This article takes a look at how the Atlanta Braves did
in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an
overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Projected Actual
Runs for 772 840
Runs allowed 614 661
Run margin 158 179
Wins 96 103
Pythagorean Wins 99 100
Placement 1st 1st
The Braves were once again the favorites to win the division,
and that they did, with a few more victories than projected. Scoring
was way up in the NL this year, with the average team racking
up 65 more runs than the year before, and the Braves were in step
with those increases on both sides of the ball. The offense dropped
from 4th to 7th in the league in runs from 1998 to 1999, and while
their pitching was again the best in the league, the rest of the
division and the league did some catching up this year.
The Braves did a good job of patching up the weak spots and
covering for the injuries, but they need an infusion of young
talent soon to maintain the dynasty. Fortunately for Braves fans,
the farm system looks to be in good shape, and ownership has been
willing to spend to get free agent help where the farm system
didn't provide a solution.
Key Position Players
The offense for Atlanta managed to stay around the league average
even though Andres Galarraga spent the year undergoing cancer
treatment, Javy Lopez was lost to injury, and they received little
production from the middle infield. Of course, a breakthrough
MVP performance from your third baseman will cover a lot of ills.
The Braves also got some good stopgap performances in the outfield,
but Brian Jordan and Gerald Williams aren't the long-term answers
there. The outfield problems aren't as pressing as the middle
infield problems, or probably even the first base problem, but
to continue to hold off the Mets, the Braves are going to have
to upgrade their offense.
Javy Lopez, c, age 28 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 527 147 25 1 32 70 97 6 36 6 93 3 3 .279 .328 .512 .840 83
Prorated Atl 245 68 11 0 14 32 45 2 16 2 43 1 1 .278 .323 .494 .817 36
Actual Atl 246 78 18 1 11 34 45 3 20 2 41 0 3 .317 .375 .533 .908 47
Lopez was on his way to another outstanding season when he
injured his knee. Assuming a successful rehab, he should continue
to be a quality backstop for the Braves.
Eddie Perez, c , age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 97 25 5 0 3 11 14 1 7 0 17 0 0 .258 .311 .402 .713 12
Prorated Atl 307 79 15 0 9 34 44 3 22 0 53 0 0 .257 .310 .394 .705 37
Actual Atl 309 77 17 0 7 30 30 6 17 4 40 0 1 .249 .299 .372 .671 33
The only thing unexpected about Perez' performance last year
was the playing time. With Lopez lost to injury, Perez became
the regular. Perez is a reasonable backup catcher, but there's
quite a falloff from Lopez to Perez. If the Braves have any concerns
about Lopez' health, they might want to upgrade here.
Greg Myers, c , age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 386 96 22 1 8 41 48 0 31 3 66 0 1 .249 .302 .373 .675 41
Prorated SD 129 32 7 0 2 13 16 0 10 1 22 0 0 .248 .300 .349 .649 13
Actual SD 128 37 4 0 3 9 15 0 13 2 14 0 0 .289 .355 .391 .745 17
Prorated Atl 79 19 4 0 1 8 9 0 6 0 13 0 0 .241 .294 .329 .623 7
Actual Atl 72 16 2 0 2 10 9 0 13 2 16 0 0 .222 .337 .333 .671 9
Prorated Tot 208 51 11 0 4 22 25 0 16 1 35 0 0 .245 .298 .356 .654 21
Actual Tot 200 53 6 0 5 19 24 0 26 4 30 0 0 .265 .348 .370 .718 26
Myers was acquired to back up Perez when Lopez went out. He
was having a pretty good season as a backup in San Diego, but
didn't fare as well in limited time in Atlanta. Myers is a free
agent, and probably not high on the Braves' priority list.
Andres Galarraga, 1b, age 38
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 67 18 3 0 4 11 13 2 6 1 17 1 1 .269 .347 .493 .839 11
Apparently, the Braves expect Galarraga to be back at first
next year. Galarraga turns 39 next June, and didn't play at all
this past season because he was being treated for lymphoma. It's
a great feel-good story if the Big Cat makes it back and hits
like he did in 1998, but not something I'd bet the bank on. If
Galarraga were to match this projected level of performance for
a whole season next year, he'd be a below average offensive first
baseman. At Galarraga's age, he's already on the steep part of
the downward curve, and after a year without facing real pitching,
I'd be surprised to see him hit even that well.
Brian Hunter, 1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 78 18 5 0 3 9 11 1 4 0 13 1 1 .231 .274 .410 .684 8
Prorated Atl 204 47 13 0 7 23 28 2 10 0 34 2 2 .230 .271 .397 .668 20
Actual Atl 181 45 12 1 6 28 30 4 31 1 40 0 1 .249 .367 .425 .792 29
Hunter is a free agent, though he might end up back in Atlanta.
He's not the answer at first base, even as half a platoon, but
he's a reasonable bench player.
Ryan Klesko, 1b/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 559 148 31 4 26 85 94 4 68 7 122 5 4 .265 .346 .474 .821 92
Prorated Atl 410 108 22 2 19 62 68 2 49 5 89 3 2 .263 .343 .466 .809 66
Actual Atl 404 120 28 2 21 55 80 2 53 8 69 5 2 .297 .376 .532 .908 84
The above numbers look pretty good at first relative to the
projections, but then you look at the projected number of plate
appearances and the actual number. Klesko didn't miss that much
time due to injury; the low number of plate appearances are because
he was platooned. Klesko didn't hit lefties last year, and he
hasn't hit lefties in the last five years. At his age, he's unlikely
to suddenly start. So, Klesko is at best a partial solution at
first base or left field, which may be why there are rumors the
Braves are shopping him. That would seem to be betting a lot on
Galarraga, and I would expect Klesko plus a platoon partner to
out-hit Galarraga.
Randall Simon, 1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 74 17 4 0 1 7 11 0 1 0 9 0 0 .230 .240 .324 .564 5
Prorated Atl 233 53 12 0 3 22 34 0 3 0 28 0 0 .227 .237 .318 .555 15
Actual Atl 218 69 16 0 5 26 25 1 17 6 25 2 2 .317 .367 .459 .826 33
On the other hand, maybe the Braves are betting on Simon, not
Galarraga. On the third hand, Simon hasn't shown he can hit lefties,
either, and even against mostly righties, the above numbers are
below the league average for first basemen. On the fourth hand,
Simon's still young enough to show more improvement, and one positive
sign is that he drew a lot more walks than projected. Even so,
I just don't see Simon turning out to be the answer at first base.
Bret Boone, 2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 546 133 28 1 17 61 76 4 42 3 104 5 4 .244 .300 .392 .692 61
Prorated Atl 606 147 31 1 18 67 84 4 46 3 115 5 4 .243 .298 .386 .684 67
Actual Atl 608 153 38 1 20 102 63 5 47 0 112 14 9 .252 .310 .416 .726 77
Boone has decided not to exercise his option to demand a trade,
but is potential trade bait anyway, according to the rumors, possibly
in exchange for Barry Larkin. Despite the 20 homers and 38 doubles,
Boone was below league average in batting average, on base percentage,
and slugging percentage for second basemen. The problem with trading
him to solve the shortstop problem is who do you put at second
base? The best middle infield prospects in the farm system are
probably still at least a year away.
Keith Lockhart, ph/2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 69 16 4 0 1 9 8 0 5 0 7 0 1 .232 .280 .333 .613 6
Prorated Atl 169 39 9 0 2 22 19 0 12 0 17 0 2 .231 .279 .320 .598 15
Actual Atl 161 42 3 1 1 20 21 1 19 0 21 3 1 .261 .337 .311 .648 19
Nothing special as a pinch-hitter, and getting pretty old to
be the backup utility infielder, but is signed through next season.
Ozzie Guillen, ss, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 69 17 3 1 0 8 6 0 4 0 5 1 1 .246 .284 .319 .603 6
Prorated Atl 234 57 10 3 0 27 20 0 13 0 17 3 3 .244 .280 .312 .592 20
Actual Atl 232 56 16 0 1 21 20 0 15 2 17 4 2 .241 .284 .323 .607 21
Guillen performed very close to expectations, except that the
Braves played him a lot more than they probably would have liked
to. Guillen was never very good with the bat, and he doesn't have
the same reputation with the glove he once had.
Walt Weiss , ss, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 486 121 23 1 2 70 36 4 82 2 76 8 2 .249 .359 .313 .672 62
Prorated Atl 269 67 12 0 1 38 19 2 45 1 42 4 1 .249 .358 .305 .663 34
Actual Atl 279 63 13 4 2 38 29 3 35 1 48 7 3 .226 .315 .323 .637 32
Weiss played less than expected, and worse than expected when
he did play. No wonder the Braves expressed more interest in Alex
Rodriguez than Ken Griffey, Jr. Shortstop is one of the more pressing
needs for this team, but also one where they may have some potential
help in the farm system in a couple of years, with top prospect
Rafael Furcal ticketed for AA ball this spring.
Jose Hernandez, ss, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 520 129 23 7 23 83 76 1 42 4 146 5 6 .248 .304 .452 .756 67
Prorated ChN 354 87 15 4 15 56 51 0 28 2 99 3 4 .246 .299 .438 .737 44
Actual ChN 342 93 12 2 15 57 43 5 40 3 101 7 2 .272 .357 .450 .807 57
Prorated Atl 164 40 7 2 7 26 24 0 13 1 46 1 1 .244 .299 .439 .738 20
Actual Atl 166 42 8 0 4 22 19 0 12 3 44 4 1 .253 .302 .373 .675 18
Prorated Tot 519 128 22 6 22 82 75 0 41 3 145 4 5 .247 .301 .439 .740 65
Actual Tot 508 135 20 2 19 79 62 5 52 6 145 11 3 .266 .339 .425 .764 75
Hernandez had a fine half-season in Chicago, but didn't sustain
that pace in Atlanta. A free agent, he could wind up back in Atlanta
if the Braves don't find another solution to their shortstop woes.
He's a better answer than Weiss or Guillen.
Mark DeRosa, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 68 14 3 0 1 7 5 1 5 0 8 1 1 .206 .270 .294 .564 5
Prorated Atl 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .143 .143 .143 .286 0
Actual Atl 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
DeRosa spent most of the season in AAA, where he struggled
with the jump from AA. His minor league performance doesn't suggest
that he's the answer at short next season.
Chipper Jones, 3b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 555 165 31 2 26 103 99 0 81 3 83 15 4 .297 .383 .501 .884 109
Prorated Atl 605 179 33 2 28 112 107 0 88 3 90 16 4 .296 .382 .496 .878 117
Actual Atl 567 181 41 1 45 116 110 2 126 18 94 25 3 .319 .441 .633 1.074 165
After hitting 12 homers in the 4 previous seasons against lefties,
the switch-hitting Jones hit 15 last season alone. Jones has never
had a large platoon differential, except that he never hit for
power against lefties. Until this year. Fifteen homers in 142
at-bats against lefties definitely qualifies as hitting with power
against lefties. The landslide MVP winner is the reason the Braves
will probably be looking to reload rather than rebuild over the
next few years.
Gerald Williams, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 103 26 6 1 2 14 10 1 4 0 17 4 2 .252 .284 .388 .673 11
Prorated Atl 437 110 25 4 8 59 42 4 16 0 72 16 8 .252 .282 .382 .664 45
Actual Atl 422 116 24 1 17 76 68 6 33 1 67 19 11 .275 .335 .457 .792 63
Williams projected to be a bench player, but ended up playing
a lot of left field as part of the domino effect of Galarraga
not playing first. He performed better than expected, but not
as well as you would like for your regular left fielder. The Braves
are better off with Williams as a role player off the bench. The
best outfield prospect in the organization, George Lombard, might
be ready to take Williams' job next year.
Otis Nixon, lf/ph, age 40
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 594 166 12 7 0 86 30 1 64 0 78 54 12 .279 .349 .323 .672 74
Prorated Atl 156 43 3 1 0 22 7 0 16 0 20 14 3 .276 .343 .308 .651 18
Actual Atl 151 31 2 1 0 31 8 0 23 1 15 26 7 .205 .309 .232 .540 14
A free agent, this is probably the end of the line for Nixon.
It happened a lot later than I ever would have guessed - after
17 seasons.
Andruw Jones, cf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 587 156 32 7 31 92 96 4 49 6 134 27 7 .266 .325 .503 .827 95
Prorated Atl 616 163 33 7 32 96 100 4 51 6 140 28 7 .265 .323 .497 .820 99
Actual Atl 592 163 35 5 26 97 84 9 76 11 103 24 12 .275 .365 .483 .848 106
The homers weren't quite as high as projected, but it's encouraging
to see Andruw Jones show more patience at the plate. These are
very nice numbers for anyone, but for a 22 year old, they're outstanding.
He's not quite as good as Griffey was at that age, but there aren't
many other players to compare him to, because most 22-year-olds
are still playing minor league ball, not finishing their third
full major league season. The Braves reportedly balked at giving
up Jones or Kevin Millwood as part of a Griffey deal. It's an
interesting call: will the next five years of Andruw Jones be
better than the next five years of Ken Griffey, Jr.? Griffey had
a breakout year at age 23, and while Jones shows the potential
to go up another level, it's still potential at this point.
[TT: Any comparison of Griffey and Jones must take defense
into account, and Jones has not only surpassed Griffey in the
past two years, he's become the best defensive CF in baseball.
If I'm Seattle, I'm willing to trade Griffey for Jones and a good
starting pitcher. In fact, I might even be willing to make the
deal without the pitcher, since I'd be able to use the money I'd
save on Griffey's huge salary to help the club in other areas.]
Brian Jordan, rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 600 178 35 3 21 97 93 11 39 2 77 19 5 .297 .348 .470 .818 97
Prorated Atl 590 175 34 2 20 95 91 10 38 1 75 18 4 .297 .347 .463 .810 94
Actual Atl 576 163 28 4 23 100 115 9 51 2 81 13 8 .283 .346 .465 .811 94
Jordan's numbers were right in line with expectations, and
while right field might not be the most pressing problem for the
Braves, here's another place where they got below-league-average
offensive production.
George Lombard, ph/lf/rf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 65 15 3 0 2 10 7 1 7 1 21 4 1 .231 .311 .369 .680 8
Prorated Atl 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 0
Actual Atl 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 .333 .429 .333 .762 1
Atlanta's top outfield prospect, Lombard spent most of the
season at AAA, where he struggled at the plate while fighting
injuries. A healthy Lombard bounced back with a strong showing
in the Arizona Fall League, where he led in homers and RBIs and
was named league MVP. The Braves hope that his fall performance
is indicative of things to come, and that he will contend for
an outfield spot as soon as next spring.
Key Pitchers
The Atlanta pitching staff was still the class of the National
League, but not by the margin they used to enjoy. The Big Three
all showed signs of decline this year, and the Atlanta brain trust
has some hard decisions ahead: how and when do you move out three
of the more dominant pitchers of the decade? Kevin Millwood's
emergence this year was a welcome sight, and the Big Three aren't
exactly ready for the scrap heap yet, so the challenge is how
to transition to a younger staff while remaining in contention.
Given the needs on the offensive side of the ledger, it seems
a likely proposition that one of them will be traded sooner rather
than later.
Greg Maddux, starter, age 33 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 2.47 32 32 15 7 0 215 185 11 26 168 .234 .582
Prorated Atl 2.47 36 36 17 8 0 243 209 12 29 190 .234 .582
Actual Atl 3.57 33 33 19 9 0 219 258 16 37 136 .294 .726
Maddux posted his highest ERA since 1987, and his first 3+
ERA since 1991, a remarkable string in this era of high-octane
offense. The 258 hits he gave up are the most of his career, and
the 136 strikeouts the fewest since 1989. Maddux has been a great
pitcher in the 90s, but he's my candidate for trade bait. Maddux
has been throwing a lot of innings for a lot of years, all of
them in hitter-friendly parks. By age 22, he was pitching 249
innings, and this year's 219 innings were the fewest since then.
Of the Big Three, he's the one that looks most likely to suffer
a steep decline. But he also has the biggest contract, making
him tough to trade. Plus, like all of the Big Three, he's a 5
and 10 man (10 years in the majors, 5 with his current team) which
means he can veto any trade he doesn't want.
Tom Glavine, starter, age 33
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.17 32 32 15 9 0 218 198 16 70 149 .244 .648
Prorated Atl 3.17 37 37 17 10 0 249 226 18 80 170 .244 .648
Actual Atl 4.12 35 35 14 11 0 234 259 18 83 138 .287 .736
Glavine is my second candidate for trade. Like Maddux, he had
his worst season since the early 90s, and except for the difference
in walk totals, it was pretty similar to Maddux's. One big difference
is that Maddux got over a run per game more support from his offense,
which may account for the difference in victories. Glavine is
the same age as Maddux, but wasn't worked as hard at a young age.
Glavine was 24 before he pitched more than 200 innings in a season,
and he's never pitched 250 innings in a season, while Maddux has
topped that four times. Another reason to hang on to Glavine rather
than Maddux is that Glavine is a lefty. The only other lefty starters
are the veteran Terry Mulholland, who's more suited to spot starting
and middle relief at this point, Bruce Chen, who isn't yet a reliable
pitcher, and the very young Odaliz Perez, who struggled in his
first major league rotation and will be coming off elbow surgery.
Kevin Millwood, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.54 32 32 12 10 0 198 188 16 63 177 .250 .677
Prorated Atl 3.54 35 35 13 11 0 216 205 17 69 193 .250 .677
Actual Atl 2.68 33 33 18 7 0 228 168 24 59 205 .202 .594
Wow. There are lots of things to like about Millwood's season,
that 2.68 ERA being prime among them. Another is that he only
allowed about a base runner per inning, best in the league. And
that nice strikeout to walk ratio, almost 3 to 1. And, perhaps
best of all, his age. Big, young, hard-throwing pitchers with
sub-3.00 ERAs are the kind of pitchers you love to have on your
staff. He may not perform this well next season, but he's still
on the up side of the curve, and looks like at least the number
2 starter on the staff for next year.
John Smoltz, starter, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.11 32 32 14 8 0 205 185 16 50 210 .241 .645
Prorated Atl 3.11 29 29 13 7 0 184 166 14 45 188 .241 .645
Actual Atl 3.19 29 29 11 8 0 186 168 14 40 156 .245 .662
Here's the Big Three pitcher I'd most want to keep. Despite
some elbow problems this year, his performance was very much in
line with expectations. The elbow is the biggest concern, because
he's had trouble with it since off-season surgery two years ago.
Yet it doesn't seem to be hurting his performance, and it can
take two years to completely recover from elbow surgery. Another
concern is that like Maddux, Smoltz pitched a lot of innings at
a young age. However he faced fewer batters in those innings than
did Maddux, is physically larger than Maddux, and he hasn't consistently
thrown 200+ innings year in and year out.
Odaliz Perez, starter, age 21
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.81 27 27 7 9 0 161 179 25 64 154 .285 .821
Prorated Atl 4.81 16 16 4 5 0 97 108 15 39 93 .285 .821
Actual Atl 6.00 18 17 4 6 0 93 100 12 53 82 .275 .804
The young lefty struggled in his rookie season, with the ugliest
number the 6.00 ERA he posted. The ERA seems a bit out of line
with his other numbers, though, and is a bit inflated because
of his last two starts, when he only managed 6 innings and posted
a 16.50 ERA. He also showed a substantial home/road split, posting
a 4.02 ERA in ten starts at home, and a 10.09 ERA in 7 starts
on the road. His season was cut short by a torn elbow ligament,
and he'll have the Tommy John surgery this off-season.
Terry Mulholland, starter/reliever, age 36
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.04 32 32 10 10 0 198 202 21 55 108 .266 .730
Prorated ChN 4.04 19 19 6 6 0 116 118 12 32 63 .266 .730
Actual ChN 5.15 26 16 6 6 0 110 137 16 32 44 .309 .842
Prorated Atl 4.04 10 10 3 3 0 60 61 6 17 33 .266 .730
Actual Atl 2.98 16 8 4 2 1 60 64 5 13 39 .274 .691
Prorated Tot 4.04 28 28 9 9 0 175 179 19 49 96 .266 .730
Actual Tot 4.39 42 24 10 8 1 170 201 21 45 83 .297 .790
In the crafty lefty stage of his career, Mulholland gave the
Braves a solid role performance down the stretch as a spot starter
and reliever. He'll probably fill that role for someone again
next year, maybe even for the Braves.
Bruce Chen, starter/reliever, age 22
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.15 4 4 1 1 0 22 22 3 9 25 .262 .777
Prorated Atl 4.15 9 9 2 2 0 48 49 7 20 56 .262 .777
Actual Atl 5.47 16 7 2 2 0 51 38 11 27 45 .208 .724
Another young rotation candidate, Chen also struggled some,
especially with his control. Thirty-eight hits in 51 innings is
pretty good, but almost 5 walks per 9 innings isn't going to win
you many games. He has potential as a starter if he finds control,
as a reliever if he doesn't.
Mike Remlinger, middle reliever, age 33
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.58 27 4 3 4 0 55 54 7 27 54 .258 .762
Prorated Atl 4.58 39 6 4 6 0 79 77 10 39 77 .258 .762
Actual Atl 2.37 73 0 10 1 1 84 66 9 35 81 .215 .639
Remlinger stepped into the setup role this season for the Braves,
and did a good job there. Remlinger has been a bottom of the rotation
kind of starter most of his career; maybe he's better suited to
shorter relief. With numbers like these, he's a valuable left-handed
reliever.
Kevin McGlinchy, middle reliever, age 22
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Atl 2.82 64 0 7 3 0 70 66 6 30 67 .255 .708
McGlinchy made the leap from AA to the bigs look pretty easy
last year. Going into last season, McGlinchy, who had started
his entire minor league career, had a grand total of 33 innings
pitched above A ball. Somebody must have forgotten to tell him
it's supposed to be harder in the majors than in AA, because McGlinchy
pitched better in Atlanta than he had in the those 33 innings
in Greenville last season.
Rudy Seanez, middle reliever, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.35 70 0 6 4 3 97 86 10 51 123 .239 .708
Prorated Atl 3.35 38 0 3 2 2 52 46 5 27 66 .239 .708
Actual Atl 3.35 56 0 6 1 3 54 47 3 21 41 .234 .615
Seanez might have matched his projections for games and innings
pitched as well had he not suffered a stress fracture in his elbow
in August. He's a free agent, but one the Braves will probably
want to hang onto if he's healthy.
Russ Springer, middle reliever, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.05 30 0 2 2 0 40 41 4 21 45 .265 .746
Prorated Atl 4.05 32 0 2 2 0 43 44 4 23 49 .265 .746
Actual Atl 3.42 49 0 2 1 1 47 31 5 22 49 .185 .617
Another reliever, another good year. The Braves, despite beginning
the season with questions about their bullpen, managed to put
together a pretty good relief corps this year. Will it happen
again? Not with Springer; he's off to Arizona as a free agent.
John Rocker, closer, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.58 70 0 4 3 11 73 63 9 41 73 .235 .738
Prorated Atl 3.58 67 0 4 3 11 70 60 9 39 70 .235 .738
Actual Atl 2.49 74 0 4 5 38 72 47 5 37 104 .180 .552
When Ligtenberg went down with elbow problems, Rocker took
over the closer job and had a fine season, though with a few more
blown saves than Ligtenberg had in 1998. Now, the closer job belongs
to Rocker, and when Ligtenberg come back from his injury, the
Braves will slot him into the setup role or maybe use one of them
as trade bait. Rocker has the age advantage, so the Braves would
probably prefer to keep him.
Outlook
The Braves once again went to the World Series, and once again
didn't win. It's a shame that the dominant team of the '90s is
going to be remembered for what they didn't win, rather than what
they did. Atlanta has done a masterful job of replacing the parts
and keeping the dynasty going, and they're at a point where some
more parts needed to be plugged in. Will they be able to do it
on the fly, and keep winning, or will it be overhaul time?
We should get some idea next season. If the Braves try to sneak
one more season out of this collection of players, rather than
starting the process of moving in new talent, they're probably
headed for overhaul within a couple of years. Their sound defeat
in the World Series may be a blessing in disguise, as it exposed
the Braves' weaknesses -- when the pitching couldn't shut the
Yankees down, the offense couldn't step up and help out. Let's
see what the Braves do about it; I think it's going to be interesting
to watch.
[TT: I had the good fortune to be in Yankee Stadium for the
Game 6 of the 1996 World Series, and I remember being struck
by how many young players the Braves were starting in that game.
The team was already five years into their run of division titles,
and yet they went into a no-tomorrow game with Andruw Jones (19),
Chipper Jones (24), Jermaine Dye (22), and Javy Lopez (25) in
the lineup, with Ryan Klesko (25) coming off the bench to pinch
hit. If not for the added challenge of having to survive three
playoff series, I would have bet my car that this team would win
a World Series or two before the end of the century. For nine
years, they've been able to stay at the top while mixing in good
young players, so I'm not betting against their ability to retool
on the fly one more time.]
Projections and text: Copyright © 1999.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
rights reserved.
