This article takes a look at how the Detroit Tigers did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                   Projected  Actual
Runs for              794       747
Runs allowed          828       882
Run Margin            -34      -135
Wins                   79        69
Pythagorean wins       78        68
Placement             2nd       3rd

No steps forward, two steps back is an apt characterization of Detroit's disappointing 1999 season. The Tigers started the season by losing six of their first seven games, setting the tone for what followed.

1999 should have been a feel-good year all-around as the team and the fans bid grand old Tiger Stadium adieu. Instead, the Tigers crashed and burned in the first half of the season as the players went through the motions before a mostly empty ballpark.

After the All-Star break, Detroit started drawing better as the alienated fans in Motown realized that there weren't going to be many more chances to take in a game at the hallowed corner of Michigan and Trumbull. By then, though, it was way too late to salvage anything from the season except waves of nostalgia -- and GM Randy Smith's job.

Smith, who basked in deserved accolades after his first two seasons in Detroit, was the subject of numerous rumors late in the year. He avoided owner Mike Ilitch's ax, though he wielded his own halberd and chopped off rookie manager Larry Parrish's head. Afterward, Randy was so anxious to sign Milwaukee refugee skipper Phil Garner that Detroit was the only team fined by the commissioner for not interviewing qualified minority candidates for a high-level job.

Key Position Players

The big news of the off-season in Michigan was the blockbuster trade in early November with Texas that netted the Tigers slugging outfielder Juan Gonzalez, pitcher Danny Patterson and catcher Greg Zaun. The cost was steep, as Detroit gave up pitchers Justin Thompson, Francisco Cordero and Alan Webb, outfielder Gabe Kapler, catcher Bill Haselman and infielder Frank Catalanotto.

That trade translates into Detroit sending its number three starter (and only southpaw in the rotation), two of its best pitching prospects, its young starting center fielder, and two quality reserves to Texas for Gonzalez, plus a middle-aged middle reliever who had the worst season of his career in '99, plus a weak-hitting backup catcher. All of this, of course, with no assurance that Juan will re-up with Detroit after the final year of his contract in 2000.

Even if he posts MVP-type numbers again, Gonzalez won't be able to carry Detroit all by himself. He'll need help from outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Bobby Higginson, and from infielders Dean Palmer, Damion Easley, and Tony Clark. Unfortunately, four of those five key players (all except Palmer) slumped in '99, resulting in the team's offense being a substantial underachiever.

The primary culprit for the lack of runs was the team's pitiful .326 on-base average, second-to-last in the AL and one of only four teams with a sub-.340 OBA (the others being Anaheim, Minnesota, and Chicago). Even if Detroit's sluggers had performed as anticipated, the Tigers aren't going to score enough runs to contend if no one is on base when the balls fly over the fence.

Brad Ausmus, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 464 117 16  2  7  63  49  3  50  8  73 11  5  .252  .327  .341  .667  52
Prorated   Det 465 117 16  2  7  63  49  3  50  8  73 11  5  .252  .326  .340  .666  51
Actual     Det 458 126 25  6  9  62  54 14  51  0  71 12  9  .275  .365  .415  .779  70

Having the best offensive year of your career by a small margin in 1999 is nothing to get excited about. Ausmus' strength is his defense (he threw out 32 of 91 attempted basestealers and made only two errors in 127 games). Unfortunately, those attributes are largely wasted in a power-friendly ballpark in a power-based league in a peak-power era. Another of his talents is good speed for a catcher, as evidenced by his six triples and 12 steals. Because of that speed and his OBA, he actually led off seven games for Detroit!

Bill Haselman, c, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  91  23  5  0  4  10  12  0   5  1  18  0  0  .253  .289  .440  .728  11
Prorated   Det 143  36  7  0  6  15  18  0   7  1  28  0  0  .252  .285  .427  .711  16
Actual     Det 143  39  8  0  4  13  14  0  10  1  26  2  0  .273  .320  .413  .733  18

Haselman had a good year backing up Ausmus; in return, Detroit sent him back to Texas (where he had his career year in 1998) in the Gonzalez deal. As usual, he hit lefties better than righties. Defensively, Haselman made only one error in 39 games behind the plate and kept enemy runners to about the league average in stealing percentage.

Robert Fick, c/dh/1b , age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  67  17  4  0  3  11  10  1   6  1  11  1  0  .254  .320  .448  .768  10
Prorated   Det  43  11  2  0  1   7   6  0   3  0   7  0  0  .256  .304  .372  .676   5
Actual     Det  41   9  0  0  3   6  10  0   7  0   6  1  0  .220  .327  .439  .766   6

Fick endured a very disappointing season, spending almost the whole year on the DL due to a left shoulder injury. He underwent surgery in May and wasn't activated till early September. Because of the injury, it was a lost year: what little playing time he got late in the season wasn't enough to establish whether he could handle catching at the ML level defensively, nor was it enough to get a good read on whether his terrific 1998 at AA was a real indicator of his ML hitting ability.

Unless Fick can establish himself in the spring, he'll likely spend time in 2000 as a part-time catcher, part-time DH, and reserve first baseman. If he never does anything else in his career, he'll always be remembered for hitting the final home run ever in Tiger Stadium - an eighth-inning grand slam off K.C.'s Jeff Montgomery that nearly cleared the right field roof and left everyone in the capacity crowd cheering.

Tony Clark, 1b, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 557 153 30  1 32  87 101  3  62  6 128  1  2  .275  .348  .504  .852  97
Prorated   Det 541 148 29  0 31  84  98  2  60  5 124  0  1  .274  .346  .499  .845  93
Actual     Det 536 150 29  0 31  74  99  6  64  7 133  2  1  .280  .361  .507  .869  98

Clark finished 1999 pretty close to where he was expected to. Regrettably, that still left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, since his miserable first half (.240 BA, .318 OBA, .384 SA) was a prime factor in the team's descent into despair. His torrid hitting after the All-Star break (.317/.400/.622) was certainly welcome, but the season was over for Detroit long before then.

It's a common myth that good power hitters are consistent. In reality, most big-time power hitters are frightfully streaky. But Clark isn't that good of a slugger to excuse this kind of schizoid performance.

Frank Catalanotto, 2b/1b/3b, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  95  26  5  1  3  12  13  2   7  1  15  1  2  .274  .333  .442  .775  13
Prorated   Det 285  78 15  3  9  36  39  6  21  3  45  3  6  .274  .333  .442  .775  40
Actual     Det 286  79 19  0 11  41  35  9  15  1  49  3  4  .276  .327  .458  .785  42

Catalanotto has been remarkably consistent offensively in his brief ML career. What he needed was a manager who appreciated what he could do, and who gave him more playing time to do it. Frank found that manager in Larry Parrish, but both Parrish and Catalanotto have now departed Motown. With more experience under his belt entering his prime years, Catalanotto could open some eyes and become an even more valuable reserve player in Texas.

Damion Easley, 2b, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 553 142 35  2 21  85  83 15  47  2 106 18  7  .257  .330  .441  .771  81
Prorated   Det 559 143 35  2 21  85  83 15  47  2 107 18  7  .256  .329  .438  .767  81
Actual     Det 549 146 30  1 20  83  65 19  51  2 124 11  3  .266  .346  .434  .779  84

Easley signed a four-year contract extension in April last year that ties him up through 2004, with a club option for 2005. That's how much faith the Detroit brain trust had in his ability, and Damion turned in another good-but-not-great year with the bat. In the field, he played well at second and even was pressed into emergency duty at shortstop, where he acquitted himself admirably. At 30, Easley could still have a career year if he's both lucky and healthy, but he's pretty good as he is (.779 OPS vs. .768 for average AL second baseman).

Deivi Cruz, ss, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 548 139 29  3  5  57  55  3  18  0  67  4  5  .254  .280  .345  .625  50
Prorated   Det 520 132 27  2  4  54  52  2  17  0  63  3  4  .254  .279  .337  .616  46
Actual     Det 518 147 35  0 13  64  58  4  12  0  57  1  4  .284  .302  .427  .729  63

Cruz developed legitimate power at age 24 -- at least, for a guy who essentially couldn't hit a lick previously. He set career highs in batting, on-base, and slugging in '99, though he still refuses to work the count and walked an embarrassing 12 times. Of course, Deivi didn't make the big leagues by virtue of his lumber, and he displayed plus range at short in '99. Cruz finished the season strongly at the plate; that plus his age augurs well for continued improvement in 2000.

Dean Palmer, 3b, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 599 154 28  1 35  83 108  5  48  3 146  4  1  .257  .313  .482  .795  90
Prorated   Det 570 146 26  0 33  79 102  4  45  2 139  3  0  .256  .311  .475  .786  83
Actual     Det 560 147 25  2 38  92 100 10  57  3 153  3  3  .263  .339  .518  .857  97

What you see is what you get with Dean Palmer. He pretty much did what was asked of him when he was inked by Detroit to a five-year deal as a free agent after the 1998 season. Dean absolutely destroyed lefties in '99, hitting .390 with a .432 on-base and .750 slugging against southpaws, far more than his normal platoon spread.

Juan Encarnacion, lf/cf, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 535 146 26  7 15  80  66 13  29  2 108 25  7  .273  .322  .432  .754  76
Prorated   Det 492 134 23  6 13  73  60 11  26  1  99 23  6  .272  .320  .423  .742  68
Actual     Det 509 130 30  6 19  62  74  9  14  1 113 33 12  .255  .287  .450  .736  61

Like too many tools players with poor plate discipline, Encarnacion found out that major league pitchers are a lot smarter than minor league pitchers -- they long ago figured out that they didn't need to throw strikes to hitters who persist in swinging at marginal pitches. Juan's got way too much talent to flop completely, but he isn't going to make much of that talent if he doesn't learn to take some pitches: 14 walks in 538 plate appearances is asking for a ticket back to AAA.

Encarnacion was hit in the face by a pitch in late September, fracturing his cheekbone and nose. Obviously, this serious injury is another caution for expecting too much from him in the immediate future.

Gabe Kapler, cf/rf, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  87  23  5  1  4  14  13  1   7  1  14  1  1  .264  .323  .483  .806  14
Prorated   Det 424 112 24  4 19  68  63  4  34  4  68  4  4  .264  .322  .474  .796  65
Actual     Det 416 102 22  4 18  60  49  2  42  0  74 11  5  .245  .315  .447  .762  59

Despite his well-sculpted body, unexpected speed, and good range in the outfield, Kapler disappointed last year at the plate. It was his first full year in the big leagues, so that experience should result in improved offensive stats in 2000. Though he was far from awful as a rookie, it remains an open question whether he has the talent to be a major league star. Because of his power potential (.202 isolated power in '99), he was a key part of the Gonzalez trade.

Kimera Bartee, cf, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  69  13  2  0  0   9   5  0   5  0  19  4  2  .188  .243  .217  .461   4
Prorated   Det  81  15  2  0  0  10   5  0   5  0  22  4  2  .185  .233  .210  .442   4
Actual     Det  77  15  1  3  0  11   3  0   9  0  20  3  3  .195  .279  .286  .565   6

Despite his speed, Bartee will never hit enough to be anything other than a useful reserve glove in the pasture.

Brian Hunter, cf, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 639 165 30  5  5  89  41  2  43  0 107 51 14  .258  .306  .344  .650  71
Prorated   Det  57  14  2  0  0   7   3  0   3  0   9  4  1  .246  .283  .281  .564   5
Actual     Det  55  13  2  1  0   8   0  1   5  0  11  0  3  .236  .311  .309  .621   5

Prorated   Sea 486 125 22  3  3  67  31  1  32  0  81 38 10  .257  .303  .333  .637  52
Actual     Sea 484 112 11  5  4  71  34  1  32  0  80 44  5  .231  .277  .300  .576  46

Prorated   Tot 543 140 25  4  4  75  34  1  36  0  91 43 11  .258  .304  .341  .645  59
Actual     Tot 539 125 13  6  4  79  34  2  37  0  91 44  8  .232  .280  .301  .581  50

Hunter wore out his welcome in Detroit when he continued to refuse to take a pitch, earning an early-season trade to Seattle. The Mariners, perennially unable to solve their left field problems, played him every day, but it didn't do anything to improve his inadequate hitting or his pathetic plate discipline.

Bobby Higginson, rf/dh, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 574 163 34  3 25  90  89  4  61  3  85  5  4  .284  .355  .484  .839  98
Prorated   Det 397 112 23  2 17  62  61  2  42  2  58  3  2  .282  .352  .479  .831  67
Actual     Det 377  90 18  0 12  51  46  2  64  2  66  4  6  .239  .351  .382  .733  54

Fan favorite Higginson stopped overachieving and suffered through a terrible year, which ended with his being unable to play the outfield after he returned from the DL in late August. He finally had surgery on his right big toe on September 15; it was a sprain to that toe that disabled him for a month in late July. Detroit tried to trade him last year, but there was no taker at the price the Tigers were asking.

Given his injury, Higginson can't be traded until he proves he's healthy and has a reasonable chance of returning to his previous form. If he's not traded in the spring, he'll probably end up as a part-time DH and utility outfielder in 2000. A comeback would be expected if he's healthy, but a return to his 1997-98 form is probably asking too much.

Karim Garcia, rf/lf, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  82  18  3  1  4  11  13  0   6  1  21  1  1  .220  .270  .427  .696   9
Prorated   Det 285  62 10  3 13  38  45  0  20  3  73  3  3  .218  .266  .411  .677  31
Actual     Det 288  69 10  3 14  38  32  0  20  1  67  2  4  .240  .288  .441  .729  36

Ex-Detroit manager Sparky Anderson used to have a drawing posted on his office wall, the caption of which went something like this: "Every five minutes the world turns over on top of someone who thought he was sitting on top of it." That aphorism seems to be more and more applicable to Randy Smith, the supposedly genius wheeler-dealer who traded Luis Gonzalez to Arizona for Garcia. (Of course, there are multiple other good reasons aside from that trade.)

Detroit had high hopes for Garcia in '99, and everyone thought that acquiring the young and talented outfielder from Arizona for journeyman Luis Gonzalez was a major coup. Garcia marginally improved on his '98 numbers, but not enough to show that he'll ever realize his potential. However, with the departure of center fielder Gabe Kapler, Karim will have a good chance to win the center field job next year. He's certainly young enough and talented enough to grow into a significant contributor, but there's no guarantee that he's mature enough to do so.

Luis Polonia, lf/rf/dh, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  71  16  1  0  0   9   4  0   4  0   9  3  2  .225  .267  .239  .506   4
Prorated   Det 336  75  4  0  0  42  18  0  18  0  42 14  9  .223  .263  .235  .498  18
Actual     Det 333 108 21  8 10  46  32  2  16  0  32 17  9  .324  .357  .526  .882  62

After two years of lighting up pitchers in Mexico (.377 and .381 batting averages in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with line-drive power), Polonia made it back to The Show in '99. Luis surprised everyone except Randy Smith, his mother, and his agent by hitting the cover off the ball in Detroit, earning himself a contract for 2000 with a club option for 2001. At 35, he's not likely to come close to repeating his surprising performance of last year.

A valuable reserve? Yes. A good DH? Not bloody likely.

Gregg Jefferies, dh/1b/lf, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det 637 167 27  2 13  85  66  1  46  7  35 15  6  .262  .311  .372  .683  71
Prorated   Det 208  54  8  0  4  27  21  0  15  2  11  4  1  .260  .308  .356  .664  22
Actual     Det 205  41  8  0  6  22  18  4  13  1  11  3  4  .200  .258  .327  .585  15

It was bad enough that Anaheim gave Jefferies another chance late in 1998 when he clearly had little left. It was inexcusable that Detroit signed Jefferies to be a designated hitter based on a misleading .347 batting average and .472 slugging average in 19 games with the Angels. Gregg was plain awful with the Bengals in between three stints on the DL for a right elbow contusion and right hamstring problems. Given his injuries, he might be better in 2000, but he's certainly not a good enough hitter to play without a position.

Gabe Alvarez, dh/rf/3b, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Det  68  16  4  0  3   8  11  0   6  0  16  0  0  .235  .293  .426  .720   8
Prorated   Det  50  11  2  0  2   5   8  0   4  0  11  0  0  .220  .278  .380  .658   5
Actual     Det  53  11  3  0  2   5   4  0   3  0   9  0  0  .208  .250  .377  .627   5

Relegated primarily to outfield and designated hitting duty by his own defensive problems at the hot corner and by the acquisition of Palmer, Alvarez spent most of the year in Toledo, where he hit .285 with 21 homers in 410 at-bats. His star, way overrated in the past, is fading fast.

Key Pitchers

The Tigers had a pitching staff in 1999 that was composed of too many mediocre pitchers. It had no genuine veteran rotation anchor, and all of the top prospects in the system struggled to learn at the big-league level or struggled with injuries. Moehler, Thompson, Greisinger, and Blair all disappointed. Mlicki and Weaver were pleasant surprises, but the former wasn't brilliant and the latter suffered from the effects of a premature promotion.

Detroit's starters' ERA was more than a half run above league average (for starting pitching), while its bullpen was a shade below the league norm.

Brian Moehler, starter, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  4.34  32 32  11 11  0  199 205 23  57 106  .269  .748
Prorated   Det  4.34  33 33  11 11  0  205 212 24  59 109  .269  .748
Actual     Det  5.04  32 32  10 16  0  196 229 22  59 106  .294  .788

The scuffballer who had posted a surprising 3.90 ERA in his sophomore year in '98 found life just a bit harder last year. Moehler started off just fine, going 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in April. In his first start in May, however, he was caught defacing the ball and was ejected and sentenced to a ten-day suspension. Not coincidentally, the reprobate struggled for the rest of the year under the watchful eyes of the men in blue, logging a 5.26 ERA after the first month of the season. Moehler has shown he has both the tools (both baseball-wise and Black-and-Decker-wise) and the savvy to continue to be a rotation starter, but he's probably not going to see ERAs south of 4.00 again.

Justin Thompson, starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  3.46  32 32  15  9  0  216 202 16  70 148  .249  .671
Prorated   Det  3.46  22 22  10  6  0  151 141 11  49 103  .249  .671
Actual     Det  5.11  24 24   9 11  0  143 152 24  59  83  .274  .796

Thompson slumped substantially in '99, probably due to a shoulder injury that wasn't diagnosed until mid-August. He underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn labrum in his left shoulder in late August and is supposed to be ready to pitch in spring training. However, a longer recovery period is virtually certain, though he stands a good chance of eventually regaining his pre-1999 performance in the future with Texas.

Dave Mlicki, starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection LA   4.50   4  4   1  1  0   24  25  3   8  17  .269  .749
Prorated   LA   4.50   1  1   0  0  0    8   8  1   3   5  .269  .749
Actual     LA   4.91   2  0   0  1  0    7  10  1   2   1  .323  .848

Prorated   Det  4.50  33 33   8  8  0  196 204 25  65 139  .269  .749
Actual     Det  4.60  31 31  14 12  0  192 209 24  70 119  .276  .781

Prorated   Tot  4.50  34 34   8  8  0  204 212 25  68 144  .269  .749
Actual     Tot  4.61  33 31  14 13  0  199 219 25  72 120  .278  .783

For years a somewhat underrated hurler, Mlicki broke through in Detroit after being dumped by the supposedly pitching-rich Dodgers in April. Dave was rewarded with a nice multi-year deal after '99 and is expected to be the Tigers' ace in their first few years in Comerica Park. The club had better score a lot of runs for him, though, as most aces don't allow 219 hits in 199 IP and post a 4.61 ERA. In his favor, however, is the fact that he pitched better in the second half (3.91 ERA, 100 H in 99 IP) than in the first (5.31 ERA).

Willie Blair, starter/long reliever, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  5.28  32 32   9 12  0  206 226 38  70 109  .280  .821
Prorated   Det  5.28  22 22   6  8  0  139 152 26  47  73  .280  .821
Actual     Det  6.85  39 16   3 11  0  134 169 29  44  82  .308  .909

Blair has gone 8-27 since his career year in '97 with the Tigers when he posted a deceptive 16-8 record. Arizona imprudently signed him to a lucrative three-year deal after that aberration, and he's been hammered regularly in Phoenix, New York, and again in Detroit since. Willie started 1999 in the rotation but was exiled to middle relief for just cause.

Seth Greisinger, starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  5.25  27 27   8 10  0  159 177 23  61  82  .284  .805

After making 21 starts in 1998, Greisinger was expected to take his place in the Detroit rotation in 1999. Instead, he spent the whole season on the DL with a right elbow injury. He had "Tommy John" surgery in mid-June, so he will probably need all of next year to rehab his elbow while trying to regain his velocity.

Jeff Weaver, starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Actual     Det  5.55  30 29   9 12  0  164 176 27  56 114  .278  .828

A first-round pick in 1998 who was promoted to the big leagues after only six pro games, Weaver hit a lot of highs and too many lows last year. After bursting upon the scene with a one-hit start in five innings in his ML debut, Jeff quickly wowed the fans while frustrating opposing hitters. Unfortunately, the league caught up with the rookie righty with a vengeance in the second half. His monthly ERAs in '99, starting in April and ending in September-October, showed an ugly progression: 2.45, 3.19, 4.41, 8.79, 6.45, 8.28.

A reasonable question to ask is why Detroit didn't send Weaver to AAA in the second half rather than let him get pounded almost every time he took the mound. In the long run, he's got great potential, but it's a toss-up whether he can realize it this soon.

Dave Borkowski, starter, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Actual     Det  6.10  17 12   2  6  0   77  86 10  40  50  .283  .816

Borkowski graduated from AA in 1998 to AAA and the majors in 1999. An overachiever, he clearly wasn't ready for The Show when promoted at midseason. He has some potential, but he could easily need more seasoning at AAA.

Nelson Cruz, swing man, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  6.61   3  3   1  1  0   16  23  4   7  12  .338 1.006
Prorated   Det  6.61  11 11   4  4  0   62  87 15  26  45  .338 1.006
Actual     Det  5.67  29  6   2  5  0   67  74 11  23  46  .281  .801

Cruz is a veteran minor leaguer who spent the last two thirds of the '99 season with Detroit after ten impressive starts in AAA Toledo. He was out of baseball for three full years after being released by Montreal in spring training, 1992. Either he is a late bloomer or, more likely, he was able to fool AAA hitters by virtue of his relatively advanced age.

C. J. Nitkowski, middle reliever, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  5.12  40  0   3  4  0   65  76  8  32  52  .293  .835
Prorated   Det  5.12  47  0   3  5  0   76  88  9  37  60  .293  .835
Actual     Det  4.30  68  7   4  5  0   82  63 11  45  66  .213  .677

Once considered a top prospect, mostly because he was a college star who ended up as a first-round draft pick by a desperate team, Nitkowski has settled into a comfortable role as a middle reliever. To be sure, he's better than the standard-issue designated bullpen lefty and was very effective in seven late-season starts for Detroit (3.86 ERA, two homers and 29 hits in 37.1 innings).

Nitkowski was equally effective against righties last year, a departure from his previous pattern. After two good years, he looks like he's found his level and his niche. He's not so good that he can't relapse into his previous level, but his age and track record indicate he should be productive for several years at a stable level of performance.

Masao Kida, middle reliever, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  5.59   5  5   2  2  0   29  35  4  11  19  .302  .847
Prorated   Det  5.59  11 11   4  4  0   65  79  9  25  43  .302  .847
Actual     Det  6.26  49  0   1  0  1   65  73  6  30  50  .289  .810

Think major league teams don't play follow-the-leader? Kida is proof that they do, spending his first undistinguished year in the majors with Detroit after ten years in the majors in Japan. Detroit signed him with some fanfare in November 1998 as big-league teams were rushing to ink Pacific Rim pitchers before someone else locked them up. The Detroit Postseason Media Guide says that he is "the eighth Japanese citizen with pro experience in Japan to play for a major league team." Whew!

Kida is signed through 2001 and will get many more opportunities. Although he should improve somewhat with experience, there isn't much of an upside. He wasn't that good over there; at his age, he isn't going to make an impact over here. Curiously, in the second year of his pro career, Masao spent all of 1988 in the Florida State League as part of a goodwill player exchange with the Yomiuri Giants.

Matt Anderson, middle reliever , age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  3.27  70  0   5  2  7   72  60  5  45  71  .228  .695
Prorated   Det  3.27  40  0   3  1  4   41  34  3  26  41  .228  .695
Actual     Det  5.68  37  0   2  1  0   38  33  8  35  32  .232  .827

After 42 games as a rookie in '98, when he went 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA and fanned a hitter per inning, Matt slid backward last year. Despite his 100 mph fastball, Anderson was unable to find the plate and spent the middle of the season in AAA Toledo looking for it. Detroit management is quite unhappy with his inability to date to learn how to pitch, but he's still got closer-of-the-future stamped all over his passport. The fact that opposing ML hitters batted a meek .232 against him confirms that the biggest problem the talented young righty faces is himself.

Bryce Florie, middle reliever, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  4.20  27 27   8  8  0  163 162 15  70 118  .263  .745
Prorated   Det  4.20   9  9   3  3  0   54  54  5  23  39  .263  .745
Actual     Det  4.56  27  3   2  1  0   51  61  6  20  40  .292  .776

Prorated   Bos  4.20   5  5   2  2  0   31  31  3  13  23  .263  .745
Actual     Bos  4.80  14  2   2  0  0   30  33  2  15  25  .282  .733

Prorated   Tot  4.20  14 14   4  4  0   85  85  8  37  62  .263  .745
Actual     Tot  4.65  41  5   4  1  0   81  94  8  35  65  .288  .761

Florie is a perfectly serviceable middle reliever and spot starter. He was dealt to Boston in a July 31 trading deadline deal for young minor league lefty Mike Maroth, who ended the year in AA. Maroth was a third-round pick in the '98 draft.

Francisco Cordero, reliever, age 21

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Actual     Det  3.32  20  0   2  2  0   19  19  2  18  19  .284  .878

Cordero throws extremely hard and is a bona fide potential ML closer. He was spectacular in AA Jacksonville in '99, saving 27 games in 47 appearances while fanning 58 in 52.1 innings and posting a 1.38 ERA, earning Howe Sportsdata's Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year honors.

Francisco was considered a comer after his superb performance in the Midwest League in '97, but he missed most of '98 with a stress fracture in his right elbow. There are good analysts around who believe that Detroit would have been better off sending closer-of-the-future Matt Anderson to Texas and keeping Cordero instead.

Will Brunson, reliever, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  6.06  25  0   1  1  0   16  21  3   8  13  .318  .945
Prorated   Det  6.06  19  0   1  1  0   13  16  2   6  10  .318  .945
Actual     Det  6.00  17  0   1  0  0   12  18  3   6   9  .367 1.054

Brunson spent most of 1999 in AAA Toledo, but spent two months in Detroit starting in late May. Detroit thought so little of him that he wasn't even given a second look in September.

Sean Runyan, reliever, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  3.78  70  0   3  2  1   48  46  6  25  38  .256  .760
Prorated   Det  3.78  15  0   1  0  0   10  10  1   5   8  .256  .760
Actual     Det  3.38  12  0   0  1  0   11   9  2   3   6  .237  .717

After leading the AL in appearances in 1998 with 88, Runyan's left shoulder broke down last year. He went on the DL in early May, then underwent arthroscopic surgery in July.

Felipe Lira, reliever, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  5.56  23  0   2  3  0   45  54  7  19  28  .297  .847
Prorated   Det  5.56   2  0   0  0  0    4   5  1   2   3  .297  .847
Actual     Det 10.80   2  0   0  0  0    3   7  2   2   3  .389 1.228

Lira has always been an enigma. He had great numbers in the minors at a very young age, but big league hitters have hit him early and often throughout his career. Essentially, he has enough stuff and moxie to earn repeated trials, but not enough stuff to fool disciplined ML hitters. He spent most of 1999 in AAA Toledo.

Doug Brocail, setup man, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  3.49  53  0   4  2  0   57  54  6  20  45  .254  .715
Prorated   Det  3.49  72  0   5  3  0   77  74  8  27  61  .254  .715
Actual     Det  2.52  70  0   4  4  2   82  60  7  25  78  .206  .586

Brocail has become a very good setup pitcher in his 30s and had his best year in 1999. He's got enough stuff to continue at this level, but he's not going to graduate to closing except in an emergency.

Todd Jones, closer, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  3.33  70  0   4  6 31   73  68  7  37  63  .250  .710
Prorated   Det  3.33  64  0   4  5 28   67  62  6  34  57  .250  .710
Actual     Det  3.80  65  0   4  4 30   66  64  7  35  64  .259  .753

Jones is a durable and decent big-league closer, but far from a superior one. Detroit would like nothing better than to have Matt Anderson mature into the closer's role and to cash in by trading Jones during one of his hot streaks for something else the team really needs.

Todd was on the mound for the last out at Tiger Stadium, fanning the Royals' Carlos Beltran on September 27 to end 88 years of baseball at the storied ballpark.

Outlook

With a very expensive -- both in terms of salary and the talent needed to acquire him -- two-time AL MVP in the middle of their lineup, the Tigers will be expected to be more than respectable this year. Overtaking Cleveland is a dream, of course, but anything less than a good, exciting team with strong indications for future improvement will likely cost Smith his job.

With a brand-new ballpark generating tons of extra revenue for the franchise in 2000 and beyond, Detroit will no longer have the excuse it used for most of the previous decade: that it is a struggling small-market team which can't compete with the big spenders in New York and elsewhere. Texas was plenty happy to get rid of Gonzo, who wore out his welcome there with his prima donna attitude and behavior in the past year.

A banner year from Gonzalez would go a long way toward bringing Detroit back into contention for the Wild Card. But it won't solve the team's on-base shortage, never mind its other problems.

Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All right reserved.