This article takes a look at how the Minnesota Twins did in
the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 713 686
Runs allowed 933 845
Run Margin -220 -161
Wins 60 64
Pythagorean wins 60 63
Placement 5th 5th
The Twins didn't look as if they had much to look forward to
from a win standpoint in 1999. It became obvious that the Twins
would rely primarily on young, unproven players as the core of
both their batting order and pitching staff. Hometown hero Paul
Molitor retired after the 1998 season and another local favorite,
Terry Steinbach, was hinting that he might do the same. The only
veteran presence was in the bullpen and the only player who could
be considered a current star was Brad Radke.
Despite some surprises, in the end things worked out as they
appeared they would. Closer Rick Aguilera was dealt early in the
season to the Cubs. Setup man Mike Trombley became the interim
closer and then chose to take the closer opening in Baltimore
after the season ended. Steinbach waited to the end of the season
to retire. Radke continued to lead the staff but his status as
a bright star was tarnished by a subpar performance. The bullpen,
led by veterans Bob Wells and Hector Carrasco, performed admirably.
Of the young players, a few showed that they may be around
for awhile. Corie Koskie and Jacque Jones made an impact at the
plate and in the field. Eric Milton threw a no-hitter and established
himself as a potential All-Star. Joe Mays came out of nowhere
to become a solid number three starter.
The Twins hitting was even worse than expected, and those expectations
were far from lofty. Ron Coomer led the team with 16 homers. Minnesota
was last in the league in slugging and had only one more walk
than the league-worst White Sox.
If there is one thing that is consistent with Tom Kelly-managed
teams is that they are fundamentally sound. And despite an incredibly
young and inexperienced team, the Twins committed the third fewest
errors in the major leagues. And although the pitching staff had
the worst slugging percentage allowed in the league, the defense
and a staff of control pitchers which allowed the second fewest
walks in the American League kept the ERA in the middle of the
pack.
Key Position Players
Having a team with six everyday players who are classified
as rookies is a tough way to win ballgames. And the few veterans
in the lineup didn't help all that much, either, as the seasons
turned in by Terry Steinbach, Todd Walker, and Marty Cordova were
OK but nothing special.
Corey Koskie led the team in hitting, veteran infielder Ron
Coomer led the team in home runs, and the outfield has some young
players with potential in Torii Hunter, Chad Allen, and Jacque
Jones. Matt Lawton never returned to his standard of play after
being hit in the face by a pitch. Rookie first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz
struggled at the plate.
Terry Steinbach, c, age 37 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 502 121 29 2 18 61 67 4 43 2 111 1 2 .241 .304 .414 .719 60
Prorated Min 345 83 19 1 12 41 46 2 29 1 76 0 1 .241 .302 .406 .707 40
Actual Min 338 96 16 4 4 35 42 2 38 1 54 2 2 .284 .358 .391 .748 47
After playing in the fewest games since his rookie year in
1986, the longtime catcher made the decision to retire after the
season.
Javier Valentin, c, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 95 20 4 0 2 8 11 0 5 0 16 0 0 .211 .248 .316 .563 7
Prorated Min 230 48 9 0 4 19 26 0 12 0 38 0 0 .209 .246 .300 .546 16
Actual Min 218 54 12 1 5 22 28 1 22 0 39 0 0 .248 .313 .381 .694 28
A strong-armed catcher who has shown improvement in his ability
to hit major league pitching. The switch-hitter batted over .300
against lefties this year but has shown more power from the left
side. He'll be the starting catcher until Matt LeCroy is ready.
A.J. Pierzynski, c, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 71 15 2 0 1 8 7 0 2 1 8 0 0 .211 .230 .282 .511 5
Prorated Min 22 4 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 .182 .182 .182 .364 1
Actual Min 22 6 2 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 4 0 0 .273 .333 .364 .697 3
Pierzynski is a notch better than Valentin, both offensively
and defensively, and may find himself as prospect Matt LeCroy's
backup in a couple of years. In 2000, he will likely platoon with
Valentin.
Ron Coomer, 1b/3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 618 169 29 1 17 67 89 0 23 3 89 3 2 .273 .296 .406 .702 69
Prorated Min 477 130 22 0 13 51 68 0 17 2 68 2 1 .273 .295 .400 .695 52
Actual Min 467 123 25 1 16 53 65 1 30 1 69 2 1 .263 .307 .424 .731 57
The veteran Coomer began the 1999 season as the third baseman
but moved to first when rookie Doug Mientkiewicz failed to hit
well enough to keep the position. Coomer has been showing improvement
at an age when most players begin to decline. His strike zone
judgement has improved every year since he's been in the majors
and he continues to improve his power numbers also. With Steinbach
gone, he may be the only position player over 30 on the team and
will be counted on for his veteran leadership.
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 562 139 40 0 16 92 80 5 88 5 61 15 5 .247 .352 .404 .755 86
Prorated Min 321 79 22 0 9 52 45 2 50 2 34 8 2 .246 .349 .399 .748 48
Actual Min 327 75 21 3 2 34 32 4 43 3 51 1 1 .229 .324 .330 .655 35
A defensive whiz, the Twins thought they could make him their
everyday first baseman. He was coming off a monster season at
AA in 1998 where he hit .323 with 45 doubles and 16 homers and
had walked almost 100 times for the second straight season. Unfortunately
for the Twins, he wasn't able to hit major league pitching.
David Ortiz, 1b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 100 28 7 0 4 16 17 1 10 1 26 1 0 .280 .348 .470 .818 16
Prorated Min 22 6 1 0 0 3 3 0 2 0 5 0 0 .273 .333 .318 .652 2
Actual Min 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 12 0 0 .000 .200 .000 .200 0
Meanwhile, while Mientkiewicz was struggling, a first baseman
who played in almost half of the Twins games in 1998 was pounding
the ball (.315, 30 HR, 110 RBI) at AAA. A year ago, Ortiz was
expected to start the season at 1B but had difficulties with manager
Tom Kelly in spring training. He was sent to AAA, where he reportedly
sulked about his demotion. After a late-season callup, he looked
like he was still sulking, striking out in 12 of his 20 at bats
and failing to get a hit. Since the only way Tom Kelly will be
ousted as manager of the Twins would be from new ownership, Ortiz
better find a way to get along with the manager or he may be at
AAA again in 2000.
Todd Walker, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 611 179 41 2 15 92 76 3 55 9 84 18 8 .293 .350 .440 .790 92
Prorated Min 528 154 35 1 12 79 65 2 47 7 72 15 6 .292 .348 .430 .778 78
Actual Min 531 148 37 4 6 62 46 1 52 5 83 18 10 .279 .343 .397 .740 70
Walker is a good major league hitter (although he has problems
with lefties) but may not have a long-term home defensively. He
was a 2B in college but played third early in his professional
career. He was switched back to second, but has not shown enough
range at that position. It's not clear that he'll hit enough to
DH or play third or defend well enough to be in the middle of
the infield.
Cleatus Davidson, 2b, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Min 22 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 4 2 0 .136 .136 .136 .273 0
The Twins would love to be able to use Davidson as their everyday
second baseman. He just doesn't look like he has the offensive
skills to handle it. The best he has hit in the minors over a
full season is .255. He has oodles of speed and is a fantastic
second baseman defensively. He is also a good bunter. But he strikes
out way too much for a non-power hitter (114 in 1999 and 90 or
more for the last four years).
Brent Gates, 2b/3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 89 22 5 0 1 9 11 0 8 0 11 0 0 .247 .306 .337 .643 9
Prorated Min 311 76 17 0 3 31 38 0 27 0 38 0 0 .244 .302 .328 .630 31
Actual Min 306 78 13 2 3 40 38 1 34 1 56 1 3 .255 .328 .340 .668 33
Gates is a useful utility man. But with Denny Hocking around,
the Twins felt no need to have two roster spots filled with that
type of player, and Gates' contract was not renewed.
Corey Koskie, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 494 115 23 2 23 73 81 6 47 5 105 9 5 .233 .303 .427 .730 62
Prorated Min 349 81 16 1 16 51 57 4 33 3 74 6 3 .232 .303 .421 .724 44
Actual Min 342 106 21 0 11 42 58 5 40 4 72 4 4 .310 .387 .468 .855 63
Koskie did not fare well in his major league debut in 1998
and while he did have good numbers at AAA, he played in a league
and park that inflates offensive stats. As a result, there was
not much reason to expect that he would be a .300 hitter in his
first full season. He did just that, but was more of a line drive
hitter than he had been in the minors. He had a tough time against
lefties, managing only one extra base hit in 45 at bats. He saw
some time in right field as Kelly tried to get as many bats in
the lineup as possible. Koskie is a pretty good fielding third
baseman and should stay there for the whole season in 2000.
Cristian Guzman, ss, age 21
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 522 125 26 3 0 57 34 0 5 1 90 16 10 .239 .246 .301 .547 35
Prorated Min 438 104 21 2 0 47 28 0 4 0 75 13 8 .237 .244 .295 .539 35
Actual Min 420 95 12 3 1 47 26 3 22 0 90 9 7 .226 .267 .276 .543 32
Although the Twins were going with a youth movement, handing
the shortstop job to Guzman was surprising. The switch-hitter
was overmatched but looked good from the right side, batting .296
with 9 extra base hits, 2 more than he had in three times the
at bats against righthanders. He also struggled defensively, being
tied for second in the American League in errors and showing inconsistency;
making some spectacular plays but botching some easier ones. He
has a very strong arm and is a favorite of Tom Kelly's, and that
should give him the ability to improve without fearing for his
job.
[TT: Among all major-leaguers with at least 400 AB in 1999,
Guzman was the least productive hitter, with an OPS that was 34
points worse than runner-up Mike Caruso's. Kelly sacrificed an
awful lot of offense and some defense to give Guzman some experience.
It'll be interesting to see whether this pays off in the long
run, and how soon that payoff arrives.]
Denny Hocking, utility, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 111 24 4 1 1 15 10 0 8 0 22 1 1 .216 .267 .297 .564 9
Prorated Min 383 82 13 3 3 51 34 0 27 0 75 3 3 .214 .264 .287 .551 29
Actual Min 386 103 18 2 7 47 41 3 22 1 54 11 7 .267 .307 .378 .685 43
Hocking played every position last year except pitcher and
catcher in what was the closest thing to a full season Hocking
has had in his seven years with the Twins. His 199 results are
similar to those of his 1997 season, the only other season where
he has had 250 or more plate appearances.
Chad Allen, lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 69 14 3 0 0 10 8 1 5 0 10 1 0 .203 .267 .246 .513 5
Prorated Min 481 97 20 0 0 69 55 6 34 0 69 6 0 .202 .263 .243 .506 31
Actual Min 481 133 21 3 10 69 46 2 37 1 89 14 7 .277 .330 .395 .725 62
Allen was promoted to the Twins after just two full seasons
in the minors. He had a spectacular spring training and was given
an opportunity to play left field when Marty Cordova was injured.
He did well as a rookie but his ability is more suited for a fourth
outfielder than a starting leftfielder. He also tailed off quite
a bit in the second half, hitting .254 with a .314 OBP after the
All-Star break.
[TT: I was very surprised by his performance last year. In
1997-98, he batted only in the .260s at AA, and there was little
reason to believe he'd do as well in the majors.]
Chris Latham, lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 434 102 14 2 6 63 39 2 47 2 114 21 10 .235 .312 .318 .630 46
Prorated Min 21 5 0 0 0 3 1 0 2 0 5 1 0 .238 .304 .238 .542 2
Actual Min 22 2 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 13 0 0 .091 .083 .091 .174 0
Latham was beaten out of a spot on the roster by the rookie
Chad Allen. He hit .300 for the third straight season at AAA but
failed to hit in a late season callup. He is now a lifetime .152
hitter in the majors in 138 at bats over three seasons.
Torii Hunter, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 202 46 12 0 3 23 22 2 8 0 36 4 4 .228 .263 .332 .595 17
Prorated Min 394 89 23 0 5 44 42 3 15 0 70 7 7 .226 .259 .322 .581 31
Actual Min 384 98 17 2 9 52 35 6 26 1 72 10 6 .255 .309 .380 .689 44
Hunter has been a well-regarded prospect for the Twins despite
his struggles during his six year professional career. Hunter
is a tremendous athlete but has not been able to parlay his athleticism
into a successful baseball career. He is a diligent worker and
has improved his game. He is considered a good fielder and may
develop into a solid major league centerfielder.
Jacque Jones, cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 72 18 5 0 3 10 11 0 3 1 16 2 1 .250 .280 .444 .724 9
Prorated Min 329 82 23 0 14 46 50 0 14 3 73 9 4 .249 .280 .447 .727 41
Actual Min 322 93 24 2 9 54 44 4 17 1 63 3 4 .289 .329 .460 .789 47
Jacque Jones is a good defensive outfielder and a notorious
free-swinger who will likely get the nod over Hunter as the centerfielder
in 2000.
Marty Cordova, dh/rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 563 143 30 3 15 70 87 6 54 3 123 6 6 .254 .323 .398 .721 70
Prorated Min 436 110 23 2 11 54 67 4 41 2 95 4 4 .252 .320 .390 .709 52
Actual Min 425 121 28 3 14 62 70 9 48 2 96 13 4 .285 .365 .464 .828 69
Cordova is another example of the importance of attitude to
manager Tom Kelly. Cordova had a season in 1996 (.309,16,111)
that made many people think he was a blossoming star. He suffered
from foot and neck injuries in 1997 and 1998 and also was benched
often by Kelly in those two seasons. He complained of shoulder
pain in spring training and while he insisted he could play the
field, Kelly went with rookie in the outfield and made Cordova
the designated hitter. He had his best season since 1996 but the
Twins opted not to pick up his option and he is now a free agent.
Matt Lawton, rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 557 145 34 4 18 89 76 13 80 4 72 12 6 .260 .364 .433 .797 92
Prorated Min 406 105 24 2 13 64 55 9 58 2 52 8 4 .259 .362 .424 .786 66
Actual Min 406 105 18 0 7 58 54 6 57 7 42 26 4 .259 .353 .355 .708 56
In June, Lawton was hit in the face by a pitched ball that
fractured his eye socket. He missed about a month and was unable
to find his power stroke when he returned, slugging only .304
after after being hit. He stole 26 bases, two fewer than he had
in his entire major league career until this season, and was only
caught four times, which gave him the American League lead in
stolen base percentage. He is one of the few Twins who draws walks
and may be given a shot at the leadoff slot in 2000 if he shows
in spring training that he has fully recovered.
Key Pitchers
The bright spot of the season came from the success of the
pitching staff. Brad Radke was his usual workhorse self and led
the team in wins. Eric Milton threw a no-hitter. Rookie Joe Mays
looked like a legitimate major league starter. The bullpen, led
by veterans Hector Carrasco, Bob Wells, Eddie Guardado, and Mike
Trombley was the team's strength, despite the early season loss
of closer Rick Aguilera. The Twins have a number of young arms
still in the system and pitching and catching is likely the strong
suit down on the farm.
Brad Radke, starter, age 26 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.13 32 32 12 12 0 216 223 25 44 146 .268 .729
Prorated Min 4.13 33 33 12 12 0 219 226 25 45 148 .268 .729
Actual Min 3.75 33 33 12 14 0 219 239 28 44 121 .280 .757
At various times, the Twins have talked about signing Radke
to a long-term contract or dealing him in an effort to get something
in return before he becomes a free agent after the 2000 season.
He is considered one of the game's top young starters in part
because he has thrown 200 or more innings for the last four years
and because he is one of the best control pitchers in baseball.
But he has also been suffering from a disconcerting slide in
his strikeout rate over the last three seasons. He had 6.53 per
nine innings in 1997, the year he won 20 games, then dropped to
6.15 in 1998 and an alarming 4.98 in 1999. Although Radke is far
too young to be considered washed up, one has to wonder whether
his extensive workload is doing him harm. His 3.75 ERA of last
year is deceptive, too. Based on what he surrendered, his ERA
should have been more in line with his career 4.30 mark.
Eric Milton, starter, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.93 32 32 9 11 0 173 187 23 71 110 .275 .796
Prorated Min 4.93 36 36 10 12 0 194 209 26 79 123 .275 .796
Actual Min 4.49 34 34 7 11 0 206 190 28 63 163 .243 .706
If I had to pick who I thought would be the best American League
pitcher in the first decade of the 2000s, this would be my pick.
Milton already has authored the most maligned no-hitter since
Joe Cowley's 7-1, 7 walk no-hitter in 1986. The fact is Milton
retired major leaguers without a hit for nine innings, even if
they were primarily September callups. But consider that only
Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez allowed fewer runners per nine
innings in the American League. The no-hitter was the culmination
of an amazing second half where he allowed just 111 runners in
103.2 innings, striking out 98.
La Troy Hawkins, starter, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.74 32 32 8 14 0 187 229 26 63 107 .305 .843
Prorated Min 5.74 31 31 8 14 0 180 221 25 61 103 .305 .843
Actual Min 6.66 33 33 10 14 0 174 238 29 60 103 .323 .880
You have to think that one of these days, the Twins are going
to give up on Hawkins. After 98 major league starts, you have
to say that the career 6.16 ERA is legitimate. I like finding
comparisons between players. Take a look at the career statistics
of Hawkins against another once-well-regarded pitcher:
Hawkins - 27 years old, born in December. 98 GS, 521.1 IP,
357 ER, 26-44 record, 6.16 ERA.
Mystery pitcher - 28 years old, born in December. 80 GS, 509.1
IP, 353 ER, 22-37 record, 6.24 ERA.
Who's the mystery pitcher? A former first-round draft choice
by the name of Todd Van Poppel. Van Poppel has been bouncing from
team to team, from the rotation to the bullpen, and from the minors
to the majors. The same thing is likely to happen to Hawkins.
Joe Mays, starter/long reliever, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 7.62 23 0 1 3 0 28 41 4 14 23 .333 .837
Prorated Min 7.62 5 16 0 153 222 22 76 124 .333 .837
Actual Min 4.37 49 20 6 11 0 171 179 24 67 115 .270 .778
Mays began the season in relief but was called upon to start
in June as the Twins had problems finding anyone to successfully
do so other than Lincoln and Radke. He filled the spot nicely
to begin with, going 4-1 in his first two months of starting.
Mays is not a very durable pitcher despite the Twins letting him
go the distance in two of his starts. The Twins need starters
and he will probably be the number four starter in 2000 but down
the road a return to the bullpen may be the key to his long-term
success.
Mike Lincoln, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.59 27 27 6 13 0 150 208 21 52 91 .323 .800
Prorated Min 6.59 14 14 3 7 0 76 105 11 26 46 .323 .800
Actual Min 6.84 18 15 3 10 0 76 102 11 26 27 .321 .893
Lincoln performed well in the minors before this season, mostly
in friendly ballparks and/or leagues. He had established himself
as a pretty good control pitcher but had problems facing higher
caliber hitters. He was demoted after the All-Star break to AAA
and had no success there, either. He could stand to have a full
season at AAA.
Dan Perkins, swing man, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 7.76 34 4 2 5 0 60 84 11 26 36 .333 .945
Prorated Min 7.76 49 6 3 7 0 88 122 16 38 52 .333 .945
Actual Min 6.54 29 12 1 7 0 87 117 14 43 44 .326 .947
Mays' predecessor in the rotation. Perkins replaced a faltering
starter in Benj Sampson, but did not fare much better than Sampson
and found himself in the bullpen, too. Perkins has had a long
and unremarkable minor league career. The Twins have enough young
arms to push him aside.
Jason Ryan, starter, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Min 4.87 8 8 1 4 0 41 46 9 17 15 .286 .891
Acquired early in the season from the Cubs for Rick Aguilera,
Ryan had spent three of the past four years at the A level. In
1998, he spent the season at AA going 3-13 with a 4.88 ERA. He
opened 1999 on a tear, going 5-0 with a 1.41 ERA at AA before
being sent to the Twins. The Twins kept him at AA for about six
weeks, moved him up to AAA, and then called him up in August to
be part of the rotation. At Minnesota, Ryan pitched tentatively
but was also behind quickly in almost all of his eight starts.
He showed that he has major league ability and will probably make
the rotation in 2000.
Benj Sampson, long relief, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.38 32 32 8 13 0 165 212 27 69 124 .311 .878
Prorated Min 6.38 14 14 4 6 0 74 95 12 31 56 .311 .878
Actual Min 8.11 30 4 3 2 0 71 107 17 34 56 .351 .984
A member of the rotation coming out of spring training. Sampson
was moved to the bullpen after three starts and then was demoted
in August when the Twins decided to bring up Jason Ryan. Sampson
allowed an ungodly number of homeruns and showed little indication
of promise.
Hector Carrasco, long relief, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 3.91 53 0 4 3 0 71 74 6 36 55 .270 .741
Prorated Min 3.91 34 0 3 2 0 46 47 4 23 35 .270 .741
Actual Min 4.96 40 0 2 3 1 49 48 3 18 35 .261 .698
In a season that saw a number of players fight career- and
life-threatening illnesses, many people overlooked Carrasco's
health struggle. Carrasco started experiencing difficulties in
spring training and was hospitalized after his hand went numb
in a game. It was discovered that he had two blood clots in his
arm. He underwent surgery that was thought to be career ending,
but Carrasco recovered and found himself back on the mound at
the end of June. He had a rough start but then returned to form,
posting solid numbers the rest of the way.
Mark Redman, swing man, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.61 3 3 1 1 0 16 21 2 9 13 .318 .903
Prorated Min 6.61 3 3 1 1 0 14 18 2 8 11 .318 .903
Actual Min 8.53 5 1 1 0 0 13 17 3 7 11 .298 .964
Redman was considered a pitching prospect for the Twins but
has been hindered by minor injuries. He broke his hand during
the offseason in 1998 and was sent to minor league camp in spring
training as he worked on regaining his grip. Last season, he was
called up in July only to be placed on the disabled list with
a sore shoulder. When he came off he was sent down to AAA and
returned to the Twins for two weeks in September. Redman's progress
has been slowed after rocketing through the minors in his first
full season in 1995. 2000 will be a critical year for him to prove
he can pitch at the major league level.
Eddie Guardado, setup man, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.07 70 0 4 3 1 73 71 11 28 69 .254 .764
Prorated Min 4.07 44 0 3 2 1 46 44 7 18 43 .254 .764
Actual Min 4.50 63 0 2 5 2 48 37 6 25 50 .222 .771
Guardado is one of the better situational lefty relievers in
the majors. The Twins realized that and signed him to a long-term
contract in the offseason. A strained elbow ligament hampered
him for two months and eventually put him on the disabled list.
Travis Miller, middle reliever, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.50 53 0 3 4 0 69 84 8 37 54 .305 .862
Prorated Min 5.50 36 0 2 3 0 46 57 5 25 36 .305 .862
Actual Min 2.72 52 0 2 2 0 50 55 3 16 40 .284 .711
This was the first season that Miller was not pummeled by extra
base hits. He also developed his control and was another pleasant
surprise for the Twins bullpen.
Bob Wells, setup man, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.47 40 0 4 5 0 81 96 16 25 52 .295 .875
Prorated Min 5.47 40 0 4 5 0 82 97 16 25 53 .295 .875
Actual Min 3.81 76 0 8 3 1 87 79 8 28 44 .245 .699
Bob Wells developed into a quality setup man after spending
several uneventful years pitching for the Mariners. Part of his
success was attributable to his keeping hitters off balance. Batters
hit an unfathomable .190 against him when he was behind in the
count. The Twins believe they have a find, as they signed Wells
to a two-year contract in the offseason.
Mike Trombley, closer, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.09 70 0 6 4 2 99 94 13 36 88 .251 .733
Prorated Min 4.09 63 0 5 4 2 89 84 12 32 79 .251 .733
Actual Min 4.33 75 0 2 8 24 87 93 15 28 82 .272 .796
The closer by default for the Twins after Aguilera was dealt
to the Cubs, Trombley had had success as a setup man and seemed
like a good fit for his new role. His 1999 performance was nothing
special but was enough to make the Orioles make him the first
free agent signing in the offseason.
Outlook
There probably will not be as many unknowns in the lineup for
2000 as there were in 1999. Koskie and Guzman should secure the
left side of the infield. Ortiz should play somewhere, either
first or DH. The Twins have enough legitimate candidates for the
outfield to identify three starters. And with LeCroy, Pierzynski,
Valentin, and Chad Moeller, they have more young talent at catcher
than probably anyone since the Padres had Santiago, Alomar, and
Parent.
But despite knowing who's going to be playing, one has to ask
who is going to perform. Ortiz is the only player on the roster
who can be classified as a power threat and there are no great
hitters on the team, even if Koskie is able to replicate his .300
season. Without runs, it would take a phenomenal pitching staff
to turn this team into a .500 team in 2000.
Is this staff phenomenal? No. Good? Yes. Radke and Milton could
potentially become a feared one-two pitch. But whereas Milton's
stock is rising, there has to be some concern about the direction
in which Radke is heading. Joe Mays is unproven but may well be
a legitimate starter. Sean Bergman is the only significant signing
of the offseason for the Twins and he will be part of the rotation.
The bullpen is set except for a hole at closer. Minor-leaguer
Brent Stentz saved 43 games at AA in 1998 but then had difficulties
in 1999, so there is no clear candidate who can step into the
role. Setup men Guardado or Wells could be converted. With J.C.
Romero a strong suitor for a left-handed setup role, Guardado
should be considered the favorite although he isn't particularly
strong against right-handed batters. Maybe a converted starter
in LaTroy Hawkins?
For 2000, it is a stretch to think the Twins might win 70 games
but they should have a lot of interesting players to watch.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
