whims and air currents that surround his quarterback. In Week 10, the winds were favorable, and Smith caught two short scores and tortured his fantasy owners a little bit by making another great catch and a great shifty move after the catch, but then was tackled on the 1. But Smith doesn't have a game with double-digit receptions since Week 6 of 2007, and in the past three weeks, he's got 11 combined catches on 19 targets. It seems the Panthers are done trying to force him the ball, which in the end is probably good for Smith's owners' sanity. I have him rated No. 15 among wideouts this weekend because the Dolphins' young secondary will give it up. But realize Smith is likely to get you either 20 fantasy points or two.

Fantasy Down: Neither of these fantasy defenses rates an automatic start for me any week, but considering that the quarterbacks in this game are, to be charitable, below average, either defense will do in a pinch. The Panthers didn't do a good job against the Falcons' running game Sunday, even after Michael Turner got hurt, and Julius Peppers isn't playing on first or second downs because of an injured hand. But they did get pressure on Matt Ryan in the first half, and corner Richard Marshall made a couple of nice plays in the second (though he should've had another pick). The Dolphins are rolling with those two kid corners, and the fact that they limited the Bucs to fewer than 200 yards passing isn't worth celebrating. But hey, Jake Delhomme doesn't scare you. Incidentally, why in heaven's name did the Dolphins have Chad Henne throwing from deep in his territory, up six points on third down late in the game Sunday? He throws a pick that gives Tampa life; Cadillac Williams scores; and boom, they need late-game heroics to beat the lowly Bucs. That was ugly. … It was heartening to see Greg Camarillo get a red zone look in the first half Sunday, and Camarillo grabbed it and was tackled on the 1. He's definitely a bigger part of the game plan now, but he and Davone Bess have such an overlap in skills that I feel they're used interchangeably. I don't think you can start either.

Analysis: Take away two first-quarter bombs, and the Washington Redskins allowed 190 total yards of offense to the Denver Broncos last week. It's not a great fantasy defense, because it doesn't create interceptions (just five this year, after only 13 in '08), though it must be said that the Skins do have at least three sacks in six straight games. But it is a very good real-life defense, and it doesn't present a plus matchup to quarterbacks, running backs or wide receivers. Albert Haynesworth sprained an ankle Sunday and will be questionable for this game, but Brian Orakpo registered another 1.5 sacks against Denver and now has seven on the season, already breaking the team's rookie record. I don't think the Dallas Cowboys run away and hide in this game.

Fantasy Up: So the world is coming around to my perspective on Miles Austin: great talent, but he'd never faced double-teams or constant press coverage in his life, and the past two games he hasn't gotten open deep but once. He did get nine targets Sunday, but caught only four of them for 20 yards; he was shut out completely in the first half for the second straight week, and started catching passes only when the Cowboys decided to run wide receiver screens for him. So what should fantasy owners do with him? Well, Carlos Rogers did fall for a double-move by Brandon Marshall last week (which got him benched), so expect to see the Cowboys take a couple looks for Austin that way. He's still a really good player in space with the ball in his hands. But (I reiterate) Austin's not a top-10 receiver. I have him No. 17 this week. He'll probably be a bit better here, but don't bench stars to use him. … As many predicted, the Broncos defense is proving to be something of a paper tiger, and allowed the Skins to rack up 174 yards rushing Sunday. Most of that (114) went to Ladell Betts, about whom I was wrong last week. Now, let's still not go crazy on Betts. The first time the Redskins were in the red zone last week, first they threw it to Devin Thomas, then they gave Betts a carry and he was stuffed. On third down, Rock Cartwright was actually in the game when Jason Campbell threw it to Todd Yoder for a score. But by the time the fourth quarter rolled around and the game was tied, Betts got three straight carries from the 5 (he was stuffed on the first two) and scored. Clinton Portis isn't playing in this game, and Betts is a worthy No. 2 fantasy back. But I also think you're fine using the Cowboys defense. I believe in the Dallas pass rush, and Washington's O-line continues to be held together by bailing wire.

Fantasy Down: As I said, it's possible Tony Romo gets Austin loose in a double-move, but if I have another option, I might shy away from using Romo this week. It's really got nothing to do with the result at Lambeau; Romo doesn't have a single game of more than 25 completions all season, and anyone watching him has to admit that he's taking a more circumspect approach to picking receivers. That explains why he has only three interceptions the past seven games, but it also makes him a less explosive statistical player. … Campbell showed why he isn't a starting NFL quarterback again Sunday (despite the win): Santana Moss burned Andre' Goodman and got open deep on the sideline one-on-one, and that's a throw that a winning player needs to be able to make. I admit, Campbell makes it sometimes. But not often enough. He overthrew that one, on what would've been a 59-yard touchdown. … Leave it to Roy E. Williams to have his best statistical game of the season, and leave Cowboys fans hating him all the more. He wound up with five catches for 105 yards (his first 100-yard performance in 25 games) and a garbage-time touchdown, but he had one catch after which he was running free at the Packers' 30 with the score tied 0-0 late in the first half, and he allowed the ball to be punched out. And he had another potential big play around midfield with the Cowboys down 3-0 in the third quarter, when a perfect throw from Romo went right through Williams' hands. As defenses focus on Austin, Williams' statistical performance is improving. But man. … The fortunes of all the Cowboys' skill players took a hit when right tackle Marc Colombo broke his leg Sunday. Colombo had started 57 games in a row. Marion Barber, who suffered in part because the Cowboys called all of three running plays in the second half Sunday, is a flex guy in my book Sunday. … Thomas showed why the Redskins took him with the 35th overall pick in the '08 Draft Sunday, catching a screen on third-and-3, making three different defenders miss and getting it down to the 5. He's a name to remember if and when the Redskins remake their offense. … Fred Davis had a decent statistical game (50 yards receiving) Sunday, but had another downfield drop.

Analysis: Stats count from games like this, too, right? Unfortunately, who can guarantee what the heck will come out of a game where one offense (Cleveland's) is perhaps too terrible to take advantage of a defense (Detroit's) that probably has the NFL's worst secondary? I know Brady Quinn should be able to generate some numbers, but there isn't a fantasy league deep enough for me to find out by starting him. Most of the talent will go the other way: the Detroit Lions offense against the Cleveland Browns defense.

Fantasy Up: Calvin Johnson looked like himself versus the Minnesota Vikings, making big catches over the middle of the field, wrestling passes away from defensive backs, and notching eight catches on 13 targets for 84 yards. It's true that in the second half, when the Lions had the ball at Minnesota's 10, Matthew Stafford threw a touchdown pass to Will Heller. My takeaway was that there was no way the Vikes were letting Megatron score: There seemed to be three guys glued to him. So that stinks. But it's not like this is a new thing; great receivers always get coverages rolled their way. Johnson will find a way to score. … Kevin Smith didn't do anything extraordinary Sunday, but he's very solid, even against a great run defense. Maurice Morris did pick up six carries to Smith's 12, but don't be fooled: Morris didn't even get a single touch until the third quarter. Smith's the guy. And while the Browns aren't pushovers on defense, you can run on them if you stick with it, because their offense commits so many three-and-outs, eventually the defense wears down. I have Smith rated No. 16 among fantasy rushers this week.

Fantasy Down: There have been times this season where I haven't been willing to advise starting a mediocre fantasy defense against a bad offense, and have looked kind of bad. So I had to think about it for a while: Could I recommend either of these units this week? The answer is still no. Hey, Shaun Rogers is playing really well in the middle for the Browns and Eric Wright is an above-average NFL corner, but I'm sorry, they're just on the field too long. (It didn't help that Cleveland had only 10 men on the field for Ray Rice's touchdown Monday.) And then relying on the Lions to cover anyone with that ragtag group of street free agents and practice-squad heroes in their secondary? Can't do it. … Stafford showed his crazy arm strength at the end of the second quarter Sunday, scrambling around and then firing a laser to Bryant Johnson in the end zone. It would've been a good catch, but yeah, he's Bryant Johnson. He doesn't make those grabs. Anyway, Stafford has these awful lapses in which he can't hit the broad side of a barn, but you can see the arm strength that's just out of this world on a play like that. … Quinn will start again this week, though he wasn't any better than Derek Anderson. His two interceptions were just ludicrous. The Browns steadfastly refused to run anything beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage all night Monday, yet on a three-step drop and throw to Robert Royal, Quinn was way off, Royal stretched to even touch the ball, popped it up in the air, and Dawan Landry ran it all the way back. Next series? Exact same thing to Mike Furrey. Then as time wound down in the game, Quinn was set free to throw Hail Mary bombs, and twice in a row he threw it up in the air but yanked it way right, so the passes landed, oh, 15 yards out of bounds. Once, OK. But twice? The Browns offense has scored five touchdowns in its past 60 quarters. Man. … Jamal Lewis is playing out the string, and doesn't have room to run. The right side of the Browns' O-line is just awful. Chris Jennings, a former reserve at the University of Arizona, seems to have passed Jerome Harrison on the depth chart, and looks like Lewis' backup.

Analysis: The San Francisco 49ers offense was a big disappointment Thursday versus the Chicago Bears. How do you get five interceptions and score only 10 points? Alex Smith reportedly checked out of a lot of pass plays to call Frank Gore runs instead, but even when he was throwing, he looked too much like "old" Alex Smith: inaccurate and skittish. In their first eight possessions, the Niners had 113 yards and seven first downs. The Green Bay Packers are coming off a stirring defensive performance against the Dallas Cowboys, and while Brett Favre and Josh Freeman each found plenty of openings in Green Bay's secondary, suddenly Smith doesn't look like such a sleeper for the clever fantasy owner.

Fantasy Up: These are two good run defenses, but you can't sit Gore or Ryan Grant if you've been using them all year. Grant is seventh in touches per game this season, and Gore is 14th (and Gore's numbers are skewed by the fact that he left Week 3's game after just one carry). That's led to Gore's being seventh in yards from scrimmage per game, and Grant is 11th. Yes, there are questions along the 49ers front line with Joe Staley out, and yes, the Packers O-line may be a continued mess. But these guys just carry it too much. … Aaron Rodgers is unbelievable, and not always in the most admirable way. I've written enough about his tendency to hold the ball too long (and I'm about the millionth to do so), but the dude was 7-of-22 for 63 yards early in the fourth quarter, so what does he do? Salvage his fantasy day with yet another running touchdown. Man. At some point, I think his fantasy owners get burned. There was a bit of improvement in his O-line after halftime Sunday, yet in general he's still getting way too much heat. But for the moment, how can you not just sit back and enjoy the ride? … Vernon Davis had more false starts (two) than he did important plays (zero) against the Bears, but you can't give up on him now. I didn't see the Bears do anything different to Davis; it was mostly a matter of Smith rarely dropping back. How about that one first-quarter cross by Davis, where it looked like he might be in trouble, but instead just bulldozed Nick Roach, injuring him? Davis is a house. … The Packers defense saved face against the Cowboys after back-to-back horrendous days versus the Vikings and Buccaneers. Johnny Jolly reminded us why he used to be considered a good player and not merely a head case, tipping two passes, ripping a fumble away from Felix Jones and creating a mess in the middle all day. And as the Cowboys ran less and less, Dom Capers really picked up the blitzes, bringing five or six rushers on what seemed like well more than half of Dallas' second-half snaps. I don't trust Smith, so I do trust the Pack here. The bigger question is whether you can use the Niners D. I think so, but for the first time in a while for a defense going against the Packers, I'm hesitating. The Pack O-line did do some good things in the second half. They shut down nose man Jay Ratliff, who'd been wreaking havoc in prior weeks. The guards weren't backpedaling frantically as much. And T.J. Lang improved moving over to the right side. I think San Francisco will get pressure here, and if I've been using the Niners, it'd be tough to sit 'em after a five-pick game. But if the Packers block better in this one, it might be time to re-evaluate.

Fantasy Down: Josh Morgan is officially a starter now, but he's pretty low in the pecking order, behind Michael Crabtree and Davis, for receptions. He did recover a big Gore fumble on a direct snap in the third quarter on a third-and-long last Thursday, but he's not a fantasy factor. As for Crabtree, in the first quarter, it seemed it he'd be very involved as he made a ridiculous one-handed grab on the sidelines, though he wasn't quite in bounds (and Mike Singletary made a foolish decision to challenge the play). But after four targets on that first drive, Crabtree got only three the rest of the game, including one that was intercepted. I still don't see starting him. … The Packers killed themselves with penalties against Dallas: seven in the first half (three of them false starts) and 12 for the entire game, for a whopping 100 yards. … You keep using Donald Driver, and Greg Jennings is probably borderline after not being able to play much of Sunday's game with a knee bruise. But it's worth noting that the Packers lead the NFL in receiving drops. … Jermichael Finley may be able to return for this game, though you'll want to make sure before you consider starting him. I'd probably wait a week.

Analysis: Rashard Mendenhall laid an egg (along with the rest of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense) against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but that's no reason to bench him here. The Kansas City Chiefs consistently give up big plays on the ground (and did so to Michael Bush last week), and won't be able to push around the Steelers' O-line the way the Bengals did. And with no Dwayne Bowe, it's awfully difficult to imagine the Chiefs moving the ball with regularity, which should mean the Steelers have a nice road lead and use Mendenhall to salt it away. The main concern I have if I'm a Steelers fan here is turnovers and/or sacks that give the Chiefs a short field. I just don't think they'll be able to produce long drives.

Fantasy Up: On paper, the Chiefs have done well recently against fantasy quarterbacks: In the past five weeks, they're eighth-best in the NFL. But in that span, they played Jason Campbell, David Garrard and JaMarcus Russell. Philip Rivers was the only above-average opponent. So Ben Roethlisberger should bounce back from a game where he was sacked four times (all in the first half). Let's be clear, this wasn't just a case of Big Ben's holding the ball too long; the Bengals got legit pressure. I just don't think the Chiefs have that in 'em. … I still have Hines Ward rated higher than Santonio Holmes, but it's getting closer. Holmes looked like he was back to being Roethlisberger's primary target Sunday: He had 14 targets to Ward's 10, and also got a red zone look at the end of the second quarter (which, alas, he dropped in the corner of the end zone). Ward will always be a better red zone target (he had three looks inside the Cincy 20 on Sunday, and one from the 21), which should make him a better bet for a score. Either makes a satisfactory No. 2 fantasy wideout this week. … Troy Polamalu is questionable for this contest because of his reinjured knee, though the Steelers don't think his absence will be a long-term one. Regardless, use the Steelers D. Now, the Chiefs haven't been all that generous to opposing defenses this year; they've consistently been around 11th or 12th in terms of fantasy points allowed to defenses, and had only seven turnovers through eight games before handing over three Sunday versus the Raiders (and Matt Cassel actually also fumbled a shotgun snap, but saw Jamaal Charles recover it). Yeah, but that shouldn't matter. Cassel's also been sacked 29 times this year, second-most in the league.

Fantasy Down: Charles emerged as the Chiefs' full-time back for at least one week, turning 18 carries into 103 yards and a score on a fourth-and-1 from the Raiders' 44, which was the team's first rushing score of 2009. And maybe it lasts for Charles, though he fumbled yet again (the fumble was officially given to Cassel, but it was a botched handoff and I thought Charles should've had it), reprising the issues that plagued him in limited action last season and this summer. Regardless, you won't need to worry about it this week, because no Kansas City back should be in your starting lineup against the Pittsburgh defense, which has consistently been the toughest for fantasy rushers to score against this year. … With Bowe suspended for four games, Chris Chambers probably ascends to the No. 1 job at receiver. Did the Chiefs know this was coming when they signed Chambers? Could be. Lance Long could also be in line for more work, as he's eclipsed Mark Bradley of late. But the Steel Curtain doesn't allow much via the air either, Polamalu or no. Bench 'em all. … You can't get overly clever and do something like start the Chiefs defense, but it's worth filing away that the Steelers offense continues to be among the two or three most generous to opposing fantasy defenses because of sacks, turnovers and the occasional defensive touchdown. That's what led me to recommending the Bengals D last week.

Analysis: One of the second half's most intriguing storylines (to me, at least) will be whether the New York Giants can get their defense fixed. They've badly missed Kenny Phillips and whiffed on free-agent signee C.C. Brown. Corner Aaron Ross returns this week, but won't rejoin the starting lineup until he's 100 percent; for now, Terrell Thomas stays a starter. Justin Tuck came out of the San Diego game a couple of weeks ago, but should be OK Sunday. Michael Boley is the team's best pass-rushing linebacker, and he returned from injury in Week 9 and played well. Corner Corey Webster was having a great first six weeks, but then hit the skids. The bottom line is that without a big pass rush, this defense is soft. Tuck and Osi Umenyiora should have opportunities to make plays against an Atlanta Falcons O-line that's allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked 10 times the past four weeks (but none last week versus the Carolina Panthers). If they can't, the losing could continue.

Fantasy Up: The Giants' safety woes should make Roddy White a great play Sunday. Clearly, you start him every week, but it was good to see him play with a dominance I thought was missing the past couple of games. When White's on, he just looks stronger than everyone else. He's so aggressive to the ball. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he was tackled on the 1 on a nice red zone hookup in the second quarter Sunday, but it was cool to see Ryan take shots deep down the field to White while the score was manageable, too. … There's been a lot of talk in the New York media about how Danny Ware is going to take over third downs exclusively, which might squeeze out Ahmad Bradshaw. I'm not buying, at least not yet. Listen, I named Brandon Jacobs as my No. 1 running back to break out of his first-half funk and be a fantasy star the rest of the year. But the Jacobs/Bradshaw thing has pretty much been a 60/40 split this season. I know Bradshaw has that cracked bone in his foot, but until his foot breaks, I believe the Giants think they have a good thing going. Bradshaw has played very, very well, made the most of his opportunities, looked explosive: everything that Jacobs hasn't done yet. The Falcons have been in the bottom 10 in allowing fantasy points to opposing rushers since the season's first month, which I think gives room for both Jacobs (as a No. 2 rusher) and Bradshaw (as a flex) in your starting lineup. But I'd understand if all this Ware talk has you freaked out enough to want to wait and see on Bradshaw. … Steve Smith got a ton of underneath action early against the Chargers: He had seven catches for 53 yards midway through the second quarter. Unfortunately, he had only one catch for four yards thereafter. But it was heartening to see the Giants run a play intended for Smith down near the goal line (something I spent some time saying wouldn't happen in this space a couple of weeks ago), and watching Smith convert for a touchdown. I guess these things run in cycles: Defenses were keying on the possession guy (Smith), so the Giants started running fades and deep end-zone crosses to the outside guys. Then the Chargers tried to take those away, so Smith was open for his 7-yard score underneath.

Fantasy Down: It doesn't sound as though Jerious Norwood is likely to come back from his hip injury this week, making Jason Snelling pretty much the full-time replacement for Michael Turner (though Aaron Stecker could make some noise in passing situations). Even through their four-game losing streak, the Giants haven't collapsed against the run like they have against the pass, and while Snelling had a couple of nice moments Sunday including a couple of goal-line looks (including a third-down pitch that was successful), he's neither as bruising nor as elusive as Turner. Would I be shocked to see him luck into, say, three short scores if the Giants decide they still stink on defense? Not shocked, no. But with the current info I have, I'm not viewing Snelling as more than a potential flex in a standard league. … Terrell Thomas made that key pick of Philip Rivers late against the Chargers, up 17-14, and the Giants had it on the San Diego 4 with a chance to salt things away. After that? Chris Snee holding penalty. Incomplete pass to Hakeem Nicks. Two shotgun draws to Jacobs. Yuck. You have to keep throwing it into the end zone. I'm sure a lot of Giants fans wanted to blame Eli Manning for this loss, too, but I don't think it was his fault. … Nicks made a big play on a 29-yard wide receiver screen in that game, but Mario Manningham played and was active, too. Per usual, they nullify one another. One of 'em will probably score a touchdown Sunday. I just don't know which one. … Ryan seems to have bad lapses in every game lately. He should've been picked once by Richard Marshall deep in Panthers territory when he was trying to force it in to Tony Gonzalez, then later was intercepted by Marshall. Maybe it's the pass rush, I don't know. But there are times when everything seems in alignment for Ryan to make a big play, you expect it to happen, and then the throw is either to the wrong guy or just off. I want to like him against that struggling Giants secondary this week, but I find myself not feeling like I can trust him just now.

Analysis: Before you look at the teams' records and the 11.5 points by which the Saints are favored, and presume that this is a fait accompli, remember we thought the same thing when the Green Bay Packers came to Tampa. Yeah, and then forget all that. Listen, it doesn't take a great offense to hurt the New Orleans Saints' defense, which has come crashing back to Earth statistically, if not fantasy-pointswise, the past five weeks, wherein it's been third-easiest for fantasy backs to score against and seventh-easiest for fantasy wideouts to score against. The problem is going the other way. Aqib Talib is a good corner. Barrett Ruud is a very good inside linebacker, and Geno Hayes can lay some lumber on the weak side, but is a liability in coverage. And the rest of Tampa's personnel, including the retread defensive line which wears down, allows too many big plays.

Fantasy Up: I won't waste pixels on Drew Brees. But the big question right now is what's up with Marques Colston. He followed up a disappointing Week 9 with a quasi-disastrous Week 10: just two targets, zero in the first half, and a play at the goal line where he stretched out to score and got the ball knocked away from him for a fumble and a touchback. On paper, Colston shouldn't have had an easier matchup all year than against that Rams secondary; if Talib sticks to him Sunday, it could be another long day. But the Bucs don't always play that way, squaring up Talib on one guy, so presumably Ronde Barber will spend time guarding Colston. I'd be lying if I said the situation doesn't have my attention, but I'm willing to believe in Colston. Keep starting him. … Cadillac Williams makes a sneaky play here. The lowly St. Louis Rams made it into Saints territory on all four of their first-half drives Sunday, and Steven Jackson had 100 yards rushing on them at halftime. Sedrick Ellis is slated to return to the middle of the Saints' D next week, and while I don't think that suddenly cures all ills, it'll definitely help. For now, provided his knee doesn't look like it's problematic in practice Friday, I like Caddy. … Pierre Thomas lost significant snaps to Reggie Bush in the first half last weekend, but when it came time for the Saints to start making a move to break up a close game, Frenchy was the man. Hey, Bush has five touchdowns now in five games and has turned into an interesting red zone weapon: Early in the second quarter, first-and-goal from the Rams 5, Bush took a little draw and leaped for a touchdown, which isn't the first time we've seen the Saints run that play in that situation. But in the end, Bush is still getting fewer than seven touches from scrimmage per game over the past month, compared with nearly 14 for Thomas. I can see Bush as a flex play (however, realize that he battled knee problems in practice this week, so make sure he's active Sunday), but Thomas figures to be the one to take advantage of Tampa's continued troubles against the run. … I love it. Darren Sharper has to sit out Sunday's game with a sore knee, and his replacement, Usama Young, picks off Marc Bulger in the first quarter. Gah. The Saints' D only scored nine fantasy points in what looked like a plum matchup last week, but you're married to 'em now.

Fantasy Down: Antonio Bryant got back to practice this week, so he'll probably start. He and Josh Freeman showed a bit of chemistry in the London game against the New England Patriots and he's the most talented wideout the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have. Add into the mix the fact that the Saints' secondary depth is troubled: Corner Jabari Greer will miss another game and corner Tracy Porter is out for a good long while with a knee sprain (though Sharper should return). It's too late in the season to go blithely plugging Bryant into your lineup, but he's someone to watch, because if he's right, Freeman has looked good enough that some late-season magic could come. … If you use Kellen Winslow regularly, go ahead and keep doing it. But we were reminded of his knuckleheadedness Sunday after the Bucs made that dramatic interception of Chad Henne and Caddy scored what looked like the winning touchdown. Winslow committed an unsportsmanlike conduct foul either for celebrating too hard or mouthing off to an official (Raheem Morris claimed he never got an explanation), forcing the kickoff way back into Tampa territory. The truth is that the call didn't actually affect field position, and wasn't the reason the Dolphins came back to win. But it didn't help.

Analysis: Maurice Jones-Drew gets the next crack at the matchup of the year for fantasy backs; in their past seven games, the Buffalo Bills have allowed big days to Pierre Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Moats and Chris Johnson. Losing defensive tackle Kyle Williams in the middle hasn't helped, but Aaron Schobel doesn't look like a playmaker anymore, and boy did the Bills ever swing and miss on former first-rounder John McCargo. It'd be mighty hard for MJD to live up to Johnson's 232 yards from scrimmage from Week 10. But he should have room to roam. Incidentally, lost in MJD's selfless-if-fantasy-killing act versus the New York Jets, wherein he took a knee on the 1 to set up a short game-winning field goal as opposed to scoring the go-ahead touchdown, was the fact that the Jets were actually trying to let MJD score, which was terrific strategy. (I'm actually not sure MJD and the Jacksonville Jaguars were employing great strategy, by the way; how many times have you seen fumbles or other stupid things on supposed chip-shot field goals?) Too bad the Patriots didn't employ a similar strategy versus the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.

Fantasy Up: Oh, yeah, and did you MJD owners also know that in the third quarter Sunday after a Jacksonville interception, your hero was barely tackled on the 1, whereupon he was about to get a bunny touchdown but fumbled the exchange with David Garrard (Garrard was credited with the fumble)? So that was two scores taken out of the mouths of your children. … Probably because the Bills are so soft against the run, their pass defense numbers are strong. They're a top-10 team in terms of limiting fantasy points against both quarterbacks and wide receivers. And yes, rookie safety Jairus Byrd had yet another pick versus the Tennessee Titans, an easy grab on a bad Vince Young deep ball, giving Byrd eight in the past five games. But Terrence McGee is hurt, Donte Whitner didn't play Sunday, and I don't see anyone in that secondary who can stay with Mike Sims-Walker if the Bills try to load the box to stop MJD. Young guys like Sims-Walker can be scary to rely on, because defenses can show them schemes with which they're not familiar. But the presence of MJD means MSW should get some singled-up looks, and that's good enough for me.

Fantasy Down: How many Bills games do we have to watch where Fred Jackson is obviously the superior player to Marshawn Lynch? Seriously, it's not just the numbers: Jackson is a more dangerous player, and that's not taking into consideration his turn as Wildcat quarterback in which he tossed a score to Lee Evans on Sunday. (Jackson even gave a terrific little play-action look to Lynch before his pass.) Alas, Lynch is still the starter, and considering how beat-up the Bills' O-line is (now left tackle Demetrius Bell -- Karl Malone's estranged son -- is out with arthroscopic knee surgery, so usual starting left guard Andy Levitre will give it a go tackle), you probably wouldn't want to use either side of this Bills committee even in run-neutral matchups. … I got Called Out for not ranking Evans as a good sleeper start Sunday, because he's got four touchdowns the past four games. Hey, it's good news for Evans that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back starting at quarterback Sunday, because Fitz has basically said he has better chemistry with Evans than any other receiver. But don't get carried away. Evans has 15 catches in that four-game span, tied for 37th in the NFL, and he has only 27 targets during his supposed resurgence, tied for 38th. We all know Evans and Terrell Owens are talented. Maybe firing Dick Jauron suddenly makes the Bills pass-happy. But I still see a bad O-line, a weak-armed quarterback and a conservative attack. I don't want to start receivers from such a team. … I don't have a great bead on the Jags this year; I really can't believe they're 5-4. I've especially been inconsistent on Garrard; in weeks where I think he'll be good, he stinks, and vice versa. It's true he looked strong in the first half against the Jets on Sunday, but he went right back into his "crap mode" in the second half: 6-of-12 for 79 yards. Garrard saved his day with a rushing touchdown (sprung by an awesome blitz-pickup block from MJD), but it's tough to rely on those. I'm not using him. … Owens showed signs of life last week, and all it took was a sideline tantrum. He stood there on one play and didn't block, presumably because he thought there was a false start or something, then railed at his coaches for some reason. After that, though, he caught a 46-yarder down to the Titans' 3, and later he snagged another long one at the beginning of the second half. T.O. wound up with 85 yards receiving, his most as a Bill.

Analysis: In my mind's eye, I see how this one goes. The Baltimore Ravens stay in it, and look like they have the Indianapolis Colts covered throughout the first half, but they make a few dumb mistakes, and Peyton Manning takes advantage. Why do I say this? Because this is how all Colts games go these days. They may in fact be the best the NFL can offer right now, but they're not great. They're mostly just very smart. Manning made some awful throws Sunday night against the New England Patriots (the Colts had six punts in the first half Sunday, their most since 1992), and heaven knows the secondary finally started showing its youth. But they'll hang around and hang around, and then make big plays and beat you.

Fantasy Up: When it comes to the Ravens secondary, the stats lie. In the past five weeks, they've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts and the fifth-fewest to opposing quarterbacks. But facing Brady Quinn, Kyle Orton and a latter-day Carson Palmer in that span hasn't hurt, and recall that Brett Favre threw three scores against Baltimore a few games back. The Ravens have given up 27 plays over 20 yards via the air this season, and have committed nine pass interference calls. Reggie Wayne is a no-brainer start every week, as are Manning and Dallas Clark. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon? Well, Garcon had some moments against the Pats, but I don't think either is more than a flex play, if only because they cancel one another out as tertiary targets. … The Patriots did ground damage against Indy by spreading the Colts out and then running Kevin Faulk on shotgun draws. The Ravens won't be so subtle. Ray Rice didn't do a lot before garbage time Monday night in Cleveland, but one got the sense the Ravens stayed vanilla for a lot of that game so as not to show other teams any wrinkles. The Colts aren't softies in the middle of their defense any longer, but Rice is a weapon who can hurt you every way imaginable. He'll get his. … How do you yank Indy out of Cover-2? The Patriots showed how: They ran receivers straight at the safeties and threw bombs. Randy Moss did it several times. Of course, you have to be able to block Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but if you do, you'll win the battle. Can Derrick Mason be that guy Sunday? Probably not. That job will fall to Mark Clayton (who dropped a short first-quarter pass over the middle Monday, which he likely would have taken to the house for a long touchdown). But if Clayton has any success at all, and the Colts have to break their zone, Mason will benefit most. He looks like a possible flex play, or maybe more than that in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Down: I should have stuck to my guns on Joe Flacco. It wasn't like I was down on him to begin the year, but I didn't like the fuss, and didn't rank him very highly for the season's first month. But he produced big in those first games while racking up a ton of pass attempts, and it looked like he'd join the ranks of the fantasy upper-middle class. Not so fast. In the Ravens' past three games, Flacco hasn't exceeded 20 completions or 200 yards passing. He looks confused and tentative on a lot of his dropbacks, and really only seems comfortable running the quick stuff in a no-huddle offense. True, he didn't have to do a lot versus the Cleveland Browns anyway. But I don't like using him this week. Unless the Ravens are down big and need points in a hurry, it seems to me Flacco is back to being a caretaker. … Joseph Addai hurt his hand on a first-quarter touchdown Sunday and missed some time, but returned to the game, scored again, and then (had the Patriots been paying attention) might have gotten into the end zone a third time in the waning minutes, but instead had the good fortune to be tackled on the 1 so the Colts could milk the clock before scoring the game winner. Donald Brown didn't do much in his return, but that was at least in part because the Colts were losing big. With Brown's shoulder another week into its healing process, expect to see that 70/30 split from earlier in the year, with Addai given the slight bias for touchdowns, as he's proven his nose for the goal line is in working order. But remember: The Ravens are still really tough against the run. … I'd rather not use either defense here. Terrell Suggs is out after Brady Quinn's cheap shot on his knee post-interception, and without a significant pass rush, the Ravens' defensive backs figure to be sitting ducks. I guess you can use the Colts' D in a pinch. However, opposing defenses facing the Ravens the past five weeks are in the bottom-five in average fantasy points per game, despite Flacco's struggles.

Analysis: There really is no profile for a running back best suited to be effective against the Minnesota Vikings' run defense, which has consistently been No. 2 against fantasy backs this year (behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers). Nobody's run for more than 100 yards against them since Ryan Grant did it in Week 10 of 2007. But the guy who had the most success this year was Ray Rice. It would be a stretch to say Justin Forsett has Rice's skills; he doesn't bring as much mass and doesn't have quite the same acceleration. But in terms of stature and quickness, the comparison is interesting. So while I'm skeptical that the Seattle Seahawks will be able to run with Forsett on Sunday (I ranked him 34th among rushers), that will be the key to this game. Otherwise, the Vikings will send that hellacious pass rush against an undermanned Seahawks O-line, and all hell will break loose.

Fantasy Up: Adrian Peterson scored 22 fantasy points in standard ESPN leagues last week (giving him five straight games and seven out of nine this year with double digits), but do his fantasy owners realize how much better the day could've been? First the Vikings had it on the 4 early in the game, but a false start pushed them back and AP couldn't get in on third down. Then Peterson barely got tripped up on a run from the Detroit Lions' 30, or he would've scored, and on the next play fumbled on a too-cute-by-far attempted reverse handoff to Percy Harvin deep in Lions territory. And later, he was in the clear looking at a 61-yard touchdown run when Phillip Buchanon punched the ball out from behind. We might've been looking at 200-plus yards and five scores. … Sidney Rice is likely to get the Miles Austin treatment for some of this game, as teams are getting scorched when they put a single corner on Rice and let him run deep. But you can't always devote safety help in that direction, or Peterson will eventually kill you. That's what makes Rice and Mike Sims-Walker steadier than a guy like Austin, because they've got elite running weapons in their backfield, whereas Austin doesn't. They're all in the same mold, though. It is (dare I say) a Randy Moss-esque mold. … T.J. Houshmandzadeh made play after play in Phoenix on Sunday as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie held Nate Burleson catchless. To be fair, Burleson did get a fade thrown his way in the end zone early in the fourth quarter with the score 17-17, but couldn't connect. Meanwhile, Housh was huge: 17 targets, nine catches and 165 yards, plus he nearly scored a touchdown, juggling the ball before grabbing it while landing out of bounds (he was interfered with on the play). Antoine Winfield likely will return to the Vikings' secondary, which helps, but the truth is that to move the ball against Minnesota, you probably have to throw. That'll lead to sacks, but it'll probably also lead to a lot of attempts. Housh did make a couple of huge plays one-on-one on the outside (mostly against Bryant McFadden), but mostly he'll run in the middle of the field, which to my mind makes him a better target than deeper-threat Burleson. … So much for the theory that Brett Favre posts good stats only against good teams. Favre had just 29 attempts, but 344 passing yards thanks to big plays by Rice. In general, that theory does make some sense, because the Vikings' run game is so good. But this week, against a Seahawks secondary that didn't really prove anything against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday despite Marcus Trufant's continued return, it shouldn't matter. Start Favre if you need him. … Wow, the Vikings' defense can be scary. Ray Edwards is suddenly making the plays Jared Allen was a few weeks ago, as offensive lines key on Allen. Edwards had five tackles, two sacks, four hits on the quarterback and a recovered fumble, all of which made up for a helmet-to-helmet personal foul on Matthew Stafford. The Vikings' D is my top choice this week.

Fantasy Down: Matt Hasselbeck is a good player in a tough situation, and he moved the Seahawks pretty effectively in the first half Sunday. After halftime, though, the Cardinals were in Hass' face, and he went 12-of-27 for just 141 yards, no scores and two picks (both as awful and ugly as anything Jay Cutler did last week), compared with 14-of-25 for 174 yards, a touchdown and no picks in the first half. I won't be surprised if Seattle throws it 52 times again, but I'm not anticipating an overwhelming amount of success. … Bernard Berrian got not one, but two, goal-line looks during different drives Sunday, but couldn't convert either (the second hit him in the hands). Berrian admitted to reporters that he's frustrated with his hamstring, which doesn't allow him to get deep, and is the same injury that's plagued him since the preseason. It's encouraging to see the Vikings keep trying to involve him, but I don't think fantasy owners should be starting him. … John Carlson scored a touchdown Sunday, his first since the season opener. But it was a hellaciously blown coverage, and it was his only catch of the day. The Vikings are known for giving it up to tight ends, so if you're in a bind, I can see using him. But I'm not thrilled by it.

Analysis: Potentially a fun game here, as Kurt Warner returns to his roots and several elite fantasy options square off against defenses that don't stink but are known to produce multiple lapses per game. Steven Jackson is just a fun guy to root for because he plays with his heart on his uniform sleeve, running as hard a human can possibly run, and yes, the touchdowns are finally coming. And now Beanie Wells has officially entered the ring as a legitimate fantasy option. There should be some points here.

Fantasy Up: The tide may have started to turn for Wells in the first quarter Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. A long pass interference call drawn by Larry Fitzgerald got the Arizona Cardinals inside the Seattle 10, and Wells got first crack and couldn't convert. But after a near-interception and a pass to Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals faced a fourth-and-goal from 1 and gave it to Tim Hightower, who was stuffed. The Seahawks wound up driving 99 yards for a touchdown, and thereafter Wells looked like the man, even after he committed a stupid personal foul to ruin good field position in the third quarter. On that same drive, on a fourth-and-1 from the Seattle 10, Wells got his crack and bounced it outside, scoring the second touchdown of his pro career. And after that, he was terrific: He looked elusive, he looked powerful, he made a devastating crusher of a hit on his second score, and all at once he seemed to surpass Hightower. The St. Louis Rams still struggle against the run, and I'm not entirely sold Wells will be on the field during passing downs, so this backfield job is likely still split. But if I had to pick one Cardinals back this week? It'd be Beanie. … Boldin had the key reception of the game Sunday, a powerful fourth-quarter grab that got the Cardinals out of their own territory and all the way down to the Seattle 13 (thanks to a horse-collar penalty). It's true that Steve Breaston scored and Boldin didn't (and it's also true that Breaston had a second first-half touchdown called back because of a holding call on Mike Gandy), but Boldin was terrific in his return. Ron Bartell did a good job on Marques Colston last week, but in general, the Rams' secondary shouldn't have enough to stay with this receiving corps.

Fantasy Down: Donnie Avery scored twice against the New Orleans Saints, so I don't mean to denigrate his skills by putting him in the "down" section. I just don't want you to get carried away and start benching your stars for him. Listen, for one week Marc Bulger was very good; the Bulger-to-Avery hookup on the first score was a sweet double-move on a third-and-15 that Randall Gay chomped on. But relying on Bulger to do that two weeks in a row? No thanks. Plus, I know Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is extremely inconsistent, but if he brings anything like the effort he gave shutting down Nate Burleson last week, Avery will have a tougher go. … I think you can use the Cardinals defense; I have 'em rated No. 11 this weekend. But the Rams aren't making a plethora of offensive mistakes lately, the way they were when the season began. Bulger was only sacked twice against the Saints, and has "only" been sacked six times in his past five games. Over that span, the Rams are a respectable 17th in the league allowing defenses to score fantasy points. And most importantly, there's the Steven Jackson Factor. Fantasy nation has been disabused of the idea that the Cardinals are an elite run-stopping unit. … The Rams were really in that game against New Orleans on Sunday, pounding it with Jackson late in the third quarter, trailing 21-14 but down on the Saints' 14 with a manageable third-and-3. And then an easy pass to Randy McMichael bounced off McMike's facemask. Field goal. Momentum shift averted. Ugly.

Analysis: I can hardly bear to talk about it anymore. If you don't live in New England, you can scarcely imagine the hand-wringing in the media that's gone on about fourth-and-2. (If you do live in New England, I feel your pain.) I didn't like the call. But what I liked even less, the play that made me think Bill Belichick really was flying by the seat of his panicked pants rather than following a strict plan, was tackling Joseph Addai on the 1 with more than a minute left. Give Tom Brady the ball, down 35-34, with more than a minute? I think he's getting you in field goal position. Anyway, Sunday, you'll get either a shaken New England Patriots team that will allow the staggering, weeping New York Jets to stay in this contest or an angry group that will blow out New York. I know the Jets topped New England back in Week 2, but I'm betting on the latter.

Fantasy Up: Brady and Randy Moss made sweet music in Indy, but I know there's worry in some quarters that Moss will be limited once again by Darrelle Revis. It did happen in Week 2. But listen, Wes Welker didn't play in that game, and the immortal Julian Edelman and Joey Galloway (who combined for 28 targets) didn't do anything to hurt the Jets or cause them to make any changes. This is a scary matchup for Moss, I agree. Once Revis started guarding Mike Sims-Walker exclusively in Week 10 at the Meadowlands, MSW was invisible. But it only takes one successful deep shot, y'know? I'm still using Moss, no question. … Incidentally, despite missing two games, Welker is second in the NFL in receptions, behind only Reggie Wayne. … Thomas Jones just keeps proving it every week. He didn't break anything big against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he was there late on a goal-line carry, punching it in for what looked like the winning score, and he's up to eight touchdowns in nine games. He also might have taken a screen pass to the house in the first quarter if Mark Sanchez hadn't blown the throw. The Pats don't feature an elite run defense, and the last time these teams played, the Jets racked up a respectable 117 rush yards. … However, use the Patriots' defense as well. It doesn't take a football savant to foresee that the Jets want to control the clock here, keep the ball away from Brady and keep the score manageable so Sanchez doesn't need to do too much. However, if and when the Patriots get a lead and the game winds up in Sanchez's hands, it might not be pretty. The Pats have found several keepers in the secondary; I've talked about Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan, but now Jonathan Wilhite is starting at one corner spot, and Shawn Springs isn't even active on game day. There are playmakers back there (the collapse against the Indianapolis Colts notwithstanding), and the Jets have been a top-five offense for fantasy defenses to face all season.

Fantasy Down: In addition to the blown screen to Jones, Sanchez threw a duck on the game's first play Sunday, looking for Jerricho Cotchery deep but seeing Rashean Mathis make a pick instead. He also led Braylon Edwards too much in the end zone early in the fourth, and Edwards made a valiant effort to get his feet down but couldn't. Even in a two-quarterback league, Sanchez isn't a fantasy starter right now. … Edwards is an OK choice in leagues in which you start three receivers, but he sure is frustrating to watch sometimes. Yes, he led the team in receiving yards this past Sunday, but he was held without a catch or even a target in the first half, and then when he finally got a pass over the deep middle, he caught it and streaked across the field, only to fumble. Plus, he flat-out dropped the two-point conversion that would have put the Jets up three with five minutes left. … Laurence Maroney owners got another gift early Sunday night, as Moss was tackled deep in an opponent's red zone for the second straight week, and Maroney cleaned up the mess for a 1-yard score. (Excellent fullback work from BenJarvus Green-Ellis on that play, by the way.) Thereafter? Maroney was just terrible and helped the Patriots self-immolate by fumbling on the Indy goal line late in the third quarter. Sammy Morris is labeled questionable for this game, but there's a decent chance he will play. If he does, he could steal the only thing that's given Maroney value these past couple of games: 1-yard scoring plunges. That said, Maroney does figure to stay the starter for the moment, and I'd be silly if I said he didn't have some fantasy value. … Kevin Faulk had 79 yards rushing on 12 carries (compared to 31 yards on 13 carries for Maroney), although most of that work came on shotgun draw plays, kind of a gimmick that isn't likely to be repeated. What I noticed most on one of those plays? Robert Mathis (245 pounds) is faster than Faulk (202 pounds) and caught him from behind.

Analysis: This meets the dictionary definition of a letdown game for the Cincinnati Bengals, coming off a huge road win in Pittsburgh. Anyone can beat anyone in the NFL given the right circumstances, so what are those circumstances for the Oakland Raiders? They must run it like they ran it against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, and new starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski must make a few plays with his feet and a few other plays with his arm. The receivers have to, like, catch the ball. And the Bengals have to get discombobulated enough by Cedric Benson's potential absence to rely on Carson Palmer's arm, get one-dimensional, and commit turnovers. Do I think it'll happen? No. But I also don't think the Bengals are a great team.

Fantasy Up: Benson wasn't able to suit up for practice Wednesday or Thursday, so his injured hip will make him a game-time decision Sunday afternoon. If you're a Benson owner who doesn't also own Bernard Scott, you may have to avoid this game, because you won't know anything until 3:30 p.m. ET. However, if you do own Scott, it's probably safe to wait and just play the starter. The Raiders were challenged again against the run Sunday, allowing Jamaal Charles 103 yards on the ground. Scott doesn't figure to be Benson-esque (remember, his "big day" last week mainly occurred because of his 96-yard kickoff return, the game's only touchdown) but could be a decent No. 2 fantasy rusher as the starter, though Brian Leonard may take third downs. At least one Cincy beat reporter claims Larry Johnson took plenty of practice reps on Thursday, which could mean that LJ is active to mess the whole thing up, but it's awfully hard to plan for that. (Incidentally, regular Breakdown readers can't be surprised about Benson's injury; I've been warning you for weeks about his workload.) … The Bengals' D is red-hot and playing a weak-armed backup quarterback and a group of incompetent wide receivers. You can't get away from 'em now.

Fantasy Down: Carson Palmer now hasn't thrown an interception against the Steelers in five straight games, and his refusal to make the big mistake Sunday helped in the close contest; Ben Roethlisberger's third-quarter pick that let the Bengals get way down into Steelers territory and kick the tying field goal was huge. But Palmer's renaissance? Bleh. His five-touchdown game against the Chicago Bears aside, he's been OK, but not a fantasy starter (he's 11th in fantasy points among quarterbacks, 14th the past five weeks). The Raiders are easier to run against than pass against, so I don't trust Palmer to put up a big one here. … The returns of Robert Gallery and Cornell Green to the Raiders' offensive line made an obvious difference in Sunday's game, as Michael Bush captured the team's first 100-yard rushing day of '09 (60 of his 119 yards did come on one play, but still) and Justin Fargas scored touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. Darren McFadden was odd man out, with four carries and one receiving target. That balance should start to tip in Run-DMC's favor as the season wears on, but right now this is a three-headed monster, and the Bengals are stopping the run really well, with big play Sunday from Domata Peko (and a huge pass-rushing game from Jonathan Fanene). … The Raiders' D isn't really that bad. In a vacuum, in no way would it deserve to be ranked 31st, as I have it this week. But attached that offense, forget it. Oakland really only gave up one big play on defense last week, a Charles run on fourth-and-1 that went 44 yards for a touchdown. But given the offense, that was enough to sink the silver and black. … JaMarcus Russell probably deserved better in Week 10, though I shed no tears for his benching. Louis Murphy caught a 52-yard bomb from Russell, but had it negated by a Gallery trip. Darrius Heyward-Bey was his typical terrible self, dropping a short second-quarter pass over the middle that he probably would have taken to the house, then after a nice catch with under a minute to go (and Gradkowski was in by this point) and the score 16-10, DHB bobbled an easy catch which was then picked off by Mike Brown to seal the game. Terrible.

Analysis: Beware the reductive storyline. When you hear some commentators -- who don't watch many of the games -- tell you stuff like, "I knew this was going to happen. The San Diego Chargers always start slow and then come on, and the Denver Broncos always fade," red flags should be shooting skyward. Sure, there may be some element in the Chargers' talented-but-underachieving group that makes them head into the season overconfident. And maybe there's something about, I dunno, the high altitude that causes the Broncos to fade. But come on. It's more complicated than that. This year the Chargers are finally realizing they can't run it, so they have to be a pass-first team. And the Broncos lost their quarterback at halftime last week, or they'd probably have won in D.C. I'm tempted to go heavy with the Broncos here, just to buck the reductive mindset. But then, that would be reductive too, wouldn't it?

Fantasy Up: Defensively, the Chargers have changed their stripes. For the season's first month, they were easy to run against, and now they're not. How? They're playing more and more zone, with defensive backs sitting back and linebackers pressing forward. They're also not blitzing very much, and rather are staying home and plugging lanes. Against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, that led to tons of real estate in the middle of the field, and Donovan McNabb racked up 450 passing yards in a comeback attempt. Last time out against the Broncos, San Diego played similarly: Bottle the run and dare Kyle Orton to beat them. He (and a couple of Eddie Royal returns) did. The difference here is that Orton has sprained ligaments in his ankle, and is questionable. If Orton goes, Brandon Marshall makes for another must-start; he scored two long first-quarter touchdowns last week and now has made up for a bad 24-yard output in Baltimore a few weeks ago with consecutive 100-yard days. And the truth is that before he got hurt, Orton had another wide-open bomb in the first half against the Washington Redskins, but overthrew Royal. … Vincent Jackson is 6-foot-4 and fast, and really can't be covered one-on-one. The New York Giants tried it with Corey Webster a couple of weeks back, and it didn't go well. The Eagles didn't even try. They mostly stuck Sheldon Brown on him, and had Macho Harris or any number of reserve defensive backs play over the top on him, and the result was Philip Rivers refusing to force the ball into Jackson: three targets, one catch, 10 yards. Hey, it's not like this was the first time Jackson got this treatment, and it won't be the last. Defenses don't fear LaDainian Tomlinson anymore, and know Jackson is the Chargers' best weapon. But it just takes a few slip-ups, and Rivers will take advantage. Start the quarterback and the receiver. … I have Tomlinson exactly where I had him last week: No. 17 among rushers. That reflects what we saw last week: His first touchdown was a cheapie, wherein Malcom Floyd made a great catch but fell out of bounds at the 3, LDT got a straight-ahead crack and went nowhere, and then the Chargers went spread and handed it back to LDT and he fell into the end zone. But his second touchdown was much more interesting: a big hole on the right side, a couple of nice trap blocks by the center and second tight end and boom, Tomlinson was gone, showing his old acceleration. I'm not ready to say he's back, but the notion that you should have dropped him was always very foolish. The Broncos are suddenly 18th in fantasy points allowed to rushers over the past five weeks, too.

Fantasy Down: Darren Sproles just can't win. He's probably a better back than LDT right now. But where do they give him handoffs? In the second quarter, Sproles was in for a third-and-1 and they give him a straightforward, big-package handoff. He's stuffed. In the third quarter, he's in again, third-and-2, straightforward handoff, stuffed. (But the Eagles were offside that time.) This is a little dude. Now, I suppose the Chargers were trying to cross the Eagles up, thinking the Eagles would believe it must be a sweep or pass with Sproles in the game. But twice? Gah. … Knowshon Moreno took advantage of Correll Buckhalter's first-quarter fumble last week, and dominated carries thereafter: He had 18 carries to Buckhalter's two. The ratio probably won't be that extreme this week, and Moreno still hasn't proved he can run power plays on the inside that consistently gain yards. If I'm a Moreno owner, I'm tempted to use him with the prospect of a starter's carries looming (especially because Buckhalter missed some practice this week with an injury), but against the Chargers, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs over the past five weeks, I'd rather avoid him. … Chris Simms was just terrible in relief of Orton last week. To be fair, he hadn't played in two years. But still, man, he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. If he plays, Marshall probably gets a lot less valuable.

Analysis: Why are these teams so terrible in the red zone? I wish I could say for sure, and I'm certain the teams themselves are just as vexed. They each have been bad there for multiple seasons. Right now, I think both teams are done in by their offensive lines, which make it difficult to run when close to an opponent's goal line. The Orlando Pace experiment hasn't worked in Chicago (plus, he suffered a concussion in Week 10), and Jason Peters was a surprise inactive for the Philadelphia Eagles against the San Diego Chargers in Week 10. Each team is in the NFL's bottom third in cumulative rushing numbers, and most revealingly, the Chicago Bears are third to last in rushing attempts, while the Eagles are fourth to last. Pass-happy offenses generally don't do well without a lot of field to work with. That these offenses throw so much is what makes Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler borderline fantasy starts most weeks, including this one. Sheer volume helps. But neither team is all that likely to convert long drives into short scores. Each needs big plays.

Fantasy Up: Matt Forte is ninth in the NFL in touches from scrimmage per game (with 20.1) and 10th in yards from scrimmage per game (with 95.7). Certainly, his decent season has been one of the quietest in fantasy history, and the fact that he was drafted in the top half of most first rounds means he's been a disappointment (mainly because of those two meager touchdowns). Do I have to explain the Forte Vortex again this week? You're trapped. You have to start him. … LeSean McCoy owners get some clarity, as Brian Westbrook is out indefinitely because of his second concussion in three weeks. This isn't a good matchup for McCoy; the Bears are a top-10 defense against fantasy rushers over the past month, plus, I just got finished saying how easily the Eagles get away from the run. However, expect McCoy to be on the field a ton, and expect him to be involved in the screen game. … DeSean Jackson's loss was Jason Avant's gain. The Chargers played way back across their last line of defense, keeping Jackson covered but leaving big chunks of yardage open in the middle of the field, and Avant took advantage: eight catches for 156 yards. That's a nice story, but the Eagles pretty much proved they can't win that way. They can't dink and dunk. They need doubles and triples. Jackson hasn't scored in a couple of weeks, although he eventually did get involved in the shorter passing game and racked up 94 yards of his own in San Diego. The Bears don't have anyone with the speed to stay in the same area code as Jackson. I think he will break a big one. … Devin Hester was responsible for two of Cutler's five picks in San Francisco; he fell down on one of them and got bumped out of the way by the umpire on another. But he got a whopping 14 targets in a close game, which illustrates how far he's come: He's not just a deep threat anymore. The Eagles continue to be extremely banged up in their secondary (now starting corner Sheldon Brown is questionable with a hamstring problem), so Hester is a borderline No. 2 wideout this week. … Those secondary issues represent my main reservation in using the Eagles' defense, but against mistake-prone Cutler, you probably should start 'em. I have them ranked No. 7. … Jeremy Maclin also is a potential starter in three-receiver leagues. He's getting a lot of end zone looks, and in addition to his touchdown last week, he drew a pass interference call that got the Eagles down to the Chargers' 1. Of course, Philly couldn't punch it in and had to settle for a field goal.

Fantasy Down: Cutler showed you his good side and bad in Week 10. The good: He can be so patient in the pocket, as he was when Manny Lawson leapt across his face, and he then reared back and fired a 40-yard bullet to Earl Bennett (the play was called back because of an illegal man downfield), and he made an amazing throw from the opposite hash mark during the Bears' ill-fated final drive, a laser shot to Devin Aromashodu down to the Niners' 12 that not many NFL quarterbacks could make. And then? The bad side. Ten seconds left, he stares down Greg Olsen in the end zone, who's essentially triple-covered, and throws it way behind Olsen, so even if Michael Lewis hadn't been there to pick it off, Olsen probably wouldn't have caught it. And that's to say nothing of the two other interceptions, which were just boneheaded. … The Bears' defense performed well overall against Alex Smith and the 49ers last week, but it seems when big plays are there to be made, something goes wrong. In the third quarter, Smith gets crushed on a dropback, Lance Briggs picks off the throw and takes it to the Niners' 38, and Adewale Ogunleye is offsides on the play. It's been that kind of season.

Analysis: The last time these teams played, Chris Johnson and Andre Johnson combined for 333 yards from scrimmage in a 34-31 Houston Texans win, but these defenses have improved since then. How much? Well, the Texans' run defense will be tested, because "Sonic the Hedgehog" is the hottest player in fantasy right now, with games of 35, 27 and 35 fantasy points the past three weeks. And although no rusher has surpassed 63 yards against Houston's defense since Week 3, not all of them have been great backs (even though Cedric Benson and Frank Gore are included on that list). Going the other way, while the Tennessee Titans' secondary was burned a few times by long passes this past Sunday (notably twice by Terrell Owens), the Titans are not as pathetic as they were before their bye. Suffice it to say there's no such thing as a walk in the park even for fantasy superstars, although obviously each Johnson will start in all leagues.

Fantasy Up: Matt Schaub wasn't spectacular against the Indianapolis Colts a couple of weeks ago, especially turning right around after a Joseph Addai fumble and throwing a pick to Jerraud Powers. No question, the Freeney/Mathis pass-rushing combo for Indy made Schaub's life difficult in that game, but really, he had ice water in his veins in the second half, marching the Texans right down for what should have been the game-tying field goal (Kris Brown blew the kick). Not all the Titans' pass-defending ills were cured by Rod Hood and Vincent Fuller returning desperation-time Trent Edwards heaves for touchdowns this past Sunday. … Kevin Walter had a spectacular third-quarter reception on a high pass a couple of weeks ago, getting it down to the Colts' 2, although predictions that he'd pick up exactly where Owen Daniels left off haven't proven true just yet. It was good to see him get six targets, but realize that Jacoby Jones (who was limited in practice this week) got five and David Anderson got four in that same game. I like Walter best of that group, but probably not as more than a deep-league third receiver.

Fantasy Down: Did Steve Slaton use the bye to convince the Texans that his fumbling woes are behind him? We won't know for sure until Monday night, but at the moment, signs seem to point to Ryan Moats getting another start. Really, it was pretty much a split decision in Indy; when the Texans had it on the Colts' 2 in the third quarter, Moats got the first crack at a run, then caught a play-action pass for the score. But later, when Andre Johnson was tackled on the 1, the Texans first went with a Schaub sneak, then gave it to Moats on second down (he was stuffed) and, on third down, sent Slaton in and he succeeded for the score. Moats had 16 carries total, but for only 38 yards, while Slaton had six for 17. I'm guessing the split will get closer to even this week. Slaton is the better player, and it's definitely possible to fix fumbling issues. … Kenny Britt had his first start Sunday, as Justin Gage is out indefinitely with broken bones in his back. Britt made a terrific first-quarter long-ball catch, wrestling it from a defender's grasp, although of course Nate Washington was the beneficiary, grabbing a short touchdown over the middle soon thereafter. Vince Young hasn't played badly, and in fact, he has continued to look smart about when to run and when to simply extend plays with his legs behind the line of scrimmage to give his receivers time. But let's face it: This isn't a passing offense. I can't view either Washington or Britt as a starter right now. … Chris Johnson doesn't need to worry about LenDale White in short yardage anymore. In the third quarter versus the Bills, Sonic got two carries from the 1, and on the second, he absorbed a resounding shot, and still spun and found the end zone. White has no fantasy value. … Against the Colts, the Texans' defense used nickel as the base defense (or at least did so an awful lot of the time), which often caused Peyton Manning to check to running plays. Don't expect much of that Monday. If anything, the Texans will go heavy, although they've had interesting success moving big-money free-agent defensive end Antonio Smith to defensive tackle. Smith made a couple of great run stops in the middle two weeks ago, one against Addai on a third-and-short that forced a punt. But would I feel safe using this defense against Chris Johnson? That would be a no.