This article takes a look at how the Colorado Rockies did in
the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 877 906
Runs allowed 901 1028
Run margin -29 -122
Wins 79 72
Pythagorean Wins 79 71
Placement 4th 5th
They say it's easier to replace the manager than the players,
but after Jim Leyland failed to turn them around, the Rockies
seem ready to try it the hard way. In fact, they've done both;
a new GM (Dan O'Dowd), manager (Buddy Bell) and 15 new players
will go to spring training in February.
Key Position Players
The challenge for the Rockies in replacing the team is recognizing
the distorting effect that Coors Field has on player statistics,
and recognizing what's in need of improvement. The Colorado offense
was second in the league last season in runs scored, just barely
behind Arizona, but down at sea level, the Rockies weren't so
productive. If they scored runs at home at the rate they scored
them on the road, they would have been worst in the league.
Henry Blanco, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 68 17 4 0 1 7 9 0 6 0 13 1 0 .250 .307 .353 .660 7
Prorated Col 274 68 16 0 4 28 36 0 24 0 52 4 0 .248 .305 .350 .655 29
Actual Col 263 61 12 3 6 30 28 1 34 1 38 1 1 .232 .320 .369 .689 33
Now with Milwaukee. You might think that Blanco didn't get
a boost from Coors with these numbers, but he wasn't even close
to the Mendoza line on the road. The Rockies have signed Brent
Mayne as a free agent; if Mayne repeats his San Francisco level
of performance, he'll look like an all-star in Coors.
Kirt Manwaring, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 86 20 3 1 0 7 7 1 9 0 18 0 0 .233 .313 .291 .603 8
Prorated Col 137 31 4 1 0 11 11 1 14 0 28 0 0 .226 .303 .270 .573 11
Actual Col 137 41 7 1 2 17 14 5 12 1 23 0 0 .299 .374 .409 .783 21
Manwaring has a reputation as a good defensive catcher, and
his road numbers (.267/.362/.367) suggest that he's an adequate
backup catcher offensively. However, Manwaring is a free agent,
and the Rockies just signed Scott Servais to a minor-league contract
with an invitation to the big-league camp.
Ben Petrick, c, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Col 62 20 3 0 4 13 12 0 10 0 13 1 0 .323 .417 .565 .981 15
The catcher of the future for the Rockies, Petrick went from
AA to AAA to the majors this season, and hit well at all three
levels. He showed substantial improvement from previous seasons,
and is still pretty young. He may not be ready next season, but
should be there soon.
Todd Helton, 1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 550 172 38 1 23 87 99 4 60 5 70 3 3 .313 .381 .511 .892 106
Prorated Col 582 182 40 1 24 92 104 4 63 5 74 3 3 .313 .381 .509 .889 112
Actual Col 578 185 39 5 35 114 113 6 68 6 77 7 6 .320 .395 .587 .981 132
Until Peyton Manning's breakthrough season this fall, Helton
was the former University of Tennessee quarterback with the best
pro career. These numbers look gaudy, but Helton isn't nearly
so impressive on the road, where he only managed .252/.324/.447.
Here's a spot where the Rockies are likely to conclude they're
set, but really could use more production.
Mike Lansing, 2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 552 158 38 1 15 80 62 5 37 3 87 11 4 .286 .335 .440 .775 80
Prorated Col 141 40 9 0 3 20 15 1 9 0 22 2 1 .284 .331 .411 .742 18
Actual Col 145 45 9 0 4 24 15 1 7 0 22 2 0 .310 .344 .455 .799 23
Lansing was projected to be the starter, but back problems
limited his playing time, finally ending his season by the end
of June. He's expected to recover from back surgery and be the
starter at second base next year. Despite back pain, he performed
better than expected, and unusually, performed on the road as
well as he did at Coors.
Terry Shumpert, 2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 69 16 4 0 1 10 7 1 4 0 12 1 1 .232 .284 .333 .617 6
Prorated Col 279 64 16 0 4 40 28 4 16 0 48 4 4 .229 .281 .330 .611 25
Actual Col 262 91 26 3 10 58 37 2 31 2 41 14 0 .347 .413 .584 .997 69
Shumpert put up the best numbers of the legion of substitute
second basemen, so he gets re-signed as the back up second basemen.
Even after accounting for the Coors boost, his numbers were respectable
last year.
Kurt Abbott, 2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 93 28 7 1 3 14 12 1 6 0 27 1 1 .301 .347 .495 .841 15
Prorated Col 278 83 20 2 8 41 35 2 17 0 80 2 2 .299 .341 .471 .812 43
Actual Col 286 78 17 2 8 41 41 0 16 0 69 3 2 .273 .310 .430 .740 38
Subtracting the Coors boost from Abbott's numbers take them
from respectable to weak. Abbott batted .181/.245/.276 on the
road last season. Abbott is a free agent, and with Shumpert's
re-signing, seems less likely to be re-signed.
Neifi Perez, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 619 176 27 9 10 86 63 1 32 2 70 9 8 .284 .318 .405 .724 79
Prorated Col 675 192 29 9 10 93 68 1 34 2 76 9 8 .284 .317 .399 .716 84
Actual Col 690 193 27 11 12 108 70 1 28 0 54 13 5 .280 .307 .403 .710 87
On the road, Perez hit .251/.287/.356, which suggests that
he's really a below-average offensive shortstop, rather than the
average shortstop his overall numbers would indicate. He's still
young, though, and replacing him with an average offensive shortstop
wouldn't have a big impact on the offense. Reportedly, the Rockies
are trying to decide whether to bat Perez or Lansing in the number
two spot in the order; that decision shouldn't take long.
Vinny Castilla, 3b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 589 174 26 2 37 91 115 6 36 7 97 3 4 .295 .340 .535 .875 99
Prorated Col 625 184 27 2 39 96 122 6 38 7 102 3 4 .294 .339 .531 .870 104
Actual Col 615 169 24 1 33 83 102 1 53 7 75 2 3 .275 .331 .478 .809 94
Castilla is now with Tampa Bay. Castilla performed somewhat
less well than expected, and was about at the league average for
third basemen. He didn't get as big a boost from Coors as most
of his teammates, hitting .264/.312/.458 on the road. The new
third baseman for Colorado is Jeff Cirillo, who doesn't have Castilla's
home run pop, but doesn't make as many outs as Castilla either;
Cirillo's OBP last year was 70 points higher than Castilla's.
Cirillo is also 6 years younger than Castilla.
Dante Bichette, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 578 177 38 2 21 83 110 2 28 2 86 11 5 .306 .338 .488 .826 90
Prorated Col 621 190 40 2 22 89 118 2 30 2 92 11 5 .306 .337 .483 .820 95
Actual Col 593 177 38 2 34 104 133 2 54 3 84 6 6 .298 .354 .541 .895 110
Bichette is now with the Reds; in exchange, the Rockies got
the player they expect to replace Bichette, Jeffrey Hammonds,
and reliever Stan Belinda. Bichette performed above his projection
last year, and he did it on the road as well, hitting .287/.342/.502.
It's probably the right time to trade Bichette, but I'm not sure
Hammonds is the answer as his replacement. Hammonds had a good
year last season in Cincy, but as a part-time player. Hammonds
has never been an everyday player in the majors. The Rockies do
have a few young outfielders waiting in the wings in Clemente,
Gibson, and Rod Bair.
Edgard Clemente, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 71 16 2 1 2 9 10 0 4 0 18 1 0 .225 .267 .366 .633 7
Prorated Col 161 36 4 2 4 20 22 0 9 0 41 2 0 .224 .265 .348 .613 15
Actual Col 162 41 10 2 8 24 25 0 7 0 46 0 0 .253 .282 .488 .770 21
AKA Edgard Velazquez.. Clemente, the nephew of Roberto, saw
his first significant major league action this season, and while
the numbers weren't great, they were better than projected. His
minor league numbers were pretty good, and Clemente's major league
numbers are likely to improve, given the chance to play. The Rockies
have signed Tom Goodwin to a three-year deal as their center fielder
and leadoff hitter, which suggests that the Rockies don't think
Clemente will be the answer in center.
Darryl Hamilton, cf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 631 192 34 5 5 107 55 2 74 1 79 15 9 .304 .377 .398 .775 99
Prorated Col 331 100 17 2 2 56 28 1 38 0 41 7 4 .302 .374 .384 .757 50
Actual Col 337 102 11 3 4 63 24 1 38 0 21 4 5 .303 .374 .389 .763 49
Prorated NYN 165 50 8 1 1 28 14 0 19 0 20 3 2 .303 .373 .382 .755 24
Actual NYN 168 57 8 1 5 19 21 1 19 0 18 2 3 .339 .410 .488 .898 34
Prorated Tot 496 151 26 3 3 84 43 1 58 0 62 11 7 .304 .376 .387 .763 76
Actual Tot 505 159 19 4 9 82 45 2 57 0 39 6 8 .315 .386 .422 .808 83
Hamilton was performing exactly as projected offensively, though
there was concern about his defense in center field. The Rockies
outfielders have a lot of ground to cover, and Colorado was trying
to do it with a collection of old legs. Hamilton was traded to
the Mets for Brian McRae, who was then shipped on to Toronto.
The Rockies plan to solve their center field problem with the
speedy Tom Goodwin.
Larry Walker, rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 544 188 50 2 37 132 99 9 73 7 90 24 6 .346 .429 .649 1.078 154
Prorated Col 443 153 40 1 30 107 80 7 59 5 73 19 4 .345 .429 .643 1.072 125
Actual Col 438 166 26 4 37 108 115 12 57 8 52 11 4 .379 .458 .710 1.168 143
Bothered by sore knees all season, Walker played well, just
not as often. His road performance (.286/.375/.519) was respectable,
though nothing compared to the incredible Coors numbers he put
up (.461/.531/.879). Walker's been bothered by sore joints the
last two seasons (elbow in '98, knee in '99); Colorado has to
hope that's an aberration, not a sign of increasing age. Walker
has lost weight and improved his off-season conditioning, which
should help.
Key Pitchers
The pitching staff wasn't great, even if it wasn't quite as
bad as Coors made it look. On the road, the staff only managed
a 4.84 ERA, which is still worse than the league average. The
bullpen lacked an effective lefty, the closer blew too many saves,
and only Pedro Astacio performed well in the rotation. The pitching
staff has seen the most change in the off-season, with 9 new pitchers
already; don't expect to see too many of the following pitchers
on the team next year.
Pedro Astacio, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.06 32 32 7 16 0 200 241 34 71 170 .301 .868
Prorated Col 6.06 36 36 8 18 0 225 271 38 80 191 .301 .868
Actual Col 5.04 34 34 17 11 0 232 258 38 75 210 .285 .822
Astacio performed better than projected, and quite respectably
on the road, where he posted a 3.60 ERA. Maybe that's why he's
still on the team. The 17 victories don't hurt either. Astacio
is one of the few pitchers with a lock on a job in the rotation.
The only other is recently acquired Rolando Arrojo, part of the
big four-team trade.
Brian Bohanon, starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.54 32 32 8 14 0 187 210 27 77 144 .286 .839
Prorated Col 5.54 35 35 9 15 0 203 228 29 84 156 .286 .839
Actual Col 6.20 33 33 12 12 0 197 236 30 92 120 .305 .885
Bohanon will be in the mix fighting for the three remaining
rotation spots, along with newcomers Scott Karl, Manny Aybar,
and Jose Jimenez (of no-hitter fame). Bohanon and Karl are the
lefties in the group, and Bohanon has been somewhat better at
inducing ground balls in his career than Karl, which may give
him a leg up. On the road last year, Bohanon posted a 5.02 ERA,
and gave up fewer hits than innings pitched.
[TT: Here's what I wrote about the Rockies back in the spring...
"A year ago, their big free-agent signing was a pitcher
(Darryl Kile) with one good season in the previous three who did
his work in a pitcher's park (Astrodome). We figured the three-year
averages and adjusted for the difference in ballparks and came
up with a projected ERA of 5.14. His actual 1998 ERA was 5.20.
And people were disappointed.
I fear we're destined to repeat history. This year, the Rockies'
big free-agent signing is Brian Bohanon, a pitcher with one good
season in the last three who is moving from a pair of pitcher's
parks (Shea Stadium and Dodger Stadium). Sound familiar? I hope,
for Brian's sake, that Colorado management isn't expecting way
too much."]
Darryl Kile, starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.28 32 32 10 13 0 199 227 25 87 160 .288 .809
Prorated Col 5.28 32 32 10 13 0 198 225 25 86 159 .288 .809
Actual Col 6.61 32 32 8 13 0 191 225 33 109 116 .298 .891
Now with St. Louis, Kile went over in the trade that brought
Aybar and Jimenez. Kile was a disappointment in Colorado, who
signed him after his great season in Houston in 1997. Kile wasn't
even very effective on the road for Colorado, with a 5.89 ERA
and a 3-10 record. Busch Stadium is likely to be a friendlier
place for Kile to resurrect his career.
Jamey Wright, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.66 27 27 7 12 0 167 196 19 77 84 .297 .844
Prorated Col 5.66 15 15 4 7 0 93 110 11 43 47 .297 .844
Actual Col 4.87 16 16 4 3 0 94 110 10 54 49 .308 .877
Wright is now in Milwaukee, gone as part of the four-team Vinny
Castilla trade. Wright is one of the few home-grown talents on
the Rockies, and had his best season for them this past year,
posting better numbers at the big league level than he did in
Colorado Springs.
Bobby Jones, starter/middle reliever , age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.85 34 4 3 6 0 72 86 8 39 60 .298 .849
Prorated Col 5.85 55 6 5 10 0 117 139 13 63 97 .298 .849
Actual Col 6.33 30 20 6 10 0 112 132 24 77 74 .292 .912
Jones didn't do much to impress last year, and doesn't seem
to figure in the Rockies' rotation plans for 2000. That's way
too many walks to give up and survive Coors; it's the kiss of
death to put free base runners on in a park that inflates offense
so much.
Mike DeJean, middle reliever, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.01 57 4 4 5 0 94 102 5 32 49 .279 .740
Prorated Col 4.01 40 3 3 4 0 67 72 4 23 35 .279 .740
Actual Col 8.41 57 0 2 4 0 61 83 13 32 31 .335 .971
DeJean wasn't sharp on the road, with a 6.28 ERA, and his numbers
in Coors were wretched -- a 10.30 ERA, 53 hits in 32.1 innings,
and 9 homers. DeJean struggled mightily with the long ball, giving
up 3 times as many dingers this season as in past seasons, and
more hits in general. With all the new arms coming in to fight
for bullpen jobs, DeJean could find himself on the outside looking
in next season, despite his previous success in Colorado.
Jerry DiPoto, reliever, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.27 70 0 2 7 25 72 80 8 28 56 .286 .794
Prorated Col 4.27 84 0 2 8 30 86 96 10 34 67 .286 .794
Actual Col 4.26 63 0 4 5 1 87 91 10 44 69 .279 .798
DiPoto went from closer to setup man, and now is poised to
move back to the closer role after the trade of Dave Veres. DiPoto
was one of the more effective pitchers in the pen last year for
Colorado, and was almost as effective at home as on the road.
Curt Leskanic, middle reliever, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.63 70 0 5 5 2 93 98 13 53 86 .272 .815
Prorated Col 4.63 64 0 5 5 2 85 89 12 48 78 .272 .815
Actual Col 5.08 63 0 6 2 0 85 87 7 49 77 .272 .796
Leskanic is now with Milwaukee, traded for left-handed reliever
Mike Myers. Leskanic's numbers weren't that far off projections,
and really were pretty decent for a reliever in Coors. With all
the new, younger arms the Rockies had added, though, Leskanic
was deemed expendable, and was shipped off to fill a void in the
bullpen: someone who could get left-handed hitters out. Myers
held lefties to a .188 batting average last season.
Chuck McElroy, middle reliever, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.00 70 0 4 4 1 72 79 5 27 68 .280 .739
Prorated Col 4.00 43 0 2 2 1 44 48 3 16 41 .280 .739
Actual Col 6.20 41 0 3 1 0 41 48 9 28 37 .296 .933
Prorated NYN 4.00 13 0 1 1 0 13 15 1 5 13 .280 .739
Actual NYN 3.38 15 0 0 0 0 13 12 0 8 7 .250 .716
Prorated Tot 4.00 56 0 3 3 1 57 63 4 22 54 .280 .739
Actual Tot 5.50 56 0 3 1 0 54 60 9 36 44 .286 .883
McElroy was traded to the Mets along with Darryl Hamilton.
Like several other Rockie relievers (no pun intended), he had
difficulty with the long ball this season. His biggest problem,
though, was his ineffectiveness against left-handed hitters, who
batted .266/.359/.494.
David Lee, middle reliever, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Col 3.67 36 0 3 2 0 49 43 4 29 38 .247 .731
Lee had a busy travel summer, pitching for AA Carolina, AAA
Colorado Springs, and the Rockies. Giving up less than a hit per
inning pitched while pitching for Colorado is quite an achievement,
and while the walk total is a little high, that's not as deadly
for a reliever. Lee's outstanding 0.93 road ERA should rate him
a chance at next year's bullpen.
Roberto Ramirez, middle reliever , age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.86 53 0 2 3 0 54 53 12 30 59 .259 .848
Prorated Col 4.86 46 0 2 3 0 47 46 10 26 52 .259 .848
Actual Col 8.26 32 4 1 5 1 40 68 8 22 32 .368 1.035
Another lefty who failed to get lefties out, Ramirez struggled
to retire anybody last season. He wasn't much more effective on
the road than at Coors, with a 6.14 ERA and 26 hits allowed in
only 14.2 innings.
Dave Veres, closer, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.10 30 0 2 2 0 42 43 4 17 40 .269 .747
Prorated Col 4.10 58 0 4 4 0 81 83 8 33 78 .269 .747
Actual Col 5.14 73 0 4 8 31 77 88 14 37 71 .290 .838
Veres converted 31 of 39 save opportunities, which is not particularly
good, so even if he hadn't been traded to St. Louis, he probably
would have been moved out of the closer role. More so than probably
any other pitcher on the staff, you want your closer to keep the
ball in the park, because the closer is often pitching in high
leverage situations, where a homer can end a game right then.
Veres was not very effective at doing that last year, and which
explains the low save percentage. Coors was his downfall; 11 of
the 14 homers were given up at home.
Outlook
The Rockies have made a lot of changes since last season, but
they needed to. In a park like Coors, you need players who get
on base and can cover ground defensively, especially in the outfield,
and the Rockies have acquired players that should improve the
team in those areas. They've gotten somewhat younger, though not
dramatically so. The pitching staff will be different; how well
all those pitchers adapt to Coors will be key.
With so many changes, including the GM and manager, the Rockies
are one of the harder teams to predict for next season. They'll
still be far from one of the best teams in the league, but the
NL West isn't exactly stocked with the best teams in the league.
The Rockies wouldn't be my first choice to win the West next year,
but in this division, an average team with a few players having
career years can surprise. With their moves, the Rockies have
probably moved closer to that average team status.
Copyright © 1999. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
