This article takes a look at how the Kansas City Royals did
in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an
overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 780 856
Runs allowed 849 921
Run Margin -69 -65
Wins 74 64
Pythagorean wins 74 75
Placement 3rd 4th
Sometimes, the final standings can be a little deceiving. In
1998, the Royals won 72 games and finished third in the division.
But they were second-last in the AL in both runs scored and runs
allowed, and they were outscored by 185 runs, easily the worst
differential in the league. Not surprisingly, they also lost far
more games (41) by five or more runs than any other team in baseball.
If it wasn't for a 17-16 record on one-run games, Kansas City
would have finished in the basement.
Then Jose Offerman and Dean Palmer, their two best offensive
players, left as free agents, and there were widespread reports
that they needed to cut payroll even further and would therefore
trade their best pitcher, Kevin Appier, before the season. So
there didn't seem to be a lot of reason to be optimistic about
1999. Or did there?
Our pre-season simulations projected a significant improvement
in performance. The biggest reason was the injection into the
offense of three young players -- Carlos Beltran, Carlos Febles,
and Jeremy Giambi -- who were coming off monster seasons in the
minor leagues. Another was the return of Appier, and since he
hadn't yet been traded when our projections were done in March,
we were forced to assume that he would be with the team all year.
(The only alternative was to guess where he'd go and what the
Royals would get in return.) And the defense looked to improve
with the move of Johnny Damon from CF to LF to make room for Beltran,
the addition of Rey Sanchez at SS, and upgrades at 3B (Randa for
Palmer) and 2B (Febles for Offerman).
And so it appeared that Kansas City would improve their run
differential from -185 to - 69, increase their win total from
72 to 74, and maintain their hold on third place. In reality,
they scored 142 more runs than the year before and dramatically
improved their run differential (to -65). But the Royals lost
ground in the standings anyway, nearly finishing last in baseball's
weakest division, because their bullpen was horrible (30 blown
saves in 59 chances) and the team was only 11-32 in one-run games.
Even the worst teams are usually close to .500 in these one-run
games, and Kansas City would have been challenging the White Sox
for second place if they'd been able to do the same.
Key Position Players
The Royals were projected to score 66 more runs than the year
before despite the loss of Offerman and Palmer, because Beltran,
Febles and Giambi were expected to play every day and to make
solid contributions. Beltran fulfilled this promise and then some
by taking the AL Rookie of the Year award. Febles and Giambi contributed
as well, though both battled injuries and weren't able to deliver
all that they seemed capable of.
But several others came through in a big way. Mike Sweeney
had a breakout season (.322, 22 HR, 100+ runs and RBI) after being
moved out from behind the plate. Jermaine Dye had a big year in
RF, hitting .294 with 27 homers and 119 RBI, and creating 48 more
runs than expected. At 3B, Joe Randa created more runs than Dean
Palmer did with the Tigers. Rey Sanchez played terrific defense
at shortstop, as expected, and also had his best year at the plate.
Johnny Damon continued to improve. And Mark Quinn added some serious
pop after being called up in September.
The result was a jump from 13th to 7th in the league in scoring,
thanks to a 19-point leap in team batting average, a 24-point
increase in on-base percentage, and a 34-point surge in slugging
percentage.
Chad Kreuter, c, age 34 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 362 84 14 2 4 37 40 3 43 1 82 1 1 .232 .318 .315 .633 37
Prorated KC 321 74 12 1 3 32 35 2 38 0 72 0 0 .231 .316 .302 .618 32
Actual KC 324 73 15 0 5 31 35 6 34 1 65 0 0 .225 .309 .318 .627 30
Kreuter's value supposedly lies in his defensive skills and
the ability to handle a pitching staff, but the staff was last
in the AL and actually had a slightly higher ERA when Kreuter
was catching. He had another typically weak season at the plate,
and won't be back next year.
Tim Spehr, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 66 10 2 0 1 6 6 2 7 0 19 0 1 .152 .253 .227 .481 4
Prorated KC 164 24 4 0 2 14 14 4 17 0 47 0 2 .146 .243 .207 .451 9
Actual KC 155 32 7 0 9 26 26 6 22 0 47 1 0 .206 .324 .426 .750 24
Spehr's career average is .198, which is the main reason why
he's never been given more than 100 atbats in a season prior to
this year. But he now has a very respectable 67 walks and 19 homers
in 556 career atbats, so he does make a contribution at the plate.
Nevertheless, he's a free agent and won't be back with KC next
year.
Sal Fasano, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 67 14 3 0 2 7 8 3 4 0 19 0 0 .209 .280 .343 .623 7
Prorated KC 67 14 3 0 2 7 8 3 4 0 19 0 0 .209 .280 .343 .623 7
Actual KC 60 14 2 0 5 11 16 7 7 0 17 0 1 .233 .373 .517 .890 12
Fasano's career offensive numbers aren't much different from
Spehr's, but Fasano is quite a bit younger and is coming off a
very nice half-season in AAA (.275 average, .415 on-base percentage,
and 21 homers in only 280 atbats), so word is he's been penciled
in as the starting catcher for 2000. There's nothing in his minor-league
record that suggests he'll hit for average, but if his new-found
batting eye is for real, he could be a Gene Tenace type who draws
a lot of walks and pops enough homers to be a decent offensive
player.
Jeff King, 1b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 566 135 25 1 26 89 106 2 66 2 92 13 3 .239 .315 .424 .739 79
Prorated KC 79 19 3 0 3 12 14 0 9 0 12 1 0 .241 .315 .392 .707 10
Actual KC 72 17 2 0 3 14 11 3 15 1 10 2 0 .236 .385 .389 .774 13
King got off to a very slow start as he battled a chronic back
problem, then retired unexpectedly in May. He could have hung
on for the rest of the year, collecting the rest of his big salary
and taking valuable playing time away from some of the youngsters.
But he chose to walk away from the money, and I applaud him for
that.
Mike Sweeney, 1b/dh/c, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 194 48 11 0 6 24 27 3 17 0 27 1 2 .247 .315 .397 .712 24
Prorated KC 574 142 32 0 17 71 80 8 50 0 80 2 5 .247 .314 .392 .706 69
Actual KC 575 185 44 2 22 101 102 10 54 0 48 6 1 .322 .387 .520 .907 113
After several years of trying to make it as a catcher, Sweeney
was used at DH and 1B this year, and for the first time put up
numbers resembling the best of his minor-league seasons. Those
seasons were at the lower levels, however, so it was anything
but clear that he had the ability to do this in the majors. I'll
be surprised if the team asks him to don the tools of ignorance
again, except in an emergency.
Larry Sutton, 1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 138 33 7 0 3 15 19 1 14 1 22 1 1 .239 .310 .355 .665 16
Prorated KC 104 24 5 0 2 11 14 0 10 0 16 0 0 .231 .296 .337 .632 11
Actual KC 102 23 6 0 2 14 15 0 13 0 17 1 0 .225 .308 .343 .651 11
When King was injury, and again after he retired, Sutton was
given a crack at the 1B job. His production was exactly as projected,
but not nearly enough to keep the job, and he's now a free agent.
Scott Leius, 1b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 72 17 2 0 3 8 10 0 3 0 8 0 1 .236 .267 .389 .656 6
Prorated KC 78 18 2 0 3 8 10 0 3 0 8 0 1 .231 .259 .372 .631 6
Actual KC 74 15 1 0 1 8 10 1 4 0 8 1 0 .203 .244 .257 .501 5
His season ended on the fourth of July when he went on the
DL with a torn rotator cuff. He's now a free agent, and even if
he gets his shoulder back to full strength, this could be the
end of the line for him.
Carlos Febles, 2b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 492 139 26 14 7 88 40 10 79 1 90 39 14 .283 .390 .435 .825 92
Prorated KC 437 123 23 12 6 78 35 8 70 0 80 34 12 .281 .389 .430 .819 80
Actual KC 453 116 22 9 10 71 53 9 47 0 91 20 4 .256 .336 .411 .747 63
Febles hit .318 with an on-base percentage near .400 through
the end of May. He strained his shoulder in early June, and coincidence
or not, hit only .219 from that point on. The biggest blow was
a dislocated pinky that put him on the DL for 3-1/2 weeks. His
average was only .156 after his return. Still, he showed a lot
for a young middle infielder, and I would expect him to have a
better 2000.
Jed Hansen, 2b/ss/3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 68 16 3 1 1 8 7 0 5 0 18 2 1 .235 .284 .353 .637 7
Prorated KC 85 20 3 1 1 10 8 0 6 0 22 2 1 .235 .283 .329 .612 8
Actual KC 79 16 1 0 3 16 5 0 10 0 32 0 1 .203 .289 .329 .618 8
Wasn't projected to hit much, and didn't. His stats at AAA
Omaha were reasonably good in 1997-98, but that's a good hitter's
park, so they don't translate well to the big leagues. He'll be
with the Padres in 2000.
Joe Randa, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 588 159 30 6 9 70 69 7 50 2 89 10 6 .270 .332 .388 .720 76
Prorated KC 619 167 31 6 9 73 72 7 52 2 93 10 6 .270 .331 .383 .714 79
Actual KC 628 197 36 8 16 92 84 3 50 4 80 5 4 .314 .363 .473 .836 106
This was his best year, but not by a whole lot. Take away about
four homers and you'd have his 1996 and 1997 seasons. Still, it
was a very nice bounce from a disappointing 1998 campaign that
saw him hit only .254 with minimal power. It's not likely he'll
ever do much better than this, but this was good enough for him
to sneak into the top ten in OPS among major league 3Bs.
Rey Sanchez, ss, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 531 140 25 2 3 65 43 5 28 3 73 2 3 .264 .305 .335 .640 52
Prorated KC 479 126 22 1 2 58 38 4 25 2 65 1 2 .263 .304 .326 .630 45
Actual KC 479 141 18 6 2 66 56 4 22 2 48 11 5 .294 .329 .370 .698 56
Our defensive studies have consistently shown that Sanchez
is one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstop
of the past several years. Like Ozzie Smith, Sanchez has absolutely
no power but has figured out how to get his batting average up
into the .280s in recent years. But Smith drew over 1000 walks
in his career, while Sanchez hardly ever takes a free pass. So
he's always struggled to keep a regular job despite his defensive
prowess. KC just signed him to a two-year contract, so it looks
as if he'll finally have a regular job.
Ray Holbert, ss/2b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 69 16 3 1 0 8 6 0 5 0 18 2 1 .232 .284 .304 .588 6
Prorated KC 105 24 4 1 0 12 9 0 7 0 27 3 1 .229 .277 .286 .563 9
Actual KC 100 28 3 0 0 14 5 0 8 0 20 7 4 .280 .330 .310 .640 10
Don't get too carried away by that .280 batting average. Holbert
was projected for almost no power and still managed to come up
short. So he scratched out five extra singles in a hundred atbats.
Big deal. His career average is still only .222 and he's earned
only 198 atbats through age 29. He might hang on for another year
or two as a utility player.
Steve Scarsone, ss/1b/2b/3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 68 15 3 0 3 7 7 1 6 0 20 0 0 .221 .293 .397 .690 8
Prorated KC 71 15 3 0 3 7 7 1 6 0 21 0 0 .211 .282 .380 .662 8
Actual KC 68 14 5 0 0 2 6 0 9 0 24 1 0 .206 .295 .279 .574 7
Scarsone's average was under .220 for the third straight year,
and he was released in September.
Johnny Damon, lf/cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 599 162 25 6 13 91 61 4 50 3 84 24 11 .270 .329 .397 .727 82
Prorated KC 598 161 24 5 12 90 60 3 49 2 83 23 10 .269 .327 .386 .713 79
Actual KC 583 179 39 9 14 101 77 3 67 5 50 36 6 .307 .379 .477 .856 111
Damon went from budding superstar to disappointment before
his 24th birthday, but he's slowly becoming a solid offensive
player. His batting average, walks and power have risen every
single year, and he's young enough to continue improving. A former
center fielder who switched to left this year, he was among the
leaders in our defensive rankings at his new position.
Scott Pose, ph/lf/dh, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 85 21 3 1 0 13 7 1 8 0 12 6 2 .247 .319 .306 .625 9
Prorated KC 143 35 5 1 0 21 11 1 13 0 20 10 3 .245 .312 .294 .606 14
Actual KC 137 39 3 0 0 27 12 0 21 1 22 6 2 .285 .377 .307 .684 18
You've got to admire his dedication to the game. At age 26,
he couldn't land a regular job with the expansion Marlins. After
three more years in AAA, he was a fifth outfielder with the Yankees
for part of 1997. Then he found himself back in the minors in
1998, 31 years old, and with a grand total of 128 major-league
atbats under his belt. But he'd been hitting pretty well in AAA
the past two years -- around .300 with an on-base percentage in
the high .300s, but no power -- and that earned him another shot.
Mark Quinn, lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual KC 60 20 4 1 6 11 18 1 4 0 11 1 0 .333 .385 .733 1.118 17
We goofed when we failed to project any major-league playing
time for this guy back in the spring. He's hit for average and
power at every stop in the minors, and was coming off a AA season
in which he batted .349 and slugged .581. In 1999, he earned MVP
honors in the Pacific Coast League, and he just kept on hitting
after a September call-up.
Carlos Beltran, cf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 652 175 35 7 18 95 104 6 54 6 124 21 7 .268 .328 .426 .754 90
Prorated KC 652 175 35 7 18 95 104 6 54 6 124 21 7 .268 .328 .426 .754 90
Actual KC 663 194 27 7 22 112 108 4 46 2 123 27 8 .293 .337 .454 .791 101
Along with Giambi and Febles, Beltran was the third reason
why the Royals were projected to improve dramatically over 1998.
We had projected the other two to outhit him, but it was Beltran
who went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year award with a solid
all-around performance. In time, I think Febles will move into
the leadoff spot that Beltran occupied for most of 1999. Beltran's
better suited to the 5th or 6th spot in the order because he doesn't
get on base nearly as much as the other two.
Jermaine Dye, rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 648 156 25 0 24 79 82 3 37 2 130 7 6 .241 .282 .390 .672 66
Prorated KC 626 150 24 0 23 76 79 2 35 1 125 6 5 .240 .280 .388 .668 62
Actual KC 608 179 44 8 27 96 119 1 58 4 119 2 3 .294 .354 .526 .880 110
Dye showed a lot of promise when he debuted at age 22 with
the Braves in 1996, but he slumped in 1997-98. As a result, much
less was expected of him this year. But Dye started fast and maintained
a strong pace all season.
Jeremy Giambi, dh/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 487 145 29 1 21 82 85 7 71 8 89 7 7 .298 .390 .491 .881 96
Prorated KC 285 84 16 0 12 48 49 4 41 4 52 4 4 .295 .386 .477 .863 54
Actual KC 288 82 13 1 3 34 34 3 40 5 67 0 0 .285 .373 .368 .741 42
There's never been any question about his ability to hit. His
last four minor-league batting averages have been .336, .321,
.372 and .346. And those are the least impressive of his
averages -- his on-base percentages have been in the mid-.400s
and he's slugged well over .600 in 450 AAA atbats. There has been
a question about where he'd play, however, as he's not regarded
as a good fielder in the outfield or at first.
His first taste of the majors was delayed for a couple of months
by a nagging hamstring injury. Once activated, he came within
two hits of matching his projected batting average and on-base
percentage, but his power was nowhere to be seen. That should
develop in the next couple of years.
Key Pitchers
Although the Royals were dead last in the league in pitching,
there were some encouraging signs. The rotation pretty good, finishing
with an ERA that was only 0.11 above the league average for starting
pitchers. Kevin Appier was healthy enough to take a regular turn,
so the Royals were able to get some young arms in return when
he was dealt at the trading deadline. Jose Rosado had a very good
year, Jeff Suppan improved, and Jay Watasick finished well.
But the bullpen was a huge disappointment, posting an ERA of
5.75 (almost a run and a quarter above the league average for
relievers), the worst in baseball this side of Seattle. And you
could argue that the Seattle pen, which managed to save 40 games
in 60 tries, compared with 29 of 59 for the Royals, was actually
a little more effective.
As you read through the player comments below, you'll see several
relievers who had been respectable in recent years and who suddenly
lost the ability get anyone out. And when the bullpen woes mounted,
the club tried a bunch of other pitchers who aren't shown here,
many of them young and unproven, who posted sky-high ERAs in twenty
or so innings before being discarded.
Kevin Appier, starter, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.40 32 32 10 10 0 178 186 22 63 161 .270 .761
Prorated KC 4.40 26 26 8 8 0 142 148 18 50 129 .270 .761
Actual KC 4.87 22 22 9 9 0 140 153 18 51 78 .279 .783
Prorated Oak 4.40 13 13 4 4 0 73 76 9 26 66 .270 .761
Actual Oak 5.77 12 12 7 5 0 69 77 9 33 53 .280 .826
Prorated Tot 4.40 39 39 12 12 0 215 224 27 76 194 .270 .761
Actual Tot 5.17 34 34 16 14 0 209 230 27 84 131 .279 .798
Back in the spring, few people thought Kevin Appier would start
the season with the Royals, and even fewer thought he would still
be with them at seasons end, as the Royals were looking to dump
his salary. Many teams were said to be interested, but with Appier
having missed almost all of 1998 recovering from shoulder surgery,
nobody really knew what he was capable of.
As you can see from the stats, Appier's performance was in
line with our projections, except that 40% of his strikeouts disappeared.
That was good enough for the Oakland A's, who gave up some young
pitchers to get him at the trading deadline. He didn't pitch all
that well for the A's either, but they did get seven wins out
of him.
I'm not quite sure what to expect next year. The good news
is that he was able to throw 209 innings a year after shoulder
surgery. The bad news is that his walk-strikeout ratio deteriorated
very badly, and he's always had a funky motion that appears to
put a lot of strain on his shoulder. If I had to guess, I'd say
he'll be a little better next year, as it often takes pitchers
a couple of years to get back to full strength after surgery.
Jose Rosado, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 3.97 32 32 12 10 0 197 190 23 66 144 .254 .716
Prorated KC 3.97 34 34 13 11 0 209 201 24 70 153 .254 .716
Actual KC 3.85 33 33 10 14 0 208 197 24 72 141 .248 .703
Rosado broke into the starting rotation at age 21 and has been
getting a little better each year. Now he's the staff ace at the
tender age of 24. He's not a great pitcher yet, but there are
lots of teams that would love to have a guy with an ERA a full
run below the league average and almost 700 career innings under
his belt at this age.
Jeff Suppan, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.06 32 32 8 10 0 176 202 23 54 123 .289 .799
Prorated KC 5.06 37 37 9 12 0 203 233 27 62 142 .289 .799
Actual KC 4.53 32 32 10 12 0 209 222 28 62 103 .274 .763
I'm not completely sold on Suppan yet. I saw him make his major-league
debut with the Red Sox a couple of years back, and I was very
impressed with his poise, control, and understanding of the craft.
But he doesn't have great stuff, so he can't get away with as
many mistakes as some others can. His second half (5.42 ERA, .299
batting average and .496 slugging average allowed) was much worse
that his first, so hitters may have caught on to his style.
Jay Witasick, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.19 27 27 8 10 0 160 163 30 72 153 .265 .815
Prorated KC 5.19 28 28 8 10 0 166 170 31 75 160 .265 .815
Actual KC 5.57 32 28 9 12 0 158 191 23 83 102 .304 .847
Witasick had a couple of excellent seasons as a starting pitcher
in the low minors back in 1994-95, but was converted to a middle
relief role in 1996. He didn't have much success in that role
in the minors or in some brief callups with the A's. But he had
another good year in AAA Edmonton in 1998 after he was moved back
into the rotation.
The interesting thing about his 1999 season was the finish
-- he was 5-4 with an ERA under 4.00 in the last two months. That
could be a fluke, of course, but it could also mean that he's
turned the corner.
Blake Stein, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.64 34 4 4 6 0 81 88 14 47 68 .276 .851
Prorated Oak 5.64 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 3 .276 .851
Actual Oak 16.88 1 1 0 0 0 3 6 1 6 4 .462 1.478
Prorated KC 5.64 28 3 3 5 0 67 72 12 39 56 .276 .851
Actual KC 4.09 12 11 1 2 0 70 59 10 41 43 .230 .743
Prorated Tot 5.64 30 3 3 5 0 71 77 12 41 59 .276 .851
Actual Tot 4.56 13 12 1 2 0 73 65 11 47 47 .241 .781
One of the pitchers who came over from Oakland in the Appier
deal, Stein began to deliver on his promise after the Royals put
him in the rotation. He's had some minor-league seasons with terrific
ratios of hits and strikeouts to innings, so the potential is
there. If he can figure out how to get the ball over the plate
consistently, he could quickly turn into a very good pitcher.
Mac Suzuki, swing man, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 6.83 30 0 3 4 0 57 67 11 37 39 .295 .912
Prorated Sea 6.83 23 0 2 3 0 43 51 8 28 30 .295 .912
Actual Sea 9.43 16 4 0 2 0 42 47 7 34 32 .283 .917
Prorated KC 6.83 34 0 3 4 0 64 75 12 42 44 .295 .912
Actual KC 5.16 22 9 2 3 0 68 77 9 30 36 .287 .813
Prorated Tot 6.83 57 0 6 8 0 107 127 21 70 74 .295 .912
Actual Tot 6.79 38 13 2 5 0 110 124 16 64 68 .286 .854
When the Mariners signed Suzuki out of Japan a few years ago,
there was much hoopla from the Japanese and domestic press. But
he hasn't yet had much success at any level. He was projected
to walk way too many hitters and to get hit pretty hard when he
threw strikes, and that's just about what happened. The only good
news is that he wasn't quite as bad with KC as he was in Seattle.
Chris Fussell, swing man, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 7.00 4 4 1 1 0 18 23 3 12 14 .315 .934
Prorated KC 7.00 12 12 3 3 0 54 69 9 36 42 .315 .934
Actual KC 7.39 17 8 0 5 2 56 72 9 36 37 .329 .935
He wasn't ready for the majors this year, but he's had moderate
to very good success throughout his minor-league career, so I
expect him to make a contribution in the next few years. After
Fussell was hit very hard in a month-long stint in the rotation
from mid-May to mid-June, he was sent down to AAA. He was used
out of the pen after he was recalled in August, and was a little
better in that role.
Dan Reichert, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual KC 9.08 8 8 2 2 0 37 48 2 32 20 .327 .872
It sure looks as if the Royals rushed this youngster, but you
can hardly blame them for taking a shot. He was 9-2 in AAA Omaha,
having given up only 92 hits and striking out 123 in 111 innings.
And that was in a good hitters' park. He should be a good one
in the not-too-distant future.
Brian Barber, swing man, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.45 32 32 8 13 0 165 195 35 80 110 .293 .889
Prorated KC 6.45 4 4 1 2 0 20 24 4 10 14 .293 .889
Actual KC 9.64 8 3 1 3 1 19 31 6 10 7 .383 1.173
Barber got a shot at the rotation in 1999 on the strength of
a pretty good 1998 season at AAA Omaha (8-4, 3.75). But he failed
again in his fourth try at the big-league level, and spent most
of the year back in AAA, where he went 9-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He's
a former first-round draft pick, so he'll get more chances, but
they won't be in Kansas City. He's with the Indians now.
Jose Santiago, long reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.23 30 0 1 3 0 39 53 5 16 15 .329 .888
Prorated KC 6.23 34 0 1 3 0 44 60 6 18 17 .329 .888
Actual KC 3.42 34 0 3 4 2 47 46 7 14 15 .251 .700
Santiago has never been one to strike out a lot of hitters,
even in the low minors, so I wonder whether he can continue to
get big-league hitters out. Even in his two best minor-league
seasons, one in A ball and one at AA, he allowed more than a hit
per inning.
Don Wengert, long reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.34 23 0 1 3 0 38 48 6 14 23 .310 .869
Prorated KC 6.34 15 0 1 2 0 26 32 4 9 15 .310 .869
Actual KC 9.25 11 1 0 1 0 24 41 6 5 10 .376 1.002
May have run out of chances. He was released by the Royals
after this dismal performance, and now has a career ERA of 5.74.
Alvin Morman, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.92 53 0 2 3 0 52 64 10 25 42 .306 .901
Prorated KC 5.92 55 0 2 3 0 53 66 10 26 43 .306 .901
Actual KC 4.05 49 0 2 4 1 53 66 6 23 31 .307 .839
That opposition batting average is ugly, but Morman was able
to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park. He's a lefty who
wasn't all that good against left-handed batters, but lefties
tend to get a lot of chances these days, so he may have a few
years left.
Brad Rigby, middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.72 27 27 6 11 0 146 179 21 47 72 .304 .840
Prorated Oak 5.72 12 12 3 5 0 63 77 9 20 31 .304 .840
Actual Oak 4.33 29 0 3 4 0 62 69 5 26 26 .284 .777
Prorated KC 5.72 4 4 1 2 0 23 29 3 8 12 .304 .840
Actual KC 7.17 20 0 1 2 0 21 33 6 5 10 .351 .963
Prorated Tot 5.72 16 16 4 6 0 86 106 12 28 42 .304 .840
Actual Tot 5.06 49 0 4 6 0 84 102 11 31 36 .303 .828
Once a well-regarded prospect, Rigby's stock has slipped in
recent years. He had some success as a starter in A ball and at
AA, but he's been less impressive at the higher levels. He was
converted to a reliever in 1999 but didn't show all that much,
especially after arriving from Oakland.
Scott Service, middle reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.03 70 0 6 4 2 96 96 11 38 114 .261 .762
Prorated KC 4.03 59 0 5 3 2 80 80 9 32 96 .261 .762
Actual KC 6.09 68 0 5 5 8 75 87 13 42 68 .294 .886
After a very good 1998 season -- 3.48, 70 hits allowed in 83
innings, and a K:BB ratio of almost 3:1 -- Service was pounded
by left-handed batters this past year (.339 average, .627 slugging).
Matt Whisenant, middle reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.77 70 0 4 4 1 66 75 5 49 54 .291 .812
Prorated KC 4.77 41 0 2 2 1 39 44 3 29 32 .291 .812
Actual KC 6.35 48 0 4 4 1 40 40 4 26 27 .267 .799
Prorated SD 4.77 13 0 1 1 0 13 14 1 9 10 .291 .812
Actual SD 3.68 19 0 0 1 0 15 10 0 10 10 .200 .573
Prorated Tot 4.77 54 0 3 3 1 51 58 4 38 42 .291 .812
Actual Tot 5.63 67 0 4 5 1 54 50 4 36 37 .250 .743
Whisenant's stats weren't nearly as bad as his ERA suggests,
but he has always walked too many hitters, and he was one of several
Royals relievers who were released in August.
Tim Byrdak, middle reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual KC 7.66 33 0 0 3 1 25 32 5 20 17 .308 .895
Byrdak's a lefty, which means that his number #1 job is to
get lefties out, and he did that very well, allowing only a .212
batting average with 6 walks in 52 atbats. But right-handers pounded
him to the tune of a .404 batting average and a .537 on-base percentage.
He's been terrific at AAA the past two years, so if he can come
up with a way to work the right-handed batters, Byrdak will be
able to expand his role.
Terry Mathews, middle reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.61 13 0 1 1 0 16 22 4 8 12 .324 .978
Prorated KC 6.61 29 0 2 2 0 37 49 9 18 27 .324 .978
Actual KC 4.38 24 1 2 1 1 39 44 4 17 19 .289 .807
After posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his first four seaons,
Mathews has been above that mark ever since. Even though he was
one of the few Royals relievers to get some people out last year,
he was released in August to make way for younger players.
Jeff Montgomery, closer, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 3.91 70 0 3 6 27 74 75 12 26 68 .265 .774
Prorated KC 3.91 53 0 2 5 20 55 56 9 20 51 .265 .774
Actual KC 6.84 49 0 1 4 12 51 72 7 21 27 .343 .919
After a long and mostly successful career as the Royals closer,
Montgomery decided to call it quits after the season. Through
1993, his ERAs were consistently below 3.00, but he's averaged
4.44 over the past six years, and his save percentages have been
dropping to unacceptable levels. He retires with 304 career saves.
Not bad.
Outlook
On the plus side, this is a very young team, and should continue
to be an offensive force even if some players who had career years
in 1999 slip back toward their normal levels. Febles and Giambi
should contribute more next year, and if Giambi can't do that,
Mark Quinn looks like he's ready, assuming he recovers from a
shoulder injury suffered in winter ball.
On the minus side, it's not nearly as clear that the young
pitchers are ready to break through like the hitters did in 1999.
Barring any major off-season acquisitions, the mound corps will
enter 2000 with 25-year-old Jose Rosado as the staff ace and no
veteran presence anywhere in sight. Jerry Spradlin should help
the bullpen a little, but it needs more help.
There is a precedent for teams with poor records in one-run
games to bounce back the next year. Every team since 1996 that
has been at least eight games under .500 in these contests has
improved the following season:
Record Following
1996 Tigers 12-21 17-19
Royals 14-26 20-29
Cubs 21-34 24-26
Giants 17-29 23-17
1997 Rangers 18-29 19-17
1998 Mariners 10-20 20-23
Reds 16-26 21-24
Pirates 19-30 20-22
So it's quite reasonable to expect that KC's overall win-loss
record will improve next year. But they need to add ten wins just
to get back to the 74-88 record their run differential normally
produces. The offense isn't likely to challenge Cleveland or Seattle
for the league lead in scoring, so if this club is to make the
jump to a .500 record, the young pitchers have to find a way to
move from last in the league in team ERA to the middle of the
pack. It's possible, but my guess is that they need to add talent
from outside the organization or be prepared to wait another year
for their youngsters to develop.
Projections and text: Copyright © 1999.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
