This article takes a look at how the NewYork Mets did in the
1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 757 853
Runs allowed 672 711
Run Margin 85 142
Wins 90 97
Pythagorean wins 91 96
Placement 2nd 2nd
The Mets spent a small fortune (in baseball terms) to bring
a second playoff team to New York last year. In signing Mike Piazza,
Al Leiter and Robin Ventura, the Mets tied up $155 million dollars
worth of their short- and long-term capital. They failed to sign
Brian Jordan, settling instead on 40-year-old Rickey Henderson
to help replace departing outfielders Butch Huskey and Tony Phillips.
In a move that gave many Mets fans cause for concern, they also
dealt disappointing Mel Rojas to the Dodgers for Bobby Bonilla,
a mediocre player with a huge contract. It sure looked like a
case of subtraction by addition, and the proposed outfield of
Bonilla, McRae and Henderson promised to be the worst in all of
baseball. There were fewer changes to the pitching staff, as Hideo
Nomo was released in spring training to be replaced in the rotation
by free-agent Orel Hershiser.
Things didn't go well for the first two months. By early June
the Mets had a losing record and GM Steve Phillips responded by
firing three of Bobby Valentine's coaches. It was probably no
more than a coincidence that the Mets proceeded to post the best
record in baseball over the next three and a half months. Their
annual late September swoon almost cost them the wild card spot,
but they managed an unlikely recovery, sweeping the Pirates on
the last weekend of the season before trouncing the Reds in a
one-game playoff.
Key Position Players
The Mets were a better hitting team than anticipated in 1999.
Much of that was due to great seasons by Robin Ventura and Edgardo
Alfonzo in the infield, and surprising performances by Roger Cedeno,
Benny Agbayani and Rickey Henderson in the outfield. Bobby Bonilla
and Brian McRae were the only real disappointments on offense,
but Bonilla's failings were minimized by his lack of playing time
and injuries, while McRae was dealt to the Rockies at the end
of July.
Mike Piazza, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 491 165 30 1 28 82 99 2 59 13 71 1 1 .336 .406 .572 .979 112
Prorated NYN 523 175 31 1 29 87 105 2 62 13 75 1 1 .335 .404 .564 .968 117
Actual NYN 534 162 25 0 40 100 124 1 51 11 70 2 2 .303 .361 .575 .936 101
Despite tying his career high in both home runs and RBIs (both
marks being set in 1997), Piazza hit somewhat worse than projected
last year. Most of this was due to a career-low batting average
and on-base percentage. He's caught an awful lot of games so far
in his career, and I keep waiting for that workload to catch up
to him. He missed two weeks in April with sprained knee ligaments
and still managed to catch 137 games.
He has played his entire career in pitchers' parks and his
lifetime road batting average of .346 (with a 1.013 OPS), makes
you wonder what he would have done playing half of his games in
Coors Field, where his career batting average is .407 and his
slugging percentage .738.
Todd Pratt, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 122 32 7 0 4 15 17 2 11 0 29 0 0 .262 .333 .418 .751 17
Prorated NYN 143 37 8 0 4 17 20 2 12 0 34 0 0 .259 .325 .399 .723 18
Actual NYN 140 41 4 0 3 18 21 3 15 0 32 2 0 .293 .369 .386 .754 22
A poor spring in 1998 cost Pratt an opportunity to be the Mets
regular catcher. He did as well as expected in his back-up role,
playing especially well when filling in for Piazza in April, but
didn't hit a home run after April 22nd.
John Olerud, 1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 562 170 32 2 21 86 91 9 88 9 69 0 1 .302 .402 .479 .880 111
Prorated NYN 611 184 34 2 22 93 98 9 95 9 75 0 1 .301 .399 .471 .871 118
Actual NYN 581 173 39 0 19 107 96 11 125 5 66 3 0 .298 .427 .463 .890 122
After hitting .353 and losing a batting title to Larry Walker
and Coors Field in 1998, John Olerud came back down to earth last
year. He's had a strange career, with two seasons (1993 and 1998)
where he was one of the best hitters in baseball, followed by
a bunch of others during which he was merely very good. In some
ways he reminds me of Mickey Vernon, a first baseman from the
forties and fifties who surrounded two outstanding seasons with
more than a dozen good ones.
Olerud doesn't have a lot of power for a first baseman, but
he made up for that by walking a career-high 125 times. He's also
an underrated defensive player, something which should become
obvious next year when Met fans have the opportunity to watch
his replacement (Todd Zeile, a converted third baseman) in action.
Matt Franco, 1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 114 29 5 0 1 14 12 1 11 3 15 0 0 .254 .323 .325 .647 12
Prorated NYN 144 36 6 0 1 17 15 1 13 3 19 0 0 .250 .314 .313 .627 14
Actual NYN 132 31 5 0 4 18 21 0 28 3 21 0 0 .235 .366 .364 .730 17
The team's DH, Franco set a record of sorts last year when
he walked 20 times as a pinch-hitter. Despite that, he really
doesn't hit well enough to hold down a job as a hitting specialist.
Edgardo Alfonzo, 2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 597 174 29 2 16 94 82 3 68 1 74 10 3 .291 .365 .427 .792 97
Prorated NYN 639 186 31 2 17 100 87 3 72 1 79 10 3 .291 .364 .426 .789 103
Actual NYN 628 191 41 1 27 123 108 3 85 2 85 9 2 .304 .385 .502 .886 126
Alfonzo's game took another big step forward in 1999. After
spending the previous two seasons as the regular third baseman,
Alfonzo moved to second base last year and responded with a breakthrough
season at the plate and a fine season in the field. Along the
way, he had the single greatest hitting day in team history on
August 30th when he joined Ty Cobb as the only player ever to
collect six hits and three home runs in one game. It's strange
that the NL's two best hitting second basemen in 1999, Alfonzo
and the Diamondback's Jay Bell, were both playing the position
regularly for the first time.
Rey Ordonez, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 542 132 17 3 2 52 45 1 27 8 58 5 6 .244 .279 .297 .576 43
Prorated NYN 541 131 16 2 1 51 44 0 26 7 57 4 5 .242 .275 .285 .560 40
Actual NYN 520 134 24 2 1 49 60 1 49 12 59 8 4 .258 .319 .317 .636 53
He had the best year of his career at the plate in 1999, but
still has a long way to go before he's even an average hitting
shortstop. He feuded during the season with manager Bobby Valentine
over playing time while turning in perhaps his best performance
in the field in 1999. Error totals aren't usually a good indication
of fielding prowess, but the four errors charged against Ordonez
were impressive nonetheless. He's very popular with the fans in
New York, which will make replacing him difficult if a better
shortstop (one who can both field AND hit) ever comes onto the
scene.
Luis Lopez, ss/2b/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 90 22 4 0 1 11 8 1 5 1 19 1 1 .244 .292 .322 .614 8
Prorated NYN 112 27 4 0 1 13 9 1 6 1 23 1 1 .241 .286 .304 .589 9
Actual NYN 104 22 4 0 2 11 13 3 12 0 33 1 1 .212 .308 .308 .616 11
About the only time in 1999 that Lopez caught the public's
attention was when he got in a fistfight with Ordonez in early
September. The organization soured on Lopez during the year and
he was even left off the post-season roster, a move that gave
the Mets no adequate defensive replacement at short and forced
Rey Ordonez to bat (with predictable results) in several crucial
situations. Lopez was sent to the Brewers after the season for
pitcher Bill Pulsipher.
Robin Ventura, 3b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 514 131 25 3 19 70 75 1 66 12 88 0 1 .255 .338 .426 .765 76
Prorated NYN 588 150 28 3 21 80 85 1 75 13 100 0 1 .255 .338 .420 .758 85
Actual NYN 588 177 38 0 32 88 120 3 74 10 109 1 1 .301 .379 .529 .908 118
The Mets MVP in 1999, Ventura had the best season of his career.
We had anticipated his numbers to be hurt by Shea Stadium, but
he ended up hitting nearly as well at home as he did on the road.
When he hit two grand slams in a game on May 20th, he became the
first player in major league history to accomplish that twice,
having previously clubbed two grand slams in a game with the White
Sox in 1995. He was a pretty consistent run producer all year
long with monthly RBI totals of 20, 21, 21, 22, 20 and 16. He
played most of September with torn cartilage in his left knee
and had surgery on it and his shoulder following the season.
Bobby Bonilla, rf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 476 127 24 3 15 63 73 3 56 6 78 2 3 .267 .342 .424 .766 68
Prorated NYN 123 32 6 0 3 16 18 0 14 1 20 0 0 .260 .331 .382 .713 15
Actual NYN 119 19 5 0 4 12 18 1 19 1 16 0 1 .160 .277 .303 .579 10
Bonilla came to New York during the off-season when the Mets
and Dodgers exchanged problem players. Los Angeles took Mel Rojas
off of New York's hands and the Mets returned the favor by taking
Bonilla. It was hard to imagine the team making a serious playoff
run in 1999 with Bonilla playing much of a role in their offense.
As it was, he spent most of the season on the sidelines with knee
problems and did absolutely nothing while he was active. One of
mysteries of last year was why Bonilla was put on the post-season
roster. He couldn't hit, couldn't field, and was on the outs with
the manager. He made statements during the off-season demanding
a more prominent role in 2000, but team officials cut their losses
and released him instead.
Roger Cedeno, rf/cf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 148 39 7 2 2 21 11 1 19 1 32 6 2 .264 .349 .378 .727 21
Prorated NYN 454 119 21 6 6 64 33 3 58 3 98 18 6 .262 .347 .374 .722 65
Actual NYN 453 142 23 4 4 90 36 3 60 3 100 66 17 .313 .396 .408 .804 84
Another surprise performer in 1999, Cedeno seemed to be a natural
to settle in for an extended stay as the Mets leadoff hitter.
Instead, he was sent to the Astros in December as part of the
Mike Hampton deal. He doesn't seem to have good instincts in the
outfield and frequently breaks the wrong way on the ball. Fortunately,
he has the speed to outrun many of his mistakes.
Brian McRae, cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 525 129 31 5 15 75 55 6 66 3 79 18 9 .246 .334 .410 .744 75
Prorated NYN 299 73 17 2 8 42 31 3 37 1 44 10 5 .244 .331 .395 .726 41
Actual NYN 298 66 12 1 8 35 36 5 39 1 57 2 6 .221 .320 .349 .669 33
Prorated Col 23 5 1 0 0 3 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .217 .280 .261 .541 2
Actual Col 23 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 7 0 0 .261 .370 .478 .849 4
Prorated Tor 87 21 5 0 2 12 9 1 11 0 13 3 1 .241 .333 .368 .701 11
Actual Tor 82 16 3 1 3 11 11 2 16 1 22 0 1 .195 .340 .366 .706 11
Prorated Tot 410 100 24 3 11 58 42 4 51 2 61 14 7 .244 .331 .398 .729 56
Actual Tot 403 88 17 2 12 47 48 9 57 2 86 2 7 .218 .327 .360 .687 48
We weren't too optimistic about McRae's prospects for 1999.
He failed to meet even those, however, then complained about his
lack of playing time and was sent to Colorado in the Hamilton
trade. Once a pretty good baserunner, McRae was successful on
only 2 of his 9 attempts last year. I would be very surprised
if he comes close to getting 400 at-bats again next season.
Darryl Hamilton, cf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 631 192 34 5 5 107 55 2 74 1 79 15 9 .304 .377 .398 .775 99
Prorated Col 331 100 17 2 2 56 28 1 38 0 41 7 4 .302 .374 .384 .757 50
Actual Col 337 102 11 3 4 63 24 1 38 0 21 4 5 .303 .374 .389 .763 49
Prorated NYN 165 50 8 1 1 28 14 0 19 0 20 3 2 .303 .373 .382 .755 24
Actual NYN 168 57 8 1 5 19 21 1 19 0 18 2 3 .339 .410 .488 .898 34
Prorated Tot 496 151 26 3 3 84 43 1 58 0 62 11 7 .304 .376 .387 .763 76
Actual Tot 505 159 19 4 9 82 45 2 57 0 39 6 8 .315 .386 .422 .808 83
He came to New York at the end of July along with Chuck McElroy
in a trade for Brian McRae and two minor leaguers. He hit very
well after coming over from Colorado, especially when you consider
that his projected numbers assumed he'd be playing in Coors Field.
Shawon Dunston, cf/lf/rf/1b/ss/3b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 70 18 4 1 1 9 7 1 2 0 10 3 1 .257 .284 .386 .669 8
Prorated StL 147 37 8 2 2 18 14 2 4 0 21 6 2 .252 .277 .374 .652 15
Actual StL 150 46 5 2 5 23 25 3 2 0 23 6 3 .307 .327 .467 .794 21
Prorated NYN 90 23 5 1 1 11 9 1 2 0 12 3 1 .256 .277 .367 .643 9
Actual NYN 93 32 6 1 0 12 16 2 0 0 16 4 1 .344 .354 .430 .784 13
Prorated Tot 238 61 13 3 3 30 23 3 6 0 34 10 3 .256 .280 .374 .654 25
Actual Tot 243 78 11 3 5 35 41 5 2 0 39 10 4 .321 .337 .453 .790 34
The Mets picked him up at from the Cardinals at the end of
July for Craig Paquette. His .321 average was a career high (ignoring
a 4 for 10 season in 1993), but vastly overstates his worth as
a hitter. He's never walked much at all, but his total of two
walks in 255 trips to the plate in 1999 was low even for him.
Because the Mets were pretty set in the infield, Dunston saw most
of his action for New York in the outfield, where he was dreadful.
I'm not sure if it was simply a case of Valentine being out-managed
(or over-managing) but it sure seemed as if Dunston was in the
field in a lot of crucial late-inning situations for New York.
Rickey Henderson, lf, age 40
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 523 120 16 1 10 98 44 7 125 1 110 58 13 .229 .384 .321 .705 82
Prorated NYN 418 95 12 0 7 78 35 5 99 0 87 46 10 .227 .380 .306 .687 62
Actual NYN 438 138 30 0 12 89 42 2 82 1 82 37 14 .315 .423 .466 .889 96
Henderson turned 40 before the season began and in the three
previous years had hit a combined .241. He was a better player
than his average indicated, with exactly as many walks (340) as
hits during that span and a 80% success rate on the base-paths.
Still, it would be an understatement to say that his .315 batting
average was surprise last year. While he hit much better than
anticipated, he looked every bit of his forty years in the outfield
1999 and was a liability on the bases. Sure, he stole 37 bases,
but he was caught 14 times and picked off on another five occasions.
In all of baseball only two runners (Cedeno and Womack) were picked
off more often than Henderson last year. He missed two weeks in
April with a sprained knee.
Benny Agbayani, lf/rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 66 15 3 0 1 8 7 1 7 0 13 3 1 .227 .307 .318 .625 7
Prorated NYN 276 62 12 0 4 33 29 4 29 0 54 12 4 .225 .304 .312 .615 27
Actual NYN 276 79 18 3 14 42 42 3 32 4 60 6 4 .286 .363 .525 .888 51
We didn't expect him to see much action in a crowded outfield
last year. He was called up when Henderson went on the DL and
responded with an extremely hot first month. Since 1974, here
are the players with the highest slugging percentage through the
first 90 at-bats of their career:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR SPC
Shane Spencer 90 32 7 0 11 .800
Benny Agbayani 90 32 2 2 10 .756
Dave Hostetler 90 26 3 2 11 .733
Alvin Davis 90 30 6 1 9 .722
Gregg Jefferies 90 33 8 2 6 .700
You might not remember Dave Hostetler, and there's a good chance
that fifteen years from now you might not remember Shane Spencer
or Benny Agbayani either. Considering that Agbayani had never
hit more than 11 home runs in a season in the minors, his power
display was not expected, and it didn't last. He would bat .244
with only four home runs over the last three and a half months
of the season.
Key Pitchers
The pitching staff allowed slightly more runs than anticipated
in 1999. Most of this was due to injuries to Bobby Jones and Rick
Reed as well as an off-season by Al Leiter. Kenny Rogers was a
valuable mid-season pick-up (at least until the playoffs), but
the real strength of this team was its bullpen.
Their starters went a long time (until August 15th) without
any complete games, but got two complete game shutouts (by Al
Leiter and Rick Reed) in their last three games of the season.
After the addition of Rogers at the end of July, the Mets went
to a six-man rotation for much of the rest of the year.
Al Leiter, starter, age 33 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.35 32 32 15 9 0 210 178 13 99 189 .231 .670
Prorated NYN 3.35 33 33 15 9 0 216 183 13 102 195 .231 .670
Actual NYN 4.23 32 32 13 12 0 213 209 19 93 162 .262 .743
Leiter got off to a bad start in 1999 and by the end of May
had a 2-5 record to go with a 6.39 ERA. He missed a start in May
with a sprained knee and the knee bothered him the rest of the
year. Despite that, he pitched pretty well over the last three
months of the season, including a 5-0 mark in June, when he was
named the NL pitcher of the month, and a brilliant two-hit shutout
against the Reds in the playoff game.
His ERAs the last four years have been: 2.93, 4.34, 2.47 and
4.23, a pattern that bodes well for next season, especially if
his off-season knee surgery is a success.
Rick Reed, starter, age 34
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.72 32 32 11 11 0 206 203 26 33 135 .259 .706
Prorated NYN 3.72 25 25 8 8 0 157 155 20 25 103 .259 .706
Actual NYN 4.58 26 26 11 5 0 149 163 23 47 104 .281 .809
He went on the DL in April with a strained achilles tendon
and also missed a month later in the season with a strained ligament.
His control was poorer than it's been since coming to the Mets
and he gave up as many walks in his first 80 innings as he had
all of the previous season.
The Mets are sure hoping that his injuries were responsible
for his off-year. Since bursting onto the scene in 1997, his ERAs
have gone from 2.89 to 3.48 to 4.58 -- not exactly the trend you
want to see in a 34 year-old pitcher. His final outing of the
season, however, was the best of his career, a three-hit shutout
of the Pirates with 12 strikeouts.
Bobby Jones, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.14 32 32 11 11 0 198 199 25 57 121 .263 .735
Prorated NYN 4.14 10 10 3 3 0 60 61 8 17 37 .263 .735
Actual NYN 5.61 12 9 3 3 0 59 69 3 11 31 .295 .777
Rotator cuff problems ripped the heart out of Jones' season,
putting him on the DL from May 22nd until September 14th. He didn't
pitch as badly as his ERA indicated last year, but allowed his
hits in bunches, giving up 20 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in
his last three starts before going on the DL.
Orel Hershiser, starter, age 40
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 5.05 27 27 8 10 0 160 179 20 59 88 .287 .810
Prorated NYN 5.05 30 30 9 11 0 177 198 22 65 97 .287 .810
Actual NYN 4.58 32 32 13 12 0 179 175 14 77 89 .260 .742
He replaced Nomo in the starting rotation at the beginning
of the season and the two pitchers ended up with very similar
seasons:
Name ERA IP H HR BB K
Hershiser 4.58 179 175 14 77 89
Nomo 4.54 176 173 27 78 161
Apart from the home runs allowed and strikeouts, these seasons
are almost identical. A free agent after the season, Hershiser
has signed to pitch for the Dodgers in 2000.
Masato Yoshii, starter, age 34
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.42 32 32 10 12 0 196 200 26 59 133 .265 .761
Prorated NYN 4.42 28 28 9 10 0 170 174 23 51 116 .265 .761
Actual NYN 4.40 31 29 12 8 0 174 168 25 58 105 .260 .790
With the exception of a few more home runs and a slightly higher
ERA, Yoshii pretty much did in 1999 what he had the year before
with the Mets. He was rumored to be heading to the bullpen after
the Rogers deal, but instead turned into the Mets' best pitcher
down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.61 ERA after August 13th.
He was traded after the season to the Rockies (ouch!) for pitchers
Lariel Gonzalez and Bobby Jones the Younger.
Octavio Dotel, starter, age 23
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.00 3 3 1 1 0 18 17 2 8 20 .250 .736
Prorated NYN 4.00 14 14 5 5 0 85 80 9 38 94 .250 .736
Actual NYN 5.38 19 14 8 3 0 85 69 12 49 85 .226 .766
By my calculations (weighting each pitcher's age by their innings
pitched), the Mets in 1999 had the oldest pitching staff in the
majors and the seventh oldest in major league history. Were it
not for the 85 innings pitched by Octavio Dotel (as well as the
injury to John Franco), the Mets could have challenged the 1935
Boston Braves for the oldest staff of all time. Since Jason Isringhausen,
Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher failed to live up to their promise
earlier in the decade, the Mets' front office hasn't exactly trusted
their young arms.
Dotel started the season in the minors before being recalled
in June after he pitched a one-hitter with 17 strikeouts in the
minors. His 17 strikeouts was the most by a AAA pitcher during
the 1990s. He got sent down a couple of weeks later, recalled
two weeks after that and was dropped from the rotation in September
to make room for the returning Bobby Jones. It would be an understatement
to say he was inconsistent. In one five game stretch, he had four
outings in which he pitched seven innings while allowing a single
run; in his other start, he got blasted for nine runs in only
two innings. He was sent to Houston after the season in the Mike
Hampton deal.
Kenny Rogers, starter, age 34
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.21 32 32 12 12 0 210 213 21 77 120 .266 .737
Prorated Oak 4.21 19 19 7 7 0 124 126 12 45 71 .266 .737
Actual Oak 4.30 19 19 5 3 0 119 135 8 41 68 .288 .740
Prorated NYN 4.21 11 11 4 4 0 74 75 7 27 42 .266 .737
Actual NYN 4.03 12 12 5 1 0 76 71 8 28 58 .253 .723
Prorated Tot 4.21 30 30 11 11 0 198 201 20 73 113 .266 .737
Actual Tot 4.19 31 31 10 4 0 195 206 16 69 126 .275 .734
If nothing else, Kenny Rogers must not be superstitious. Otherwise,
he would never have agreed to leave Oakland, where he had gone
15-0 since arriving a year and a half earlier. His home winning
streak now stands at 18 games with three different teams (Yankees,
A's and Mets). He'll try to continue it with his fourth team in
2000. A free agent after the season because he was not offered
arbitration by the Mets, Rogers recently signed with the Rangers.
John Franco, closer/setup, age 38
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.16 70 0 4 6 33 74 73 5 29 65 .261 .693
Prorated NYN 3.16 40 0 2 3 19 43 42 3 17 38 .261 .693
Actual NYN 2.88 46 0 0 2 19 41 40 1 19 41 .255 .685
There's an unwritten rule in baseball that a player is not
supposed to lose his job due to an injury, that assuming he recovers,
his job will be waiting for him when he returns. Well, that rule
was broken in 1999. Franco was 19 of 20 in save opportunities
last year when Bobby Valentine had him start the ninth inning
of the July 2nd contest with the Braves. The Mets were already
trailing 12-0, but Franco hadn't pitched in three days and his
manager wanted to get him some work. Unfortunately, Franco strained
the tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand in that game
and would be out for more than two months. While he was gone,
Armando Benitez pitched brilliantly, taking over the closer's
job and relegating Franco to a setup role when he returned in
September. He posted a 0.96 ERA the last month, but that's a little
deceiving, given that he allowed allowed 11 hits and 5 walks in
9 1/3 innings.
Armando Benitez, setup/closer, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 2.39 70 0 5 5 3 75 48 7 43 105 .182 .600
Prorated NYN 2.39 69 0 5 5 3 75 48 7 43 104 .182 .600
Actual NYN 1.85 77 0 4 3 22 78 40 4 41 128 .148 .496
We expected Benitez to be the class of the Mets bullpen in
1999 and ended up underestimating him. He had a brief rough stretch
at the end of July and beginning of August, but finished the year
on a roll. His record over his last 23 games:
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K
0.77 23 0 3 1 11 23 11 0 10 39
Dennis Cook, middle relief, age 36
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.36 70 0 5 3 1 72 70 5 29 80 .254 .706
Prorated NYN 3.36 58 0 4 2 1 60 58 4 24 67 .254 .706
Actual NYN 3.86 71 0 10 5 3 63 50 11 27 68 .216 .723
In the space of nine innings in April and early May, Dennis
Cook picked up five victories. He couldn't keep up that pace for
the rest of the season, but still finished with a career high
in victories. He allowed fewer base runners than anticipated but
problems with the long-ball accounted for a higher than expected
ERA. He had pitched 38 games by July 4th and had a 2.13 ERA. He
wore down after that, finishing with 6.48 ERA over his last 33
games.
Turk Wendell, middle relief, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG
Projection NYN 3.27 53 0 5 3 0 74 64 6 36 60 .233 .705
Prorated NYN 3.27 62 0 6 3 0 86 74 7 42 70 .233 .705
Actual NYN 3.05 80 0 5 4 3 86 80 9 37 77 .245 .703
Wendell set a Mets' record by pitching in 80 games last year.
The previous record holder, Jeff Innis, who pitched in 76 games
in 1992, dropped down to number three on the list, as Armando
Benitez also topped the previous mark. Despite pitching so much,
Wendell probably wished he had pitched even more. He was given
six days off from August 24th to 31st, and proceeded to lose three
of his next four outings, allowing 8 runs in only 3 innings. He
bounced back after that and gave only one more earned run in his
last 12 games.
Billy Taylor, middle relief, age 37
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG
Projection Oak 3.67 70 0 4 6 29 74 72 6 26 66 .257 .715
Prorated Oak 3.67 42 0 2 4 17 44 43 4 16 40 .257 .715
Actual Oak 3.98 43 0 1 5 26 43 48 3 14 38 .287 .747
Prorated NYN 3.67 15 0 1 1 6 16 16 1 6 14 .257 .715
Actual NYN 8.10 18 0 0 1 0 13 20 2 9 14 .345 1.002
Prorated Tot 3.67 57 0 3 5 24 60 59 5 21 54 .257 .715
Actual Tot 4.95 61 0 1 6 26 56 68 5 23 52 .302 .813
The Mets got him from Oakland at the end of July for Jason
Isringhausen and Greg McMichael in a move that simply didn't work
out. Taylor was 32 before he made it to the big leagues and 34
before he became the A's closer for the first time. He saved his
100th major league game the day before he was traded to the Mets
and it could very well have been his last. He was released by
New York after the season.
Outlook
After teasing New York fans with the prospect of a deal for
Alex Rodriguez and then coming within an okay from Junior of bringing
Ken Griffey east, Mets' GM Steve Phillips was finally able to
complete a blockbuster deal two days before Christmas when he
traded Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno to the Astros for 22-game
winner Mike Hampton and Derek Bell.
While the move should strengthen the Mets starting rotation,
it dramatically weakens their outfield, and for the second year
in a row, the Mets will enter the season with the potential to
field the worst outfield in the majors. Rickey Henderson will
be a year older and not likely to hit over .300 again. If his
defense and base-running continue to erode, he could very well
hit .300 and still hurt the team. If he reverts back to hitting
.240, forget it. Derek Bell was perhaps the worst outfielder in
all of baseball last year, and while Darryl Hamilton should be
an improvement over Brian McRae in center, he will be 35 years old
next season and is not likely to play as well as he did over the
second half of 1999.
It's hard to imagine their infield getting much better next
year. Free-agent acquisition Todd Zeile should be much worse at
first, both offensively and defensively, than the departed John
Olerud. Robin Ventura is coming off of a career year and not likely
to do much better in 2000. The same can not be said, however,
for Edgardo Alfonzo. As good as he played last season, he could
conceivably take his game to an even higher level next year. He'll
be only 26 at the start of 2000 and the truth is we still don't
know how good he can become.
The pitching staff will need to be much better next year. Assuming
they stay healthy, a rotation of Hampton, Leiter, Reed, the Joneses,
and/or Pulsipher, together with relievers like Benitez, Wendell
and Franco, could give New York one of the best staffs in all
of the National League. It will have to if the Mets are to overcome
their offensive weaknesses and contend for another play-off spot
in 2000.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
