More than 20 years ago, a Chicago sports fan named Ron Berler revealed to the world a shocking trend; in nearly every World Series since 1946, any team with three or more former Chicago Cubs on its roster went down to defeat.

Maddux

Gonzalez

This trend has since been dubbed "The Ex-Cub Factor," and brought to national attention by syndicated columnists like Mike Royko and George Will. As ex-Cubbies like Greg Maddux and Luis Gonzalez lead their respective N.L. clubs into battle this week, we can keep an eye on whether or not Wrigleyitis still wreaks havoc in the post-season.

But keep that other eye open for the effects of another inevitable trend. We might think of this as the Starting Pitchers: Astros/Rangers Expatriates (that's "SPARE" for the acronym-challenged) Factor.

Major League Baseball in the Lone Star State has never tasted a World Series, in no small part because the starting pitching offered up by the Rangers and Astros in their various forays into October baseball has never quite measured up. Neither team has ever won a single post-season series of any type, much less challenged for a championship.

Nolan Ryan -- the greatest pitcher in the history of both franchises -- never took Texas or Houston to the Fall Classic. Mike Scott, Joe Niekro, Mike Hampton, J.R. Richard, Randy Johnson ... no matter how well any of these ex-Astros pitched, Houston could never quite get over the hump of the pitching-rich Mets (Gooden-Darling-Cone) or Braves (Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz).

The Rangers, well ... the owner of the only post-season win in team history, John Burkett, isn't exactly headed to Cooperstown.

And the curse of the SPARE factor is alive and well in 2001.

Over in the National League, the Diamondbacks got off to a nice NLCS start behind ex-Astro Johnson, sure, but consider -- he was matched up with the ex-Cub Maddux. Besides, the Big Unit may have overturned his personal version of the SPARE factor by choosing to leave the Astros and turning down a huge offer from the Rangers all in the same off-season.

How ex-Astro Curt Schilling will fare for Arizona may be balanced by the efforts of ex-Ranger Burkett for the Braves. Call this series a draw, but look for continuing bad Diamondback karma if they keep going to the bullpen for ex-Ranger starter Mike Morgan and ex-Astro Greg Swindell. And who threw out the ceremonial first pitch before Arizona's 8-1 Game 2 drubbing? Ex-Ranger Todd Stottlemyre!

Garcia

Moyer

Ah, but the Mariners. Poor, poor Seattle. What chance do they have against the Yankees when their playoff rotation consists almost entirely of SPAREs? Ex-Ranger Aaron Sele has already fallen to the Yankees, while ex-Astro Freddy Garcia and ex-Ranger (and ex-Cub!) Jamie Moyer are next in line.

Last post-season, the Yankees rolled to another title, obviously in part because their post-season matchups were with the A's and ex-Ranger Gil Heredia, the Mariners behind Sele, Garcia and ex-Astro John Halama, and the Mets with ex-Ranger Rick Reed and ex-Astro Hampton.

Barring an ALCS MVP performance from fourth starter Paul Abbott, Seattle seems predestined by the SPARE factor to avoid playing in the first November Classic in Major League history.

And the Yankees? Well, it's true that reliever Mike Stanton spent some time in a Rangers uniform, but he falls outside the "starting pitcher" qualification to be considered SPARE. So the closest call the Bronx Bombers have is the righty-lefty combo of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte -- a pair of good ol' boy native Texans. And Clemens' alma mater, the University of Texas, at least won a couple of College World Series titles.

Finally, check the Yankees' post-season roster. Not a single ex-Cub. Maybe Ron Berler was on to something all those years ago.

Mick Doherty
Dallas, TX