This article takes a look at how the Tampa Bay Devil Rays did
in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an
overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 731 772
Runs allowed 822 913
Run Margin -91 -141
Wins 74 69
Pythagorean wins 72 68
Placement 5th 5th
The second-year expansion team raised the hopes of its fans
by going 22-20 through the first two months of the season. However,
things quickly fell apart as the D-Rays lost 16 of their next
19 games to fall to the bottom of the AL East.
After that swoon, the only reason to cheer came when hometown
hero Wade Boggs got his 3,000th hit. Boggs got the hit he expects
will land him in the Hall of Fame, a line-drive home run, but
retired soon after the season ended to become an executive with
the club. There was a lot of excitement when it looked like Jose
Canseco might be able to challenge Mark McGwire's single season
home run record -- Jose had belted 30 homers by July 4 -- but
that dream ended when the slugger missed six weeks with back problems.
Even though Tampa again finished last in the division, general
manager Chuck LaMar was happy enough with six more victories than
the club had in its inaugural campaign. Devil Rays executives
insisted following the 1999 season that the franchise was on track
and that the club was making the amount of progress they had projected
a second-year team would make.
Other members of Major League Baseball's fraternity were not
so sure, though. A visit by Commissioner Bud Selig to Tampa late
last year underlined MLB's concern that the new franchise's precipitous
drop in attendance in 1999 could strap the club financially and
make it a basket case in need of long-term revenue sharing.
Key Position Players
Tampa Bay scored the fourth-fewest runs in the American League
last year, but the club hopes its two biggest acquisitions, sluggers
Greg Vaughn and Vinny Castilla, will be able to provide enough
punch to elevate the team several notches. They'll hit in the
middle of the order with Fred McGriff and Jose Canseco, both of
whom enjoyed an offensive renaissance in 1999.
McGriff bounced back last season with his first 30-homer season
since 1994, and Canseco was leading the majors in home runs midway
through the season before he went down for six weeks with a back
injury. After those two, unfortunately, Tampa Bay didn't have
any real threats. A sure sign of the weakness of their offense
was the fact that Dave Martinez and his .387 slugging average
got 514 at-bats.
John Flaherty, c, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 507 121 24 0 8 39 50 1 34 4 73 2 3 .239 .286 .333 .619 46
Prorated Tam 444 106 21 0 7 34 43 0 29 3 63 1 2 .239 .284 .333 .617 40
Actual Tam 446 124 19 0 14 53 71 6 19 0 64 0 2 .278 .310 .415 .725 54
Flaherty rebounded strongly in 1999 after a poor '98. He ended
last season third among Devil Rays players in RBIs. While his
year at bat was good, it wasn't spectacular; his ability to stay
healthy enough to come to the plate close to 500 times is what
made his RBI count high. He did bat .301 against right-handers,
a 100-point elevation over his 1998 level, and slugged 200 points
higher. Oddly, Flaherty, a right-handed batter, remained helpless,
as usual, against southpaws and, again in 1999, rarely took a
walk.
Defensively Flaherty continued to impress. He fields well,
has agility, and features a very strong arm. He is one of the
better all-around receivers in the AL, which is currently fairly
weak at the position.
Mike DiFelice, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 69 15 3 0 1 5 7 0 5 0 15 0 0 .217 .270 .304 .575 5
Prorated Tam 175 38 7 0 2 12 17 0 12 0 38 0 0 .217 .267 .291 .559 12
Actual Tam 179 55 11 0 6 21 27 3 8 0 23 0 0 .307 .346 .469 .815 30
"Pigboy" had a good year at bat as the D-Rays' second-string
receiver, throwing out more than 40 percent of enemy baserunners.
He batted .300 or higher in four of the season's six months, and
hit well against both lefties and righties. However, he did not
iron out a big deficiency -- his inability to get on base via
the walk. Backup duty is his role: It is not at all clear whether
DiFelice can maintain the offensive pace he showed in 1999, and
the Devil Rays would be wise not to expect too much of him.
Fred McGriff, 1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 558 155 30 0 23 76 90 2 71 7 117 5 1 .278 .359 .455 .814 91
Prorated Tam 544 151 29 0 22 74 87 1 69 6 114 4 0 .278 .358 .452 .810 88
Actual Tam 529 164 30 1 32 75 104 1 86 11 107 1 0 .310 .405 .552 .957 121
This past winter would have been a great time to trade McGriff,
as the aging slugger was coming off a terrific 1999, but the Rays
decided to hold on to him with the idea that they might actually
contend this year. While McGriff's long-term value is questionable,
he did indeed light up the skies in 1999. It was his best season
in half a decade, even factoring in a league-wide offensive explosion,
as he once again did by far his best work at Tropicana Field (.344,
18 HR in home games). In 1999, he did most of his damage (uncharacteristically)
before August.
Fred is no longer impressive defensively and is one of the
slowest players in the game. Left-handers still puzzle him as
well (.765 OPS in '99). But last year, at least, Crime Dog arrested
his late-career decline -- at least temporarily.
Miguel Cairo, 2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 516 135 26 4 4 62 44 6 22 0 45 23 10 .262 .298 .351 .649 54
Prorated Tam 472 123 23 3 3 56 40 5 20 0 41 21 9 .261 .297 .341 .638 48
Actual Tam 465 137 15 5 3 61 36 7 24 0 46 22 7 .295 .335 .368 .703 57
Now that Cairo has matured into an everyday major-league player,
the only question to answer is, does he do enough to help his
team win? That's the big question facing the Rays. Cairo is a
good solid .280-.300 hitter who steals bases. He also kills lefties
(.384 last season, .328 in 1998). Having said that, it's his entire
case as an offensive player. He has negligible power and walks
infrequently, making him unhelpful at the top of the order.
Much of Cairo's value comes in the field. He has range slightly
better than the league norm with good hands. He is much admired
for his double-play skills as well. All in all, he adds up to
a replacement-level player, providing neither quality hitting
nor Gold Glove defense; he's not hurting the team, but he's not
helping it climb out of the basement, either.
Tony Graffanino, 2b/ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Tam 130 41 9 4 2 20 19 1 9 0 22 3 2 .315 .364 .492 .857 23
After being released by Atlanta in March '99, Graffanino signed
with Tampa Bay, tore up AAA, earned a summer recall, and saved
his career. He got enough playing time to show his stuff both
at bat and in the field, displaying excellent range at second
and average range at shortstop and hitting well in all situations
(including .368 in September). He's won a utility job for 2000.
Aaron Ledesma, ss/3b/2b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 102 31 6 1 0 12 11 1 6 1 15 2 1 .304 .345 .382 .728 13
Prorated Tam 286 87 16 2 0 33 30 2 16 2 42 5 2 .304 .343 .374 .717 35
Actual Tam 294 78 15 0 0 32 30 3 14 1 35 1 1 .265 .305 .316 .622 25
While Ledesma didn't repeat his hot 1998 season (.324 in 95
games), he wasn't too bad. He has no power and rarely walks, but
puts the bat on the ball and can play nearly everywhere on the
diamond. Aaron's average against lefties dipped 125 points (to
.262) in 1999; that was the chief reason for the offensive decline.
Ledesma played all the infield positions last season, and while
he's not a particularly rangy shortstop, he's excellent at second
and third. Ledesma went to Colorado as part of the big, four-team
December trade that brought Vinny Castilla to Tampa Bay.
Kevin Stocker, ss, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 517 122 21 4 8 58 45 8 49 6 109 9 5 .236 .310 .338 .649 55
Prorated Tam 253 59 10 1 3 28 22 3 23 2 53 4 2 .233 .304 .316 .620 25
Actual Tam 254 76 11 2 1 39 27 4 24 0 41 9 7 .299 .369 .370 .739 35
Stocker's odd career has been a confusing mishmash of long
slumps and occasional hot streaks. It's hard to tell what he'll
do in any particular season, and 1999 was a typically odd campaign
for him. Even batting over .300 for most of the year (he began
to sag in July, when he eventually went down for the season with
knee troubles), he's not a great offensive player, as he has little
power or speed and doesn't walk enough to be a top-of-the-order
hitter. If his defense were consistently good, Stocker would be
valuable, but in 1999, he didn't field balls well and showed only
average mobility, though his range was hampered by his knee problem.
Kevin is expected back for the 2000 season, but the knee injury
puts his future speed and range in question. A rehab attempt late
in the '99 season failed to heal the inflammation in his left
knee, and he underwent surgery on August 31 to repair defective
cartilage under his left kneecap.
David Lamb, ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 67 18 3 0 0 8 6 1 5 0 8 0 0 .269 .324 .313 .638 7
Prorated Tam 119 32 5 0 0 14 10 1 8 0 14 0 0 .269 .320 .311 .631 12
Actual Tam 124 28 5 1 1 18 13 0 10 0 18 0 1 .226 .284 .306 .590 10
Lamb, a Rule 5 pick from Baltimore in the December 1998 draft,
spent the year with Tampa Bay but couldn't bust his way into the
lineup even after Kevin Stocker went down with a knee problem
in July. The Rays gave Lamb just 24 at-bats from August 1 through
the end of the season. He showed poor range and hands both at
second base and shortstop in '99, and the Devil Rays waived him
to the Mets in January.
Wade Boggs, 3b, age 41
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 361 100 21 2 3 50 35 0 44 5 41 1 1 .277 .353 .371 .724 48
Prorated Tam 294 81 17 1 2 40 28 0 35 4 33 0 0 .276 .350 .361 .711 38
Actual Tam 292 88 14 1 2 40 29 0 38 2 23 1 0 .301 .377 .377 .754 41
In his final major-league campaign, Boggs did what he had done
for most of the last decade: hit for average with no power, take
some walks, and battle unsuccessfully to do a decent job at the
hot corner. By the end of his career, Boggs was one of the game's
least mobile players, and he really didn't belong in the lineup
as often as he was penciled in. Boggs' August 7 home run was his
last as a major-leaguer and also his 3,000th hit; he became the
only member of the exclusive H3K club to hit a four-bagger to
reach the milestone.
Bobby Smith, 3b/2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 303 76 12 1 9 35 42 4 27 1 85 5 3 .251 .318 .386 .705 38
Prorated Tam 196 49 7 0 5 22 27 2 17 0 55 3 1 .250 .315 .362 .677 23
Actual Tam 199 36 4 1 3 18 19 1 16 0 64 4 4 .181 .244 .256 .501 11
The former Braves' prospect ran hot-and-cold at the plate in
1998, but last season he was just plain miserable. The Devil Rays
sent him down in May and didn't bring him back until July; only
in September (.262, one homer) could he be described as better
than bad. While the wisdom of sending Smith down (with no clear
replacement to play third) can be debated, Smith was truly awful
at bat. His defense wasn't much of a bargain either; despite above-average
range, a scatter arm led to far too many errors for comfort.
Herb Perry, 3b/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 68 18 3 0 2 8 11 2 5 1 9 1 0 .265 .333 .397 .730 9
Prorated Tam 216 57 9 0 6 25 35 6 15 3 28 3 0 .264 .329 .389 .718 27
Actual Tam 209 53 10 1 6 29 32 10 16 1 42 0 0 .254 .331 .397 .728 25
After several years of knee injuries, Perry came back and showed
good range at third base in limited duty there. It's not clear
that this can continue, as Herb wasn't an especially good first
baseman back in his Cleveland days. Perry hasn't been healthy
enough to swing the bat for most of the last three seasons, and
his 1999 offensive performance was not encouraging. He hit .358
in April, but with no power, and slugged four homers in September,
but batted only .205. Due to his poor performance, Perry was outrighted
to AAA Durham in December, though he will get another chance to
show he can contribute in spring training.
Paul Sorrento, lf/1b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 351 89 19 0 20 42 55 3 41 4 96 1 1 .254 .334 .479 .813 56
Prorated Tam 306 77 16 0 17 36 48 2 35 3 83 0 0 .252 .330 .471 .801 48
Actual Tam 294 69 14 1 11 40 42 4 49 1 101 1 1 .235 .351 .401 .752 45
Moving the highly immobile Sorrento from first base to left
field was another one of those goofy Devil Rays ideas that didn't
work out: Who'd want to pitch for a club with this kind of defense?
His range, of course, was well below-average. Sorrento didn't
hit much, either, batting just .224 at home and .227 against right-handers.
His bat appears to have slowed considerably in the last couple
of years; his 101 strikeouts in just 294 at-bats last season are
at a completely intolerable rate.
Bubba Trammell, lf/rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 212 54 13 0 14 34 39 1 22 1 48 2 2 .255 .325 .514 .839 35
Prorated Tam 293 74 17 0 19 47 53 1 30 1 66 2 2 .253 .322 .505 .827 48
Actual Tam 283 82 19 0 14 49 39 1 43 1 37 0 2 .290 .384 .505 .889 55
Trammell's 1999 performance was one of the few positive things
about the Devil Rays' season -- and if a 14-homer performance
by a 27-year-old left fielder is really a positive, send for help
quickly.
What Trammell did well last year was hit. He clubbed righties
at a .309 clip, and didn't suffer a serious slump all year. Oddly,
the right-handed power hitter didn't play much -- and didn't do
a thing -- against lefties after batting .324 versus them in 1998.
Bubba's range in the outfield was substantially improved from
1998, making him a veritable star among Tampa Bay's poor defensive
outfielders. Whether that improvement real or just a fluke due
to limited playing time remains to be seen. Still, warts and all,
he hasn't proven conclusively yet that he can't help a good baseball
team, so he deserves another shot to show what he can do.
Quinton McCracken, lf/cf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 636 174 32 6 7 91 63 2 55 1 121 27 13 .274 .330 .376 .706 80
Prorated Tam 147 40 7 1 1 21 14 0 12 0 28 6 3 .272 .325 .354 .679 17
Actual Tam 148 37 6 1 1 20 18 1 14 0 23 6 5 .250 .317 .324 .641 14
It was a rough season for "The Q." He sprained his
right knee before spring training and started the season poorly.
Then, just as he was getting back into game shape, he ripped up
the knee on May 25 leaping into the Tropicana Field wall to catch
a ball that went for a home run. Surgery to repair his ruptured
anterior cruciate ligament followed shortly thereafter.
McCracken isn't anything without his speed, and it's not clear
whether he can return to his previous condition following this
injury. Even at 100 percent physically, McCracken isn't more than
an average offensive player anyway, since he hasn't much power
and doesn't get on base that often.
Danny Clyburn, lf/rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 69 17 3 0 3 11 10 1 5 0 14 1 1 .246 .307 .420 .727 9
Prorated Tam 81 20 3 0 3 13 11 1 5 0 16 1 1 .247 .299 .395 .694 9
Actual Tam 81 16 4 0 3 8 5 1 7 0 21 0 0 .198 .270 .358 .628 7
Clyburn has big-league power, but there is little else to recommend
him. In the little playing time that he received from manager
Larry Rothschild early in 1999, he struck out often, didn't hit,
and failed to knock anyone's socks off on defense. Clyburn played
semi-regularly in April, got in a few at-bats during May, then
spent the rest of the season back at AAA Durham, where he hit
very poorly. Once thought of as a prospect, he needs to show that
he's not washed up already
Randy Winn, cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 626 163 19 11 3 97 42 3 54 1 130 47 23 .260 .322 .340 .662 72
Prorated Tam 289 75 8 5 1 44 19 1 24 0 60 21 10 .260 .318 .332 .651 32
Actual Tam 303 81 16 4 2 44 24 1 17 0 63 9 9 .267 .307 .366 .673 33
Tampa Bay had hopes that Winn would develop into the multi-dimensional
leadoff hitter that they need so badly but, in his second season,
the speedster slumped badly. He showed no patience at bat, therefore
compiling a very poor on-base average. His basestealing, just
average as a rookie, was awful in '99, and he showed little extra-base
sock. The Rays farmed him out for most of the final three months
of the season after both his hitting and his attitude sagged.
Winn has just average range for a center fielder, but does
have a stronger arm than most at his position. He also has good
hands, committing just one error last season. The way his career
is going as an offensive player, Winn might have to hope his glove
is good enough to keep him on the big-league roster for fifth-outfielder
duty.
Terrell Lowery, cf/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 67 17 4 0 2 10 11 0 8 0 16 1 1 .254 .333 .403 .736 9
Prorated Tam 184 46 10 0 5 27 30 0 21 0 43 2 2 .250 .327 .386 .713 23
Actual Tam 185 48 15 1 2 25 17 1 19 0 53 0 2 .259 .330 .384 .714 24
The former Rangers' and Cubs' hopeful got a chance to play
last season when injuries ripped apart Tampa Bay's outfield. While
Lowery isn't good enough to be a regular, he has a little bit
of sock and might hit well enough to be a serviceable reserve
outfielder on a below-average team. After hitting .300 as a near-regular
in July and August, he sagged sharply (.154, no power) in September,
suggesting that the league may have caught up to him. Lowery's
range in center field was not at all good in 1999, but he did
show better mobility when used in left.
Dave Martinez, rf/cf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 74 21 3 0 2 11 7 1 8 1 11 2 1 .284 .357 .405 .763 11
Prorated Tam 523 148 21 0 14 77 49 7 56 7 77 14 7 .283 .356 .403 .759 78
Actual Tam 514 146 25 5 6 79 66 5 60 3 76 13 6 .284 .361 .387 .748 77
Martinez did his usual job in 1999-filling in wherever necessary
and doing a little bit of everything on offense. Recovering from
a hamstring injury that limited him to 90 games in '98, he played
a full schedule because the Rays needed a healthy body who could
play both center and right field.
While Martinez still doesn't hit lefties well enough to be
an everyday player, the D-Rays had few options in 1999. He doesn't
have much pop, but does get on base often enough and has good
enough speed to be a nuisance. Unfortunately, his range in both
center field and right field declined and was well below average
last season.
Jose Guillen, rf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 553 148 30 3 15 61 80 7 20 0 93 2 3 .268 .300 .414 .714 66
Prorated Pit 124 33 6 0 3 13 18 1 4 0 20 0 0 .266 .295 .387 .682 13
Actual Pit 120 32 6 0 1 18 18 0 10 1 21 1 0 .267 .321 .342 .662 12
Prorated Tam 175 47 9 0 4 19 25 2 6 0 29 0 0 .269 .299 .389 .687 20
Actual Tam 168 41 10 0 2 24 13 7 10 1 36 0 0 .244 .312 .339 .651 17
Prorated Tot 300 80 16 1 8 33 43 3 10 0 50 1 1 .267 .295 .407 .702 35
Actual Tot 288 73 16 0 3 42 31 7 20 2 57 1 0 .253 .315 .340 .656 28
Dumped by the Pirates, Guillen got a little bit of playing
time with the Devil Rays but failed to impress after changing
addresses. Guillen still swings at too many pitches outside the
strike zone, a behavior that neutralizes his impressive power.
He's still young enough to become a good hitter in the major leagues,
but he badly needs to follow instructions. Of course, that recalcitrance
to listen to his coaches is one of the big reasons he was dumped
by Pittsburgh.
Guillen's range in right field last year was slightly below
par both in Pittsburgh and Tampa. However, he still has a cannon;
AL runners haven't yet learned to fear his arm, so he threw out
five runners in just 47 games after coming over to the Devil Rays.
Jose Canseco, dh/lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 629 145 29 0 47 100 115 7 72 5 178 23 11 .231 .314 .501 .815 98
Prorated Tam 442 102 20 0 33 70 80 4 50 3 125 16 7 .231 .313 .500 .813 69
Actual Tam 430 120 18 1 34 75 95 7 58 3 135 3 0 .279 .369 .563 .931 90
Canseco had another great power season in 1999 and, largely
due to a resurgence against lefties, hit for a much higher average
than expected. He had already connected for 28 homers by the end
of June and appeared on the way to a great season before his back
problems flared up. Eventually, Canseco sat out six weeks after
undergoing back surgery for a herniated disk. His productivity
was greatly diminished when he returned from the sidelines; his
slugging dropped from .622 to .400 after his remarkably quick
recovery.
Never a good outfielder, Canseco has now been relegated almost
exclusively to DH duty. He played six games in left field last
season and showed very poor range.
Key Pitchers
Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-fewest home runs in the league
last year, but still allowed the second highest number of runs
in the AL. Why? Because the team's pitching staff easily led the
league in walks and opponents on-base average.
The Devil Rays went with a mix of experienced veterans and
youngsters on their staff last year, but the combination didn't
work. Bobby Witt was awful, as was Dave Eiland, which put even
more pressure on the young guns of the staff. Ryan Rupe and Tony
Saunders had their moments, but neither was capable of carrying
a staff.
Even first-year ace Rolando Arrojo couldn't keep it together
following his outstanding rookie season of 1998. The club tried
to trade Arrojo most of the second half of the season, an indication
that the Devil Rays' brain trust thought the former Cuban defector
was not likely to return to his previous form. Otherwise, why
try to trade an at least dependable starter who's making far less
than the going rate and isn't even eligible for arbitration till
after the 2000 season?
Bobby Witt, starter, age 35 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.34 27 27 5 10 0 143 175 28 59 86 .303 .885
Prorated Tam 6.34 34 34 6 13 0 180 220 35 74 108 .303 .885
Actual Tam 5.84 32 32 7 15 0 180 213 23 96 123 .304 .861
The Devil Rays signed Witt, who pitched for the Cardinals and
Rangers in 1998, to plug gaps in their weak rotation. He pitched
very well at the start of the season, but soon experienced the
same control problems that have dogged him for most of his career.
Continuing to use a fastball that has declined sharply in velocity,
Witt gets his strikeouts but still has trouble locating his pitches
precisely enough to be effective. What's truly troublesome about
Witt's 1999 performance is that everybody lit him up -- lefties
and righties, both at home and away. From August 1 until the end
of the season, he was 1-9 with a 7.00 ERA. Time to try someone
else.
Wilson Alvarez, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.12 32 32 12 10 0 192 179 22 90 157 .248 .732
Prorated Tam 4.12 27 27 10 8 0 163 151 19 76 133 .248 .732
Actual Tam 4.22 28 28 9 9 0 160 159 22 79 128 .260 .778
Alvarez' performance showed marked improvement in 1999. He
lowered his ERA by half a run from the previous season despite
an ever-higher league offensive standard, finishing last year
with an ERA well below the AL average of 5.03 for starting pitching.
However, Wilson was very inconsistent from start to start,
rarely getting into a groove. August was an exception; he was
4-0 that month (with a 2.12 ERA) after coming off the disabled
list with a sore triceps. He had also missed time earlier in the
season with a sore shoulder, an injury that dogged him throughout
the year. All in all, his '99 showing was quite good given his
physical problems. One thing Alvarez must do in 2000 is improve
against left-handers. Last year, they hit .276 and slugged a mighty
.500 against him.
Rolando Arrojo, starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.28 32 32 11 11 0 193 194 21 68 151 .264 .746
Prorated Tam 4.28 24 24 8 8 0 146 147 16 51 114 .264 .746
Actual Tam 5.18 24 24 7 12 0 141 162 23 60 107 .296 .881
Counted on to be the ace of a staff that had many young pitchers,
the experienced Arrojo instead looked very little like the pitcher
who was so impressive in 1998. Injuries were a big part of this
decline; in the spring he was hampered by back problems, and he
pitched very poorly in April and May. He then missed all of June
and most of July after going on the disabled list with a sore
right shoulder.
When Arrojo returned to action in late July, he was a totally
different pitcher, going 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA in August before
backsliding in September. Left-handed batters were again very
successful against Arrojo in 1999 but, unlike in '98, righties
clubbed him as well.
Obviously Arrojo has a lot of talent and can come back strong
this season if healthy. The question is how serious his injuries
really were and what the prognosis is for this year. The Devil
Rays tried extremely hard to trade Rolando during the second half,
raising a lot of eyebrows about whether his arm was really healthy.
Ryan Rupe, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tam 4.55 24 24 8 9 0 142 136 17 57 97 .253 .765
After just 13 minor league games in 1998, the impressive rookie
nearly made the Devil Rays' staff out of spring training. He eventually
joined the rotation in May and stayed there for the remainder
of the season. Ryan showed good stuff, poise, and the ability
to make adjustments, although control was not always a strong
point. Rupe did not show weakness against hitters from either
side, a good sign for a young starting pitcher.
Rupe started feeling soreness in his pitching shoulder in June
and was shut down for the season late in September as a result.
Larry Rothschild must resist the temptation to overuse his talented
young righty, but most in Tampa Bay believe that Rupe will eventually
be a #1 or #2 starter.
Dave Eiland, starter, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.20 4 4 1 1 0 20 26 3 5 12 .317 .869
Prorated Tam 6.20 17 17 4 4 0 85 109 13 21 50 .317 .869
Actual Tam 5.60 21 15 4 8 0 80 98 8 27 53 .294 .784
It's anyone's guess what Eiland is doing in the majors. The
evidence is clear that he can't pitch at this level. While Eiland
is always successful at AAA, he's been getting out minor league
hitters there for a decade now. When a pitcher is so much older
than many of the hitters he's facing in the minors, his experience
gives him an advantage that can result in impressive minor league
stats. That doesn't mean he can pitch in The Show.
Tony Saunders, starter, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.42 32 32 12 12 0 200 198 18 117 180 .261 .757
Prorated Tam 4.42 7 7 3 3 0 45 45 4 27 41 .261 .757
Actual Tam 6.43 9 9 3 3 0 42 53 6 29 30 .315 .924
Saunders suffered a broken arm while pitching last May 26,
putting his career in jeopardy. He had not been pitching well
before the injury, especially against right-handed hitters, but
early-season struggles may be part of a pattern; Saunders was
just 1-9 with a 4.66 ERA before the All-Star break in 1998. Saunders
says he'll be back in 2000, but caution is obviously the watchword.
Saunders was making his ninth start of the season when he snapped
his left arm in a horrible scene.
Dan Wheeler, starter, age 21
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tam 5.87 6 6 0 4 0 31 35 7 13 32 .287 .856
Wheeler had some trouble during his initial big-league action
last season, but the Devil Rays were just happy to see him in
the major leagues. Wheeler held right-handed batters to just a
.679 OPS, fanning 22 of them and walking just three in 59 at-bats.
His strikeout rate bodes well for the future, but he's still awfully
raw. Coming into 1999, he had just two years of pro experience,
both in low Class A ball. Wheeler is likely to spend most of this
season at AAA Durham, but the future looks bright for the 34th-round
pick in the 1996 draft.
Mickey Callaway, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tam 7.45 5 4 1 2 0 19 30 2 14 11 .357 .956
The unheralded Callaway, a finesse pitcher with no great pedigree,
posted a 7-1 record in 15 starts at AAA Durham and was brought
up in June. After two weeks, he went down with a hamstring injury
and couldn't get on-track in limited action after his return.
(In 33 at-bats, lefty swingers racked up a 1.278 OPS against him.)
The Devil Rays outrighted Callaway back to AAA Durham following
the season.
Bryan Rekar, swing pitcher, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.82 4 4 1 2 0 22 25 4 7 14 .291 .836
Prorated Tam 5.82 18 18 5 9 0 99 114 18 32 64 .291 .836
Actual Tam 5.80 27 12 6 6 0 95 121 14 41 55 .313 .874
Like so many other young hurlers, Rekar was bombed out of Colorado.
Unfortunately, he didn't pitch much better in 1998 or 1999 in
Tampa Bay. While he was 4-1 as a middle reliever at the end of
May, Rekar was struggling to keep his ERA under 5.00, a fight
that he eventually lost after a promotion to the rotation. By
July, Rekar had been shifted to the bullpen, and he pitched in
AAA after mid-August.
He continues to struggle with control and the home run ball,
and last year allowed left-handed batters a .323 average with
power. Bryan's career is clearly in deep trouble, and he's close
to falling out of the league despite his talent.
Mike Duvall, middle reliever, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.87 70 0 5 5 1 94 109 8 43 61 .295 .818
Prorated Tam 4.87 31 0 2 2 0 42 49 4 19 27 .295 .818
Actual Tam 4.05 40 0 1 1 0 40 46 5 27 18 .293 .879
The Devil Rays promoted Duvall three times during the season.
Aside from the pressure of being treated like a yo-yo, he also
was disabled in June with a strained oblique muscle. While his
performance doesn't look all that impressive, he was far more
effective when he received regular work. In August and September,
Duvall was very effective in 17 appearances.
However, Duvall has a couple of black marks. Mike experienced
control problems in 1999, and he was also racked by lefty hitters
last year, allowing them a 1.002 OPS. Unless he straightens that
out, it will be difficult for him to find any role other than
as a frequent flier between AAA and the majors.
Scott Aldred, middle reliever, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.75 53 0 1 2 0 33 46 7 15 19 .329 .963
Prorated Tam 6.75 38 0 1 1 0 24 33 5 11 14 .329 .963
Actual Tam 5.18 37 0 3 2 0 24 26 1 14 22 .274 .764
Prorated Phi 6.75 47 0 1 2 0 29 41 6 13 17 .329 .963
Actual Phi 3.90 29 0 1 1 1 32 33 1 15 19 .277 .715
Prorated Tot 6.75 85 0 2 3 0 53 73 11 24 30 .329 .963
Actual Tot 4.45 66 0 4 3 1 57 59 2 29 41 .276 .737
After more than a decade trying to find himself, Aldred landed
in the Devil Rays' bullpen in 1998 and was surprisingly effective.
However, last year he slipped back to his usual ineffectiveness
and was moved to the Phillies in July. Aldred was hit hard by
right-handers last year for Tampa and walked too many hitters,
but was slightly more effective after joining Philadelphia. He
remains marginal and will probably always be a tenth or eleventh
pitcher on a weak staff.
Julio Santana, middle reliever, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.25 32 32 10 12 0 185 210 23 84 95 .288 .813
Prorated Tam 5.25 10 10 3 4 0 58 66 7 26 30 .288 .813
Actual Tam 7.32 22 5 1 4 0 55 66 10 32 34 .300 .931
The Rangers ran out of patience with the hard-throwing but
wild right-hander, and the Devil Rays decided to take a chance
on him in 1998. However, even Tampa Bay couldn't see the way to
giving Santana any regular work, and dumped him to Boston last
July. The Red Sox immediately sent him to AAA.
While in Tampa Bay, Santana missed three weeks with a sore
shoulder and was terrible when healthy. He allowed righties a
.331 average with power, and lefties (who hit .265) slugged .551
against him.
Jim Mecir, middle reliever, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 3.33 70 0 6 3 3 100 90 10 38 96 .242 .690
Prorated Tam 3.33 15 0 1 1 1 22 20 2 8 21 .242 .690
Actual Tam 2.61 17 0 0 1 0 21 15 0 14 15 .205 .607
Following an effective 1998 season, Mecir was pitching well
in 1999 when he tripped during batting practice and fractured
his pitching elbow. That finished Mecir for the year. Jim is expected
to return healthy this spring. Effective against both left and
right-handed batters, Mecir has excellent sink on his fastball
and gets ground balls consistently, making him a useful guy to
call upon with runners on base and less than two out.
Norm Charlton, middle reliever, age 36
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.51 13 0 1 1 0 16 19 2 11 14 .297 .856
Prorated Tam 5.51 39 0 3 3 0 49 57 6 33 42 .297 .856
Actual Tam 4.44 42 0 2 3 0 51 49 4 36 45 .257 .775
While it's too early to call Charlton a baseball Rasputin,
he does continue to outlast his detractors. After two early-season
appearances, the veteran reliever was sent to AAA. On May 30,
he was brought back to Tampa Bay to stay.
The oft-injured lefty pitched well in after his recall before
falling apart in September (9.28 ERA, 18 hits in 10.2 frames).
Poor control, his late-career bugaboo, again reared its head in
1999, which kept Charlton from assuming a more important role.
In addition, for the second consecutive season, Charlton was more
effective against right-handed batters than lefties, which is
another reason it's difficult to count on him.
Rick White, middle reliever, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.44 30 0 2 3 0 51 61 7 17 30 .299 .828
Prorated Tam 5.44 64 0 4 6 0 110 130 15 36 64 .299 .828
Actual Tam 4.08 63 1 5 3 0 108 132 8 38 81 .304 .784
Continuing his rise from the ashes of an undistinguished career,
White -- formerly a Pittsburgh prospect -- took on the heavy lifting
for the Devil Rays in 1999. Aside from missing a few days in July
due to dehydration, White was the staff's unsung workhorse. He
finished second on the club in appearances and was fifth in innings
despite making just one start.
A classic sinker/slider pitcher, White allowed opponents from
both sides of the dish to hit over .300, but was pretty stingy
with the walks and home runs. He ratcheted up his strikeout rate
sharply in 1999 and was quite effective at Tropicana (4-1, 3.91).
Esteban Yan, setup pitcher, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.61 53 0 4 4 0 70 75 11 33 64 .273 .802
Prorated Tam 4.61 48 0 4 4 0 63 67 10 30 58 .273 .802
Actual Tam 5.90 50 1 3 4 0 61 77 8 32 46 .326 .896
After a solid 1998 campaign as a middle reliever, Yan struggled
all through 1999, not pitching well early or late. He missed a
month of action at mid-season with a sore shoulder, but the injury
bothered him all year. Esteban, a converted outfielder, has never
been especially durable. If his shoulder can hold up, Yan is valuable
to the Devil Rays. Unfortunately, history is not on his side.
Albie Lopez, setup pitcher, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.68 40 0 3 3 0 67 75 10 29 55 .284 .810
Prorated Tam 4.68 37 0 3 3 0 63 70 9 27 52 .284 .810
Actual Tam 4.64 51 0 3 2 1 64 66 8 24 37 .263 .711
Lopez, whose top fastball used to be in the class of teammate
Roberto Hernandez, took a step backward in 1999. A ribcage injury
that landed him on the DL in May, hampered him for most of last
season, costing him velocity and impairing his follow-through.
It took Lopez a couple of months to get back on track. By September,
however, he had found his 1998 form. In 17 innings, he fanned
12 hitters, walked four, and allowed just one earned run. So long
as he's healthy, Lopez should be effective in a setup role for
years to come.
Roberto Hernandez, closer, age 34
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 2.80 70 0 5 5 36 74 62 6 38 67 .229 .651
Prorated Tam 2.80 71 0 5 5 37 75 63 6 39 68 .229 .651
Actual Tam 3.07 72 0 2 3 43 73 68 1 33 69 .245 .625
The former White Sox' closer had one of the better seasons
of any big-league reliever in 1999. For the second straight season,
he did not pitch well in May, but Hernandez was nearly untouchable
the rest of the way. He was far more effective in home games than
in 1998, which was reflective of Tropicana not playing like a
big hitters' park in 1999. While Roberto continues to struggle
with walks, he keeps the ball down: one home run in 73 innings
is a spectacular total in the year of the booming bats, showing
that the veteran's splitter is still one of the best offerings
of any pitcher in the game.
There aren't many relievers in the game more dependable than
Hernandez, and plenty of teams would love to have him. Rumors
out of Tampa Bay have him going to a richer or better club sometime
in the 2000 season. Of course, that same rumor had circulated
for much of the past two years as well.
Outlook
It wasn't enough of a disappointment that the Devil Rays played
good ball for the first two months before falling to the bottom
of their division. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the NL West
in 1999, it put a ton of additional pressure on the Tampa Bay
organization to turn the expansion club into an instant contender.
So the D-Rays tried to imitate Arizona's philosophy by signing
several free agents to expensive, multi-year contracts. GM Chuck
LaMar and the rest of the organization are counting on Greg Vaughn,
Vinny Castilla, Juan Guzman and the others they imported having
the same kind of effect in 2000 that Randy Johnson, Matt Williams,
Steve Finley and Jay Bell had in Arizona in 1999.
Several players, including at least a couple of the free agents,
will have to have career years if the Devil Rays hope to catch
the Red Sox for a potential Wild Card berth. Stranger things have
happened but, if Tampa Bay is to make a run at the postseason,
nearly everything will have to go right.
The core of the everyday lineup -- Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn,
Fred McGriff and Vinny Castilla -- is going to have to stay healthy
and productive the entire season. Another key to the season could
be Jose Guillen, a tremendously talented but troubled youngster.
If he can provide a solid fifth bat in the lineup and good defense
in right field, the D-Rays should win more games.
Wilson Alvarez and Juan Guzman are fine pitchers, but the key
to the starting staff will be Steve Trachsel. He always has had
the potential to win 15-18 games, but things totally fell apart
for him last season. Instead of having a strong year to help his
free-agent negotiations, he lost 18 games and had to settle for
a contract that will pay him only about a million dollars plus
incentives. If he can rebound to his 1996 (13-9) or 1998 (15-8)
levels, the team could have enough pitching to stay in the hunt
for a Wild Card berth throughout the summer.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
