Arizona pitcher Omar Daal's declining strikeout rates give reason for fantasy owners to worry about his future.

Some context
One important point to cover before we start is the overall statistical change we've seen so far this season around the strike zone. Many observers have talked about the change in the strike zone or the change in the umpires or the effect of the alignment of all nine planets in the same quadrant last week on the strike zone, but I haven't seen any attempt to quantify this change. When evaluating pitchers' performances, we always compare their numbers to those from previous seasons, so if the environment has changed, we need to know.

Year	AL BB/IP	AL K/P	NL BB/IP	NL K/IP
1999	.413	.693	.415	.744
2000	.421	.693	.451	.735

Obviously, I presented this for a reason. The AL has become a slightly less hospitable pitching environment, with a two percent increase in walks over last year. The NL, however, has become about as friendly to hitters as Tony Gwynn is to the guy who puts out the postgame spread: A two percent drop in strikeouts goes with a nearly nine percent increase in walks. The walk increase amounts to an extra two walks every three games, which is a significant shift in the overall balance between hitters and pitchers. The extra few walks won't hurt your ratio directly, and the impact will hit some pitchers more than it hits others. As pitchers find it harder to get strike calls, they're going to have to spend more time pitching right over the plate -- meaning earlier trips to the showers.

Whether this is a permanent sea change or a one-month fluke remains to be seen, but for now, don't be so surprised by four-walk outings from guys you once considered control pitchers.

Jose Lima, Houston
Sure, you could say now that there were signs; outside the Astrodome last year, Lima was just league-average (4.66 ERA, versus 2.31 at home). But Lima hasn't been average on the road this year: opposing teams are calling his hotel to pay for a free room upgrade so they can torch him to the tune of 7.71 earned runs per nine innings. His Jim Ackeresque susceptibility to the home run is also more than the product of the new ballpark, as he's surrendered five homers in 18.1 road innings.

There's no easy answer when something like this happens, unless the pitcher is hurt -- which Lima swears up and down he isn't -- and I doubt that's the case since Lima has looked sharp at times this year. Lima was a very good pitcher for the last two years, and had shown positive signs in his time in Detroit, so I find it hard to believe he's gone completely down the toilet. Most of his troubles have come from his new habit of hanging three or four curveballs a game, earning each of them a one-way ticket to the bleachers. His K/BB ratio remains good, if not as good as it has been, and he was much less hittable in his first three outings.

That said, there's nothing in the record so far to indicate that he's going to turn it around soon, or even this year. He's both homer-prone and hittable, and that's not the result of the new field.

If you're a Lima owner trying to contend in a mixed league, it's time to drop him or trade him, because there are too many better starters available in the pool. But in an NL-only league, hang in there for a few more starts.

If you're building for the future or are willing to take a big risk, Lima should be a major target. The talent is there, so unless he's got a torn ligament, it will come back. When that happens is the element of uncertainty, but if it happens in the next month, you'll have yourself a league-average or better starter who racks up the Ks.

Shane Reynolds, Houston
Sticking with the Houston theme: Reader Eugene Hung astutely pointed out that Shane Reynolds' K/IP and K/BB ratios are much worse this year than they had been in past years. Indeed, his ratio is up by about 0.15 over his 1999 figure, and he has had just two home starts to sully his numbers. He's also tiring earlier in his starts than he had in previous years, with hitters showing more power after the 75-pitch mark.

There are two factors at work here. The increased walk/strikeout ratio in baseball is impacting control-freak pitchers like Reynolds more than it's impacting power pitchers, and that's not likely to change this year. Furthermore, Reynolds is showing signs of arm fatigue, and that may or may not go away with time -- depending on whether he's hurt or just tired. Reynolds has always been a favorite of mine and I have a sneaking suspicion he'll pull it out, but the numbers say that it's a good time to trade him.

Mike Mussina, Baltimore
Mike Mussina has been among the AL's most reliable starters for the past five years, with just one poor ERA and one win total under 15 in that span (in different seasons). Mussina's off to a slow start statistically, but underlying the 1-3 record and the 4.56 ERA is a good 1.305 ratio and just one start where his K/BB ratio was under two. His terrible outing on May 4 makes this a good time to approach his frustrated owner with a trade offer.

David Cone, Yankees
David Cone showed some signs of life in his last two starts, including throwing seven shutout innings against the solid Toronto lineup. What this means for Cone owners is that it's time to shop him -- hard. Cone now has only three wins and four quality starts since his perfect game, and his pitches aren't showing the same life as they did in '98 and prior. The luster hasn't worn off, so his trade value is higher than it would be for a less famous pitcher with similar stats.

Jason Bere, Milwaukee
For those of you who ignored the advice you read here -- and in several other places -- and picked up Jason Bere anyway, well, you got what you asked for on Friday night -- 10 runs (nine earned) in the first two innings. And while he didn't give up another run in his remaining three innings, it's not like the Expos were trying to run the score up -- they swung at 10 of 13 pitches in the fifth. If you still have Bere, trade or drop him immediately before he does any more damage.

Omar Daal, Arizona
One reader asked me if Daal was just a one-year wonder in '99, which really floored me. Daal has been an effective major-league pitcher in three of the last four seasons, although 1996 came in the anonymity of the Montreal bullpen. In '98, his ERA was 2.88, placing him fifth in the NL, ahead of more famous guys like Curt Schilling and John Smoltz.

All that and 75 cents will get you a can of Coke in 2000, however, and Daal's been mediocre so far, with his overall numbers boosted by two great starts to open the season. A four-start slump is really not much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and as a Daal owner in one league, I'm not in any rush to move him. But one thing merits your attention: He has just 17 strikeouts in 39.2 innings, which is a 40 percent drop in his strikeout rate from '98-99. Six starts isn't much of a sample, but strikeout-rate declines like that often reveal an injury. Give him a few more starts before acting, but keep an eye on his strikeouts in each start.

Mike Sirotka, White Sox
How bad has Sirotka been? Try 12 strikeouts versus 11 walks in 27 innings bad. Try more than a homer every four innings bad. That's MTV's The Real World bad. His strikeout rate is way down, his walk rate is way up, and he's much more hittable than he's been in the past.

But in small samples, the totals don't tell the whole story. In three bad starts, Sirotka has given up all seven home runs, 17 earned runs (and five unearned runs), and 27 baserunners in 10 innings -- a 15.30 ERA and a 2.70 Ratio. But in three good starts, Sirotka has surrendered just two earned runs (plus three unearned runs) and 25 baserunners in 17.2 innings -- a 1.02 ERA (2.55 if you count the unearned runs) and a 1.415 Ratio. One of those guys is an acceptable pitcher. The other would be begging the Devil Rays for a tryout.

I own Sirotka in ToutWars, where I can slip him on my reserve list and hope he gets himself straightened out. If you can bench him, do so, because there's obviously still some of the 1999 vintage of Sirotka trapped in there. But if you don't have that option, there's no telling when Sirotka's going to stop putting up outings like Saturday's 3.1 9 7 7 3 0.

The Panic Button
Enough of the season has passed that we can start to consider hitters for the Panic Button. Tim Bogar earned consideration, but I doubt any of you bothered with him in the first place. Devon White bowed out by absconding to the DL. In their absence, I'm going with a guy who will get better over the course of the season, but won't reach his '99 level this year: Preston Wilson.

Wilson has his adherents, and he was a worthy Rookie of the Year candidate last year. He's a scouts' dream and looks like a baseball player. All that said, he's not much of a hitter beyond his ability to go yard. He drew just 46 walks last year in over 500 plate appearances while striking out 156 times, and his 26 home runs were just barely enough to put him over the .500 mark in slugging percentage. This year, his walk rate is better, but he has whiffed 48 times in 138 PAs through Sunday, accounting for over a third of his at bats. Wilson has the tools, but no one ever taught him the skills you need to be a successful power hitter in the majors, notably the ability to tell a ball from a strike more than once every three games.

Wilson will probably end the year with 20-25 homers and 60-75 RBIs, but his average will hurt you, and those power numbers aren't that special in this day and age. Shop him now while people still remember his '99 season.