 | | Despite struggling at the plate, Pittsburgh third baseman Aramis Ramirez has enough talent to ensure another call-up to the majors. | |
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Loose Ends
As April rolls into May (none to soon for us soggy New Englanders), we're starting to get enough data on certain players and situations to make heads or tails of what's happening. Uncertainty can be a shrewd trader's best friend, so having an educated guess as to which players will get the playing time in Cincinnati's outfield is a source of potential leverage.
Cincinnati outfield
The crime of Cincinnati's five-headed outfield monster is that the worst of the lot, Dante Bichette, is in no danger of losing his job, despite a .584 OPS and a .209 batting average, not to mention supine defense. In fact, Bichette leads the team in at bats at 86. That said, his two-way ineptitude has opened the door for more playing time for the current reserves, particularly Alex Ochoa, the team's second-best defensive outfielder. Ochoa and fellow reserve Michael Tucker have made the most of their limited playing time; each is slugging .600 or better, and the two have combined for seven homers, 14 runs scored, and 12 RBI in just 63 AB. With Dmitri Young struggling a bit at the plate, both reserves will get significant playing time during the season ? and you can always hope Jim Bowden and Jack McKeon come to their senses about Bichette.
Pittsburgh third base
The man to get here is Aramis Ramirez. No, really. By now, the person in your league who owns Ramirez is frustrated and desperate to cover for his/her "mistake" in drafting the talented third baseman, and if the salary is attractive, you need to pounce. Ramirez is going to be a major-league power hitter, and he'll draw lots of walks for those of you in leagues that use OBA. He should come back to the majors soon, once he re-establishes his hitting prowess in AAA and once the Pirates feel the effects of the acute anemia caused by their new third-base combo, Mike Benjamin and Luis Sojo (neither of whom is worth picking up). Ramirez might even get lucky and find himself traded to a team that has a little more patience.
Houston outfield
With Moises Alou out -- and you shouldn't be surprised by that, given the severity of his 1999 injury -- and no Houston outfielder really tearing the cover off the ball, the Astros recalled Lance Berkman on Saturday. If he's a free agent in your league, he's a smart pickup, because Berkman can really hit: average, power, walks, everything but steals. In the meantime, however, the best trade target here is Richard Hidalgo, whose .250ish average belies a generally solid performance: His OPS remains over .900 because he's drawing enough walks and hitting for good power (seven doubles and five homers). Roger Cedeno is the next-best bet because he has better defensive skills than Daryle Ward or Berkman.
Minnesota closer
Sorry, I'm not a Bob Wells fan, although I'm really not a fan of anyone in this bullpen right now. You can't give up three hits every two innings and be an effective pitcher, regardless of whether it says "Closer" on your business card. If I had to gamble on someone here, it would be Hector Carrasco, the only Minnesota reliever to be effective at keeping hitters off the bases. Second choice is Eddie Guardado, whose high ERA is strictly a product of a horrid, 4-run, no-out outing he had on April 9; aside from that, he hasn't given up any runs, and has only put 10 men on in 7.2 innings. That's not great, but it'll suffice in this market. Don't expect anyone here to get more than 15 saves.
Kansas City closer
Last week, we smelled gas in the apartment, so we called the service company to have them come check it out. The guy came in with his little meter, but didn't find anything in the kitchen. He wound up finding the source of the gas odor: the television. I was watching a Royals game, and Ricky Bottalico -- who can turn even the slightest spark into a huge explosion -- was pitching. At least here, there's someone to like: Dan Reichert. The minor-league starter has excelled in a setup role, recording 15 strikeouts and allowing just eight hits in his first 14.1 innings, none of which is surprising given his minor-league successes last year. Reichert may be best suited for relief, since his diabetes can sap his strength over longer outings. His main competition is Jose Santiago, whose numbers are better but whose stuff (that fastball is straighter than Niles Crane) isn't.
Chicago outfield
The main problem in Chicago is centerfield, where Damon Buford is committing the mortal sin of being Damon Buford, which is exactly what the Cubs should have expected when they traded for him. (Apparently, they thought Manny Alexander would fetch them an All-Star.) With überprospect Corey Patterson starting to hit well at AA West Tenn, the Cubs are reportedly ready to send Buford to the bench. While benching Buford makes sense -- more sense than acquiring him made -- there's no reason to assume that Patterson is ready for the majors. Patterson is slugging .513, but that's in AA, so he'd slug quite a bit less even in the cozy confines of Wrigley. His plate discipline remains questionable -- six walks and 19 strikeouts in 80 at bats -- which is another harbinger of major-league struggles. I'd expect a Chad Hermansen performance if Patterson is promoted, with at least a 40 percent risk that he'll do poorly enough for the Cubs to return him to the minors.
New York rotations
Both the Yankees and Mets are facing rotation questions, albeit from different sources. The Mets have to be thrilled with what they've gotten so far from Glendon Rusch. Rusch was a top prospect with the Royals, but the inevitable Bob Boone mishandling derailed his career and eventually led the Royals to dump him for organization player Dan Murray. Rusch won't stay this good all season, but he's perfectly capable of an above-average ERA with a good ratio.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have had consistently inconsistent starting pitching all season, led by David Cone. Cone was a Panic Button candidate until he put together seven shutout innings on Friday night; since that was only his third win since his perfect game, color me unconvinced. Cone's control has been awful all year, and one good start can't overwhelm that.
Oakland centerfield
Terrence Long appears to be The Man, which is to say that Rich Becker and Ryan Christensen played like The Boys for the season's first three weeks. Becker has a great .397 on-base average, but his defense is no longer up to centerfield. Christensen has the leather and a .375 OBA, but all nine of his hits so far have been singles. If Long is unclaimed in your league, grab him, because he's going to get a long trial to prove himself worthy, and his only other competitor, Bo Porter, is showing little with the bat in AAA.
Boston rotation
With so many rainouts and Jekyll-and-Hyde performances, it's tough to get a handle on which Red Sox starters are worth having beyond Pedro. Each has his flaws: Ramon Martinez still hasn't shown himself able to go beyond five innings, Jeff Fassero still isn't throwing enough strikes, Brian Rose had one outing where he couldn't escape the first, and Pete Schourek is still Pete Schourek. With Bret Saberhagen rehabbing, Sun Woo Kim and Tomokazu Ohka pitching reasonably well in Pawtucket, and Jin Ho Cho coming off the DL soon, there will be pressure on the current crop of starters. Seniority considerations mean that Rose is most likely to lose his job, while the Sox' refusal to swallow contracts means that Ramon isn't going anywhere. You know my opinions on Fassero. Schourek is probably the sleeper here, as long as you keep your ratio expectations modest.
St. Louis outfield
Trying to predicting Tony LaRussa's next move is kind of like the tea-leaf reading that the CIA and National Security Agency engage in when trying to evaluate China: You get little bits of information, often contradictory, and then have to come to a conclusion that affects the security of the free world or the status of your fantasy team. With Ray Lankford struggling and JD Drew hotter than Georgia asphalt, what does Tony LaRussa do? Start Craig Paquette, natch! While Paquette and Howard are getting the at bats now, I have to agree with Rob Neyer, who said last week that talent like Drew's wins out in the end. Stay patient if you have Drew, and if you don't, now is probably the last chance you'll ever have to get him.
The Panic Button
Good week for Panic Button candidates, as Cone pitched well and Chris Holt tossed a one-hitter against the lowly Brewers. One candidate still hasn't pulled himself together, and he's our Panic Button winner for the week: Roy Halladay. Halladay's a classic case of letting the scouts have too much sway in player development. He has a great arm, but despite never posted good ratios in the minors, he found himself in the majors last year. While his control is slightly better than it had been in the past (13 walks in 25 innings), his K/BB ratio is 1 and he has allowed 40 hits in 25 innings -- meaning that he's not walking people because everyone is hitting him. About 40 percent of the batters to face Halladay have reached first base safely, which is obviously terrible. If you've been holding on to Halladay, hoping for a turnaround, it's time to give up.