Shea on Mike Hampton: "Mike Hampton to the Rockies? Oh boy. Every number I see from Hampton convinces me that he is possibly the biggest waste of money this offseason."

That's where your Excel spreadsheet can lead you to victory. There are trends in the 2000 stats and there are sleepers to be found.

I live and die by five formulas that, to me, constitute a winning fantasy player. For hitters, I like to see a high slugging percentage, on-base percentage (some combine this into OPS aka on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), and BB/K ratio. For pitchers, I look at the K/BB ratio, and K/9 ratio as indicators of performance. None of those statistics have any bearing on actual fantasy baseball standings, but they all formulate the makings of a great player. None of those statistics are found on Major League scoreboards, but you'll find a high correlation between excellent marks in those categories and winning baseball teams.

Applying these formulas to the hot stove league, one can make interesting observations. For instance, I was pleased to see that the Twins have apparently called off a Matt Lawton for Tony Clark trade. Lawton, you see, is a player I feel has a tremendous upside. He had a .402 on-base percentage last year, which is a direct result of his 1.4 BB/K ratio as a hitter. His slugging percentage, though, is a mediocre .460. If Lawton can continue to maintain his patience at the plate, his power numbers will go up. Last year, he hit .305 with 13 home runs and 88 RBIs. Clark, on the other hand, has numbers that can be seen as comparable. He hit .274 with 13 homers, 37 RBIs in 208 injury-riddled at-bats. His on-base percentage was lower than Lawton's at .349, which can be traced to his BB/K ratio of .5. His power numbers are much higher to even out the advantage with a slugging percentage of .529. If you were to judge, many consider this a draw. You trade Lawton's on-base percentage and average for Clark's power. I, though, see this as a player on the upswing (Lawton) versus a player on the decline (Clark). It doesn't hurt that Lawton stole 23 bags last year to Clark's zero.

I also shuddered at the thought of Pittsburgh signing perennial fantasy whipping boy Derek Bell and nearly ensuring another year of at least 400 at-bats for Bell. Bell hit .266 with 18 home runs and 69 RBIs last season. Bell's woefully mediocre .344 on-base percentage and .425 slugging percentage makes him a dime a dozen outfielder. Someone tell the Pirates.

Mike Hampton to the Rockies? Oh boy. Every number I see from Hampton convinces me that he is possibly the biggest waste of money this offseason. Hampton went from 22-4 to 15-10 in 2000. He is, at best, a 15-win type pitcher.

It is in K/BB ratio and K/9 that Hampton's success seems all the more remarkable. He is neither dominant nor precise and crafty. Hampton's 1.5 K/BB ratio is pedestrian and falls a full point below current (but maybe not for long) Colorado pitcher Pedro Astacio. Hampton doesn't strike out many at 6.3 per nine innings. Astacio, by comparison, strikes out 8.9.

Hampton could walk himself into trouble at Coors Field and won't be able to extricate himself with strikeouts. His low home run per nine innings ratio of 0.4 will likely go up in the thin air. Hampton may struggle mightily in Coors. Let's say he's 13-12 with a 4.40 ERA -- much worse than his 15-10, 3.15 ERA of 2000.

Atlanta has once again found a way to move out a player on his downslide as they purposely let Andres Galarraga head via free agency to Texas. The Big Cat was adversely affected by his year off for cancer and his numbers declined dramatically in 2000. His slugging percentage was down from .595 in 1998 to .526 in 2000 after his one year off. On-base percentage cooled to .369 from .397. At age 39, I don't expect Galarraga's numbers to rebound much, if they don't decline further. His .302 average with 28 home runs and 100 RBIs in 2000 were major declines from .305/44/121 in 1998. He'll be around 30 homers and 110 RBIs in 2001, but he's not worth bidding the farm in your auction or draft.

Texas signed Ken Caminiti to play third base, giving up on the Mike Lamb project at third base. Health is the one overriding concern for Cammy throughout his career. In 2000, Caminiti managed only 208 at-bats for the Astros. Of course, in those 200-plus at-bats, he put up a sick .582 slugging percentage and a startling .419 on-base percentage to go with his .303 average, 15 homers and 45 RBIs. Was it the Enron Effect? Hardly. Caminiti had higher slugging (.590 to .571) and on-base (.453 to .377) percentages on the road. If you want to take a flyer, grab Caminiti in what could be a high-octane Rangers offense.

Newest Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina will undoubtedly benefit from a change in scenery. Mussina was hardly dominating in '99, but his numbers have not declined to the point where he can no longer sparkle. His K/BB ratio is 4.5 and his K/9 ratio is 7.9 -- numbers that imply he can dominate in the 18-win range for the world champs. Play up his 11-15 record in 2000 and snare him in the draft if you can.

Ellis Burks may be the free agent that most benefits from a move to the DH-friendly American League. Burks scores high in both the BB/K ratio (1.1) for hitters and the slugging (.606) and on-base percentage (.425). What has always hurt him is injuries -- in fact Burks only had 393 at-bats for San Francisco in 2000. Expect him to snag over 500 at-bats this year and watch his numbers (.344, 25 HR, 96 RBIs in 2000) rise dramatically in Cleveland.

As for our buddy, A-Rod? Well, whether it's hot summers in Texas or misty Seattle, this guy can hit anywhere. Rodriguez had a .83 BB/K ratio -- solid, but not spectacular. He also put up a .420 on-base percentage and a .606 slugging percentage. Those are numbers that will not diminish in Texas and another .320, 40-homer, 130-RBI year is on the way. Of course, you didn't need a spreadsheet to know that.

* Glossary of formulas:
Slugging percentage = Total Bases divided by At Bats.
On-base percentage = (Hits plus Walks plus Hit by Pitcher) divided by (At Bats plus Walks plus Hit by Pitcher plus Sacrifice Flies).
BB/K ratio = walks divided by strikeouts for hitters
K/BB ratio = strikeouts divided by walks for pitchers
K/9 ratio = strikeouts times 9 divided by innings pitched