This article takes a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals did
in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an
overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 864 809
Runs allowed 789 838
Run Margin 75 -29
Wins 88 75
Pythagorean wins 88 78
Placement 2nd 4th
The Cardinals in 1999 bore little resemblance to the previous
edition of the team. Only two of the starters at the beginning
of 1998 were still on the club last year and only one of them
(Mark McGwire) was playing regularly by the season's end. Brian
Jordan, John Mabry and Delino DeShields left as free agents following
1998; Eric Davis, Scott Radinsky and Shawon Dunston were signed.
Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, Cliff Politte and about $6 million went
to the Phillies in exchange for Rick Bottalico and Garrett Stephenson,
and three minor leaguers were sent to the Marlins for Edgar Renteria.
When the dust settled, it looked as though the Cardinals would
improve upon their 1998 mark of 83-79. The league's best offense,
combined with adequate pitching, was supposed to put St. Louis
in the middle of the NL Central race. Instead, both their hitting
and pitching were big disappointments and the Cardinals won 12
fewer games than projected, a fact that didn't prevent the team
from breaking its all-time attendance mark. 3,235,833 fans paid
their way into Busch Stadium to see Mark McGwire try to set yet
another single-season home run record.
Key Position Players
The Cardinals were expected to have the most potent offense
in the NL (not including the mile-high hitters in Colorado), but
instead scored only 809 runs, or almost exactly the league average.
While Mark McGwire produced his usual allotment of home runs and
Fernando Tatis was a pleasant surprise, poor seasons from Eli
Marrero and J.D. Drew, as well as injuries to Eric Davis and Lankford
took much of the punch out of the attack.
Eli Marrero, c/1b, age 25 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 486 123 25 2 15 60 59 2 45 6 74 10 6 .253 .317 .405 .722 62
Prorated StL 309 78 15 1 9 38 37 1 28 3 47 6 3 .252 .315 .395 .710 38
Actual StL 317 61 13 1 6 32 34 1 18 4 56 11 2 .192 .236 .297 .533 20
The last two years have been especially rough on Eli Marrero.
After undergoing radiation treatment in 1998 for a cancerous thyroid,
he saw his offense completely disappear in 1999. He had been a
pretty good hitter in the minors, with 20 homers in 395 at-bats
and a .273 average at Louisville in 1997, but he was helpless
at the plate last year. Starting on July 4th, Marrero would get
hits in only 4 of his next 36 games, going a miserable 8-74 with
no home runs. By the end of the season, he had lost his starting
job to Alberto Castillo and was heading to the Fall Instructional
League in an attempt to rediscover his hitting stroke. With the
trade of Castillo during the off-season, it looks as though the
Cards are counting on a comeback from Marrero in 2000.
Alberto Castillo, c, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 84 16 2 0 1 9 6 1 10 0 21 0 0 .190 .284 .250 .534 7
Prorated StL 246 46 5 0 2 26 17 2 29 0 61 0 0 .187 .278 .232 .510 18
Actual StL 255 67 8 0 4 21 31 2 24 1 48 0 0 .263 .326 .341 .667 29
After spending 11 years in the New York Mets organization,
Castillo signed with the Phillies as a free agent following the
1998 season. He would stay with Philadelphia for all of five weeks
before being drafted by the Cardinals in December. A career .198
hitter entering the season, Castillo turned out to be a pleasant
surprise for St. Louis. Oddly enough, Castillo ended up doing
nearly as well as we had expected Marrero to do, while Marrero's
season was right in line with our projection for Castillo. Despite
batting from the right side, Alberto didn't hit lefties at all
in 1999 (.174 average with no home runs). He was traded to Toronto
in the Pat Hentgen deal following the season.
Mark McGwire, 1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 521 145 23 0 63 112 131 7 133 22 155 1 0 .278 .429 .685 1.114 161
Prorated StL 517 144 22 0 62 111 130 6 132 21 154 0 0 .279 .429 .681 1.109 159
Actual StL 521 145 21 1 65 118 147 2 133 21 141 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120 160
A lot of things seem inevitable after the fact. Today, people
are talking about Mark McGwire's chances of hitting 700 or 756
home runs, but five years ago it seemed extremely unlikely that
he would even get as many as 500 round-trippers. By the time he
turned 31, he had only 238 home runs. To put this in perspective,
this was fewer homers than Tom Brunansky had hit by the same age.
Even after coming back to hit 39 home runs in 1995, McGwire was
still behind the pace set by such sluggers as Del Ennis and Boog
Powell. In the four seasons since then, of course, he has AVERAGED
over 61 home runs a year -- more than Maris hit during his record-setting
season back in 1961. After holding the record for nearly 37 years,
Roger Maris has now had his mark topped four times in the last
two years. It wouldn't surprise me if his total is not even among
the ten best by the end of the decade.
One of odd things about McGwire's season was how poorly the
Cardinals did in games featuring one or more of his home runs.
They actually did worse when he homered (24-32) than when he didn't
(51-54). And when he hit more than one home run, the Cardinals
were awful, winning only two of nine decisions.
Joe McEwing, 2b/lf/cf/rf/3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 551 147 35 8 7 68 61 3 25 4 64 10 11 .267 .301 .397 .698 62
Prorated StL 539 143 34 7 6 66 59 2 24 3 62 9 10 .265 .298 .388 .686 59
Actual StL 513 141 28 4 9 65 44 6 41 8 87 7 4 .275 .333 .398 .730 71
After hitting just .236 at the AA level in 1996 and 1997, McEwing
suddenly learned to hit in 1998. He collected 189 hits, 51 doubles,
11 triples and 15 home runs for the Cardinals' AA and AAA club
that year. He didn't walk much, but that was a small negative
when compared to a .342 batting average and .556 slugging percentage.
He continue his hot streak in the majors through the first
half of 1999. By the time he hit in his 25th consecutive game
on July 4th, he had a .312 batting average, although with little
power and few walks. He hit only .223 from then on, however, to
bring his final mark closer to our projections for him. He was
one of the poorer hitting second basemen in the majors and a move
to the outfield (where he spent most of September) will only serve
to highlight his offensive shortcomings. With the off-season addition
of second-baseman Fernando Vino to the roster, it looks as though
McEwing will have to compete for an outfield job in 2000.
Placido Polanco, 2b/3b/ss, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 71 17 3 0 0 7 5 0 3 0 6 2 0 .239 .270 .282 .552 6
Prorated StL 227 54 9 0 0 22 16 0 9 0 19 6 0 .238 .267 .278 .544 18
Actual StL 220 61 9 3 1 24 19 0 15 1 24 1 3 .277 .321 .359 .680 24
A light-hitting defensive specialist, Polanco saw most of his
action at second base in the first half of the season before being
displaced by McEwing. He spent the second half of both July and
August in the minors where he hit even worse than he had with
St. Louis.
Adam Kennedy, 2b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 72 18 4 1 1 7 7 0 1 0 8 2 1 .250 .257 .375 .632 7
Prorated StL 105 26 5 1 1 10 10 0 1 0 11 2 1 .248 .255 .343 .598 9
Actual StL 102 26 10 1 1 12 16 2 3 0 8 0 1 .255 .284 .402 .686 12
He moved through three levels of the Cardinals minor league
system in 1998, finishing up with a .305 average with their class
AAA club in Memphis. He continued to improve his game at Memphis
last year before getting called up to the Cards when Polanco was
sent down in August. While his fine statistics in the minors (.327
average and a .490 slugging percentage) didn't translate into
a lot of success during his short trial in St. Louis, he was the
front-runner for the second baseman's job in 2000 before the trade
for Vina. After showing little command of the strike zone in previous
years, Kennedy nearly doubled his walk rate last season.
Edgar Renteria, ss, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 601 176 23 3 5 92 46 4 49 1 92 40 17 .293 .349 .366 .715 77
Prorated StL 586 171 22 2 4 89 44 3 47 0 89 39 16 .292 .346 .357 .703 72
Actual StL 585 161 36 2 11 92 63 2 53 0 82 37 8 .275 .334 .400 .734 81
After hitting only 12 home runs in his three previous big league
seasons, Renteria almost matched that total in 1999 alone. His
increased power (he also easily topped his career high in doubles)
caused him to exceed our projections for him, despite a relatively
low (for him) batting average. After leading the NL in caught
stealing in 1998, Renteria had an excellent stolen base success
rate last year.
Fernando Tatis, 3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 568 157 33 2 16 73 64 5 41 3 125 14 4 .276 .330 .426 .756 77
Prorated StL 585 161 34 2 16 75 65 5 42 3 128 14 4 .275 .328 .422 .750 79
Actual StL 537 160 31 2 34 104 107 16 82 4 128 21 9 .298 .404 .553 .957 125
Only Chipper Jones was a better hitting third baseman in all
of baseball than Fernando Tatis was last year. After coming over
from Texas the previous July in a trade involving Royce Clayton
and Todd Stottlemyre, Tatis had a breakthrough season in 1999.
He more than doubled his walk rate from the previous year, turning
a weakness into a strength, and fulfilled the promise he had shown
when he had hit 32 home runs in 1997 (split between Texas and
Tulsa).
Eric Davis, rf, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 429 128 27 1 22 74 77 5 48 1 111 10 6 .298 .371 .520 .891 83
Prorated StL 196 58 12 0 10 33 35 2 21 0 50 4 2 .296 .367 .510 .877 37
Actual StL 191 49 9 2 5 27 30 1 30 1 49 5 4 .257 .359 .403 .762 30
The Cardinals signed Eric Davis last year to help replace some
of the offense Brian Jordan took with him to Atlanta. It was a
risky move on their part, given both Davis's age and medical history,
and it didn't work out. Davis suffered through shoulder problems
in May and June before his season came to an end when he was injured
making two diving catches to help preserve Jose Jiminez' no-hitter
on June 29th. It was a disappointing if not entirely unexpected
turn of events for the talented yet fragile Davis, a gifted athlete
who has never managed to play more than 135 games in any of his
14 major league seasons. He will once again be penciled in as
one of the Cardinals' regular outfielders in 2000.
Willie McGee, rf/lf/cf, age 40
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 161 44 8 1 2 17 20 0 9 2 30 4 1 .273 .310 .373 .683 18
Prorated StL 273 74 13 1 3 28 33 0 15 3 50 6 1 .271 .308 .359 .667 30
Actual StL 271 68 7 0 0 25 20 0 17 3 60 7 4 .251 .293 .277 .570 22
McGee played more than anticipated last season and the Cardinals
suffered as a result. Simply put, he was dreadful at the plate
in 1998 and was even worse last year. It was the first time since
1993 that an outfielder with more than 250 at-bats had both an
on-base and slugging percentage under .300. He has since announced
his retirement.
Thomas Howard, rf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 70 16 4 0 1 7 6 0 5 0 12 1 1 .229 .280 .329 .609 6
Prorated StL 200 45 11 0 2 20 17 0 14 0 34 2 2 .225 .276 .310 .586 17
Actual StL 195 57 10 0 6 16 28 2 17 0 26 1 1 .292 .353 .436 .789 30
The Cardinals picked up the well-traveled reserve outfielder
after he was released in the off-season by the Dodgers. Howard
was recalled when J.D. Drew went on the DL in May and responded
with his best season. Considering his age, and the fact that he
had hit only .184 in limited duty with Los Angeles the year before,
his performance was unexpected and not likely to be repeated.
Craig Paquette, rf/3b/2b/1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 71 16 3 0 2 7 9 0 3 0 18 1 1 .225 .253 .352 .605 5
Prorated StL 157 35 6 0 4 15 19 0 6 0 39 2 2 .223 .248 .338 .586 11
Actual StL 157 45 6 0 10 21 37 0 6 0 38 1 0 .287 .309 .516 .825 23
After missing almost all of 1998 with an ankle injury, Paquette
was playing for the Mets AAA club in Norfolk when he was traded
to the Cards for Shawon Dunston at the end of July. Once he joined
St. Louis, he filled in at several positions, putting together
the best two months of his career. He was especially good with
runners in scoring position, hitting .358 with a .642 slugging
percentage, accounting for his high RBI totals. Considering that
his career average with runners in scoring position prior to 1999
was only .243, his performance in these situations last year was
probably simply the result of good fortune.
J.D. Drew, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 568 173 43 8 32 109 107 4 102 2 131 4 6 .305 .412 .577 .989 134
Prorated StL 360 109 27 5 20 69 67 2 64 1 83 2 3 .303 .409 .572 .981 84
Actual StL 368 89 16 6 13 72 39 6 50 0 77 19 3 .242 .340 .424 .763 59
It's an understatement to say that expectations were high for
J.D. Drew last season. Since signing with the St. Louis following
the 1998 draft, he hit well in short stints for both their AA
and AAA clubs that summer before having a tremendous couple of
weeks for the Cards in September.
Lankford's knee injury forced Drew to play center instead of
right, and perhaps the defensive demands of the position contributed
to Drew's slow start. By the time he went on the DL in mid-May
with a strained right quadricep, Drew was hitting .230 with little
power. He would return at the end of June and turn in a fine July
(7 home runs and a .301 average) before slumping again over the
last two months of the season.
Despite his struggles as a rookie, Drew has tremendous potential
and is counted on to improve a great deal in 2000. If he doesn't,
manager Tony LaRussa has said that he won't hesitate to send his
young outfielder back to the minors.
Darren Bragg, cf/rf/lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 163 40 10 1 3 20 18 2 20 1 35 3 2 .245 .332 .374 .706 20
Prorated StL 280 68 17 1 5 34 30 3 34 1 60 5 3 .243 .328 .364 .692 34
Actual StL 273 71 12 1 6 38 26 3 44 1 67 3 0 .260 .369 .377 .746 41
A free agent pickup during the off-season, we anticipated a
bench role for Bragg in 1999. Injuries to Lankford and then Drew
turned Bragg into a regular until a torn ligament in his right
knee put him on the DL for good at the beginning of August. His
option was declined after the season and he won't be back.
Shawon Dunston, cf/lf/1b/ss/3b/rf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 70 18 4 1 1 9 7 1 2 0 10 3 1 .257 .284 .386 .669 8
Prorated StL 147 37 8 2 2 18 14 2 4 0 21 6 2 .252 .277 .374 .652 15
Actual StL 150 46 5 2 5 23 25 3 2 0 23 6 3 .307 .327 .467 .794 21
Actual NYN 93 32 6 1 0 12 16 2 0 0 16 4 1 .344 .354 .430 .784 13
Prorated NYN 90 23 5 1 1 11 9 1 2 0 12 3 1 .256 .277 .367 .643 9
Prorated Tot 238 61 13 3 3 30 23 3 6 0 34 10 3 .256 .280 .374 .654 25
Actual Tot 243 78 11 3 5 35 41 5 2 0 39 10 4 .321 .337 .453 .790 34
A bit player at this stage of his career, Dunston filled in
at a variety of positions before being traded to the Mets at the
end of July for Craig Paquette. After the season, he decided to
return to St. Louis as a free agent. The walk total above is not
a misprint; he really did walk only twice all season. The last
time a player with 200 or more at-bats walked less often than
that was in 1994, when Kim Batiste received only a single free
pass in 209 at-bats for the Phillies.
Ray Lankford, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 533 148 38 2 28 95 99 2 87 8 145 25 7 .278 .378 .514 .892 110
Prorated StL 404 112 28 1 21 72 75 1 66 6 110 18 5 .277 .378 .507 .885 82
Actual StL 422 129 32 1 15 77 63 3 49 3 110 14 4 .306 .380 .493 .873 82
Lankford started the season on the DL with a knee injury. When
he returned, he was moved from center to left field to take some
of the pressure off his knee. The move allowed him to remain in
the lineup for the rest of the season, and while he didn't approach
either his 31 homers or 105 RBIs of the year before, he had a
productive season nonetheless. After hitting 10 home runs in his
first 102 at-bats last year, Lankford's power all but disappeared
the rest of the year.
Key Pitchers
Going into spring training in 1999, the Cardinals were counting
on using a starting rotation of Matt Morris, Darren Oliver, Kent
Mercker, Donovan Osborne and Jose Jimenez. Morris ended up having
reconstructive elbow surgery and missing the entire season; Osborne
lasted only a month before going down with shoulder problems;
Jimenez pitched his way back to the minor leagues by August, and
Mercker had a three-month winless streak before being traded to
the Red Sox in August for two prospects.
There were a few pleasant surprises, including Kent Bottenfield
and Garrett Stephenson, but these were overwhelmed by problems
in the rest of the rotation and an almost complete collapse in
the bullpen, where Ricky Bottalico, Juan Acevedo, Manuel Aybar,
Lance Painter and Scott Radinsky all did much worse than anticipated.
Darren Oliver, Starter, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.69 32 32 10 12 0 190 202 21 74 113 .275 .777
Prorated StL 4.69 32 32 10 12 0 192 204 21 75 114 .275 .777
Actual StL 4.26 30 30 9 9 0 196 197 16 74 119 .265 .736
In 1998, Oliver posted a 4.26 ERA for the Cards after coming
over from Texas in the Tatis trade. He repeated that performance
last year. Oliver struggled in the middle of the season, at one
point going eight weeks between victories, and was reported to
be on the trading block in July. A free agent after the season,
Oliver signed with the Rangers for 2000.
Donovan Osborne, Starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.31 32 32 11 11 0 198 203 27 54 140 .265 .745
Prorated StL 4.31 5 5 2 2 0 31 32 4 8 22 .265 .745
Actual StL 5.52 6 6 1 3 0 29 34 4 10 21 .298 .845
After losing half of 1997 and 1998 to injuries, Osborne made
only six starts last season before undergoing shoulder surgery
in early May. He has now made an appearance on the DL in each
year since 1994. He was released by the Cardinals after the season.
Jose Jimenez, Starter, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.24 57 27 14 14 0 238 240 19 106 115 .268 .746
Prorated StL 4.24 40 19 10 10 0 168 170 13 75 81 .268 .746
Actual StL 5.85 29 28 5 14 0 163 173 16 71 113 .275 .763
When Jose Jimenez beat the Dodgers on April 23rd, it marked
his fifth career victory without a loss. In his seven major league
games, his ERA stood at 2.95. The season went downhill for him
in a hurry after that. He was sent to the minors in the middle
of August, recalled three weeks later, and was dealt in the off-season
to the Rockies (never good news to a pitcher) in the Darryl Kile
trade. The strange thing is that he didn't really do all that
much worse than we projected he would do (check out the prorated
and actual lines above), but somehow managed to post a much higher
ERA than anticipated.
Although he would go only 3-14 after that career-opening winning
streak, his season was not without its high points. Two of his
victories came within ten days of each other in spectacular fashion.
The first was be a no-hitter, the second a two-hitter; in both
games he shut out Randy Johnson and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I was at his no-hitter, along with a couple of hundred members
of The Society of American Baseball Research and two other members
of the Diamond Mind staff. It was a game I'll never forget.
Kent Mercker, Swing Man, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 5.16 32 32 9 11 0 171 205 18 64 82 .298 .803
Prorated StL 5.16 20 20 6 7 0 106 127 11 40 51 .298 .803
Actual StL 5.12 25 18 6 5 0 104 125 16 51 64 .303 .885
Prorated Bos 5.16 5 5 1 2 0 25 30 3 9 12 .298 .803
Actual Bos 3.51 5 5 2 0 0 26 23 0 13 17 .235 .644
Prorated Tot 5.16 25 25 7 8 0 131 157 14 49 63 .298 .803
Actual Tot 4.80 30 23 8 5 0 129 148 16 64 81 .290 .839
Mercker was considered somewhat of a disappointment by the
Cardinals. He was dropped from the rotation for a time in May
and June, suffered through a three-month winless streak, and was
finally traded to the Red Sox in August for prospects. Despite
this, he didn't pitch much worse than projected and part of the
team's unhappiness with his performance was no doubt due to the
club's unrealistic expectations for him.
Kent Bottenfield, Starter, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.07 34 4 3 3 0 66 65 7 25 50 .257 .718
Prorated StL 4.07 9 9 0 197 193 21 74 148 .257 .718
Actual StL 3.97 31 31 18 7 0 190 197 21 89 124 .270 .782
Bottenfield entered the season with an 18-27 career record
and would not have been in the starting rotation at all if not
for the injury to Morris. The odd thing is that he didn't really
pitch better than we thought he would. His role on the team was
certainly different, and his won-lost record dramatically better,
but he actually allowed more base runners per nine innings than
projected. He was 14-3 prior to his appearance in the All-Star
game. In the second half of the season, he would go only 4-4 despite
a respectable (for 1999) ERA of 4.26.
His season ended two starts early due to shoulder problems.
The good news is that his performance doesn't appear to be a fluke;
the bad news is that his won-loss record does. He simply didn't
pitch well enough (even considering his run support) to go 18-7
and is unlikely to repeat his good fortune in 2000.
Garrett Stephenson, Swing Man, age 27
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 5.40 4 4 1 1 0 20 21 3 8 13 .273 .799
Prorated StL 5.40 17 17 4 4 0 84 89 13 34 55 .273 .799
Actual StL 4.22 18 12 6 3 0 85 90 11 29 59 .275 .770
After a horrible season in 1998, where he went a combined 1-10
for the Phillies and their top farm team, Stephenson was a throw-in
in the Gant-Bottilico deal during the off-season. He was recalled
from the minors in June, pitched ineffectively out of the bullpen
for three weeks and was sent down again.
When he came back to the Cardinals in early August, LaRussa
stuck him into the starting rotation and something strange happened:
he started winning. He allowed only a single earned run in each
of his first six starts, winning four and losing none. His ERA
over that period was 1.37. He reverted to form after that, however,
going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA in his final six starts, and is a long-shot
to remain in the rotation next year.
Rick Ankiel, Swing Man, age 19
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual StL 3.27 9 5 0 1 1 33 26 2 14 39 .215 .607
The top pitching prospect in all of baseball, Ankiel was expected
to spend the entire season in the Cardinals' farm system in 1999.
A 13-3 record for their AA and AAA teams, as well as 194 strikeouts
in only 137 2/3 innings, got him called up to the majors in August.
With the injury to Kerry Wood fresh in their minds, the Cardinals
were cautious with Ankiel. He never pitched past the sixth inning
in any of his five starts before being moved to the bullpen to
further ease the strain on his arm. Young arms like Ankiel's are
always risky propositions and it would surprise me if he's allowed
to pitch more than 150 innings in 2000.
Ricky Bottalico, Closer, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.09 70 0 4 4 9 70 71 9 38 64 .263 .781
Prorated StL 4.09 77 0 4 4 10 77 78 10 42 71 .263 .781
Actual StL 4.91 68 0 3 7 20 73 83 8 49 66 .284 .841
Bottalico was picked up from Philadelphia in the off-season,
the key player for the Cardinals in the Ron Gant trade (okay,
the real key to the deal was simply getting rid of Gant). Still,
picking up Bottalico looked like a risky move for St. Louis, since
he was coming off a mediocre season in 1997 and a terrible one
in 1998, during which he had surgery to remove a bone chip from
his elbow and allowed a 6.44 ERA.
He pitched surprisingly well early in the season and was given
the closer's job when Acevedo struggled. A late season fade-out,
during which he posted a 8.68 ERA with five blown saves in eight
opportunities, had the team auditioning others for the job in
2000. Bottalico signed to play with the Kansas City Royals after
the season.
Juan Acevedo, Swing Man, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.23 70 0 2 7 25 72 75 8 27 51 .269 .747
Prorated StL 4.23 102 0 3 10 36 105 109 12 39 74 .269 .747
Actual StL 5.89 50 12 6 8 4 102 115 17 48 52 .291 .860
He was coming off a fine season in 1999, one in which he pitched
well in the starting rotation and as both a setup man and closer.
This time around, however, he did just the opposite, pitching
poorly until he was replaced as the team's closer in May, going
2-3 with a 6.49 ERA in 12 starts over the next two months, before
finishing up the year with an unimpressive stint in middle relief.
He was traded to the Brewers after the season in the deal that
brought Fernando Vina to St. Louis, and it looks as though Milwaukee
will put him into their starting rotation in 2000.
Manuel Aybar, Middle Relief, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.34 32 32 10 10 0 176 181 16 70 125 .266 .744
Prorated StL 4.34 18 18 6 6 0 99 101 9 39 70 .266 .744
Actual StL 5.47 65 1 4 5 3 97 104 13 36 74 .272 .777
A starter his entire career, Aybar was moved into the bullpen
last year and pitched pretty well in the early going. By the All-Star
break his ERA as a reliever was only 2.26. He was used frequently
in long relief and had thrown an awful lot of innings (67 1/3)
up to that point. I'm not sure if it was the heavy workload or
if the league simply figured Aybar out, but he got steadily worse
as the season progressed. By the time September rolled around,
he couldn't get anyone out. In his last six games, he allowed
12 earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings, and over the second half
of the season the league hit over .350 against him.
Rich Croushore, Middle Relief, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.21 40 0 3 3 0 68 67 8 33 60 .258 .757
Prorated StL 4.21 44 0 3 3 0 75 73 9 36 66 .258 .757
Actual StL 4.14 59 0 3 7 3 72 68 9 43 88 .247 .761
After having a brief trial as the Cardinals' closer in 1998,
Croushore started last year in the minor leagues. He was recalled
when Osborne went down and pitched well enough to get another
shot at the closer's role in August. He converted his first three
save opportunities, and by the middle of the month had a 2.47
ERA in 42 games. He was clobbered in three straight games after
that and was moved back into middle relief where he was ineffective
the rest of the year. Along with Jose Jimenez and Manuel Aybar,
he was sent to the Rockies after the season in the trade for Darryl
Kile and Dave Veres.
Mike Mohler, Middle Relief, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.40 23 0 2 2 0 31 34 3 14 24 .283 .782
Prorated StL 4.40 35 0 3 3 0 47 52 5 21 37 .283 .782
Actual StL 4.38 48 0 1 1 1 49 47 3 23 31 .255 .715
Mohler struggled in the first half of the season and was sent
to the minor leagues at the end of June. A month later he was
recalled when Radinsky went on the DL and pitched pretty well
the rest of the way. He posted a 1.26 ERA at home last year compared
to a 8.71 mark on the road.
Lance Painter, Middle Relief, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.98 53 0 3 2 0 54 51 7 27 47 .250 .748
Prorated StL 3.98 60 0 3 2 0 62 58 8 31 53 .250 .748
Actual StL 4.83 56 4 4 5 1 63 63 6 25 56 .265 .735
Painter was another of a host of Cardinal relievers to finish
with an ERA significantly higher than projected. In his case,
however, it's hard to see why. He allowed fewer home runs and
about the same number of base runners as expected. Painter missed
the second half of June with a strained shoulder and pitched much
better after returning from the DL. He was traded to Toronto after
the season in the Pat Hentgen deal.
Scott Radinsky, Middle Relief, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.78 70 0 6 4 1 98 102 8 34 75 .271 .732
Prorated StL 3.78 21 0 2 1 0 29 31 2 10 23 .271 .732
Actual StL 4.88 43 0 2 1 3 28 27 2 18 17 .270 .771
The lefty reliever struggled with his control in 1999 before
going down in late July with elbow problems. In each of his last
six seasons, he has allowed between 17 and 21 walks. It's not
particularly meaningful or even indicative of consistent control
(since his innings pitched totals over the same period has gone
from a low of 28 to a high of 62), but I thought it was interesting
anyway.
Heathcliff Slocumb, Middle Relief, age 33
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.15 53 0 4 3 0 69 73 5 43 57 .273 .759
Prorated Bal 4.15 8 0 1 0 0 11 11 1 7 9 .273 .759
Actual Bal 12.46 10 0 0 0 0 9 15 2 9 12 .395 1.215
Prorated StL 4.15 40 0 3 2 0 52 55 4 32 43 .273 .759
Actual StL 2.36 40 0 3 2 2 53 49 3 30 48 .243 .679
Prorated Tot 4.15 48 0 4 2 0 63 66 5 39 52 .273 .759
Actual Tot 3.77 50 0 3 2 2 62 64 5 39 60 .267 .766
The Cardinals picked up Slocumb after he was released by the
Orioles at the end of April. He joined the team in late May and,
despite missing time with a strained shoulder, pitched much better
than anyone had a right to expect. His low ERA with St. Louis
was deceptive, however, given the high number of base runners
he allowed (13.5 per nine innings) and I wouldn't count on him
to do nearly as well next year. The Cardinals re-signed him to
a two-year contract following the season.
Outlook
Walt Jocketty doesn't believe in standing pat. Once again,
he has ensured that Cardinal fans will have plenty of new faces
to look at in the coming year. Consider the pitching staff alone:
since the end of the season, Oliver and Bottalico left via the
free-agent route, Osborne was released, Jimenez, Acevedo, Aybar,
Croushore and Painter were traded. The newcomers include Darryl
Kile, Pat Hentgen, Andy Benes (signed as a free agent), Dave Veres
and Paul Spoljaric. Who knows? Alan Benes and Matt Morris might
also contend for spots in the crowded starting rotation. All of
this activity should make for an interesting spring as well as
for an improved pitching staff.
The situation is a little more stable among the everyday players.
Fernando Vina will attempt to become the new second baseman, with
Adam Kennedy waiting in the wings if (when?) Vina gets injured
again. Eric Davis will return in the outfield, all but ensuring
plenty of time for reserves like Joe McEwing and Craig Paquette,
while Eli Marrero will try to recover from a dreadful season last
year. The rest of the lineup looks like it should be pretty much
the same, with McGwire hitting 60 or more home runs again (assuming
he can continue to stay as healthy as he has been the past three
years) while the rest of his team tries to make sure that another
39 of those round-trippers don't come in losing causes.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
