This article takes a look at how the New York Yankees did in
the 1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 931 900
Runs allowed 676 731
Run Margin 255 169
Wins 105 98
Pythagorean wins 106 98
Placement 1st 1st
The Yankees didn't make a lot of changes during the last off-season.
It makes sense that they'd try to keep a team that won 114 games
and the World Series intact. (Their 1998 record is often reported
with the post-season games included because 125 and 50 are such
nice round numbers.) The one change they made seemed like an obvious
improvement: they shipped David Wells and Homer Bush to Toronto
for Cy Young award winner Roger Clemens.
Despite that, few knowledgeable fans and commentators really
expected the Yankees to improve on their previous record. You
don't collect more than 110 victories unless almost all of your
key people are at the very top of their game, and that's not likely
to happen two years in a row. For example, after the Cleveland
Indians won 111 games in 1954, they replaced Dave Philley with
Ralph Kiner, added rookie phenom Herb Score to the best starting
rotation in baseball, kept the rest of their squad (more or less)
intact, and proceeded to win 18 fewer games and finish second.
The Yankees won 16 fewer games that they had in 1998 -- the largest
drop in the AL -- and still had the best record in the league.
Key Position Players
The Yankees' offense was slightly worse than projected in 1999.
On the surface it's not obvious why. The players who hit better
than expected (Knoblauch, Jeter, Williams, Ledee and Curtis) should
have more than made up for those hitting worse (Posada, Girardi,
Martinez, O'Neill and Spencer). They did steal less frequently
and successfully than they had in 1998, but more likely the 31
fewer runs they scored was simply caused by the luck of the draw.
Jorge Posada, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 341 87 20 0 14 56 55 2 51 5 80 0 1 .255 .352 .437 .789 53
Prorated NYA 373 95 21 0 15 61 60 2 55 5 87 0 1 .255 .350 .432 .782 56
Actual NYA 379 93 19 2 12 50 57 3 53 2 91 1 0 .245 .341 .401 .742 54
The Yankees had hopes that Posada would continue to improve
in 1999, but his offense took a small step backward instead. He
got off to a slow start and his batting average was under .200
as late as July 9th. The team had his eyes examined at one point
to see if there was a medical reason for his slump. They were
fine. His hitting improved over the second half and by the season's
end, he was not that far below our projections for him.
Joe Girardi, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 182 49 9 2 1 20 21 2 12 1 26 2 2 .269 .320 .357 .677 19
Prorated NYA 207 55 10 2 1 22 23 2 13 1 29 2 2 .266 .314 .348 .662 21
Actual NYA 209 50 16 1 2 23 27 0 10 0 26 3 1 .239 .271 .354 .626 16
Girardi had perhaps the poorest hitting year of his career
in 1999. He doesn't walk much and has little power, so when he
hits .239 it overstates his value at the plate. His playing time
has decreased each of the last three years, as Posada took over
the starting role, and Girardi decided after the season to return
to the Chicago Cubs in 2000 rather than see his role diminished
even further.
Tino Martinez, 1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 538 149 29 1 31 85 118 4 62 6 78 2 1 .277 .350 .507 .858 95
Prorated NYA 582 161 31 1 33 92 127 4 67 6 84 2 1 .277 .350 .503 .853 102
Actual NYA 589 155 27 2 28 95 105 3 69 7 86 3 4 .263 .341 .458 .800 91
After arriving in New York with a bang in 1997 (44 HRs and
141 RBIs), Martinez has now turned in two mediocre seasons in
a row. He had a lot of trouble hitting in Yankee stadium last
year (.227 AVG with only 7 HRs), but this was probably not significant
as he had hit well at home the year before. Despite topping 100
RBIs for the fifth straight season, Martinez was one of the worst-hitting
regular first basemen in the majors in 1999, ahead of only Rico
Brogna and Darrin Erstad in on-base plus slugging percentage.
With Nick Johnson tearing up the minor leagues, Martinez may not
be the Yankees first baseman much past the year 2000.
Chuck Knoblauch, 2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 587 165 25 8 13 117 60 17 81 3 72 41 13 .281 .381 .417 .798 102
Prorated NYA 606 170 25 8 13 120 61 17 83 3 74 42 13 .281 .379 .413 .792 103
Actual NYA 603 176 36 4 18 120 68 21 83 0 57 28 9 .292 .393 .454 .848 118
An awful stretch from May 2nd to the end of the month, when
he hit .141 with only one home run, got him dropped down to the
7th slot for a game in early June. He also dyed his hair blond
in July in an effort to change his luck. It seemed to work, at
least at the plate, as Knoblauch hit extremely well over the second
half of the season. His defense was another story, however, as
his frequent inability to make routine throws led to most of his
major league leading 26 errors. It was painful to watch at times
and something he will have to overcome if he's going to remain
a regular second baseman in the major leagues.
Derek Jeter, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 602 191 27 7 15 117 77 8 61 1 112 25 8 .317 .386 .460 .846 110
Prorated NYA 656 208 29 7 16 127 83 8 66 1 122 27 8 .317 .385 .456 .841 119
Actual NYA 627 219 37 9 24 134 102 12 91 5 116 19 8 .349 .438 .552 .989 158
What can you say about Jeter? He set highs in just about every
offensive category except stolen bases in 1999. His power and
plate discipline were a pleasant surprise, making him arguably
the most valuable player in the league last year.
I'm not sure who has been the greatest shortstop in AL history
-- if forced to make a choice I'd probably go with either Joe
Cronin or Cal Ripken. Fifteen years from now, however, those two
could very well drop to fourth and fifth on the list, assuming
of course, that Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra don't
have career-threatening injuries or get moved to another position.
The latter could be a distinct possibility down the road for
Jeter; the Yankees have two top shortstops in their minor league
system, Alfonso Soriano and D'Angelo Jiminez, and it wouldn't
surprise me if all three are in the Yankee lineup in the next
couple of years.
Scott Brosius, 3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 504 132 28 0 17 74 73 7 48 2 99 9 6 .262 .332 .419 .751 72
Prorated NYA 468 122 26 0 15 68 67 6 44 1 92 8 5 .261 .330 .412 .743 65
Actual NYA 473 117 26 1 17 64 71 6 39 2 74 9 3 .247 .307 .414 .722 60
After hitting .304, .203 and .300 the three previous years,
Brosius headed for the middle ground in 1999. He hit only .194
against lefties last year, but that included 10 home runs in only
108 at-bats. He spent time on the DL in April with a sprained
ankle, one of the few Yankee regulars to spend any time on the
disabled list last year.
Luis Sojo, 3b/2b/ss, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 127 32 4 1 0 12 12 0 6 0 10 1 0 .252 .284 .299 .583 10
Prorated NYA 124 31 3 0 0 11 11 0 5 0 9 0 0 .250 .279 .274 .553 9
Actual NYA 127 32 6 0 2 20 16 0 4 0 17 1 0 .252 .275 .346 .621 11
Sojo was let go after the end of the season when the Yankees
decided to use D'Angelo Jiminez as their back-up infielder in
2000.
Paul O'Neill, rf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 616 187 41 1 23 95 115 2 73 6 102 9 5 .304 .374 .485 .859 110
Prorated NYA 593 180 39 0 22 91 110 1 70 5 98 8 4 .304 .373 .481 .854 105
Actual NYA 597 170 39 4 19 70 110 2 66 1 89 11 9 .285 .353 .459 .812 92
O'Neill had his worst season since coming to the Yankees in
1993, posting New York lows in batting average, on-base percentage
and slugging percentage. He was almost hopeless against lefties
last year, hitting only .190 with 3 home runs in 158 at-bats,
and might be platooned in 2000 if the trend continues.
Bernie Williams, cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 560 179 33 5 26 113 106 1 81 8 87 16 8 .320 .403 .536 .938 120
Prorated NYA 602 192 35 5 27 121 114 1 87 8 93 17 8 .319 .402 .528 .931 128
Actual NYA 591 202 28 6 25 116 115 1 100 17 95 9 10 .342 .435 .536 .971 140
Conventional wisdom wasn't on Williams' side last year. After
all, the Yankees signed him to a contract worth $87.5 million
over the next seven years prior to the season. There are two ways
to look at what was supposed to happen to Williams in 1999: either
he puts too much pressure on himself trying to justify the huge
sums of money he's being paid and slumps badly under the strain,
or he kicks back and enjoys his long-term security while players
with much more at stake enjoy better years. Instead, Williams
set career highs in games played, hits, runs, RBIs, walks, batting
average and on-base percentage last year. He suffered from tendinitis
in his right shoulder the last month of the season, but it didn't
cause him to miss any time.
Ricky Ledee, lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 417 104 21 2 20 74 58 2 44 3 117 8 2 .249 .321 .453 .774 62
Prorated NYA 248 62 12 1 11 44 34 1 26 1 69 4 1 .250 .321 .440 .761 36
Actual NYA 250 69 13 5 9 45 40 0 28 5 73 4 3 .276 .346 .476 .822 42
Tim Raines was cut loose by the Yankees following the 1998
season, a move that seemed designed to give Ricky Ledee an opportunity
to take over most of the left-field duties last year. Instead,
a slow start (9 for 45, no home runs) got him sent back to the
minors on May 9th. He returned in late June and got an an opportunity
to play a short time later when Spencer went on the DL. Ledee
went on a tear in July and August, hitting .355 with 7 homers
in 124 at-bats, before slumping down the stretch. Despite the
slow start and finish, he still hit better than anticipated and
should be the regular left-fielder (at least against right-handers)
in 2000.
Chad Curtis, lf/dh/cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 220 54 11 0 6 37 27 3 33 1 37 8 3 .245 .347 .377 .725 31
Prorated NYA 207 50 10 0 5 34 25 2 31 0 34 7 2 .242 .343 .362 .705 28
Actual NYA 195 51 6 0 5 37 24 3 43 0 35 8 4 .262 .398 .369 .767 32
As expected, Curtis saw his playing time diminish in 1999.
His hitting was slightly better than projected last year, but
he still didn't fit into New York's long-term plans and was dealt
to the Rangers after the season for a minor-league pitcher.
Shane Spencer, lf/rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 67 17 5 0 3 11 13 0 7 0 13 0 0 .254 .320 .463 .783 10
Prorated NYA 201 51 15 0 9 33 39 0 21 0 39 0 0 .254 .320 .463 .783 31
Actual NYA 205 48 8 0 8 25 20 2 18 0 51 0 4 .234 .301 .390 .691 24
Spencer came back down to earth last year, looking a lot more
like the hitter who'd hit .241 at the AAA in 1997 than the phenom
who batted .373 with 10 homers in 67 at-bats at the end of 1998.
He was sent down to the minors briefly in late April, but seemed
to have taken over as the semi-regular left-fielder in early July
when he was disabled for most of the month with an irregular heartbeat.
He couldn't get untracked after returning, hitting only .224 with
little power the rest of the way. He doesn't hit righties very
well at all, and unless that changes will probably be little more
than a platoon player or pinch-hitter in 2000.
Chili Davis, dh, age 39
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 486 131 23 0 21 62 75 2 80 13 95 4 3 .270 .372 .447 .818 80
Prorated NYA 469 126 22 0 20 59 72 1 77 12 91 3 2 .269 .370 .443 .814 76
Actual NYA 476 128 25 1 19 59 78 2 73 7 100 4 1 .269 .366 .445 .812 80
In what would turn out to be his final season, Chili Davis
used a hot start (.325 average with 9 homers before the beginning
of June) and a cold finish (.209 with 5 home runs after the end
of July) to reach almost exactly his projected results.
Darryl Strawberry, dh, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 85 18 3 0 6 12 16 1 12 1 26 2 2 .212 .316 .459 .775 12
Prorated NYA 57 12 2 0 4 8 10 0 8 0 17 1 1 .211 .308 .456 .764 8
Actual NYA 49 16 5 0 3 10 6 0 17 0 16 2 0 .327 .500 .612 1.112 18
We expected Strawberry's recovery from colon cancer to take
much of 1999 to complete. Early in the season, however, his comeback
looked like it would take even longer when he was charged with
cocaine possession and solicitation. The drug charges got him
suspended from major league baseball until August 4th and he didn't
join the Yankees until the beginning of September. A hot last
month (at one point he got on base in 19 of 27 plate appearances)
makes him the front-runner for the DH job in 2000. Still, it seems
awfully risky to count too heavily on Strawberry, who has knee
and foot problems and hasn't gotten 300 at-bats in a season since
1991.
Key Pitchers
Roger Clemens was supposed to anchor the best pitching staff
in the AL in 1999; instead, he was the major reason for New York
allowing 55 more runs than projected last year. Pettitte and Hernandez
(at least until the post-season) were also mild disappointments,
while only Jason Grimsley qualified as a pleasant surprise.
David Cone, starter, age 36 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.58 32 32 15 9 0 211 189 21 80 225 .240 .687
Prorated NYA 3.58 30 30 14 8 0 195 174 19 74 208 .240 .687
Actual NYA 3.44 31 31 12 9 0 193 164 21 90 177 .229 .697
David Cone was perfect in 1999 when pitching with 10 days rest.
Actually, he did pitch two innings in an exhibition game during
his layoff, but when he took the mound against the Expos on July
18th, it was his first start since July 7th. In his 13 starts
after pitching a perfect game against Montreal, however, Cone
would go 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA and not pitch into the eighth inning
once. After having the best control of his career in 1998, Cone
had his worst last year, walking 4.19 men per 9 innings. He pitched
two fine games in the post-season and was re-signed in December
to a one-year deal.
Roger Clemens, starter, age 36
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 2.73 32 32 16 7 0 221 176 12 77 247 .220 .611
Prorated NYA 2.73 29 29 15 6 0 202 161 11 71 227 .220 .611
Actual NYA 4.60 30 30 14 10 0 188 185 20 90 163 .261 .744
Coming off of two consecutive Cy Young award performances in
Toronto, Clemens was expected to do more of the same for New York
in 1999. Instead, he turned in one of the worst performances of
his Hall of Fame career. He missed three weeks in May with hamstring
problems, but didn't pitch particularly well either before or
after his injury. He somehow managed to win his first five decisions
of the year, bringing his streak of consecutive winning decisions
to 20, before losing to the Mets on June 6th.
Orlando Hernandez, starter, age 33
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.72 32 32 15 9 0 208 191 19 87 214 .244 .698
Prorated NYA 3.72 33 33 15 9 0 211 194 19 88 217 .244 .698
Actual NYA 4.12 33 33 17 9 0 214 187 24 87 157 .233 .703
Despite a somewhat higher ERA than projected, Hernandez took
over as the Yankees ace in 1999. He was actually harder to hit
than anticipated, but slightly more generous with the home run
ball. He had another stellar post-season last fall, raising his
two-year playoff mark to 5-0 with a 1.02 ERA, and was the starting
pitcher in the opening game of all three rounds.
Andy Pettitte, starter, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.84 27 27 11 9 0 178 181 12 64 125 .267 .703
Prorated NYA 3.84 30 30 12 10 0 200 204 14 72 141 .267 .703
Actual NYA 4.70 31 31 14 11 0 192 216 20 89 121 .289 .810
Pettitte started the year on the DL with a strained elbow and
struggled mightily through the first four months of the season.
At the trading deadline, he had a 7-8 record with a 5.65 ERA,
and there were rumors that the Yankees trying to unload him. He
seemed to turn his season around in August, winning five of six
starts and posting a 1.76 ERA. Unfortunately, he reverted to his
early-season form in September, finishing up with the highest
ERA of his career (for the second straight year).
Hideki Irabu, starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.90 27 27 8 10 0 160 158 30 72 129 .259 .795
Prorated NYA 4.90 28 28 8 10 0 167 165 31 75 135 .259 .795
Actual NYA 4.84 32 27 11 7 0 169 180 26 46 133 .267 .750
Irabu posted a 8.38 ERA in spring training, but it was his
failure to cover first on a ground-ball to the right side that
got him called a "fat toad" by George Steinbrenner.
I guess you could say that the start of Irabu's second full season
in New York did not exactly get off to a smooth start.
He was replaced in the rotation at the beginning of the season
by Ramiro Mendoza and got bombed (5 runs in 1/3 inning) and booed
when he made his first appearance of the year at Yankee Stadium.
Injuries, as well as a couple of good relief outings, got him
back into the rotation at the beginning of May.
As he did in the previous year, Irabu had stretches when he
was extremely effective in 1999. He won eight games in a row at
one point and compiled a 2.88 ERA in June and July. Unfortunately,
he also pitched poorly for long periods, and over the last two
months of the season went 3-4 with a 6.63 ERA, losing any chance
of starting a post-season game. He was awful in his one playoff
appearance, a mop-up role during the Yankees only post-season
loss, and was dealt to the Montreal Expos after the season for
a minor league pitcher.
Mariano Rivera, closer, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 2.29 70 0 5 5 43 79 65 4 22 69 .226 .601
Prorated NYA 2.29 60 0 4 4 37 67 55 3 19 59 .226 .601
Actual NYA 1.83 66 0 4 3 45 69 43 2 18 52 .176 .476
Since moving into the closer's role after John Wetteland left
in 1996, Rivera has now posted three straight sub-2.00 ERAs. He's
only the second reliever in history to accomplish this feat. The
other? Hoyt Wilhelm, the knuckleball Hall of Famer, who from 1964
to 1968 had sub-2.00 ERAs in five straight years. For a while,
it didn't look like Rivera was going to be able to do it. After
a slump in July, during which he allowed 9 runs in 7 1/3 innings,
Rivera's ERA stood at 3.29. He didn't allow another run the rest
of the season, a span of 30 2/3 innings. He was just as impressive
in the post-season, pitching 12 1/3 scoreless innings, while saving
six games and winning two more.
Ramiro Mendoza, swing man, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.30 58 5 5 5 0 105 113 8 22 53 .280 .735
Prorated NYA 4.30 71 6 6 6 0 128 138 10 27 65 .280 .735
Actual NYA 4.29 53 6 9 9 3 124 141 13 27 80 .284 .750
Mendoza began the season in the starting rotation before moving
back to the bullpen by the middle of May. It was the third straight
season he had moved between the rotation and the bullpen, but
by the end of the year he seemed to have finally settled into
the role of a middle reliever.
Jeff Nelson, middle relief, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.64 70 0 6 3 3 96 89 7 43 100 .247 .723
Prorated NYA 3.64 23 0 2 1 1 32 29 2 14 33 .247 .723
Actual NYA 4.15 39 0 2 1 1 30 27 2 22 35 .245 .743
Nelson missed three weeks in May with elbow inflammation before
having surgery to remove bone spurs in early June. He wouldn't
return until the second week of August, but he pitched very well
the rest of the way (5.74 ERA before the surgery, 2.45 after).
Mike Stanton, middle relief, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.55 70 0 6 3 1 99 89 13 41 89 .241 .712
Prorated NYA 3.55 45 0 4 2 1 64 57 8 26 57 .241 .712
Actual NYA 4.33 73 1 2 2 0 62 71 5 18 59 .289 .760
The home run ball, which had victimized Stanton in 1998, wasn't
as much of a problem last season, which accounted for the drop
in his ERA (from 5.47 to 4.33) despite the fact that he was quite
a bit easier to hit than expected. He made the first start of
his career in 1999 on May 9th against Seattle. He pitched four
scoreless innings but left with a 4-0 lead, one inning shy of
qualifying for the victory. He had made 552 relief appearances
prior to that start, breaking Gary Lavelle's record. Lavelle had
made 434 relief appearance before starting for the first time
back in August of 1981. I'll bet that's one record Lavelle never
even knew he had.
Jason Grimsley, middle relief, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 5.93 30 0 3 4 0 58 66 7 37 39 .293 .861
Prorated NYA 5.93 37 0 4 5 0 72 82 9 46 49 .293 .861
Actual NYA 3.60 55 0 7 2 1 75 66 7 40 49 .231 .683
When Grimsley last appeared in the major leagues, he was putting
up a 6.84 ERA for the 1996 California Angels. New York was his
fourth organization since then, and he was not counted upon to
make much of a contribution. He got hot early and was one of the
most valuable middle relievers during the first two months of
the season. When Nelson went on the DL in early June, the Yankees
attempted to move Grimsley into the setup role but he pitched
poorly and was moved back to middle relief. He was streaky throughout
the year -- at one point in late July and early August he retired
only one of eleven batters over a four-game span -- but finished
with a strong September.
Outlook
The Yankees once again haven't made a lot of changes during
the off-season. Chad Curtis and Hidecki Irabu were traded away
for prospects; Joe Girardi left as a free agent, while Chili Davis
retired. None of these players figured prominently in their future
plans, although New York does need to find a replacement for Girardi.
Replacing most of the others shouldn't be a problem, as New
York has a loaded farm system. Shortstop prospect D'Angelo Jiminez
should make the team next year as a back-up infielder, and Alfonso
Soriano is not far behind him. If either Knoblauch or Brosius
needs replacing, these players seem capable of doing the job.
Nick Johnson could take over for Tino Martinez in time for 2001.
Pitcher Ed Yarnall is coming off a 13-4 season at their AAA club
(where he won the Internation League Most Valuable Pitcher award)
and is slated to replace Irabu in the starting rotation.
One notable thing about the Yankees last year was how relatively
injury-free they were. For the most part, their position players
were able to stay in the lineup all year, and their five starting
pitchers accounted for all but 10 of the team's starts. I wouldn't
expect this run of good fortune to continue through next year
as well, but given their farm system, this team seems better equipped
than most to handle a string of injuries to key players. They
probably won't go 11-2 or 11-1 in the post-season again, but they
should make their sixth straight playoff appearance in 2000.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
