This article takes a look at how the Chicago Cubs did in the
1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 813 747
Runs allowed 798 920
Run Margin 15 -173
Wins 81 67
Pythagorean wins 83 64
Placement 4th 6th
In last year's review of the Cubs, I wasn't too optimistic
about their chances in 1999. I wrote that I expected such players
as Mark Grace, Mickey Morandini, Gary Gaetti and Glenallen Hill
to play worse and said "that it's not likely that the key
pitchers on the staff will continue to stay as healthy as they've
been." My conclusion was that "the potential down-side
to this team is enormous." Well, with apologies to Grace
and Hill, this is pretty much what happened. (Not that predicting
against Cub success is such a long-shot, and notice that I'm not
talking about what I said concerning the prospects for the Expos.)
If the front office was concerned about the team's future,
they sure didn't show it during the off-season. Free-agent catcher
Scott Servais left, and free-agent catcher Benito Santiago arrived.
Free-agent pitcher Mark Clark left, and free-agent pitcher Scott
Sanders arrived. Those moves, as well as a trade that sent outfielder
Brant Brown to the Pirates for Jon Lieber, were about the extent
of the activity prior to the start of play.
Despite the loss of Kerry Wood in spring training, our computer
simulations projected that Chicago would be good enough to finish
around .500. They wouldn't be playing ball after the beginning
of October, but they wouldn't be looking up at Milwaukee in the
standings either.
For the first two months of the season at least, they played
very good ball. On June 8th, their record stood at 32-23. Had
the season ended after the games that evening, the Cubs would
have been the NL wild-card team. Unfortunately for them, the schedule
called for Chicago to play an additional 107 games and they would
go only 35-72 in those. The free-fall landed the Cubs back in
the basement (where they had spent 1997) and kept their string
intact of not having posted consecutive winning seasons since
they fired Leo Durocher back in 1972.
Key Position Players
The Cubs scored 66 runs less than anticipated. There were a
few pleasant surprises, including Mark Grace, Sammy Sosa (again!)
and both halves of the left-field platoon of Henry Rodriguez and
Glenallen Hill, but the bright spots were overshadowed by the
big disappointments. Benito Santiago, Mickey Morandini, Gary Gaetti
and Lance Johnson all looked washed-up. Injuries also played a
role, especially when Chicago could not come up with adequate
replacements.
Benito Santiago, c, age 34 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 496 124 20 1 25 52 70 3 34 4 111 1 0 .250 .300 .446 .745 64
Prorated ChN 355 88 14 0 17 37 50 2 24 2 79 0 0 .248 .298 .431 .729 44
Actual ChN 350 87 18 3 7 28 36 2 32 6 71 1 1 .249 .313 .377 .691 39
A surprising home run outburst in 1996 while playing for the
Phillies (30 HRs in 481 at-bats) was responsible for our overly-optimistic
view of Santiago's chances for last season. He was relegated to
a back-up role once Reed arrived and will not be back in 2000.
Jeff Reed, c, age 36
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 449 126 25 1 19 66 65 3 63 6 104 1 2 .281 .371 .468 .838 78
Prorated Col 106 30 5 0 4 15 15 0 15 1 24 0 0 .283 .372 .443 .815 18
Actual Col 106 27 5 0 2 11 11 1 17 1 24 0 1 .255 .360 .358 .718 14
Prorated ChN 154 43 8 0 6 22 22 1 21 2 35 0 0 .279 .367 .448 .815 26
Actual ChN 150 39 11 2 1 18 17 2 28 0 34 1 1 .260 .381 .380 .761 23
Prorated Tot 261 73 14 0 11 38 37 1 36 3 60 0 1 .280 .368 .460 .828 44
Actual Tot 256 66 16 2 3 29 28 3 45 1 58 1 2 .258 .373 .371 .744 37
Reed came to the Cubs on July 8th after he was waived by the
Rockies. While in Colorado, he had hit only .179 at Coors with
a single extra-base hit. He's been re-signed to back up Girardi
next season.
Mark Grace, 1b, age 35
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 557 168 34 3 13 82 76 2 77 6 47 2 3 .302 .385 .443 .828 96
Prorated ChN 596 180 36 3 13 87 81 2 82 6 50 2 3 .302 .385 .438 .823 101
Actual ChN 593 183 44 5 16 107 91 2 83 4 44 3 4 .309 .390 .481 .870 114
He scored over a hundred runs for the first time in his career,
but everything else about his 1999 performance was very familiar.
His triple crown stats for the last two years:
Year HR RBI AVG
1998 17 89 .309
1999 16 91 .309
Grace is something of a rarity, having played his entire career
with a single club. His average has been helped by his long stay
in Wrigley Field, where his career BA is .325, but he's actually
hit more home runs (76 to 61) on the road.
Mickey Morandini, 2b, age 33
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 622 176 28 3 5 90 46 9 67 2 93 19 5 .283 .359 .362 .721 86
Prorated ChN 457 129 20 2 3 66 33 6 49 1 68 13 3 .282 .358 .354 .712 62
Actual ChN 456 110 18 5 4 60 37 6 48 2 61 6 6 .241 .319 .329 .648 49
Like he did in 1998, Morandini hit poorly down the stretch
last year, posting a .174 batting average and a .231 slugging
percentage in August and September. It was the worst season of
his career and toward the end of it he'd lost his starting job
to Chad Meyers. Morandini is a now a free agent and won't be back.
Jeff Blauser, 2b/ss/3b, age 33
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 63 16 3 0 2 10 7 2 9 0 14 0 0 .254 .360 .397 .757 10
Prorated ChN 199 50 9 0 6 31 22 6 28 0 44 0 0 .251 .356 .387 .743 30
Actual ChN 200 48 5 2 9 41 26 8 26 0 52 2 2 .240 .347 .420 .767 32
Blauser went from being an All-Star shortstop to a very expensive
utility infielder in just two years. He was slow recovering from
off-season elbow surgery and had problems with his throwing arm
early in the season.
Chad Meyers, 2b/cf/lf, age 23
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual ChN 142 33 9 0 0 17 4 3 9 1 27 4 2 .232 .292 .296 .588 12
At the end of 1998, Meyers was hitting .270 with no home runs
in AA ball. As a result, we didn't think he'd see any action with
the Cubs last year. Poor play by Morandini, as well as Meyers'
.354 average at Iowa (the Cubs' AAA farm team) got him recalled
at the beginning of August. He originally replaced Curtis Goodwin
in centerfield but moved to second base for much of September.
Jose Hernandez, ss/cf, age 29
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 520 129 23 7 23 83 76 1 42 4 146 5 6 .248 .304 .452 .756 67
Prorated ChN 354 87 15 4 15 56 51 0 28 2 99 3 4 .246 .299 .438 .737 44
Actual ChN 342 93 12 2 15 57 43 5 40 3 101 7 2 .272 .357 .450 .807 57
Prorated Atl 164 40 7 2 7 26 24 0 13 1 46 1 1 .244 .299 .439 .738 20
Actual Atl 166 42 8 0 4 22 19 0 12 3 44 4 1 .253 .302 .373 .675 18
Prorated Tot 519 128 22 6 22 82 75 0 41 3 145 4 5 .247 .301 .439 .740 65
Actual Tot 508 135 20 2 19 79 62 5 52 6 145 11 3 .266 .339 .425 .764 75
When the bottom dropped out of the season for Chicago, Hernandez,
who was due to become a free agent after the season, was sent
to the Braves along with Terry Mulholland for three prospects,
including pitcher Micah Bowie.
Jose Nieves, ss, age 24
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 73 16 4 0 1 6 6 0 1 0 11 2 1 .219 .230 .315 .545 5
Prorated ChN 193 42 10 0 2 15 15 0 2 0 29 5 2 .218 .226 .301 .526 12
Actual ChN 181 45 9 1 2 16 18 4 8 0 25 0 2 .249 .291 .343 .633 17
Considered the shortstop of the future by the Cubs, Nieves
was brought up from the minors after the Hernandez trade. Prior
to the move, he had been hitting .268 with 11 home runs for Iowa.
After the season, Nieves had surgery on both of his knees, but
he should be recovered by the start of spring training.
Gary Gaetti, 3b, age 40
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 555 144 32 1 25 74 84 10 46 3 90 2 3 .259 .324 .456 .780 79
Prorated ChN 275 71 15 0 12 36 41 4 22 1 44 0 1 .258 .320 .444 .764 37
Actual ChN 280 57 9 1 9 22 46 2 21 0 51 0 1 .204 .260 .339 .599 25
Gaetti had been one of the surprise contributors to the Cubs'
stretch drive in 1998, hitting .320 with excellent power after
coming over from the Cardinals. He was over 40 by the end of that
year and, while it was reasonable to expect his performance to
decline, there was nothing to suggest a complete collapse. A extremely
slow start (he was hitting only .181 at the end of June) got him
platooned with Tyler Houston and by the end of the season he had
lost his job to Shane Andrews. He was released following the season.
Tyler Houston, 3b/c, age 28
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 154 40 6 0 4 14 21 0 7 1 29 1 1 .260 .290 .377 .667 16
Prorated ChN 265 68 10 0 6 24 36 0 12 1 49 1 1 .257 .288 .362 .650 26
Actual ChN 249 58 9 1 9 26 27 0 28 4 67 1 1 .233 .309 .386 .695 29
Prorated Cle 28 7 1 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 5 0 0 .250 .276 .286 .562 2
Actual Cle 27 4 1 0 1 2 3 0 3 0 11 0 0 .148 .233 .296 .530 2
Prorated Tot 293 76 11 0 7 26 40 0 13 1 55 1 1 .259 .290 .369 .659 30
Actual Tot 276 62 10 1 10 28 30 0 31 4 78 1 1 .225 .302 .377 .679 31
Gaetti's poor play got Houston more playing time than expected.
He was primarily a catcher throughout his career but formed the
left-hand side of the third-base platoon until he was traded to
the Indians at the end of August. He got off to a hot start, hitting
a high-water mark on May 26th with a .386 average and a .671 slugging
percentage. Nobody expected that to last, but when he went into
a three month slump (during which he hit only .173 and slugged
.274) he was traded to Cleveland for Richard Negrette, a AA relief
pitcher with a 6.13 ERA.
Sammy Sosa, rf/cf, age 30
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 604 167 23 1 51 107 130 2 55 11 161 18 9 .276 .337 .571 .908 110
Prorated ChN 646 178 24 1 54 114 139 2 58 11 172 19 9 .276 .335 .567 .902 116
Actual ChN 625 180 24 2 63 114 141 3 78 8 171 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 140
I was a little uneasy about the projection for Sosa last year.
Sure he had hit 66 home runs, but this had been so far above his
previously established level of performance that I felt it was
more likely a fluke (a la Roger Maris) than an indication he'd
taken his game to a higher level. After his second "fluke"
season, I get the feeling that our home run projection for him
will be even higher next season. Two years ago, few people thought
of Sosa as a legitimate candidate for the Hall of Fame; now he
looks like a sure thing.
This probably isn't good news, but shortly after being named
the new manager of the Cubs, Don Baylor criticized Sosa not being
a complete player, in part because of his low stolen base totals
the last two years. I can think of a lot of reasons for the Cubs'
poor record in 1999, but Sosa's low stolen base totals wouldn't
be one of them.
Lance Johnson, cf, age 35
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 639 191 24 11 6 100 52 0 49 5 44 30 15 .299 .347 .399 .746 88
Prorated ChN 348 104 13 5 3 54 28 0 26 2 23 16 8 .299 .347 .391 .737 47
Actual ChN 335 87 11 6 1 46 21 0 37 0 20 13 3 .260 .332 .337 .670 40
After being a pretty durable player for most of his career,
Johnson has now lost large chunks of his last three seasons to
injuries. This time he went on the DL in mid-June with an abdominal
strain and missed over two months. He managed only a single stolen
base after returning from his injury and was released at the end
of the year.
Curtis Goodwin, cf/lf, age 26
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 85 22 4 0 0 12 5 0 9 0 19 7 3 .259 .330 .306 .636 9
Prorated ChN 153 39 7 0 0 21 9 0 16 0 34 12 5 .255 .325 .301 .626 17
Actual ChN 157 38 6 1 0 15 9 0 13 1 38 2 4 .242 .298 .293 .591 12
Prorated Tor 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .143 .143 .143 .286 0
Actual Tor 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Prorated Tot 160 41 7 0 0 22 9 0 16 0 35 13 5 .256 .324 .300 .624 17
Actual Tot 165 38 6 1 0 15 9 0 13 1 41 2 4 .230 .285 .279 .564 12
He was moved into the leadoff spot following Johnson's injury,
didn't produce and was waived to the Blue Jays in August.
Henry Rodriguez, lf, age 31
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 382 96 20 1 23 47 68 1 37 6 110 1 1 .251 .317 .490 .806 59
Prorated ChN 455 114 23 1 27 56 81 1 44 7 131 1 1 .251 .316 .484 .800 69
Actual ChN 447 136 29 0 26 72 87 0 56 6 113 2 4 .304 .381 .544 .925 91
Having hit a combined .247 in 1997 and 1998, Rodriguez was
not a particularly good candidate to hit .300 last year. But he
had a torrid first half and on July 3rd was fourth in the NL with
a .348 batting average and sixth in the league with a .608 slugging
percentage. He returned to normal after that, hitting .259 with
decent power the rest of the way.
Glenallen Hill, lf/rf, age 34
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 228 64 14 1 11 33 35 2 14 1 48 2 2 .281 .325 .496 .821 35
Prorated ChN 257 72 15 1 12 37 39 2 15 1 54 2 2 .280 .322 .486 .809 38
Actual ChN 253 76 9 1 20 43 55 0 22 1 61 5 1 .300 .353 .581 .934 51
Like Rodriguez, with whom he shared left field for much of
the year, Hill had the best year of his career in 1999. He must
just like playing for the Cubs. Here are his career stats both
with Chicago and with everyone else:
Tm AB H 2B 3B HR W AVG OBP SPC OPS
ChN 740 232 33 2 48 71 .314 .372 .558 .930
Others 2609 676 145 18 110 180 .259 .309 .455 .764
In case you were wondering, he hasn't hit much better at Wrigley
Field than he has on the road during his time with the Cubs. He
has a better road batting average (.320 to .304) with somewhat
more power at home. Despite being the right half of a platoon
much of the year, Hill hit a ton of home runs against righties.
In 147 at-bats against them in 1999, Hill hit 16 out of the park.
Key Pitchers
When Kerry Wood went down in spring training, it signaled the
beginning of the end for the Cubs' pitching staff. For a team
that had almost everything go right for them on the mound in 1998,
last year was a lesson in the law of averages. In 1998, the starting
rotation remained pretty much the same for the entire season as
five pitchers (Mark Clark, Kevin Tapani, Jeremi Gonzalez, Steve
Traschel and Kerry Wood) accounted for 146 of the team's starts
and one pitcher (Rod Beck) stayed the closer all year long.
In 1999, Gonzalez and Wood would both miss the entire season
with injuries, Tapani would go on the DL twice, newcomer Jon Lieber
once and Steve Trachsel, while he'd stay healthy the entire year,
would have a miserable season. Four other pitchers had more than
ten starts for the Cubs last year. None of them finished with
an ERA under 5.00. Three different relievers attempted to fill
the closer's role. At one point during the season, Cubs pitchers
allowed 163 runs in a 16-game stretch and by the time it was all
over, they had allowed 122 more runs than we'd projected and the
most in club history.
Kevin Tapani, Starter, age 35 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.91 32 32 10 13 0 209 229 31 59 137 .279 .793
Prorated ChN 4.91 21 21 7 9 0 138 151 20 39 90 .279 .793
Actual ChN 4.83 23 23 6 12 0 136 151 12 33 73 .280 .757
After missing almost all of April with shoulder soreness, Tapani
pitched extremely well for six weeks. On June 8th, when the Cubs
stood only a game out of first place in the Central Division,
Tapani had a 5-2 record to go with a league's best ERA of 2.39.
Back problems bothered him from then on, and he went 1-10 with
a 7.24 ERA until going on the disabled list for good on August
26th. Despite the hot and cold streaks and injuries, he finished
with a slightly better record than anticipated, especially in
the home run department.
Steve Trachsel, Starter, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.42 32 32 10 13 0 210 212 30 74 152 .264 .769
Prorated ChN 4.42 32 32 10 13 0 209 212 30 74 152 .264 .769
Actual ChN 5.56 34 34 8 18 0 206 226 32 64 149 .280 .787
At the end of July, Trachsel's record stood at 3 wins and 14
losses and there was a lot of speculation about whether he could
become the first pitcher since Brian Kingman in 1980 to lose 20
games in a season. Trachsel pitched pretty well over the two months,
however, losing only 4 of his last 12 starts and ensuring Kingman
another fifteen minutes of fame sometime in the future. Trachsel
was especially brutal (1-9 with a 8.75 ERA) in June and July,
when the Cubs' season was going down the tubes. He's a free agent
after the season and probably won't be back.
[TT: Several publications have reported that Trachsel is seeking
a 3-year contract at upwards of $7 million per year, and I'll
be astonished if anyone is willing to pay him anywhere near that
kind of money. His best asset has been durability, as he's logged
over 200 innings each of the past four seasons. But over the past
five years he's 50-61 with an ERA of 4.52. And his ERA has been
half a run higher on the road than at home, so his agent can't
argue that hitter-friendly Wrigley Field has made him look worse
than he's really been.]
Jon Lieber, Starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.34 32 32 10 12 0 199 211 27 46 154 .273 .754
Prorated ChN 4.34 34 34 11 13 0 209 222 28 48 162 .273 .754
Actual ChN 4.07 31 31 10 11 0 203 226 28 46 186 .279 .747
Despite missing a couple of weeks in late April and early May
after getting hit in the eye by a thrown ball, Lieber was the
only member of the Cubs rotation to both stay reasonably healthy
and pitch well in 1999. Like Tapani, he was very hot when the
Cubs made their run at the Astros in May and June. His record
was 8-3 before the All-Star game and only 2-8 after. His ERA during
the second half was 4.94, which these days is better than a 2-8
record would seem to indicate.
Terry Mulholland, Swing man, age 36
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.04 32 32 10 10 0 198 202 21 55 108 .266 .730
Prorated ChN 4.04 19 19 6 6 0 116 118 12 32 63 .266 .730
Actual ChN 5.15 26 16 6 6 0 110 137 16 32 44 .309 .842
Prorated Atl 4.04 10 10 3 3 0 60 61 6 17 33 .266 .730
Actual Atl 2.98 16 8 4 2 1 60 64 5 13 39 .274 .691
Prorated Tot 4.04 28 28 9 9 0 175 179 19 49 96 .266 .730
Actual Tot 4.39 42 24 10 8 1 170 201 21 45 83 .297 .790
Mulholland spent most of his time with the Cubs moving back
and forth between the starting rotation and bullpen, attempting
to plug holes in one or the other. He was great in April and May,
going 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA before, like most Chicago pitchers,
forgetting how to pitch in June and July. He was traded to the
Braves at the end of July as part of the Jose Hernandez deal.
When Al Martin stole second base in the third inning of the
July 7th game between the Cubs and Pirates it was the first stolen
base off of Mulholland in over two years, since Royce Clayton
turned the trick on June 4, 1997. Since 1980, he's been the toughest
pitcher in the majors to steal on, allowing only 29 stolen bases
in his entire career. By contrast, Dwight Gooden allowed 60 stolen
bases in 1990 alone.
Kyle Farnsworth, Starter, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.11 3 3 1 1 0 18 21 3 6 13 .300 .836
Prorated ChN 6.11 22 22 7 7 0 131 156 22 45 97 .300 .836
Actual ChN 5.05 27 21 5 9 0 130 140 28 52 70 .271 .825
Farnsworth was first called up when Jon Lieber went on the
DL. He won his first two decisions but was very ineffective over
the next two months. He was sent back to the minors after giving
up eight runs (six earned) in only a third of an inning on July
3rd. This was about what we expected from Farnsworth, who had
pitched poorly (a 5-9 record and a 6.93 ERA) at AAA the year before.
He moved back and forth between the Chicago and Iowa twice more,
each time getting noticeably better. Here is his record in each
of his three stints with the Cubs:
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K
7.58 13 11 2 3 0 57 79 16 26 30
3.66 8 4 0 4 0 32 28 6 11 17
2.41 5 5 3 2 0 41 33 6 15 23
His season ended one start too soon when he broke his wrist.
Andrew Lorraine, Starter, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.06 19 0 1 1 0 16 22 3 8 11 .328 .947
Prorated ChN 6.06 68 0 4 4 0 58 79 11 29 39 .328 .947
Actual ChN 5.55 11 11 2 5 0 62 71 9 22 40 .293 .829
He was called upon in early August and proceeded to throw a
3-hit complete game shutout against the Astros. He followed that
up by pitching two more decent games, but would not make it past
the sixth inning in any of his remaining eight starts.
Micah Bowie, Starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.59 34 4 3 4 0 65 65 8 30 61 .262 .771
Prorated Atl 4.59 3 0 0 0 0 5 5 1 2 5 .262 .771
Actual Atl 13.50 3 0 0 1 0 4 8 1 4 2 .421 1.101
Prorated ChN 4.59 29 3 3 3 0 55 55 7 26 52 .262 .771
Actual ChN 9.96 11 11 2 6 0 47 73 8 30 39 .358 .993
Prorated Tot 4.59 32 4 3 4 0 60 61 7 28 57 .262 .771
Actual Tot 10.24 14 11 2 7 0 51 81 9 34 41 .363 1.003
Bowie came to Chicago in the Hernandez deal but clearly wasn't
ready to make a contribution in 1999. He posted very good numbers
at AAA last year: 2.96 ERA in 13 starts with 82 strikeouts and
only 14 walks in 73 innings.
Rod Beck, closer/middle relief, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.79 70 0 2 7 27 76 78 11 15 66 .265 .732
Prorated ChN 3.79 31 0 1 3 12 34 35 5 7 30 .265 .732
Actual ChN 7.80 31 0 2 4 7 30 41 5 13 13 .331 .969
Prorated Bos 3.79 12 0 0 1 5 13 14 2 3 12 .265 .732
Actual Bos 1.93 12 0 0 1 3 14 9 0 5 12 .184 .497
Prorated Tot 3.79 44 0 1 4 17 47 49 7 9 41 .265 .732
Actual Tot 5.93 43 0 2 5 10 44 50 5 18 25 .289 .835
Bothered by back and elbow problems, Beck never got on track
for the Cubs in 1999. He was in the process of pitching his way
out of the closer's job when he went on the DL in the middle of
May and missed two months. He continued to throw poorly after
returning and was sent to Boston at the end of August for third-base
prospect Cole Liniak and pitcher Mark Guthrie.
Rick Aguilera, Closer, age 37
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.14 70 0 3 6 25 74 79 11 20 61 .273 .783
Prorated Min 4.14 17 0 1 1 6 18 19 3 5 15 .273 .783
Actual Min 1.27 17 0 3 1 6 21 10 2 2 13 .135 .442
Prorated ChN 4.14 42 0 2 4 15 45 48 7 12 37 .273 .783
Actual ChN 3.69 44 0 6 3 8 46 44 6 10 32 .254 .704
Prorated Tot 4.14 59 0 3 5 21 63 67 9 17 52 .273 .783
Actual Tot 2.93 61 0 9 4 14 68 54 8 12 45 .219 .627
He was picked up from the Twins when Beck went on the DL. He
had been pitching brilliantly for Minnesota, but had a very rough
time getting readjusted to the National League, allowing more
than a run an inning over his first fifteen games. He began pitching
well in July before missing almost all of August with a strained
calf muscle. An excellent last five weeks (one earned run in his
last 18 innings) allowed him to reclaim his closer's role and
the job should be his to lose in 2000.
Terry Adams, Closer/Middle Relief, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.44 53 0 4 3 0 73 72 5 37 66 .261 .707
Prorated ChN 3.44 46 0 3 3 0 64 63 4 32 57 .261 .707
Actual ChN 4.02 52 0 6 3 13 65 60 9 28 57 .245 .727
He started the season on the disabled list with strained elbow
ligaments and wasn't activated until early May. Cubs manager Jim
Riggleman gave him several opportunities to be the team's closer,
but injuries and ineffectiveness kept getting in the way. He was
traded to the Dodgers after the season.
Matt Karchner, Middle Relief, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.84 70 0 6 4 3 96 94 12 43 73 .258 .743
Prorated ChN 3.84 13 0 1 1 1 18 18 2 8 14 .258 .743
Actual ChN 2.50 16 0 1 0 0 18 16 3 9 9 .235 .739
Karchner was expected to see a lot of action in middle relief
for the Cubs in 1999, but he ended up missing most of the season
with groin injuries.
Rodney Myers, Middle Relief, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.51 11 0 1 1 0 16 20 3 9 12 .308 .918
Prorated ChN 5.51 40 0 4 4 0 59 72 11 32 43 .308 .918
Actual ChN 4.38 46 0 3 1 0 64 71 10 25 41 .289 .834
Myers spent most of 1997 and 1998 in the minor leagues and
as spring training wound down, there was no indication that 1999
would be any different. Instead, he was able to stick with Chicago
for most of the year and pitched better than expected, especially
after he was recalled from Iowa near the end of August.
Scott Sanders, Swing man, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.19 57 27 9 12 0 201 226 32 67 188 .284 .815
Prorated ChN 5.19 30 14 5 6 0 107 120 17 36 100 .284 .815
Actual ChN 5.52 67 6 4 7 2 104 112 19 53 89 .277 .830
A free-agent import from San Diego, Sanders was put into the
starting rotation at the beginning of the season. He soon pitched
his way back into the bullpen, where he spent the remainder of
the year. The poorest control of his career caused him to perform
slightly worse than anticipated.
Dan Serafini, Middle Relief, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.00 53 0 3 4 0 69 84 9 31 48 .301 .847
Prorated ChN 6.00 50 0 3 4 0 66 80 9 29 46 .301 .847
Actual ChN 6.93 42 4 3 2 1 62 86 9 32 17 .333 .916
While with the Twins in 1998, Serafini had posted a 6.48 ERA.
We were expecting more of the same last year and that's just about
what we got. His strikeout rate was much lower than in his previous
seasons. As a matter of fact, his ratio of strikeouts per nine
innings was the lowest in the major leagues (50 or more innings)
since Steve Sparks struck out only 21 batters in 88 2/3 innings
for the 1996 Milwaukee Brewers. The pitchers with the lowest ratios
in 1999:
Name Team INN K K/9 ERA
Dan Serafini CHI N 62.1 17 2.45 6.93
Mike Lincoln MIN A 76.1 27 3.18 6.84
Scott Karl MIL N 197.2 74 3.37 4.78
Jamie Arnold LA N 69.0 26 3.39 5.48
Tim Belcher ANA A 132.1 52 3.54 6.73
From June 23rd to July 3rd, Serafini relieved in four games,
pitching a total of 9 innings and allowing 21 hits, 9 walks and
16 runs. So what happened? Was he sent to the minors? No. Jim
Riggleman moved him into the starting rotation for three weeks.
That, in a nutshell, tells you all you need to know about the
Cubs' pitching last year.
Outlook
The Cubs starting lineup in 1999 was the oldest in the National
League and it's safe to say the team will be younger next year.
Lance Johnson and Gary Gaetti have been released. Benito Santiago,
Jeff Blauser and Mickey Morandini are also not coming back. Jose
Nieves should play regularly in the infield. Shane Andrews, a
late season pick-up after getting waived by Montreal, will be
at third, with Cole Liniak waiting in the wings in case Andrews
can't hit better than his .220 lifetime batting average.
Still, old habits die hard. The Cubs recently traded for Eric
Young to replace Morandini at second. Young will turn 33 in May.
Behind the plate, Joe Girardi is even older than Santiago, the
man he's replacing. While Girardi, Young and newly-acquired Damon
Buford fill holes in the Cubs lineup at catcher, second base and
centerfield, it hard to imagine these players helping the offense
much. A lot has been made of Young's 51 stolen bases in 1999,
but he also got caught a league-leading 22 times -- a success
rate that won't help a team put many runs on the board.
The Cubs' pitching staff will also have a different look next
year. Kerry Wood is slated to return to the team but should not
be expected to carry a large workload or be as effective as he
was during his rookie season. He'll join Jon Lieber, Kevin Tapani
and new-arrival Ismael Valdes in the rotation along with one or
two of the following: Steve Trachsel (if they decide to re-sign
him), Kyle Farnsworth, Andrew Lorraine, Micah Bowie and Brian
McNichol, who pitched briefly at the end of the year for the Cubs
after going 10-11 with a 5.58 ERA at Iowa. Valdes is a risky addition
for the Cubs; over the course of his career, he's allowed about
two runs a game more on the road than at home in Dodger Stadium,
and there's a good chance he'll find Wrigley Field much less to
his liking.
All in all, next year should see the team undergo an interesting,
if at times painful, rebuilding process. While they should improve
upon last year's mark (it would be hard to do worse), they still
look as if they're a long way from being even a .500 club again.
Projections and text: Copyright © 1999.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
