This article takes a look at how the Philadelphia Phillies
did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For
an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 700 841
Runs allowed 740 846
Run Margin -40 -5
Wins 78 77
Pythagorean wins 77 81
Placement 3rd 3rd
The Phillies were actually in the playoff picture for most
of the first half of the season. Then the team began to fall apart
. . . literally. Closer-to-be Jeff Brantley, who was on the disabled
list early in the year, returned in May, stuck around for a week,
and then was put back on for the remainder of the season. Number
three starter Carlton Loewer went on the DL a few weeks later.
Shortstop Desi Relaford was next. An already crippled team was
dealt the crushing blow when ace pitcher Curt Schilling developed
shoulder problems and did not pitch after late July. Star third
baseman Scott Rolen missed almost 50 games with back problems
although he never went on the disabled list. A shaky bullpen lost
top lefty Yorkis Perez and righty Steve Montgomery.
The Phillies were 57-47 at the end of the July and still hanging
in there. But with the rash of injuries, the Phils could only
muster a 20-38 record the rest of the way. Those injuries highlighted
two of the biggest problems that the Phillies had -- a lack of
depth and a poor bullpen. The bench was comprised almost entirely
of utility infielders. A couple, particularly Alex Arias, were
effective, but there is a reason why utility infielders are not
major league starters.
The highlight for the bullpen came after the season with the
acquisition of closer Mike Jackson. The Phillies had fewer saves
than any other team in the majors, and it's likely that the shaky
relief corps contributed to Curt Schilling's injury, which occurred
in the wake of several high-pitch-count outings in which he went
the distance rather than trust a lead to the pen.
The offense ended up carrying the team. Mike Lieberthal and
Bobby Abreu had breakout seasons that established them as premiere
players at their positions. Doug Glanville showed that he can
be a successful leadoff hitter for a full season and Rico Brogna
knocked in 100 runs and displayed his Gold Glove caliber defensive
skills. Despite his injuries, Rolen put up good numbers for the
Phils.
The Phillies are an exciting team to watch. They have a lot
of young stars, both offensively and defensively. While only Lieberthal
won a Gold Glove in 1999, Rolen is a past winner and Brogna and
Glanville are deserving. The Phils needed strong defense with
the pitching staff that they had last year, and they will need
arms to go with the bats if they want to be contenders.
Key Position Players
Breakout seasons were the rule for the Phillies in 1999. Bobby
Abreu showed that he is one of the top hitters in the National
League in just his second full season. Catcher Mike Lieberthal
became the power threat the Phils so desperately have needed for
the last few seasons. Doug Glanville demonstrated that the second
half of 1998 was an aberration and that he can be a .300 hitter
for an entire season. Scott Rolen, Rico Brogna, and Ron Gant also
put up solid numbers.
Offensively and defensively, however, the Phils are weakest
at the middle infield positions. Shortstop Desi Relaford and second
baseman Marlon Anderson are below average at their positions and
both have defensive flaws. Relaford suffers from mental lapses
and an erratic arm while Anderson has difficulties turning the
double play.
The Phillies lineup also is limited by the managing of Terry
Francona. Francona is an astute handler of young talent but has
problems with his lineup construction. Most notable were his use
of Bobby Abreu, who had the third highest batting average and
on base percentage in the National League, in the sixth position
in the batting order and his utilization of Rico Brogna, one of
the worst producing first basemen, in the cleanup spot. Rookie
Marlon Anderson and his .292 OBP were in the #2 spot in the order
for most of the season as well. How many runs Francona cost the
team is undeterminable but one has to think that better application
of the players' abilities is a requirement for the Phils to be
successful down the road.
Mike Lieberthal, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 475 116 24 2 16 59 72 7 35 1 72 3 3 .244 .301 .404 .705 58
Prorated Phi 519 126 26 2 17 64 78 7 38 1 78 3 3 .243 .299 .399 .698 62
Actual Phi 510 153 33 1 31 84 96 11 44 7 86 0 0 .300 .363 .551 .914 100
Until 1999, Lieberthal was a dead pull hitter. Last season,
however, Lieberthal realized that he could be successful going
with the pitch and taking it the other way. The result was an
offensive season that put him in the top echelon of catchers.
As is often the case, the sudden increase in his hitting output
brought attention to his already impressive defensive skills.
Lieberthal has a strong arm and rarely makes errors. His caught
stealing percentage last season was deceptively poor in that few
of the Phillies pitchers have any ability in holding baserunners
on once they reach first.
Gary Bennett, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 70 16 3 0 2 6 8 0 4 0 10 0 0 .229 .267 .357 .624 6
Prorated Phi 87 20 3 0 2 7 10 0 5 0 12 0 0 .230 .269 .333 .602 8
Actual Phi 88 24 4 0 1 7 21 0 4 0 11 0 0 .273 .298 .352 .650 7
A solid number two catcher. Bennett calls a good game and outside
of a low walk rate and an occasional throwing error, does little
to hurt the team offensively or defensively. Most of the time
he was used to give Lieberthal rest but he got a stretch in July
where he was the everyday catcher while Lieberthal was out with
a sore elbow.
Bobby Estalella, c, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 88 20 5 0 5 12 14 1 12 0 21 0 0 .227 .324 .455 .778 13
Prorated Phi 18 4 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 0 4 0 0 .222 .300 .444 .744 2
Actual Phi 18 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 4 0 7 0 1 .167 .318 .167 .485 1
The Phillies former catcher of the future. Estalella was traded
to the Giants for pitcher Chris Brock during the offseason as
the Phils sought to bolster their rotation. Estalella spent 1999
recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder.
When he wasn't on the disabled list, he was in the minors rehabilitating
except for a pair of brief callups. Before his injury, Estalella
was a decent power hitter who helped his offense by walking a
good deal. He was very good defensively, but his repaired shoulder
will be tested by major league runners.
Tom Prince, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 65 15 4 0 1 9 8 2 6 1 14 0 0 .231 .315 .338 .654 8
Prorated Phi 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 0
Actual Phi 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .167 .286 .167 .452 0
The veteran reserve catcher missed the majority of the season
with torn wrist ligaments resulting from a checked swing in April.
Rico Brogna, 1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 620 160 39 1 21 77 100 0 48 7 131 8 6 .258 .307 .426 .733 79
Prorated Phi 621 160 39 1 21 77 100 0 48 7 131 8 6 .258 .307 .425 .732 79
Actual Phi 619 172 29 4 24 90 102 2 54 7 132 8 5 .278 .336 .454 .790 91
Brogna should have won the Gold Glove award in 1999. Brogna
has great range and is especially good at stopping balls down
the line. Maybe more important are the number of errant throws
from the left side of the infield that he is able to dig out of
the dirt. Overall, he is far and away the best defensive first
baseman in the majors.
But first basemen are supposed to hit, and his offensive contributions
leave a lot to be desired. Brogna did drive in 100 runs for the
second year in a row, but that has been primarily a function of
having Doug Glanville et al batting ahead of him. His .790 OPS
was the lowest in the National League among everyday first basemen.
On the plus side, he improved dramatically against left-handed
pitchers, actually posting a higher slugging percentage against
them than he did against righties.
He is fan favorite in Philadelphia and enjoyable to watch,
but if the Phillies want to be a contender, Francona needs to
find someone who will be more successful in the cleanup position
in the lineup.
[TT: Jon sees Brogna play a lot more than I do, and I respect
his opinion about Brogna's defense. In the interest of full disclosure,
however, I must point out that our defensive analysis showed that
John Olerud was slightly better than Brogna in 1999. Either of
these two would have been a much better Gold Glove choice than
J. T. Snow, who has for years posted superior fielding percentages
while reaching many fewer batted balls than several others at
his position.]
Marlon Anderson, 2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 539 136 23 7 9 74 60 6 16 1 69 20 9 .252 .280 .371 .651 55
Prorated Phi 456 115 19 5 7 62 50 5 13 0 58 16 7 .252 .279 .362 .641 45
Actual Phi 452 114 26 4 5 48 54 2 24 1 61 13 2 .252 .292 .361 .652 49
The Phillies act as if Anderson's season was somewhat of a
disappointment, which is just another example of supposedly informed
people taking things out of context. In 1998, Anderson hit .306
at AAA and .326 in a brief September callup. Even though these
were his best batting averages of his minor-league career, the
Phils seemed to think that they had a major-league .300 hitter
on their hands. If they had examined his season in the context
of his career and where he played, they would have been expecting
the 1999 season that Anderson produced.
In the field, Anderson performed admirably for a first year
player, but he is perceived as less than adequate. He does not
turn the double play well, but he covers ground pretty well and
was at the league average in fielding percentage. The reality
is that Marlon Anderson will probably not develop into much more
than an average second baseman with above average speed. But if
he is the weak link in the lineup, as he might well be considered
right now, it will be enough for the Phils to succeed.
[TT: Anderson was replaced defensively (usually by David Doster)
more often than any other player in the majors in 1999.]
David Doster, 2b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 69 17 4 0 2 9 10 1 4 0 10 1 1 .246 .293 .391 .685 8
Prorated Phi 103 25 5 0 2 13 14 1 5 0 14 1 1 .243 .282 .350 .631 10
Actual Phi 97 19 2 0 3 9 10 0 12 1 23 1 0 .196 .282 .309 .591 9
Doster's first full year at the major league level was spent
in the field, an inning at a time. Doster played second base 70
times in games he did not start. His 99 appearances exceeded his
at bats by two. The role Doster played is a pretty specific one
and not a very productive way for a roster spot to be filled.
With the wealth of utility players the Philles have, Doster will
find it difficult to spend a second straight year in The Show.
Torey Lovullo, 2b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 66 15 3 0 2 9 9 0 8 0 9 0 0 .227 .307 .364 .670 8
Prorated Phi 36 8 1 0 1 4 4 0 4 0 4 0 0 .222 .300 .333 .633 4
Actual Phi 38 8 0 0 2 3 5 0 3 0 11 0 0 .211 .268 .368 .637 4
Lovullo set a career high for home runs at AAA in 1999. The
last two seasons have been the best of his career. He has never
been a major league hitter but probably has a few seasons left
in him as a minor leaguer.
Scott Rolen, 3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 548 156 39 2 30 98 93 11 78 4 123 13 6 .285 .381 .527 .908 115
Prorated Phi 423 120 30 1 23 75 71 8 60 3 95 10 4 .284 .380 .522 .902 88
Actual Phi 421 113 28 1 26 74 77 3 67 2 114 12 2 .268 .368 .525 .893 86
Another perceived disappointment by the Phillies. It was indeed
a disappointment from the perspective of playing time as Rolen
missed almost 50 games because of a torn ligament in his back
and the death of his grandfather. Even with the setbacks, Rolen
turned in a good season. His back troubles did not seem to limit
him much in the field. Rolen is the leader of this team and without
a full productive season from him, the Philles hopes for contention
are non-existent.
Kevin Jordan, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 72 19 4 0 1 7 8 0 2 0 10 0 0 .264 .280 .361 .641 7
Prorated Phi 364 96 20 0 5 35 40 0 10 0 50 0 0 .264 .280 .360 .640 34
Actual Phi 347 99 17 3 4 36 51 6 24 1 34 0 0 .285 .339 .386 .726 44
Jordan saw much more playing time than anyone had hoped or
probably wanted. He was primarily a platoon at second base to
begin the season but filled in for Rolen in his prolonged absence
and played some first base as well. His production makes him a
utility player at best, something the Phils have in abundance.
Alex Arias, ss, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 92 25 5 0 1 11 10 1 8 1 12 1 0 .272 .337 .359 .695 11
Prorated Phi 351 95 19 0 3 42 38 3 30 3 45 3 0 .271 .333 .350 .684 42
Actual Phi 347 105 20 1 4 43 48 4 36 6 31 2 2 .303 .373 .401 .773 51
A career year for Arias was the result of an injury to Desi
Relaford. With Relaford out, Arias was given an opportunity to
play shortstop and he made the most of it. He can also play the
other infield positions and will likely be used as the main utility
infielder in 2000.
Desi Relaford, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 559 139 28 2 6 57 48 4 37 2 90 17 7 .249 .297 .338 .635 57
Prorated Phi 219 54 11 0 2 22 18 1 14 0 35 6 2 .247 .292 .324 .617 21
Actual Phi 211 51 11 2 1 31 26 6 19 2 34 4 3 .242 .322 .327 .649 23
Even before his season ended with a torn wrist ligament, Relaford
was hampered by injury problems. A sore quadriceps plagued him
from spring training on and played a part in his low steal total.
The Phillies hope he can contribute offensively and become more
consistent in the field. He was benched early in the season after
he made several mental errors.
Between him and Rolen, the Phillies have the strongest armed
left side of the infield around. Relaford's arm is very erratic
and he likes to showcase it a lot, taking a little time to set
up before releasing. If Relaford can get his head in the game,
his defense is good enough to make him a legitimate no-hit, good-field
shortstop.
Ron Gant, lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 528 123 24 3 30 80 83 2 68 3 144 13 3 .233 .322 .460 .782 82
Prorated Phi 532 124 24 3 30 80 83 2 68 3 145 13 3 .233 .321 .459 .780 82
Actual Phi 516 134 27 5 17 107 77 1 85 0 112 13 3 .260 .364 .430 .794 88
The 1999 winner of the Phillies' Guy Who Will Provide an Offensive
Spark Annual Talent Search. Like previous winners (Zeile, Incaviglia,
Jefferies), Gant did not live up to the title. Gant is a notorious
slow starter, but his 1999 season included one of the worst Aprils
one can imagine (.132 BA, .235 SLG). For the first few weeks starting
pitcher Carlton Loewer had more hits. Gant did set a career high
in walks, which helped him score over 100 runs. With prospect
Pat Burrell waiting in the wings, another slow start may cost
Gant his job.
Kevin Sefcik, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 96 27 4 1 1 13 8 2 8 0 13 2 1 .281 .346 .375 .721 13
Prorated Phi 213 59 8 2 2 28 17 4 17 0 28 4 2 .277 .339 .362 .700 27
Actual Phi 209 58 15 3 1 28 11 1 29 0 24 9 4 .278 .368 .392 .761 32
Sefcik was one of the many utility players on the Phils roster
in 1999. He may be the best defensive infielder among the group,
but nonetheless went to Instructional League before the season
to learn to play the outfield. While not as good defensively as
he was in the infield, he was a better than many outfielders who
have spent their careers out in the grass. He's not a bad hitter,
though his lack of power is a liability for an outfielder. His
can-do attitude, hustle and versatility guarantee that he will
be around in 2000.
Rob Ducey, lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 86 22 7 1 2 11 8 3 7 1 21 1 1 .256 .330 .430 .760 12
Prorated Phi 201 51 16 2 4 25 18 7 16 2 49 2 2 .254 .327 .413 .740 28
Actual Phi 188 49 10 2 8 29 33 0 38 1 57 2 1 .261 .383 .463 .846 37
Ducey was the the fifth outfielder and the primary left-handed
hitter off the bench. He thrived in the role, having a higher
OPS than fellow outfielders Gant, Sefcik, and Glanville. The Phillies
have a recent history of falling in love with their fifth outfielder
(Ruben Amaro, Jr. was there for five years in the nineties) and
Ducey will likely continue in the role, especially since the Phils
have no other lefties.
Billy McMillon, minor league outfielder, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 68 16 4 0 2 9 9 0 6 0 15 1 0 .235 .293 .382 .676 8
McMillon is a career .300 hitter at AA and AAA with a .400
OBP and a .500 SLG. He was acquired from Florida in 1997 for Darren
Daulton and hit .292 for the Phils that season, but has not been
given a chance since. The Tigers, who desperately need outfield
depth, picked him up over the winter, and he may get a chance
to show what a good hitter he is.
Doug Glanville, cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 643 181 32 6 6 96 46 5 33 1 74 22 8 .281 .320 .378 .698 79
Prorated Phi 643 181 32 6 6 96 46 5 33 1 74 22 8 .281 .320 .378 .698 79
Actual Phi 628 204 38 6 11 101 73 6 48 1 82 34 2 .325 .376 .457 .833 116
Glanville has helped make the Phillies braintrust look like
geniuses. Acquired from the Cubs before the 1998 season, Glanville
has developed into a top leadoff hitter. Glanville had hit .300
for the Cubs in 1997 and did so for the first half of 1998 before
a horrible tailspin in the second half raised questions. Glanville
erased those doubts with a .325 year. And unlike '98, Glanville
was consistent, hitting .300 every month except April when he
hit .299.
Glanville is lightning quick and very smart, talents which
help him on the basepaths and in the outfield. He also has an
identifying physical characteristic that will help those of you
who have not seen the Phillies, assuming Fox actually televises
some of their games in 2000. The man never stops smiling. Glanville
could be 0 for 4, playing in freezing rain, and having just fouled
a pitch of his foot, and the camera will zoom in and you'd think
someone told him a funny story. Another one of the Phils who is
just fun to watch.
Wendell Magee, cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 69 16 4 0 2 9 9 0 5 0 13 1 1 .232 .280 .377 .657 7
Prorated Phi 13 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .231 .286 .231 .516 1
Actual Phi 14 5 1 0 2 4 5 0 1 0 4 0 0 .357 .400 .857 1.257 4
Magee has been a great power hitter in the minors but is off
and on in the majors. Magee could probably put up Ron Gant numbers
if given the chance to play every day. He is also an acrobatic
outfielder, but it will likely be Scranton fans, and not Philadelphians,
who watch him in 2000.
Bob Abreu, rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 583 158 29 5 15 77 78 1 87 11 144 22 12 .271 .364 .415 .780 93
Prorated Phi 569 154 28 4 14 75 76 0 84 10 140 21 11 .271 .363 .408 .771 88
Actual Phi 546 183 35 11 20 118 93 3 109 8 113 27 9 .335 .446 .549 .995 142
Kevin Stocker for Bob Abreu. That trade with the Tampa Devil
Rays may go down in Phillies history as one of the best deals
the club ever made.
Abreu blossomed in his second full season in the majors, finishing
third in the National League in hitting and on base percentage.
He was also fifth in runs, despite spending a third of the season
batting in the number six spot, and one of only three players
(with Steve Finley and Neifi Perez) in the majors to pull off
a triple double in doubles, triples, and homers.
Abreu also has one of the best arms in the outfield, which
is something considering he competes against the likes of Kotsay,
Guerrero, Sosa, and Walker. Abreu is already a star player and
has the ability to reach MVP status in the near future.
Key Pitchers
At this point, the Phils' rotation is questionable. Schilling
pitched well until his injury, but he probably won't be ready
for opening day. Paul Byrd made the All-Star team but then pitched
poorly after a scuffle with the Braves resulting from a hit by
pitch left him unwilling to pitch inside. Loewer struggled and
was dealt to the Padres in the offseason. Rookie Randy Wolf and
surprise starter Robert Person emerged as potential candidates
for the rotation but they could not make up for the horrific performances
of since departed Chad Ogea and Paul Spoljaric.
Curt Schilling, starter, age 32 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.18 32 32 16 10 0 238 208 22 57 269 .235 .660
Prorated Phi 3.18 25 25 12 8 0 182 159 17 44 206 .235 .660
Actual Phi 3.54 24 24 15 6 0 180 159 25 44 152 .237 .683
In 1997 and 1998, Curt Schilling pitched over 500 combined
innings and completed over 20 games, neither of which any other
pitcher in the majors managed to do during that time. He was posting
similar workhorse numbers when his shoulder gave out. Despite
missing 8-12 starts, Schilling finished second in the majors in
complete games in 1999. His desire to pitch and Francona's hesitation
to use the bullpen contributed greatly to his overuse. The Phillies
have relied on his ability to put up a lot of innings in the past
and with him being out until May and then pitching with a repaired
arm, it is doubtful they will get the 200 innings they need from
him.
Paul Byrd, starter, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.86 32 32 12 12 0 214 196 25 74 158 .243 .714
Prorated Phi 3.86 31 31 12 12 0 209 191 24 72 154 .243 .714
Actual Phi 4.60 32 32 15 11 0 200 205 34 70 106 .265 .794
Paul Byrd was sailing along nicely in 1999, going 11-5 with
a 3.94 in the first half and being selected to pitch in the All-Star
game. Early in the second half, Byrd, who relies on pitching inside
for success and led the majors in batters hit by pitch, plunked
Atlanta's Eddie Perez with a pitch. Perez charged the mound and
the result was a bench clearing brawl which ended with Byrd being
very shaken up.
For the rest of the season, Byrd was reluctant to come inside
with his pitches. He had a 5.61 ERA after the break and gave up
2.29 homers per nine innings in the second half, compared to 1.04
in the first. His baserunners per nine innings rose from 10.86
to 14.76.
In 2000, with Schilling's ability to pitch in question, Byrd
will need to step up his performance. Byrd is going to have to
get back to throwing inside, consequences be damned, if he and
the Phillies are to succeed.
Chad Ogea, starter, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.57 32 32 9 11 0 177 188 20 52 125 .272 .761
Prorated Phi 4.57 31 31 9 11 0 172 183 19 51 121 .272 .761
Actual Phi 5.63 36 28 6 12 0 168 192 36 61 77 .288 .880
On the one hand, Ogea had 11 quality starts. On the other hand,
he had 17 really awful, terrible, downright ugly starts. There
was little good that came out of Ogea's season. He was second
in homers allowed, third in doubles allowed, and added insult
to injury by continuing to ignore baserunners once they were on
base. Opposing basestealers had an 80% success rate, a rate that
would have been even higher if not for Lieberthal's arm.
Ogea signed with the Tigers in the offseason to a minor league
contract but was then drafted by the Devil Rays in the Rule V
draft. If you're a Chad Ogea fan, you can hope that the move to
Tampa might help him because he is closer to his home in Louisiana.
But there is really nothing to suggest that he will be better
than he was in 1999.
Robert Person, starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 5.22 70 0 2 7 16 69 73 14 37 56 .271 .863
Prorated Tor 5.22 13 0 0 1 3 13 14 3 7 11 .271 .863
Actual Tor 9.82 11 0 0 2 2 11 9 1 15 12 .231 .877
Prorated Phi 5.22 0 4 13 30 131 139 27 70 106 .271 .863
Actual Phi 4.27 31 22 10 5 0 137 130 23 70 127 .252 .801
Prorated Tot 5.22 0 4 15 33 144 153 29 77 117 .271 .863
Actual Tot 4.68 42 22 10 7 2 148 139 24 85 139 .250 .809
In six months, Person went from closer of the future with the
Blue Jays to starter of the future with the Phillies. Person,
a former Mets prospect, spent the majority of 1998 at AAA in the
closer role with the expectation that he would be the Jays' closer
in '99. He suffered a hamstring injury early in spring training
and began the season on the disabled list after missing almost
all of the pre-season. During that time, Billy Koch stepped into
the role and when a rusty Person returned and failed badly, Toronto
shipped him to Philly for Paul Spoljaric.
The Phillies, desperate for a fifth starter, moved him to the
rotation after nine relief appearances. The Phils started him
slowly, only allowing him to pitch four or five innings a start
but cut him loose later. Despite the innings restriction, half
of his 22 starts were considered quality starts. He was 8-3 with
a 3.80 ERA after the All-Star break. Person has trouble locating
his curve which resulted in a lot of walks but he showed that
he can get people out if he gets it close enough to the plate.
Randy Wolf, starter, age 22
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 6.23 3 3 1 1 0 17 22 3 6 14 .314 .892
Prorated Phi 6.23 21 21 7 7 0 123 156 21 42 99 .314 .892
Actual Phi 5.55 22 21 6 9 0 122 126 20 67 116 .266 .828
Wolf joined the rotation when Loewer was injured and looked
as if he might be a phenom, winning his first four decisions.
His inexperience caught up to him and he was only able to win
a pair of games the rest of the season. Wolf is a very talented
pitcher and will have a significant impact on the Phillies' fortunes
in 2000.
Carlton Loewer, starter, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.55 22 22 6 9 0 130 157 17 40 80 .303 .841
Prorated Phi 5.55 15 15 4 6 0 87 106 11 27 54 .303 .841
Actual Phi 5.12 20 13 2 6 0 90 100 9 26 48 .287 .751
Like Ogea, Loewer had a few shining moments in 1999. For the
most part he was mediocre before a stress fracture in his elbow
ended his season in June. He was dealt to the Padres over the
winter and proceeded to break his leg, falling out of a stand
while hunting. He will miss at least the first half of 2000 as
a result.
Anthony Shumaker, starter, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Phi 5.96 8 4 0 3 0 23 23 3 14 17 .261 .789
The Phillies did not have much pitching talent in the high
minors in 1999. Shumaker, who had been a reliever for most of
his professional career, began his first full season as a starter
at AA Reading where he posted a 1.78 ERA in ten starts. He wasn't
that good at AAA, however, having a 5.72 ERA. When Schilling went
on the disabled list, Shumaker was brought up since he was the
best available. Shumaker has good control although he did not
exhibit it at the major league level. He will get a chance to
be the fifth starter in 2000 with Schilling out.
Mike Grace, reliever/starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.87 27 4 2 4 0 54 68 6 17 29 .312 .853
Prorated Phi 5.87 30 5 2 5 0 61 77 7 19 33 .312 .853
Actual Phi 7.69 27 5 1 4 0 55 80 5 30 28 .346 .936
Grace has never been anything special and his time in Philadelphia
is finally over. The World Champion Yankees have signed him to
a contract.
Joe Grahe, reliever-starter, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Phi 3.86 13 5 1 4 0 33 40 1 17 16 .308 .808
He's still around? Grahe resurfaced in the majors for the first
time since 1995. He did pretty good against righties, holding
them to a .234 average. He's not suited for a specialist role
but isn't good enough against lefties to merit being used for
longer stints.
Ken Ryan, long relief, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.86 53 0 3 4 0 70 71 6 43 50 .265 .773
Prorated Phi 4.86 12 0 1 1 0 16 16 1 10 11 .265 .773
Actual Phi 6.32 15 0 1 2 0 16 16 2 11 9 .267 .764
1999 was a big year for the Phillies in that they finally awakened
to the fact that some of the players that they have had for years
are not that good. Ryan spent the majority of his fourth season
with the Phillies in AAA after a tough beginning of the season.
He has since moved on to Kansas City.
Steve Schrenk, long relief, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Phi 4.29 32 2 1 3 1 50 41 6 14 36 .223 .660
Schrenk finally made the majors after thirteen years in the
minor leagues, ten with the White Sox organization. He was tough
on righthanded hitters, limiting them to .194 batting average
and a .515 OPS and will given a chance to stay in the majors in
2000.
Amaury Telemaco, long relief, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 5.04 34 4 4 6 0 86 94 12 29 53 .279 .793
Prorated Ari 5.04 3 0 0 0 0 6 7 1 2 4 .279 .793
Actual Ari 7.50 5 0 1 0 0 6 7 2 6 2 .333 1.243
Prorated Phi 5.04 19 2 2 3 0 47 52 7 16 29 .279 .793
Actual Phi 5.55 44 0 3 0 0 47 45 8 20 41 .250 .763
Prorated Tot 5.04 21 3 3 4 0 54 59 8 18 33 .279 .793
Actual Tot 5.77 49 0 4 0 0 53 52 10 26 43 .259 .815
Any port in a storm. Telemaco was picked up from Arizona in
an effort to find someone who could get people out in relief.
He started fine but then got shelled. At 25, he has more of a
chance to stick around than some of the other guys the Phils used
in the pen.
Cliff Politte, mopup, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 6.63 4 4 1 2 0 19 25 3 8 14 .321 .905
Prorated Phi 6.63 4 4 1 2 0 18 24 3 8 14 .321 .905
Actual Phi 7.13 13 0 1 0 0 18 19 2 15 15 .275 .854
The wily Politte has posted some nice minor league numbers
since starting his career in 1996. He doesn't have tremendous
stuff and that has made getting major league hitters out difficult.
Philadelphia used him primarily in a mopup role but he will be
pushed into a more productive role in 2000.
Yorkis Perez, lefty specialist, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.63 70 0 4 3 1 72 68 6 37 66 .250 .725
Prorated Phi 3.63 30 0 2 1 0 31 30 3 16 29 .250 .725
Actual Phi 3.94 35 0 3 1 0 32 29 4 15 26 .244 .738
The veteran lefty had probably the best season of all the Phillies'
relievers before a sprained ligament in his elbow ended his season
in July. He refused a minor league assignment over the winter
and is a free agent. If healthy, he will find someone to pitch
for in 2000.
Scott Aldred, lefty specialist, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.75 53 0 1 2 0 33 46 7 15 19 .329 .963
Prorated Tam 6.75 38 0 1 1 0 24 33 5 11 14 .329 .963
Actual Tam 5.18 37 0 3 2 0 24 26 1 14 22 .274 .764
Prorated Phi 6.75 47 0 1 2 0 29 41 6 13 17 .329 .963
Actual Phi 3.90 29 0 1 1 1 32 33 1 15 19 .277 .715
Prorated Tot 6.75 85 0 2 3 0 53 73 11 24 30 .329 .963
Actual Tot 4.45 66 0 4 3 1 57 59 2 29 41 .276 .737
The Phils acquired the much traveled Aldred from Tampa to help
bolster the bullpen from the left side. Despite a .310 batting
average and a .400 OBP against left handers, the desperate Phillies
will use him in the same role in 2000.
Billy Brewer, lefty specialist, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.65 30 0 1 2 0 29 31 5 21 27 .279 .882
Prorated Phi 5.65 26 0 1 2 0 25 27 4 18 24 .279 .882
Actual Phi 7.01 25 0 1 1 2 26 30 4 14 28 .294 .866
Brewer showed phenomenal improvement from his 1998 season with
the Phillies. He reduced his ERA from 108.00 to a mere 7.01. Brewer
is supposed to get lefties out, a job he failed to do in 1999.
Lefties smacked him for a .325 average and a .932 OPS. He'll join
Tyler Green and Ken Ryan in Kansas City as part of the Great Philadelphia
Reclamation Project.
Sean Fesh, minor league reliever, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.55 23 0 2 2 0 30 32 3 18 24 .278 .822
Fesh is a rarity in that he is a left-handed submariner. One
would think that a team in desperate need of a lefty in the pen
might use someone like Fesh, who is a good pitcher in addition
to his oddball delivery.
Steve Montgomery, setup man, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.91 9 0 1 1 0 18 20 4 7 13 .278 .824
Prorated Phi 4.91 30 0 3 3 0 61 66 13 23 43 .278 .824
Actual Phi 3.34 53 0 1 5 3 65 54 10 31 55 .229 .708
Montgomery was slated as the closer at AAA Scranton-Wilkes
Barre until Brantley went down. He made the most of his opportunity
and will be part of the bullpen in 2000.
Wayne Gomes, closer, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.63 70 0 6 4 3 97 95 8 46 81 .260 .717
Prorated Phi 3.63 57 0 5 3 2 78 77 6 37 66 .260 .717
Actual Phi 4.26 73 0 5 5 19 74 70 5 56 58 .255 .730
A couple of years ago, at a Society for American Baseball Research
(SABR) gathering, a scout (not from the Phillies) named Gomes
as the most talented player he had ever scouted. He added that
Gomes was a better pitcher in college at Old Dominion than he
was as a professional.
I found that to be an intriguing comment, particularly when
you think of all the "professional" tutelage Gomes has
received in his career. But then you look at the Phillies farm
system, with the dearth of pitching prospects, and wonder if maybe
the instruction Philly pitchers get isn't all it is cracked up
to be.
Gomes was given the chance to close after arm troubles sidelined
Jeff Brantley for the season. He suffered from his usual control
problems and was largely ineffective. His control worsened as
the season progressed. He walked over a man an inning after the
All-Star break, causing the Phillies to lose confidence in him
and to go out and acquire Mike Jackson.
Jeff Brantley, closer, age 35
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.23 70 0 4 6 31 75 61 14 28 80 .219 .690
Prorated Phi 3.23 9 0 1 1 4 10 8 2 4 10 .219 .690
Actual Phi 5.19 10 0 1 2 5 9 5 0 8 11 .161 .519
Acquired from St. Louis during the 1998 offseason to be the
closer for the Phils. Brantley suffered from a torn labrum in
his pitching shoulder and missed the majority of the season. If
healthy, he will be used as a setup man for new closer Mike Jackson.
[TT: In the Dec 8/99 issue of Baseball Weekly, Brantley was
quoted as saying "Never in my wildest imagination did I think
they'd sign another closer. I'm not a setup man, and I'm not going
to be one." Perhaps this was said in the heat of the moment
and doesn't represent his feelings today, but if I was 35 and
coming off a lost season, I hope I'd be grateful for any meaningful
role on a team with playoff hopes.]
Outlook
The Phillies believe they can make a run at the playoffs and
made some strides in an effort to do so. They upped their payroll
budget and used the extra funds to bring in starter Andy Ashby
and closer Mike Jackson. They also brought in pitchers Chris Brock,
Carlos Reyes, and Mark Brownson in an effort to provide some depth
to the pitching staff that their minor-league system cannot offer.
The one prospect the Phillies do have, Pat Burrell, will find
his way into the lineup before the season is out. Primarily a
first baseman, the Phils have been using him in left field in
the minors as they feel Rico Brogna is entrenched at the right
corner. Burrell will be a powerful presence in the lineup, and
if Mike Lieberthal and Bobby Abreu can repeat their seasons of
1999, the lineup will be a potent one.
In the end, however, the Phillies status as contenders will
be determined by how well starting pitchers Curt Schilling and
Paul Byrd fare. Schilling has the mindset that he will be ready
for spring training. Schilling's focus and dedication are incomparable
but they were not enough to overcome the shoulder problems he
experienced in 1999. If mental power were all it took to be a
major leaguer, Uri Geller would be in the Hall of Fame. Byrd also
faces some mental issues. He needs to be able to pitch inside
without concern or else he and the Phils will have a long season.
The Phillies just aren't quite there yet as far as being considered
a true contender but with some breaks they may get an opportunity
to reach the playoffs in 2000.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
