Shea on Kazuhiro Sasaki: "Sasaki presents little risk and is good for 35-40 saves this year."

In an attempt to shed some light on closer jobs across the majors, I am going to attempt to analyze every bullpen in the majors. It certainly won't end the speculation, but maybe a few of the letters.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Anaheim Angles
Closer: Troy Percival
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Analysis: Percival has had arm problems the last few years and may have lost some velocity and effectiveness. He is a candidate for injury or for just plain losing his job. Hasegawa had a great second half last year (1.88 ERA) but is not a closer-worthy pitcher and would be a short-term solution at best if Percival falters. Another candidate could still emerge.

Baltimore Orioles
Closer: Ryan Kohlmeier
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Mike Trombley
Analysis: Kohlmeier could easily lose his job. He's still very young and 5.8 K/9 and 1.1 K/BB ratios are dangerous. Hedge your bets with Trombley, who has more experience and had 9.0 K/9 and 1.9 K/BB ratios last season. Kohlmeier's ability to keep the job, though, may be influenced by the Orioles' rebuilding mode.

Boston Red Sox
Closer: Derek Lowe
Vulnerability Factor: Extremely low
Darkhorse: Rod Beck
Analysis: There was talk of thrusting Lowe into the rotation in the offseason if Tom Gordon could return, but Gordon signed with the Cubs. It appears Lowe will stay put with Beck setting him up.

Chicago White Sox
Closer: Keith Foulke
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Bob Howry
Analysis: Foulke is one of the better closers in the game, but Howry is very effective also. Manager Jerry Manuel likes to rely on both and each pitcher will get his share of saves. Just expect 70-80 percent to go to Foulke.

Wickman

Cleveland Indians
Closer: Bob Wickman
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Steve Karsay, Paul Shuey
Analysis: Even though Karsay will likely start the season in the rotation because of Jaret Wright's slow recovery from shoulder surgery, he has shown the ability to handle the job and can step in at any point. If not closing or starting, he could sneek more than five saves in a setup role. Wickman can be frustrating for a manager, but has had several consistent years in a row. Shuey has great skills, but a rep for not having the mental makeup to be a closer. Karasy might be the best pitcher of the bunch.

Detroit Tigers
Closer: Todd Jones
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Matt Anderson
Analysis: Jones has been a target of trade rumors the last few years and could be dealt in the summer if the Tigers are out of contention. Anderson showed signs of improvement last season, but he still walks (5.5 BB/9) too many batters to be truly counted on.

Kansas City Royals
Closer: Roberto Hernandez
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Jose Santiago, Doug Henry
Analysis: Hernandez is 36 and starting to show signs of losing his effectiveness. Unfortunately, Kansas City has little else to choose from. Santiago could handle the role in limited doses, as could journeyman middle reliever Doug Henry.

Minnesota Twins
Closer: LaTroy Hawkins
Vulnerability Factor: Extremely High
Darkhorse: Bob Wells and Eddie Guardado
Analysis: If Hawkins keeps the job for the year, I'll be shocked. Last year's numbers support Wells as a safer pick, but would the young Twins want to start developing a 34-year-old closer?

New York Yankees
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Mike Stanton
Analysis: Rivera was a little less dominant in 2000, but he's still the safest bet in the game. Stanton is the main setup man and would inherit the role in the event of injury.

Oakland Athletics
Closer: Jason Isringhausen
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate to High
Darkhorse: Jeff Tam, Jim Mecir
Analysis: Angry readers jumped all over me last spring for suggesting that Isringhausen could lose his job. After recording 33 saves in 2000, I still remain dubious of his skills. He's the sexier pick than Tam or Mecir. Expect him to keep his job, just don't expect me to like it.

Seattle Mariners
Closer: Kazuhiro Sasaki
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Jose Paniagua and Arthur Rhodes
Analysis: Sasaki presents little risk and is good for 35-40 saves this year. Paniagua would be next in line for the job, while Rhodes could pick up a few long-inning saves.

Sturtze

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Closer: Esteban Yan
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Tanyon Sturtze and Doug Creek
Analysis: Yan has the numbers to get it done in the post-Hernandez era. Sturtze is his biggest competition, while Creek is the pen's tough lefty who could see an occasional situational save.

Texas Rangers
Closer: Tim Crabtree
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Jeff Zimmerman, Jeff Brantley and Francisco Cordero.
Analysis: Crabtree is the best bet right now. Memories of Zimmerman's '99 season are still fresh, while Brantley has the wits to continue to get people out. Cordero is the fireballer of the future, but may not be ripe enough for this year. This bullpen is a total toss-up. I don't see a clear victor here and expect multiple people will earn saves. Might be a great place for a $1 investment that could net you 10 saves from any of these guys. In order, I'd go Crabtree (who could cost $15), Brantley, Zimmerman and then Cordero. This and the Phillies' pen will be the bullpens to watch this year.

Toronto Blue Jays
Closer: Billy Koch
Vulnerability Factor: Moderately Low
Darkhorse: Kelvim Escobar
Analysis: Koch throws extremely hard and could be an injury risk, but he's been dominant for a couple years now. Escobar has been switched to the pen and has always had closer-worthy stuff. Dan Plesac could see a lefty situational save or two, but won't be a factor. If Toronto can resist the thought of putting Escobar back in the rotation where he has been much less successful, then he could save 5-10 games with potential for more if Koch faces injury.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona Diamondbacks
Closer: Matt Mantei
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Byung-Hyun Kim
Analysis: Mantei has a history of arm problems, but responded with a great second half last year. Kim had an unforgettable (good) first half and an unforgivable (bad) second half. Still, he has unhittable written all over him. There will be a day when Kim is just too good for a setup role. That day could be a year or two off, though.

Atlanta Braves
Closer: John Rocker
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Kerry Ligtenberg and Mike Remlinger
Analysis: Rocker is still a trade candidate, remains combustible and can have fits of wildness. That being said, he was virtually unhittable (1.25 ERA) in the second half last year. Ligtenberg and Remlinger remain two of the better setup men in the game, but I see Rocker snaring 40 saves this year.

Chicago Cubs
Closer: Tom Gordon
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Kyle Farnsworth
Analysis: Gordon is coming off elbow sugery and is, therefore, a high risk. Yet, there is little competition in the Cubs' bullpen and this job appears to be his. Farnsworth has the arm, but walks six batters per nine innings.

Cincinnati Reds
Closer: Danny Graves
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: John Riedling or Dennys Reyes
Analysis: Graves walks a bunch and doesn't strike out many. Plus, he's thrown an enormous amount the last two years under the torture, er, tenure of Jack McKeon. If there's a closer with risk attached to his health and effectiveness, this is the guy. Riedling looks like he will earn a spot in the bullpen and could make you a genius in your draft. Reyes is predominately a middle reliever, but has been effective and could be serviceable if thrust into the closer role.

White

Colorado Rockies
Closer: Jose Jimenez
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Gabe White
Analysis: I don't trust any closer in Coors. Jimenez showed his worth last year with a 3.21 ERA and 24 saves. Still, he didn't set the world on fire in terms of strikeouts and control. White deserves this job, but may have to wait for Jimenez to explode before getting it. Jimenez may do just enough to keep the job this year.

Florida Marlins
Closer: Antonio Alfonseca
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Dan Miceli and Braden Looper
Analysis: Alfonseca is the Boris Yeltsin of closers. Just when you think he's on his deathbed, he puts up 45 saves. Well, just like Boris, this could be the year Alfonseca is removed from power in Florida. Miceli is a $1-2 reliever who could net big gains if given the opportunity. Looper has not put up the numbers to support being a closer, but is still in the mix.

Houston Astros
Closer: Billy Wagner
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Mike Jackson and Octavio Dotel
Analysis: Wagner is returning from season-ending elbow surgery and has already succumbed to a strained groin in spring training. Jackson has pitched well in the spring and should see a few save opportunities. Dotel handled the job with reasonable effectiveness last year and would be an option if injuries were to strike Wagner again.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Closer: Jeff Shaw
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Mike Fetters and Terry Adams
Analysis: Shaw rebounded with an excellent second half and should remain as the closer. In the event of injury, Fetters would be the best option.

Milwaukee Brewers
Closer: Curtis Leskanic
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Valerio De los Santos
Analysis: Leskanic walks too many to be a long-term option. De los Santos is the trendy pick to wrestle the job from him. De Los Santos struck out an average of nine batters per game in the second half of 2000, but still finished the year with a 5.16 ERA.

Strickland

Montreal Expos
Closer: Ugueth Urbina
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Scott Strickland
Analysis: Urbina had two elbow surgeries last season, but is said to be fine this spring. Strickland is one of the best hedge bets in fantasy baseball. His ratios were excellent last season (9.0 K/BB and 3.0 K/BB) and could easily land the role through injury. Another factor is a trade possibility with Urbina. If he stays healthy, he could very well be traded mid-season. The Expos have shown a propensity to do this in the past and probably feel Strickland can handle the job.

New York Mets
Closer: Armando Benitez
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: John Franco
Analysis: Benitez is dominating and should reach 40 saves again. Franco could thrive with the opportunity, but his best days are behind him. He's now the aging setup man/situational lefty.

Philadelphia Phillies
Closer: Ricky Bottalico/Jose Mesa
Vulnerability Factor: Extremely High
Darkhorse: Vicente Padilla and Wayne Gomes
Analysis: Bottalico and Mesa are time-bombs. Padilla is the future and should get the job at some point this season. Gomes is being ignored this spring, but could prove to be a great $1, end-of-the-draft bargain. You can easily envision a scenario where Bottalico and Mesa falter and the Phillies don't want to rush Padilla. Who's left? Gomes is, that's who.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Closer: Mike Williams
Vulnerability Factor: High
Darkhorse: Jose Silva
Analysis: Williams is a mediocre closer when healthy. He's not always healthy, however. Silva could develop into a solution, but has not shown the ability to do so thus far in his career. Williams should keep the job, but he's not going to be Fireman of the Year.

St. Louis Cardinals
Closer: Dave Veres
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Jason Christiansen, Mike Timlin and Steve Kline.
Analysis: Veres has the numbers to keep the job and will. Timlin will see a few saves, with Christiansen snaring a situational lefty save or two. Kline is a major darkhorse, but could pick up a few long saves and is in the mix.

San Diego Padres
Closer: Trevor Hoffman
Vulnerability Factor: Low
Darkhorse: Tom Davey
Analysis: Hoffman is as sure a bet as there is. His number of saves depends on his opportunities and San Diego's success as a team. I'm guessing 35 saves.

Rodriguez

San Francisco Giants
Closer: Robb Nen
Vulnerability Factor: Moderate
Darkhorse: Felix Rodriguez
Analysis: Nen has a history of elbow problems, but was incredibly successful last year. Rodriguez, though, is one of the best setup men in the game. In the event of injury, Rodriguez would be one of the better closers in the game.

LETTERS OF THE WEEK
After enlisting help on the whereabouts of Dave Nilsson, I received approximately 75 letters on the subject with amusing results. Many of you appeared to be guessing at his whereabouts, prompting me to ask, "Why did you write in?" Heck, I can guess, too. Nilsson is not in the Japanese League, although he did play there last year. He has not been signed by the Yankees, although their rival, the Red Sox, did look at him. He failed his physical with Boston and has returned to Australia. He has turned down all offers and intends to spend more time with his family. I wouldn't count him out from ever returning, since he's only 31, but he may stay content in retirement. It's not easy to return after any time off, let alone more than a year.

I also received a slew of letters about Scott Rolen's back problems and my offhand mention of him playing on the "turf at the Vet." Many wrote in to say that I was flat-out wrong about the subject, since the Vet had put down new turf in the offseason. Well, readers, you were right. Veterans Stadium will be using a new substance called "Nexturf." Craig Beam wrote that "I need to do my homework" on the subject. To that I say, "Craig, is Nexturf not actually turf?" Maybe it's a new form of Kentucky bluegrass.

While, I'm sure Rolen's back problems are behind him due to this new turf. I'm still taking a pass on him come draft day, though. I kid, but I do appreciate all the letters.