This article takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds did in
the 1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 768 865
Runs allowed 730 711
Run Margin 38 154
Wins 85 96
Pythagorean wins 85 97
Placement 3rd 2nd
We had expected the Reds to be the surprise team of 1998, figuring
them for about 88 wins and a division title. Shortly after we
made this projection, however, the Reds traded Dave Burba, their
top pitcher, to the Indians for rookie first baseman Sean Casey.
While rebuilding for the future didn't sit too well with some
players, especially Barry Larkin (who asked to be traded that
summer), that deal helped set the stage for a very successful
1999.
GM Jim Bowden and company had a very busy winter prior to the
1999 season. They traded Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger to the
Braves for Denny Neagle, Michael Tucker and a minor league pitcher.
They swapped disappointing young players with the White Sox, sending
Paul Konerko to Chicago for Mike Cameron. They picked up Greg
Vaughn, coming off of a 50 home run campaign, and Mark Sweeney
from San Diego in exchange for Reggie Sanders, Damian Jackson
and a prospect.
In many ways, however, their success came in spite of these
deals. Remlinger was great in middle relief for Atlanta while
Neagle missed a large chunk of the season; Cameron played well
in Cincinnati, but Konerko was even better in Chicago; and while
Vaughn hit 45 home runs for the Reds, Reggie Sanders played just
as well for the Padres. More than these trades, it was the rapid
development of some of their young players, especially Sean Casey,
Scott Williamson, Pokey Reese and Aaron Boone, that put Cincinnati
in the thick of the pennant race.
Of all the deals they made over the winter, the one Jim Bowden
should regret the most had nothing to do with his players. Over
the winter, the Reds "traded" a three-game series at
home with the White Sox to the Cubs for three games with the Indians.
Despite the fact that Cleveland was a much stronger opponent,
the Reds rightly figured that their cross-state rivals would draw
more fans into Riverfront Stadium than the weaker White Sox. Manager
Jack McKeon wasn't too thrilled with the move. "What happens
if we lose a wild-card spot by two or three games if Cleveland
beats up on us?" The Indians ended up sweeping the Reds that
weekend in June and I wonder how many people in the front office
were pleased with the results of that maneuver when they ended
in a tie with the Mets for the wild-card spot.
Key Position Players
Better than anticipated seasons from several players, including
Eddie Taubensee, Dmitri Young, Mike Cameron, Jeffrey Hammonds
as well as the ones mentioned above, resulted in the Reds scoring
nearly a hundred more than runs than projected. More than half
of this increase was due to an across the board upswing in offense
in the NL last season, as the average team scored 65 more runs
than in 1998.
Eddie Taubensee, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 378 103 25 0 11 49 58 0 36 5 86 1 1 .272 .332 .426 .758 56
Prorated Cin 414 113 27 0 12 53 63 0 39 5 94 1 1 .273 .332 .425 .757 61
Actual Cin 424 132 22 2 21 58 87 1 30 1 67 0 2 .311 .354 .521 .876 75
Taubensee was angry when the Reds went out and signed free
agent catcher Brian Johnson before the season began. He had wrist
surgery in January and got off to a slow start, but hit .395 with
7 homers and 23 RBIs after September 3rd to finish with career
highs in HRs, RBIs and AVG. It was reported in Baseball Weekly
that Taubensee became the first Reds catcher to hit .300 since
Ed Bailey in 1956 (ignoring the .309 average Joe Nolan put up
in the strike-shortened 1981). If that seems like a long time,
ask White Sox fans when one of their regular catchers last topped
.300. The first and only time that happened was in 1930 when Bennie
Tate (yes, THAT Bennie Tate) hit .317.
Brian Johnson, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 192 45 7 1 7 19 23 2 13 3 33 0 0 .234 .287 .391 .678 21
Prorated Cin 115 27 4 0 4 11 13 1 7 1 19 0 0 .235 .282 .374 .656 12
Actual Cin 117 27 7 0 5 12 18 0 9 0 31 0 0 .231 .286 .419 .705 14
Johnson came over from the Giants in the off-season, missed
a month and a half in the middle of the year with a knee injury,
and was released after the season.
Sean Casey, 1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 598 178 48 1 16 88 112 8 68 6 83 1 2 .298 .375 .462 .836 104
Prorated Cin 590 175 47 0 15 86 110 7 67 5 81 0 1 .297 .373 .453 .826 101
Actual Cin 594 197 42 3 25 103 99 9 61 13 88 0 2 .332 .399 .539 .938 126
Casey's outstanding minor-league numbers indicated that he'd
have a lot of success in the majors too, but his power and batting
average were still a pleasant surprise. He led the NL in hitting
for much of the first half of the season, but seemed to wear down
a little over the second half. Still, he hit about what we'd projected
(8 home runs, a .369 on-base and a .442 slugging percentage) after
the All-Star break, so it was a slump only when compared to what
he had done during the first three months.
Pokey Reese, 2b/ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 605 136 20 2 8 75 52 5 49 3 117 25 9 .225 .287 .304 .591 55
Prorated Cin 575 129 19 1 7 71 49 4 46 2 111 23 8 .224 .285 .297 .583 51
Actual Cin 585 167 37 5 10 85 52 6 35 3 81 38 7 .285 .330 .417 .747 84
Pokey Reese moved to second base following the trade of Bret
Boone and was one of the big reasons for the Reds contending in
the NL Central. He duplicated Boone's feat of the year before
by winning the Gold Glove award at second base. The last time
a team had different players capture consecutive Gold Glove awards
at the same position was in 1963 and 1964 when Philly shortstops
Bobby Wine and Ruben Amaro won the award. His top batting average
and slugging percentage in the minors was .269 and .407, so it
will be interesting to see if he can duplicate his 1999 success
next year.
[TT: Boone won the Gold Glove in 1998 primarily based on reputation
and good hands, as he made only two errors in 1997 and nine in
1998. But Boone's range is quite ordinary. In contrast, Reese's
range and fielding percentage were both outstanding, so the Reds
gained a lot of defense at second last year.]
Chris Stynes, 2b/3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 113 30 5 0 2 16 12 1 6 0 9 4 1 .265 .306 .363 .669 13
Prorated Cin 119 31 5 0 2 16 12 1 6 0 9 4 1 .261 .299 .353 .652 13
Actual Cin 113 27 1 0 2 18 14 0 12 1 13 5 2 .239 .310 .301 .610 11
It seems like an awfully long time since Stynes hit .348 in
the last seven weeks of 1997. He was a reserve infielder last
year and didn't hit at all until late July, starting the season
by going 4-46 with no extra base hits.
Barry Larkin, ss, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 569 168 35 9 20 98 72 4 85 7 66 28 5 .295 .388 .494 .882 115
Prorated Cin 587 173 36 9 20 101 74 4 87 7 68 28 5 .295 .387 .489 .876 117
Actual Cin 583 171 30 4 12 108 75 2 93 5 57 30 8 .293 .390 .420 .810 103
After demanding to be sent to a contender in 1998, Barry Larkin
had a contender come to him last year. With the exception of a
lower-than-anticipated home run total (caused by a 72-game homerless
spell in the middle of the year), Larkin did as expected last
year. He had a very slow start at the beginning of the year but
more than made up for that by hitting over .430 from May 24th
to the end of June. Larkin's knees bothered him for much of the
year, but he managed to stay in the lineup all year and play in
a career-high 161 games. He has spent time on the DL in half of
his 14 seasons and all those injuries might eventually cost him
a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Aaron Boone, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 548 132 32 3 13 76 71 8 34 3 95 17 5 .241 .292 .381 .673 62
Prorated Cin 475 114 27 2 11 65 61 6 29 2 82 14 4 .240 .289 .375 .664 52
Actual Cin 472 132 26 5 14 56 72 8 30 2 79 17 6 .280 .330 .445 .775 71
Coming off a somewhat disappointing season in 1998, Aaron Boone
got off to a slow start last year and found himself in the minors
by the middle of May. He was recalled two weeks later and hit
well the rest of the way, ending up very close to what we had
projected for him back in 1998.
Mark Lewis, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 69 16 3 0 1 7 7 0 5 0 13 0 0 .232 .280 .319 .599 6
Prorated Cin 169 39 7 0 2 17 17 0 12 0 31 0 0 .231 .279 .308 .586 14
Actual Cin 173 44 16 0 6 18 28 0 7 1 24 0 0 .254 .280 .451 .731 19
Lewis was signed as a free agent after playing second base
regularly for the Phillies the previous year. Boone's slow start
got him more playing time than anticipated and while he was in
the lineup, Lewis showed surprising power. The Reds were his sixth
team in as many years.
Greg Vaughn, lf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 526 130 25 3 37 98 104 4 79 5 120 9 4 .247 .347 .517 .865 99
Prorated Cin 551 136 26 3 38 102 109 4 82 5 125 9 4 .247 .346 .512 .858 102
Actual Cin 550 135 20 2 45 104 118 3 85 3 137 15 2 .245 .347 .535 .881 108
Prior to this season, Vaughn had been very inconsistent, with
awful seasons in 1995 and 1997, and fine years in 1996 and 1998.
Our projection system doesn't take a player's inconsistency into
account, and that's probably a good thing because Vaughn put together
the first back-to-back big years of his career and, except for
slightly more power and the best stolen base percentage of his
career, his 1999 performance was right in line with our projections.
A free agent after the season, Vaughn put together one of the
greatest salary drives of all-time last year, hitting 16 home
runs in his last 30 games. In the process, he won the NL's Player
of the Month award for September and raised his price on the free-agent
market considerably. He'll be playing in Tampa Bay in 2000.
Mike Cameron, cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 514 116 24 7 15 77 62 9 59 1 136 32 10 .226 .313 .387 .701 67
Prorated Cin 555 125 25 7 16 83 66 9 63 1 146 34 10 .225 .312 .382 .694 71
Actual Cin 542 139 34 9 21 93 66 6 80 2 145 38 12 .256 .357 .469 .825 99
Mike Cameron took a major step forward in 1999, bouncing back
nicely after an awful season the year before. He does a lot of
things well to make up for a pretty mediocre batting average,
but he'll have to continue to improve to keep pace with Paul Konerko,
the man the Reds gave up to get him.
[TT: On the other hand, Konerko is an average-at-best defensive
1B while Cameron is one of the best defensive CFs in the game.
His defensive contributions will go a long way toward making this
a good deal for the Reds as long as Cameron can continue to hit
as well as he did in 1999.]
Dmitri Young, rf/lf/1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 558 165 42 3 14 83 80 2 49 5 96 5 6 .296 .352 .457 .809 87
Prorated Cin 371 109 27 1 9 55 53 1 32 3 63 3 3 .294 .349 .445 .794 56
Actual Cin 373 112 30 2 14 63 56 2 30 1 71 3 1 .300 .352 .504 .856 65
Young was one of the first players ever traded by the Tampa
Bay Devil Rays, going to the Reds as the player to be named in
the Mike Kelly deal. He left Tampa Bay on the same day that Bobby
Abreu headed to Philadelphia for Kevin Stocker. These two deals
probably go a long way to explaining why Tampa Bay has traded
so infrequently since.
Young had a break-through season in 1998, but a slow start
cut into his playing time last year. On July 1st, he was hitting
only .217 with 2 HRs and 10 RBIs. He was on fire the rest of the
way, regaining his job along the way and showing that his previous
success hadn't been a fluke after all.
Michael Tucker, rf/cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 67 16 4 0 2 10 8 1 7 1 17 1 1 .239 .320 .388 .708 8
Prorated Cin 303 72 18 0 9 45 36 4 31 4 77 4 4 .238 .317 .386 .703 37
Actual Cin 296 75 8 5 11 55 44 3 37 3 81 11 4 .253 .338 .426 .764 45
Tucker came to the Reds in the Denny Neagle trade and it appeared
he'd be stuck behind Vaughn and Young in his new home. It's funny
the difference a year or two can make: after the 1997 season the
Braves seemed to have gotten the better of the Jermaine Dye for
Tucker swap. That trade looks like a steal for the Royals now.
There were rumors during the season that Tucker might be heading
back to Kansas City for a pitcher.
Jeffrey Hammonds, rf/lf/cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 66 18 4 1 2 11 9 1 7 0 13 2 1 .273 .347 .455 .801 11
Prorated Cin 257 70 15 3 7 42 35 3 27 0 50 7 3 .272 .345 .436 .781 40
Actual Cin 262 73 13 0 17 43 41 1 27 0 64 3 6 .279 .347 .523 .870 46
Picked up in a mid-season deal with the Orioles the year before,
Hammonds waited a long time (126 at-bats) to hit his first home
run for the Reds. Like Tucker, we figured he'd spent much of 1999
watching from the dugout. By May 18th, he was hitting only .132
(5-38) with no home runs. He was in the starting line-up the next
day and, perhaps more importantly, in Coors Field. He ended that
day with his first three home runs as a Red and ended the season
with the best power numbers of his career.
Key Pitchers
The Reds allowed 19 fewer runs than expected last year, a feat
that seems more impressive when you consider that of the five
pitchers they counted on to make up their starting rotation at
the end of spring training, three would spend large portions of
the year on the DL and one other would get sent to the minors
in May. A fine season by Steve Parris and the acquisition of Juan
Guzman helped, but the Reds' pitching staff was saved last year
by their relief corps. Three of their relievers, Graves, Williamson
and Sullivan, ranked first, second and fifth in the league in
innings pitched among relievers and their combined ERA was a sparkling
2.85.
Denny Neagle, starter, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.61 27 27 11 9 0 185 171 20 44 137 .246 .688
Prorated Cin 3.61 17 17 7 6 0 114 106 12 27 85 .246 .688
Actual Cin 4.27 20 19 9 5 0 112 95 23 40 76 .229 .769
Neagle's career in Cincinnati couldn't have started out worse.
He began the season on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness.
When he joined the team on April 21st, he was awful. A month later,
he took his 0-3 record and 8.17 ERA back to the DL. This time
he was out ten weeks with a weakness of the rotator cuff. Things
started looking up when he returned and he finished on a hot streak,
winning the NL Pitcher of the Month award for September with a
5-0 record and a 2.00 ERA.
Pete Harnisch, starter, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.34 32 32 11 11 0 197 191 29 63 140 .254 .754
Prorated Cin 4.34 32 32 11 11 0 197 191 29 63 140 .254 .754
Actual Cin 3.68 33 33 16 10 0 198 190 25 57 120 .252 .727
Who needs Spring Training? Harnisch couldn't get anyone out
in Florida, heading north with an no wins, three losses and a
9.14 ERA. So what did he do in his first start of the regular
season? He threw a six-hit shutout of course. For the first time
in his career, Harnisch was able to stay healthy and effective
for two years in a row. He pitched in pain for much of the year
due to a partial tear in his rotator cuff, so it might not be
realistic to expect a third straight fine campaign in 2000.
Steve Avery, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.78 27 27 7 10 0 147 154 17 69 78 .272 .784
Prorated Cin 4.78 18 18 5 7 0 97 101 11 45 51 .272 .784
Actual Cin 5.16 19 19 6 7 0 96 75 11 78 51 .222 .740
It's hard to believe that Avery won't turn 30 until next March
14th. Last year was his tenth major league season, and it's been
ages since he was considered one of the best young pitchers in
the NL. The Reds signed him as a free agent prior to the year
and he pitched very well for a while. On May 23rd, his record
was even at 3-3, but his ERA was an excellent 2.61. He would fail
to get through the third inning in three of his next four starts,
however, and from then on it was a pretty steady downhill ride
until his season ended in late July with a strained shoulder.
He was harder to hit than expected, but simply could not find
the plate in 1999 as he set a career high in walks despite pitching
less than 100 innings.
Brett Tomko, starter, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.77 32 32 11 11 0 200 186 23 58 161 .246 .707
Prorated Cin 3.77 29 29 10 10 0 179 166 21 52 144 .246 .707
Actual Cin 4.92 33 26 5 7 0 172 175 31 60 132 .263 .813
Tomko was brutal in the early going and was sent to the minor
leagues by the end of April. At the time, he was winless in five
starts with a 7.76 ERA. He was recalled two weeks later but was
relegated to the bullpen in late August and given just one more
start the rest of the way. He was very effective in his limited
relief duty, allowing only 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 14 2/3
innings.
Jason Bere, starter, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 5.09 32 32 9 11 0 168 173 23 99 125 .266 .805
Prorated Cin 5.09 9 9 3 3 0 48 50 7 28 36 .266 .805
Actual Cin 6.85 12 10 3 0 0 43 56 6 40 28 .326 .979
Prorated Mil 5.09 4 4 1 1 0 22 23 3 13 17 .266 .805
Actual Mil 4.63 5 4 2 0 0 23 23 3 10 19 .256 .727
Prorated Tot 5.09 13 13 4 5 0 70 73 10 42 52 .266 .805
Actual Tot 6.08 17 14 5 0 0 67 79 9 50 47 .302 .895
Another reclamation project, Bere struggled with his control
before being dropped from the rotation and going to the disabled
list in June with elbow inflammation. He came off the DL in early
August and was promptly released.
Steve Parris, starter, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.41 28 5 4 5 0 80 80 10 27 70 .263 .753
Prorated Cin 4.41 45 8 6 8 0 129 129 16 44 113 .263 .753
Actual Cin 3.50 22 21 11 4 0 129 124 16 52 86 .260 .764
Parris was the odd man out at the end of Spring Training and
began the season in the minor leagues. He was recalled at the
beginning of May after Tomko was sent down and, with the exception
of a stint on the DL in August with shoulder problems, remained
with the Reds the rest of the season. Despite an ERA almost a
run less than anticipated, he actually allowed more base runners
than expected.
Ron Villone, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.32 13 0 1 1 0 17 17 2 12 14 .270 .786
Prorated Cin 4.32 102 0 8 8 0 130 133 16 94 109 .270 .786
Actual Cin 4.23 29 22 9 7 2 143 114 8 73 97 .219 .656
A reliever his entire career, Ron Villone was expected to serve
briefly in that capacity for the Reds last year. He started the
year in the minors before being recalled in the middle of May.
He was fantastic in relief the rest of the month (4 hits and no
runs in 13 1/3 innings) and that got him moved into the starting
rotation at the beginning of June to replace Denny Neagle. It
would be an understatement to say that Villone was inconsistent
in his new role. From June 14th to 30th, he allowed only a single
hit in three of his four starts. In the other, he allowed six
earned runs and got only one man out. A week later, he would follow
up two awful starts with a brilliant one (eight innings pitched,
one hit allowed). This tendency to allow his hits in clusters
might explain why his ERA came so close to his projected rate
when all of the other indicators (hits, home runs and walks allowed)
were so much better than expected.
Juan Guzman, starter, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.07 32 32 13 10 0 210 189 28 92 170 .241 .733
Prorated Bal 4.07 19 19 8 6 0 128 115 17 56 103 .241 .733
Actual Bal 4.18 21 21 5 9 0 123 124 18 65 95 .265 .796
Prorated Cin 4.07 11 11 5 4 0 75 68 10 33 61 .241 .733
Actual Cin 3.03 12 12 6 3 0 77 70 10 21 60 .238 .675
Prorated Tot 4.07 31 31 13 10 0 203 182 27 89 164 .241 .733
Actual Tot 3.74 33 33 11 12 0 200 194 28 86 155 .255 .750
The Reds gave pitching prospect B.J. Ryan to the Orioles for
what may turn out to be two months of Juan Guzman's services.
He pitched fine while in Cincinnati, but he's a free agent and
is unlikely to return.
Scott Sullivan, long reliever, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.52 40 0 4 3 0 72 65 9 22 62 .242 .710
Prorated Cin 3.52 63 0 6 5 0 112 102 14 34 97 .242 .710
Actual Cin 3.01 79 0 5 4 3 114 88 10 47 78 .217 .655
He rebounded from a poor 1998 and joined a number of Red relievers
by having the best year of his career. He has thrown a lot of
innings in relief the last three years (leading all NL relievers
in 1999) and at some point the workload might catch up with him.
Dennys Reyes, middle reliever, age 22
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.23 53 0 4 4 0 72 70 6 38 73 .255 .735
Prorated Cin 4.23 46 0 3 3 0 63 61 5 33 64 .255 .735
Actual Cin 3.79 65 1 2 2 2 62 53 5 39 72 .232 .690
Another in a series of talented young Reds relievers, Reyes
came to Cincinnati along with Paul Konerko in the Jeff Shaw deal.
He pitched primarily as a starter in the minors (with excellent
numbers at AAA in 1998) before pitching somewhat better than anticipated
out of the bullpen last season. His control can be a problem and
he faded badly down the stretch (a 1.72 ERA before the All-Star
break and a 6.84 ERA after), but both of these are not uncommon
in a pitcher as young as Reyes.
Gabe White, middle reliever, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.09 70 0 5 5 1 101 100 15 20 71 .257 .729
Prorated Cin 4.09 44 0 3 3 1 63 62 9 12 44 .257 .729
Actual Cin 4.43 50 0 1 2 0 61 68 13 14 61 .281 .820
He started slowly while everyone else on the staff seemed to
be hot and saw less work than expected as a result. The long-ball
continues to be a problem for him.
Stan Belinda, middle reliever, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.11 53 0 5 2 0 75 64 9 28 78 .229 .698
Prorated Cin 3.11 31 0 3 1 0 44 37 5 16 45 .229 .698
Actual Cin 5.27 29 0 3 1 2 43 42 11 18 40 .258 .843
Belinda was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 1998 but elbow
problems seemed to be at the root of his difficulties last season.
He was on the disabled list until late June and never seemed to
get on track. He was traded to the Rockies after the season, which
couldn't be good news to him.
Danny Graves, closer, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.79 70 0 5 3 28 74 77 5 27 41 .273 .729
Prorated Cin 3.79 101 0 7 4 40 106 111 7 39 59 .273 .729
Actual Cin 3.08 75 0 8 7 27 111 90 10 49 69 .227 .673
By the end of 1998, Graves had won the closer's role on the
club following the departure of Jeff Shaw. A combination of a
slow start and Williamson's torrid pitching caused him to share
the role through much of the year. He pitched very well after
the All-Star break to finish with his best season of his short
career.
Scott Williamson, closer, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.87 30 0 2 3 0 41 42 4 20 41 .268 .766
Prorated Cin 4.87 61 0 4 6 0 83 85 8 41 83 .268 .766
Actual Cin 2.41 62 0 12 7 19 93 54 8 43 107 .171 .564
Despite a fastball in the high 90s and a good slider, Williamson
was not expected to begin the season with the Reds. A fine spring
and an injury to Belinda got Williamson, a starter in the minors,
a job in the Reds bullpen. He took a month to get used to big
league hitters and then went five weeks without allowing a run.
In May and June, he gave up only 17 hits in 39 1/3 innings. He
suffered from shoulder tendinitis as well as a badly cut finger
the last month of the season. Although his ERA rose nearly 60
points in his last four appearances, he still easily won the NL's
Rookie of the Year award. There has been some talk of moving him
into the starting rotation in the future.
Outlook
The Reds began this off-season facing the loss of Greg Vaughn
(to Tampa as a free agent) and the probable loss of Juan Guzman,
two key performers down the stretch.
To replace Vaughn, the Reds sent Jeffrey Hammonds, Stan Belinda
and cash to the Rockies for Dante Bichette. And cash? Bichette
is 36 and it remains to be seen if he can hit outside of Coors
Field. He's actually hit much worse on the road than Hammonds
over the last five years, but Hammonds is a platoon player and
Bichette actually had pretty decent road numbers (14 HRs, .297
AVG and .502 SPC) in 1999. Still, he's certainly not going to
be an improvement on Vaughn and the Reds will miss Hammonds's
bat.
The other big news on offense was the possibility of the Reds
picking up Ken Griffey Jr. It now looks as though the deal is
dead, due to the reluctance of the Cincinnati front office to
include Pokey Reese in any deal.
In addition to replacing Vaughn's runs in the lineup, the other
big question mark for the Reds next year will be their starting
rotation. Neagle finished strongly and should be fine, but Harnisch
pitched in pain much of the year and must be considered a question
mark for 2000. Parris and Villone should also return to the rotation,
but it's unclear where they'll find a fifth starter. There are
a lot of live, young arms in the bullpen and I wouldn't be surprised
to see one or more of them move into the rotation.
Projections and text: Copyright © 1999.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
