Indianapolis Colts
(14-1)
Buffalo Bills
(5-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars
(7-8)
Cleveland Browns
(4-11)
Chicago Bears
(6-9)
Detroit Lions
(2-13)
Atlanta Falcons
(8-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(3-12)
New Orleans Saints
(13-2)
Carolina Panthers
(7-8)
New England Patriots
(10-5)
Houston Texans
(8-7)
San Francisco 49ers
(7-8)
St. Louis Rams
(1-14)
Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-7)
Miami Dolphins
(7-8)
New York Giants
(8-7)
Minnesota Vikings
(11-4)
Green Bay Packers
(10-5)
Arizona Cardinals
(10-5)
Washington Redskins
(4-11)
San Diego Chargers
(12-3)
Tennessee Titans
(7-8)
Seattle Seahawks
(5-10)
Baltimore Ravens
(8-7)
Oakland Raiders
(5-10)
Kansas City Chiefs
(3-12)
Denver Broncos
(8-7)
Philadelphia Eagles
(11-4)
Dallas Cowboys
(10-5)
Cincinnati Bengals
(10-5)
New York Jets
(8-7)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Ain't that a kick in the head? Let's face facts: the possibility of the Indianapolis Colts sitting their players is probably something we have to figure into their offensive stars' fantasy value come Draft Day 2010. The regulars aren't going to be much use to you Sunday; sit 'em all.
Fantasy Up: Fred Jackson has spoken openly about what it would mean to him and his offensive line if he were to reach 1,000 yards rushing, and right now he's at 850. I think that means you can expect a healthy dose of Jackson on Sunday against a bunch of Colts second-teamers, and that probably means he's a decent start.
Could the Buffalo Bills defense make a sneaky-good play Sunday? It's possible. Curtis Painter looked awful against the New York Jets, and while the Bills continue to just be a terrible team defending the run, at least we can expect them to load up in the box and focus on whichever reserve back the Colts try. I'm not going so far as to say this is a must-start situation, because there's a chance these guys make Mike Hart and/or Chad Simpson look like Jim Brown. But I tend to think this will be an ugly, low-scoring game.
Austin Collie is my highest-rated Colts receiver because it seems likely the rookie will get some looks with everyone else sitting. But don't get carried away with Painter flinging it to him.
Fantasy Down: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon: They all ride pine after maybe a quarter (and Garcon is out entirely). What a waste of a trip to sunny Buffalo.
There also seems to be a chance that Donald Brown could sit. He's missed practice time this week because of an "undisclosed illness," and you have to wonder whether such an illness would qualify as an "injury" that would cause the Colts to rest him. If so, it does seem as though Hart would be the lead guy.
Brian Brohm apparently didn't look horrible in his first NFL start. He just looked like everyone else who has played quarterback for the Bills this year: noodle-armed and gun-shy. The Bills' O-line is the league's most injured, and wasn't all that good to begin with, and the most the Bills can do is dink and dunk. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans should probably sit as a result.
The scrub Colts defense couldn't stop Shonn Greene or Thomas Jones in the second half last week, and would make too risky a play against the run-motivated Bills here.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. On Sunday against the New England Patriots, David Garrard continued his near-unblemished record in 2009 of screwing up in the games in which you expect him to excel and excelling in the games in which you expect him to screw up. There was a lot to like with Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker going against a flammable Pats secondary, but Garrard carried over his fateful Week 15 throw that lost the game against Indianapolis Colts and was inaccurate throughout Sunday's first half, only salvaging his fantasy day by rushing for a touchdown while losing 35-0. I can't tell which kind of game this is for Garrard. I've stopped caring. I wouldn't use him.
Fantasy Up: Jerome Harrison took advantage of a second consecutive terrific matchup and romped to 148 yards rushing while setting a Cleveland Browns franchise record with 39 carries. The Jaguars weren't as stout against the run versus the Patriots as they'd been previously, though take away Sammy Morris' 55-yard run when Reggie Nelson took yet another terrible angle and the numbers would look far more respectable. (And man, John Henderson is still occasionally a beast in the middle.) This is a worse matchup for Harrison, but I think you can feel relatively sure that Eric Mangini is going to feed him the ball a ton in Week 17 (Chris Jennings had all of two carries Sunday). Harrison is probably a No. 2 fantasy rusher in most leagues this week.
Maurice Jones-Drew tried really hard but scuffled against a Patriots defense that sold out to contain him, and dared Garrard to beat them. Garrard couldn't, and MJD wound up with "only" 98 yards from scrimmage on 21 touches. That Jacksonville offensive line does make a bushel full of mistakes, but as soon as next year, it might be very imposing. Anyway, start Jones-Drew per usual.
Fantasy Down: Marcedes Lewis suffered a concussion in Sunday's game, and as a result of the NFL's concussion rules won't be eligible to play in the season finale. Presumably this means Zach Miller will start at tight end for the Jags, but he'd be far too risky to start (as would have Lewis).
Derek Anderson was as erratic as ever throwing the ball versus the Oakland Raiders; fortunately, Harrison was dominant enough that Anderson only needed to launch 17 passes (he completed eight of them). No chance in the world you can trust anyone from this Browns passing game in a fantasy championship, despite Mohamed Massaquoi's score last week.
Let's just say Mike Sims-Walker hasn't exactly gone the Miles Austin route. Whereas Austin has flexed his muscles lately in the short passing game, MSW is still running way downfield, hoping against hope Garrard will throw it to him. On Sunday in New England, that only happened three times in 25 throws. Heck, slot man Mike Thomas got six looks. I can't deny MSW's upside and the tastiness of a matchup that features ex-wideout Mike Furrey starting at free safety for the Browns, plus the Jags have to know that Sims-Walker is really their own playmaker via the air. You could do worse than MSW as your No. 3 wideout. But expecting guaranteed points out of him is folly.
The Browns' defense has scored 15, 11 and 14 fantasy points in the past three games (versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders), producing 13 sacks and four turnovers in that span. That's also the most sacks and the second-most fantasy points scored by a defense in those three weeks. But do we trust them enough to use them in a fantasy title game? I think that smacks of over-cleverness. They can still be had via the run, and MJD scares me. Plus, the Jags' offense has allowed fantasy defenses to score seven, seven, six and 10 points against them in the past month. Those numbers don't warrant such a huge reach for the Browns' D.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Jay Cutler for president! OK, maybe that's a little strong. But Cutler tossed four touchdowns, including the game winner in overtime, and just one pick (albeit a bad one) Monday night in a big upset of the Minnesota Vikings. Certainly, this should be a dream matchup for Cutler, who way back in Week 4 scored 19 fantasy points in a home game against the Detroit Lions. I'm not telling you to bench your regular signal-caller if he's not going to sit Sunday, because, well, you may not have heard, but this Cutler fellow has a tendency to throw picks. But as a save-your-bacon option if your regular QB won't play in Week 17? You could do worse.
Fantasy Up: Calvin Johnson overcame Drew Stanton's awful first NFL start and Daunte Culpepper's not-that-much-better relief effort to accumulate 128 yards from scrimmage versus the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Jim Schwartz may not have the horses on either side of the ball to be competitive (thanks, Matt Millen!), but he's not a stupid guy; he'll do everything in his power to get the ball in Megatron's hands. Unless you've got great options at receiver, you have to think strongly about using Johnson in Week 17, no matter who's under center. (As of Wednesday, Culpepper was taking reps with the first team.)
Matt Forte gets a reprieve this week; after having to play against the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings the past three weeks, here comes the pillow-soft Lions defense. Now, when you watch the Chicago Bears play this past month, you do sometimes wonder whether Kahlil Bell is playing at a faster speed than Forte does, but I think maybe that's because the Bears often call end-around-style plays for Bell, whereas Forte gets the unenviable job of crashing up the middle where the behemoths dwell. I'd say Forte is at least a flex, and maybe better, in this weird week.
With Johnny Knox's ankle injury Monday and Devin Hester's continued absence (though Hester could very well return this week), Devin Aromashodu became the star receiver in the Bears' offense. With good size and above-average speed, Aromashodu torched Antoine Winfield on the game-winning overtime grab, and overall wound up with 150 yards receiving on seven catches. He's my highest-rated Bears receiver this week, and as a desperation play makes some sense, especially if Hester can't go or is hobbled.
Fantasy Down: We had a Greg Olsen sighting against the Vikings on Monday, as Olsen scored his first touchdown since his three-touchdown effort in Week 9. But his 47 yards receiving were his most since Week 10, and somehow Desmond Clark is back to being a drain on Olsen. I'm staying away.
Maurice Morris crashed back to earth with 37 yards on 18 carries Sunday, though he did catch four passes for another 29. The good news is that the Lions don't appear interested in giving anyone else much of a look, so Morris will probably get another 15 to 20 touches Sunday against the Bears. He's a flex, but not more than that.
I can't recommend the Bears' defense, even against whichever bad quarterback the Lions trot out there Sunday. The Bears have exceeded 10 fantasy points on defense once since Week 8, and gave up 24 points the most recent time these teams met. Charles Tillman got hurt Monday, both of the team's starting safeties missed Week 16, and though Tommie Harris played well versus Brett Favre in that game, he's like an itinerant groundhog. There's no telling when or where the dude will see his shadow and disappear.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. What are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doing winning at New Orleans? Now their chance at the No. 1 pick is gone, and is Raheem Morris' job in any less jeopardy? Nobody in Tampa is allowed to be shocked that this team is 3-12. The talent level, especially on defense, isn't there. Versus the New Orleans Saints, they simply sat way back, prevented the big play and hoped Brees & Co. would make mistakes. They did. Expect more of the same Sunday, as Morris fights for his job. Let's face it, though: If a big name says he'll come coach the Bucs, Morris might well be gone after one year, even though I think it would be unjust.
Fantasy Up: Roddy White took center stage once again and showed why he's a top-10 receiver every week he doesn't face Darrelle Revis. Eight catches, 139 yards and two scores later, and here's hoping you didn't bench ol' Roddy. He has a tough matchup here against Aqib Talib, but again, I think you probably have to play him.
Kellen Winslow just keeps cruising for the Bucs, and while he isn't a touchdown machine (because Tampa isn't a touchdown machine), he's a great bet to lead his team in targets each week, and catch most of them. Get him back in there.
Cadillac Williams overcame playing-time doubts and had his biggest game of the year while upsetting the Saints: a season-high 27 touches for 148 yards from scrimmage, including a terrific 23-yard score that helped the Bucs get up off the mat. Meanwhile Derrick Ward, whom we were led to believe would see his role in Tampa's offense continue to expand, got all of seven carries because of a knee injury, and hasn't practiced this week. Caddy isn't an awful flex Sunday.
Matt Ryan put together a good day Sunday, against what was supposed to be a tough Buffalo Bills secondary: 250 yards and three touchdowns. I can't say that elevates Ryan back to where we thought he'd be when the season started, but he probably does belong back in that 15 to 20 range among fantasy quarterbacks for the moment.
Fantasy Down: Were I a betting man, I'd wager we won't see Michael Turner for the finale Sunday. Why risk it? And that puts the platoon of Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood back in the spotlight. Snelling is still the better fit for short-yardage touchdown work, but Norwood is the better player, and the Falcons know it; they made sure to get Norwood the ball 14 times to Snelling's 16 versus the Bills. Taken together, they have the potential to post some good numbers Sunday, but you can't take them together. Separately, they're too risky to be anything more than a flex.
Josh Freeman looks like he could be a good quarterback, but he's so raw, and just keeps making the big mistake. He threw another two picks in New Orleans, giving him 16 in what amounts to eight games. Don't consider him, and more importantly, don't get hung up on the idea of Antonio Bryant against the beatable Atlanta Falcons secondary. As always, of course, Bryant could go off. But if you'd been operating under that principle the past month, you probably aren't playing in your title game.
Stay tuned this weekend for news about Tony Gonzalez. Gonzo came out of Sunday's win over the Bills with a calf injury and didn't return. He's four receptions shy of 1,000 for his career, so there's a chance he tries to go here just to set that personal mark. But you have to have an alternate ready just in case.
Falcons replacement kicker (and former Bucs kicker) Matt Bryant suffered a hamstring injury in Week 16 and won't play Sunday. Former Ravens kicker Steven Hauschka will play the finale for Atlanta.
I full-throatedly endorsed using the Falcons' defense against the Bills in a home game last week, but I feel a bit more circumspect about using them on the road. Yes, Freeman will give up the ball, and that's the main temptation I feel. But the Falcons just aren't a very good defensive team, truth be told. I could be swayed toward using them if the alternatives are horrible, but I have a funny feeling.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. We won't know anything for certain about DeAngelo Williams until an hour before game time, but with his ankle rests the fate of a heck of a lot of title-seeking fantasy teams. Of course, D-Willy didn't go Sunday against the New York Giants, giving Jonathan Stewart a full-time gig which he knocked out of the park: 30 touches, 222 yards from scrimmage and a 29-yard touchdown run. The Saints aren't good at stopping the run, and the most recent time these teams played Williams accounted for 161 yards from scrimmage. I'd probably have a tough time not using Stewart regardless of whether D-Willy plays, because the thought is that the Daily Show will get his fair share of carries regardless. And yet if Williams does play, could you really afford to sit him, either?
Fantasy Up: The good news for the fantasy owners of New Orleans Saints players is that Sean Payton came out early this week and said he plans on using his starters all the way through Week 17 regardless of playoff seeding. So despite the fact that the Saints have locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, Drew Brees has to be in all lineups, and you probably go with Marques Colston most weeks because he's their main red-zone guy. Everyone else, as you'll see below, is a question mark.
Fantasy Down: Pierre Thomas had to come out of Sunday's game with a rib injury, and while X-rays were negative, there's speculation among Saints beat reporters that Frenchy will take an extra week of rest to heal. That would leave Reggie Bush, Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton to scrap for backfield touches, and frankly none of them sounds like a good option to me in a fantasy championship game. Bush would probably be the most attractive, if it comes to that.
Steve Smith is out for Week 17 with a broken forearm, leaving behind Muhsin Muhammad and Kenny Moore as the starters (man, how far has Dwayne Jarrett fallen?), catching passes from Matt Moore. Listen, Moore hasn't been terrible, and has two surprising wins in a row against playoff contenders. But you can't use these guys.
Robert Meachem ended his touchdown-free streak after a couple of games without a score, but the Panthers are good in the secondary, and Meachem's relative lack of targets (as with Devery Henderson) makes him a touchdown-dependent player. You can use him, but it's feast or famine.
The Saints' defense has crashed to earth. Hard. Around midseason, I wrote (and went on the Fantasy Focus show and said) that the Saints were likeliest to plummet after their otherworldly first half. (Of course, then I went ahead and made them my No. 1 defense for Week 15, so let's not call me a savant just yet.) But the simple truth remains that after scoring double-digit fantasy points in seven of their first 10 games, they've done so zero times since. The run-centric Panthers are a bad matchup for this unit.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. This is an early game, so the Houston Texans will still have incentive; if they win and get the right combination of losses from other AFC wild-card contenders, they can still sneak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are AFC East champs and will either be the No. 3 seed (if they win here or the Cincinnati Bengals lose) or the No. 4 (if they lose and the Bengals win). Pats beat reporters seem to believe that while a few banged-up New England players may rest (Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork among them), the skill-position guys you care about will play. But that's no sure thing; keep reading updates all weekend.
Fantasy Up: The Patriots have been fine against the pass the past couple of weeks; that was expected against the Buffalo Bills' terrible O-line, but I was surprised the Jacksonville Jaguars couldn't get more going via the air Sunday. The plan for the Pats right now appears to be to limit the big plays, but big plays are what Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson specialize in (and Jacoby Jones was no slouch in that regard himself versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday). Certainly there's no reason to stop riding Schaub or AJ right now.
And Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker will be solid if they stay in the game. There's extra risk associated with them, of course, because the Patriots know they'll have to play next weekend, and you're not going to get any confirmation of plans from Bill Belichick. But I feel better about these guys playing than, for instance, I did about the Indianapolis Colts' studs last week.
Arian Foster came out of the fumbler's doghouse Sunday to rush 19 times for 97 yards and a 17-yard score. Ryan Moats was also more involved, as Chris Brown is getting phased out, but if you're going with any Texans running back here it would have to be Foster.
Fantasy Down: Laurence Maroney fumbled at the Jacksonville goal line on New England's first drive last week and wasn't heard from again all day. Does this mean Maroney will stay in Belichick's bad graces? I tend to think not; the Pats have to know they'll need him in the playoffs. But the fact that Fred Taylor returned Sunday doesn't help Maroney, nor does the fact that Sammy Morris rumbled for a 55-yard gain (the longest of his career) in the second half. Oh, yeah, and Kevin Faulk is in on passing downs. This is back to being a morass, and if I'm picking one guy, yeah, it's probably Maroney, but I'm not thrilled about it.
Kevin Walter took a backseat to Jones and the immortal Joel Dreessen on Sunday. No, thanks.
Neither defense looks enticing in what could be a high-scoring game if everyone stays in there. The Pats have come up with double-digit fantasy points on D the past couple of weeks, but the Texans' offense has allowed eight, two, five and two fantasy points the past four weeks to opposing defenses. Beware Andre Johnson.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. This game's biggest question will revolve around Steven Jackson, who was a shocking inactive around 3 p.m. ET Sunday and sent fantasy owners fortunate enough to be near their computers scrambling for alternatives. If the St. Louis Rams are smart (the jury is very much out), they'll play it safe with Jackson's ailing back in an effort to lock up the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft. But Jackson has told reporters he's going to be ready to go. Sigh. If he plays, it'll be tough to sit him, though the Rams' offensive line is paper-thin and leaking, and Keith Null is nothing approximating an NFL quarterback.
Fantasy Up: Alex Smith unselfishly gave Vernon Davis a 2-yard touchdown reception Sunday against the Detroit Lions when it seemed clear that he (Smith) could have easily just run the ball into the end zone himself. I suppose on the whole that's as it should be, since Davis was probably starting for more fantasy championship contenders than Smith was. But overall Smith continues not to play particularly well, which drags down the entire passing offense. Davis is exempt from this judgment, since you play him every week no matter what. But I just can't get excited about Michael Crabtree or Josh Morgan (or Smith) here.
The San Francisco 49ers' defense looks like a strong play, though. True, they've had an alarming on-again, off-again pattern the past seven weeks (four games with at least 17 fantasy points scored, three games with no more than seven). But Null turns it over at such an alarming rate (12 in three games!) that you have to imagine that blueprint will be broken. Consider them an excellent championship-week fill-in.
Frank Gore is still an every-week play, but Sunday let a mouthwatering matchup go by without a massive game. Until he caught a screen pass and took it 48 yards to the Lions' 6 in the third quarter, Gore looked like a championship-game nightmare; fortunately, the Niners gave it to him three times thereafter and Gore finally converted from the 1. If you're still rolling in Week 17, Gore will probably do better for you against these Rams.
Fantasy Down: There'd be no reason to invest in Kenneth Darby or Chris Ogbonnaya if Jackson can't play this week. First of all, it appeared to be a split job against the Arizona Cardinals (with Samkon Gado not even notching a single carry). And second, the Niners are usually fairly solid against the run, and the Rams' O-line is hanging together with baling wire.
Brandon Gibson made a crazy-good catch at the back of the end zone Sunday that initially was ruled out of bounds, but which was reversed on replay. Gibson has shown more than I thought possible since his trade from Philly, and looks like a potential possession receiver of the future, but right now, considering the Rams don't have a quarterback of the future, you can't think about using anyone from this passing game.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Ricky Williams slaughtered his share of fantasy contenders last week against the Houston Texans, missing most of the second half with a shoulder injury and accounting for only 61 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches. The immortal Lex Hilliard took over thereafter and scored twice. The Pittsburgh Steelers don't boast an elite run defense any longer, so you'd certainly play Ricky if he can go. After Week 16, he seemed positive, but be sure to check the game-day inactives. Hilliard would be less interesting if Williams doesn't play.
Fantasy Up: Ben Roethlisberger is such a slacker. A week after he eclipsed 500 yards passing, he only manages 259? Just kidding. Big Ben and Santonio Holmes continue to be one of the most consistent duos of the season's second half, and each is well worth a start Sunday against a Miami Dolphins pass defense that was schooled yet again last week.
Rashard Mendenhall was awful versus the Baltimore Ravens; that isn't shocking, considering they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past six weeks, but Mendenhall had an easy touchdown catch wide open over the middle and he dropped it. The Dolphins are by no means elite stopping opposing rushers (Arian Foster hit them up for 97 yards on the ground last week), and considering he'll probably touch the ball between 15 and 20 times every week, it's hard not to consider Mendenhall a top-20 option. He's no sure thing, though.
Fantasy Down: Just when you thought it was safe to write off Ted Ginn Jr., he pulls another big game out of his, ahem, hat: five catches for 82 yards versus the Texans, plus a long touchdown that was called back because of a penalty. Chad Henne now has three 300-yard games his past four outings, and you're forgiven for viewing the Steelers' secondary as a plus matchup. But from week to week, you just don't know who Henne's favored targets will be. As for Henne himself, you can't blame him for his interception (it bounced off Ricky Williams' shoulder pads), but he did fling a few passes up for grabs where he didn't need to. Obviously, the Dolphins' preference would be not to fall behind huge in the first half so Henne needs to throw the ball 55 times. I rated him 13th among quarterbacks in this strange week.
Hines Ward is a tough dude, and the fact that he re-injured his hamstring in the Steelers' must-win victory over the Ravens last week doesn't make me think he'll sit this game out. But will he be effective? He grabbed four balls for 37 yards last week before exiting, a sure comedown from his 126 yards two weeks ago versus the Green Bay Packers. Listen, I think the Dolphins will give up big plays here (Mike Wallace makes for a deep sleeper, too), so if you can convince yourself Ward's leg is OK, go for it. But if it's not, can you afford the donut?
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Which team is yacking harder right now? The New York Giants started the season 5-0 and will miss the playoffs after getting humiliated by the Carolina Panthers in the team's final game at the Meadowlands. The Minnesota Vikings have dropped three of four after starting 10-1, and those losses haven't exactly come against the league's iron: the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. This is the time of year when it's tempting to fall back on what you learned about teams in September and October and assume they'll snap back. But I'm not doing that. I think the Vikings are in huge trouble in the playoffs. Yes, their offense has insane weapons, but the O-line has suddenly become incredibly average. And the defense isn't getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, Antoine Winfield couldn't cover your grandmother, and teams are just marching it up and down on the Vikings. If the Giants show any heart here, they can move the ball via the air.
Fantasy Up: Certainly, the usual Vikings suspects are all nice bets for fine production: Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe (provided he's healthy, as he's battling a thigh injury), etc. The Giants have even bigger troubles on defense than the Vikings do, with Osi Umenyiora barely playing at all and whining about wanting to get out of Gotham, and the secondary among the league's most decimated by injury.
The worry for Minnesota, though, is going the other way, as Eli Manning figures to recover from an awful game against Carolina. (Most of his yardage came in the second half when the game had long since been decided.) And Steve Smith is an every-week starter, and could have had a second touchdown Sunday, but it was called back by a penalty.
And the Giants' rushing situation may have gotten a little clearer when Brandon Jacobs took himself out of last week's game with an injured knee (he wound up with 1 yard on six carries). He is out after getting his knee scoped, which gives Ahmad Bradshaw the start. Every Giants fan knows Bradshaw has been the better player pretty much all year, and while the Vikings don't represent a good matchup for an opposing rusher, he might merit No. 2 RB consideration.
Fantasy Down: Don't go near either one of these defenses. Suddenly the Vikings have scored minus-2, seven, three and minus-3 fantasy points on defense in the past month. What? That's crazy, and honestly, I haven't been watching enough film to give you a great reason why. It certainly didn't help that defensive tackle Pat Williams didn't play Monday night, and the Vikes just didn't muster a consistent pass rush against a crummy Bears O-line, and that exposed their overaggressive (and occasionally slow-afoot) corners. And the Giants? Well, forget a couple of Mondays ago in D.C. They were right back to being laughable against the Panthers, and have scored negative fantasy points in two of three games.
Mario Manningham lost a first-quarter fumble but still out-produced Hakeem Nicks on Sunday, giving no clarity to the Giants' fantasy deep-threat situation. There will probably be plays out there for one of these guys Sunday. I just don't know which one.
Percy Harvin didn't do much with his eight targets Monday night, catching only four for 40 yards. He does appear to be over his migraine woes, but he and Bernard Berrian take a back seat to Rice most games, and Berrian dropped what would have been a deep first-half strike far into Bears territory. It's tough to endorse using either guy in your title match.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. It's especially hard for fantasy owners to know what they'll get in this one. It's a late game, so the issue of whether or not the Arizona Cardinals can luck out and win the NFC's No. 2 seed will have been decided (if the Minnesota Vikings beat the New York Giants in the early game, Arizona will either be the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed). So there's a chance the Cardinals will rest some players. And will the Green Bay Packers go all out? They're either the No. 5 or the No. 6, with little to play for and the knowledge that they definitely won't have a week off. Yet there hasn't been any indication that the Packers are ready to sit their guys, either. Honestly, I don't know what to expect here.
Fantasy Up: Aaron Rodgers has been the fantasy quarterback position's most pleasant surprise all year, and if you're in your fantasy championship, he's been a big part of it. Can you afford to roll with him, not knowing what the Packers' plans are? I guess that depends on your alternatives. Read the team's beat reporters this weekend and see if you can get an inkling of what the team's plans are. Because this is a late game, you simply might not have the luxury of waiting for Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant or Jermichael Finley. Clearly, all five of those guys would be fantasy starters if the Pack decides it'll play to win.
Another thing we need to consider is the fact that these teams look like decent bets to face one another in the first round of the playoffs, and do they really want to show everything they've got -- on offense or defense -- in a game that counts for seeding, as opposed to a playoff game? Ken Whisenhunt told Cardinals beat reporters it would be "awfully hard to keep Kurt Warner or Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin off the field" when the goal is to remain in rhythm. OK. But Fitz is battling an elbow contusion, and again, there's very little to be gained if the Vikings win. This is probably fantasy football's most vexing game of the weekend. I don't know what to tell you to do.
Fantasy Down: Just because the offenses might be likely to go a bit vanilla doesn't mean the defenses will dominate. In fact, these defenses are just as likely to take their feet off their respective pedals. I like the Packers' defensive talent and depth more than I do the Cardinals', so if I'm picking one unit here, it's Green Bay's. But again, so much is going to depend on what happens in that Vikings game.
Could Steve Breaston (and, for that matter, Matt Leinart) wind up sparkling in what might amount to a glorified preseason game? Sure, that could happen. Could I start those guys, or Brandon Jackson (he of the three vulture touchdowns last week) or James Jones or Matt Flynn or any of the other second-stringers who could see time in this game? In my fantasy championship? I don't think so.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. When Norv Turner tells reporters, "It's not a meaningless game," methinks he doth protest too much. Of course it is. Well, all right, the San Diego Chargers are staring a bye week in the face and want to stay sharp. I get that. So yes, Philip Rivers and his friends are going to start this game. I think they'll probably last into the second quarter, and maybe until halftime. But I'd be surprised if it winds up being any more than that. The Chargers are the AFC's No. 2 seed, no matter what.
Fantasy Up: So this is a late game in which your fantasy studs aren't likely to be declared inactive anyway. And that means you have to ask yourself: Can you take a chance on anyone in this game? Antonio Gates comes closest for me, because he's a safe passing option, and often a half for him is as good as a full game for a lot of guys who play his position. But really, even that's a total guess. On the Washington Redskins side, Fred Davis had a down Week 16, but is still a favored target of Jason Campbell, and deserves starter consideration. Otherwise? Boy, I'm worried about what happens here.
Fantasy Down: I mean, do Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson maybe try to push the envelope in the first couple of quarters, knowing they're going to be off for a couple weeks, so why not try and keep the chemistry rolling? If so, maybe that makes them worth starting even if they're going to sit later in the game. Is LaDainian Tomlinson really going to take another chance of hurting an ankle right before the playoffs, something that crushed the Chargers' chances of getting to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and which caused him to miss playoff starts last year as well? This is a tightrope that Turner has to walk. I don't know what the answer is.
I do know, however, that whatever fantasy redemption Campbell earned in the middle part of this season has been lost again with a couple of terrible performances the past two weeks. Yes, the Redskins' offensive line is a major part of the problem, but any advances Campbell made behind that crummy O-line in November appear forgotten. He looks lost again, and I can't believe the Redskins would consider bringing him back for 2010. I think you have to sit all those Skins skill players, including Santana Moss and Quinton Ganther. And Devin Thomas may have a high-ankle sprain, and seems unlikely to play this week; Malcolm Kelly likely will start opposite Moss.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Now that the Tennessee Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention, the only thing worth watching in this game is what kinds of records Chris Johnson can set. He's 128 rushing yards short of 2,000 (though Eric Dickerson's 2,105-yard single-season record seems out of the question). Bet on this: The Seattle Seahawks will key on Sonic the Hedgehog. And it won't matter, because the Titans will keep feeding it to him, come hell or high water.
Fantasy Up: With Julius Jones battling injured ribs, it seems there's a decent chance that Justin Forsett could get the start here, and go back to being a full-time back. The Titans haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their past eight games, but they do allow a lot of rushing touchdowns, and if you can get confirmation that Jones won't play, Forsett looks either like a No. 2 back or at least a flex to me this week.
It's so tough not to froth at the mouth over any passing attack that faces the Seahawks, because Seattle is just so terrible in the secondary, and their pass rush is inconsistent. But Vince Young didn't play well last Friday against the San Diego Chargers, failing to throw a touchdown for the first time since Week 9. More importantly, one does get the sense that this Titans game plan is going to focus so heavily on the run and Johnson that there might not even be 25 pass attempts available for VY. The matchup says Young should be rated higher than the No. 14 I gave him this week, but I just worry he'll be underused.
In a pinch, the Titans' defense isn't an awful bet, simply because of how poorly Matt Hasselbeck is playing. Did you see that little flipped-in-the-air interception to A.J. Hawk last week? Unbelievable.
Fantasy Down: Kenny Britt is going to give you good days, but he's also going to disappear on occasion, and the Titans didn't even start him against the Chargers; he only played in three-receiver sets. The jumble of Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage makes none of these guys usable. Bo Scaife, however, is 10th in the league in tight end targets and tied for eighth in tight end receptions over the past five weeks. Do I think he's great? I do not. Do I think he's the worst emergency option imaginable? No.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh continues to disappoint. I thought he'd be a free-agency bust considering how much money the Seahawks gave him, but there's no way I thought he'd be this bad. Listen, he is what he is: a possession receiver who runs really nice routes and has really good hands. But when you can't stretch the field and your quarterback plays as though he's shell-shocked, a good possession receiver just doesn't do you much good.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. The Baltimore Ravens (along with the New York Jets) have the clearest path to an AFC wild-card berth, though they have to travel across the country to play a sometimes-dangerous Oakland Raiders squad to get there. Certainly, the Ravens feel as though they were robbed on a few key penalties in Pittsburgh last week, but really, they need look no further than Derrick Mason's inconceivable drop of what would have been a game-winning touchdown (it hit him in the face mask).
Fantasy Up: Ray Rice just keeps churning out great yardage games; he only caught one pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but still had 31 touches for 155 yards from scrimmage. True, he's only got one touchdown since Week 10, but we'll take it. This should be an excellent matchup for him, and I'd assume the Ravens will put their playoff hopes in his hands.
Speaking of hands: oh, Mr. Mason. That was ugly. But run him right back out there. Joe Flacco has six touchdown passes the past two games and also merits starter consideration if, say, you're a Peyton Manning owner. Heck, Todd Heap has four touchdowns the past two weeks. If you're looking for a desperation tight end, you could probably do worse, though Heap really only gets looks these days when the Ravens throw it in the red zone.
Zach Miller was back from his concussion this past week against the Cleveland Browns and caught nine of his team-high 13 targets for a whopping 110 yards, putting to rest speculation that he needs JaMarcus Russell under center to produce big games. Against a Ravens linebacking corps that's strong against tight ends, and on a team with an offensive line that has big-time lapses, Miller's never going to be the safest play, but he should be a top-10 option this week.
Go ahead and use the Ravens defense. Their weakness in the playoffs (if they get there) figures to be a depleted secondary, but I can't get myself too nervous about the Raiders' passing game, despite Charlie Frye throwing for 333 yards last week.
Fantasy Down: With Justin Fargas out, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush split the Raiders' backfield job; Run-DMC had 78 yards from scrimmage on his 11 touches, while Bush had 59 yards on his 11 touches. Bush was the better runner, McFadden was the better receiver, and you can't consider using either in your title game.
Frye has always had a good arm and he did produce a 300-yard passing day against the Browns, but he also threw three picks, basically giving the game away as Cleveland was able to produce clock-killing drives after Oakland's turnovers. Don't get cute with the non-Zach Miller aspects of this passing game.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. The Denver Broncos were courageous in their comeback effort against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, but in the end Kyle Orton is what limits this team. His limitations are the same as they were in Chicago: He's so conservative that defenses know they can guard the short stuff, cram the line, and Orton's almost never going to beat them deep. The Broncos are 2-7 in their past nine, an eminently predictable fate for a team that was never as good as its early-season record, and they need help to make the playoffs even if they win here. Given the Oakland Raiders' upset at Mile High a couple of weeks back, don't discount the possibility of the lowly Kansas City Chiefs sticking close.
Fantasy Up: Jamaal Charles is a must-start, period. I was asked in Monday morning's chat session whether Charles deserved to be in the top 12 overall on 2010 draft boards, and I hedged like the waffler I am. I'm not there yet. First off, he's not a big man. Also, the Chiefs' offensive line is nowhere near ready for prime time. That combo -- small size and bad line -- doesn't bode well for Charles' longevity. That said, those calling him a Chris Johnson clone are on to something.
Brandon Marshall caught eight passes versus the Eagles, which made him a great play in a point-per-reception league, but he emerged with only 39 receiving yards and no scores, which was tough for the rest of us to swallow. You have to go back to that well, because Marshall is such a great red zone threat, and the hamstring he pulled in practice Wednesday doesn't sound serious. But it was a sobering result.
Despite the threat of Charles breaking big plays, you can use that Broncos defense, I think. Elvis Dumervil just set the franchise single-season sack record (with 17), and the wily secondary keeps creating turnovers. The Chiefs' offense has allowed opposing defenses to score 18, 18, 15, 11 and nine fantasy points the past five weeks, and one of those 18-point efforts came from this same Broncos defense in Week 13.
Fantasy Down: Yes, in a week when some star fantasy backs will sit, it might be tough not to use Knowshon Moreno. He did get in the end zone after he was able to burst upfield after catching a short pass over the middle Sunday. But Correll Buckhalter was back for the Broncos against the Eagles, and once again he looked like the better player. Seriously, if you squinted and didn't read their jersey numbers, you'd almost think the veteran Buckhalter was the up-and-coming hyped rookie. This is a tremendous matchup for this backfield tandem, and Buckhalter did seem to re-injure his leg at some point in the second half Sunday, so maybe Moreno finally does what he should have done against the Raiders a couple of weeks back. But I'm not holding my breath.
Dwayne Bowe caught nine of his 12 targets against the Cincinnati Bengals for 61 yards, but missed on what would have been a key reception when he got alligator arms across the middle. Bowe's ability is unquestioned, but his head needs to catch up with the rest of him. I can't see him as a top-20 option this week.
Jabar Gaffney scored two touchdowns Sunday (making Marshall's day substantially less happy), but some of that may have been circumstance: Eddie Royal missed the game with a neck injury and Brandon Stokley was ejected early for making contact with an official. I'm not counting on a repeat from Gaffney.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. Both of these squads are in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean this isn't the game of the week. The NFC East title is at stake, as is a home playoff game; in fact, there's a rather decent chance that these teams could face one another again next week in the wild-card game. The first time around, when these teams battled in Philly, it was frightening for Philadelphia Eagles fans to see Donovan McNabb show big-game jitters, as he made too many errant throws and a couple of big mistakes that let the Dallas Cowboys break in front in the fourth quarter. This time around, McNabb is coming off a mammoth game-winning drive against the Denver Broncos, while Tony Romo is maybe the hottest player in football. And really, with the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings sinking late in December, would it be a shock to see the winner of this tilt, armed with a first-round home game, go on a run to the Super Bowl?
Fantasy Up: Romo and Miles Austin have certainly elevated their games to the point that they're every-week must-starts, and DeSean Jackson is the same way: He didn't beat Champ Bailey deep Sunday, but he made a fine red zone catch for a touchdown anyway and now has 11 touchdowns (nine receiving, two punt returns).
It's time for me to give Donnie Football a little more love; he's been awfully consistent the past seven weeks. In that span, he's averaged 18 fantasy points per game; Romo, by comparison, has averaged 16.3. True, McNabb fumbled three times last week (losing one), and that has to stop. Plus the Eagles lost starting center Jamaal Jackson to a torn ACL versus the Broncos, and that's going to put a crimp in the Eagles' January plans. But listen, he's getting the ball down the field, and if he goes through bad streaks, at least he usually comes out of them faster than a lot of other NFL quarterbacks. This is by no means an easy matchup for McNabb, but I put him No. 8 among quarterbacks this week.
The tight ends here are eminently usable: Brent Celek has been good all year, and Jason Witten is just red-hot right now.
If you've been using either of these defenses all season, well, you probably just go ahead and use 'em again in this one, though I have to admit I really don't know how this one will go. Will we see McNabb reprise his shaky performance from November? Will the resurgent Cowboys secondary have a hard time reining in Jackson, as they often do against players with game-breaking speed? Can Romo get enough protection to survive against all those up-the-middle Philly blitzes? I ranked each of these defenses in the top 10 this weekend because they have great players, and they've performed well relatively consistently (with the occasional hiccup). But can I guarantee this one doesn't end up a 45-42, last-one-to-get-the-ball-wins kind of affair? I cannot.
Fantasy Down: Roy E. Williams caught a 4-yard score against the Redskins on Sunday night, but it was his only catch of the game, and once again he showed a shaky mental side, dropping balls and seeming to run the wrong route on occasion. Yes, it's surprising to see him with seven scores, but 596 yards receiving seems about right. He's nothing more than a Hail Mary No. 3 wideout fantasy play.
Jeremy Maclin made an incredible sideline tiptoe grab on the Eagles' game-winning drive versus the Broncos, proving he's healthy and back as a legit option in that Philly passing game. Six catches for 92 yards is a nice output, and I don't put another touchdown past him this weekend. But he's the fourth or fifth option in this offense.
And then there's the running-backs-by-agglomeration. So much for Brian Westbrook being eased back into the Eagles' offense; he led the team in carries with nine, was targeted on five passes and even assumed the Michael Vick role in Philly's goal-line offense. He's my highest-ranked Eagles rusher this week, but still, Leonard Weaver and LeSean McCoy are factors, so I probably wouldn't use any of them. And man, will the Cowboys please stop running those little fourth-and-1 line bucks with Marion Barber? They don't work. Barber has been a great short-yardage rusher in his career, but something's changed. Yes, he grabbed a 3-yard score versus the Redskins, and is the best Cowboys bet for a rushing score. But surely I'm not the only one who realizes Felix Jones is a better player?
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Analysis: Please note that the final two weeks of the season are shortened because of the holidays, so I won't have time to watch every game; my thoughts here are more general and based on what I've seen all season. This game will only mean something to the Cincinnati Bengals if the New England Patriots lose to the Texans earlier in the day. If that happens, the Bengals can move up from the No. 4 seed to the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win. Unfortunately, even then I'm not sure you're going to get a full effort out of them, as they're going to be tempted (like a lot of other teams slated to play on wild-card weekend) to rest some guys in the second half. The New York Jets, of course, control their own fate, and will be playing all out; one of the few Week 17 teams you can say that about unequivocally.
Fantasy Up: Thomas Jones actually took a back seat to Shonn Greene for big chunks of Sunday's win over the Indianapolis Colts, though he did wind up with 105 yards on 23 carries, while Greene had 95 yards on 16 carries. This doesn't mean you consider sitting Jones; heavens, no. It does make Greene an interesting flex play, though, as the Jets have all but announced their intention to not allow their rookie quarterback to sink their playoff aspirations. And that means using Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery or Dustin Keller in your fantasy title game would be foolhardy.
Cedric Benson's fantasy production is fading. Since he's returned from his midseason injury, Benson has scored 12, 9, 6 and 13 fantasy points, while scoring exactly zero touchdowns. I mean, he does have at least 96 yards rushing in three of those four contests, so I don't want to overstate the problem, plus it's not like Larry Johnson is turning into a huge threat to his carries (though he might, if the Bengals decide they need to rest guys Sunday night). Still, the fellow who was regularly tipping the scales above 15 fantasy points per week in the season's first half doesn't seem to be in a Bengals uniform any longer. Maybe the O-line has slacked off a little, but Benson also doesn't look as explosive. Plus the Jets are tough against the run. I dropped Benson to 15th on my running back list this week.
Carson Palmer doesn't scare me much. Chad Ochocinco will be guarded by Darrelle Revis. I think the Jets' fantasy defense continues to be a very nice and underrated play. Look for them to take advantage of any late substituting the Bengals might do (as they did against the Colts last week), and start them with confidence Sunday night.
And yet, despite all this uncertainty, I also don't hate using the Bengals' defense. That secondary, against that young quarterback? There's hay to be made.
Fantasy Down: The Jets were smart with Mark Sanchez last week. They played it very conservatively in the first half, hoping against hope that the Colts would live down to their pervious personnel pattern late in seasons, and sure enough, when the Curtis Painter administration began, New York took advantage. That meant Sanchez never really had to go down the field, and wound up with 19 pass attempts (compared to 44 runs). He's the furthest thing imaginable from a fantasy starter, even in a week in which so few guys are guaranteed to be on the field all day.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can ask him questions at www.facebook.com/writerboy.
Fantasy Top Headlines
Fantasy Focus Football
The debut of the monthly offseason edition features Nate Ravitz and Matthew Berry discussing the Jets' RBs, Brett Favre, Minnesota's WRs and Tom Brady's standing for next season.

