This article takes a look at how the San Diego Padres did in
the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some
of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page
called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 705 710
Runs allowed 801 781
Run Margin -96 -71
Wins 71 74
Pythagorean wins 71 73
Placement 5th 4th
After making it all the way to the World Series in 1998, the
Padres quickly went into small-market mode in 1999, shedding most
of their high-salaried veterans. The team didn't put up much of
a fight to keep its marquee free agents (Steve Finley, Kevin Brown,
and Ken Caminiti) and traded the only big power hitter it had
left (Greg Vaughn) before the start of spring training.
San Diego, having acquired public funding for a new stadium
after the '98 season, went the route of other teams like Pittsburgh
and Cincinnati. As the Padres went with younger (and much cheaper)
players in 1999, they played accordingly. While Caminiti and Finley
(and very nearly Vaughn) were helping their new teams win division
titles, the new-look Padres never really had a chance.
The only bright spot in an otherwise dismal season came in
the second half of June and the first part of July when the club
reeled off 14 straight victories and won 23 of 29 games to move
within shouting distance of first place. Unfortunately, the Pads
came back down to earth quickly, losing 11 of 12 after that surprising
run, and quickly fell back into the second division of the NL
West. By October, San Diego had to fight to avoid finishing in
the cellar, and wound up a distant 26 games behind the front-running
Diamondbacks.
Key Position Players
Tony Gwynn is an amazing hitter. Even though he's put on a
few more pounds and has been hobbled by nagging injuries in recent
seasons, he shows few signs of slowing down as a hitter (for average,
at least). But he can't do it all himself.
Even with Gwynn hitting nearly .340, San Diego still finished
next to last in the league in runs last season. However, the only
big move the club made to bolster its lineup was to send Reggie
Sanders, Quilvio Veras and Wally Joyner to Atlanta for Bret Boone
and Ryan Klesko. Even at his worst -- and when he's bad, he's
really bad -- Klesko is likely to be an improvement over Joyner
at first. But losing the production Sanders gave the Padres a
year ago will offset the boost Klesko will add.
Young shortstop Damian Jackson stole 34 bases, but he had a
lackluster batting average. Ben Davis was passable at the plate
for a rookie and decent behind it. Phil Nevin had a surprising
comeback year in '99 after many thought his career was finished.
However, none of those players has showed any long-term consistency,
leaving many doubts about how they'll perform in the upcoming
season.
Ben Davis, c, age 22 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 70 16 4 0 2 8 10 1 3 0 9 0 0 .229 .267 .371 .638 7
Prorated SD 273 62 15 0 7 31 39 3 11 0 35 0 0 .227 .262 .359 .621 24
Actual SD 266 65 14 1 5 29 30 0 25 3 70 2 1 .244 .307 .361 .668 28
Davis joined the Padres on June 24 after hitting .308 with
seven homers at Triple-A. Given a good look by the big club, Davis
batted .344 with three homers in July before tailing below .200
in each of the final two months. While he improved his strike
zone judgment late in the year, walking 13 times in September,
his sharp late-season dip is cause for concern.
The 22-year-old former first-round pick came to the majors
with a good arm, and NL runners were fairly careful on base. However,
Ben tossed out only 31% of the runners who tried to steal against
him, a rate that didn't rank among the league's best receivers.
Davis is highly touted for his talents. His tools promise dramatic
improvement in both sides of the game, and the Padres will give
him every chance to grow into the regular job.
Greg Myers, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 386 96 22 1 8 41 48 0 31 3 66 0 1 .249 .302 .373 .675 41
Prorated SD 129 32 7 0 2 13 16 0 10 1 22 0 0 .248 .300 .349 .649 13
Actual SD 128 37 4 0 3 9 15 0 13 2 14 0 0 .289 .355 .391 .745 17
Prorated Atl 79 19 4 0 1 8 9 0 6 0 13 0 0 .241 .294 .329 .623 7
Actual Atl 72 16 2 0 2 10 9 0 13 2 16 0 0 .222 .337 .333 .671 9
Prorated Tot 208 51 11 0 4 22 25 0 16 1 35 0 0 .245 .298 .356 .654 21
Actual Tot 200 53 6 0 5 19 24 0 26 4 30 0 0 .265 .348 .370 .718 26
The well-traveled receiver took over regular duties for San
Diego after Carlos Hernandez went down with an Achilles tendon
tear in spring training. Myers hit .345 in April and .375 in May,
getting most of his at-bats against right-handers, but sagged
in June before being dealt to the Braves. He tossed out just seven
of the 33 runners who tried to steal against him with San Diego.
Myers seems to have a knack for brief spurts of modest offensive
production (like the .745 OPS he had in San Diego) that earn him
a trade to a contender looking for veteran help at catcher. While
he's probably better than some Triple-A retread at this point,
that's not saying much.
Jim Leyritz, c/1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 195 50 8 0 6 23 28 5 29 1 45 0 0 .256 .362 .390 .752 29
Prorated SD 128 33 5 0 3 15 18 3 19 0 29 0 0 .258 .364 .367 .731 18
Actual SD 134 32 5 0 8 17 21 4 15 1 37 0 0 .239 .331 .455 .786 20
Prorated NYA 66 16 2 0 2 7 9 1 9 0 15 0 0 .242 .338 .364 .701 8
Actual NYA 66 15 4 1 0 8 5 0 13 1 17 0 0 .227 .354 .318 .673 8
Prorated Tot 195 50 8 0 6 23 28 5 29 1 45 0 0 .256 .362 .390 .752 29
Actual Tot 200 47 9 1 8 25 26 4 28 2 54 0 0 .235 .339 .410 .749 28
Still a fine hitter with power, Leyritz started the year with
San Diego, which needed a healthy catcher. He batted just .200
against NL left-handers, but did sock five homers against them
in just 55 at-bats. While he usually does his best hitting in
April, Leyritz started poorly for the Padres and never really
got on track.
There were reasons for this lack of production. Jim suffered
a bruised thumb late in April and, in June, was hit by a pitch
and missed a month with a broken hand. By the time Leyritz returned
to action, Ben Davis had established himself as a regular, and
the well-traveled vet was dealt back to the Yankees.
Wiki Gonzalez, c, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual SD 83 21 2 1 3 7 12 1 1 0 8 0 0 .253 .271 .410 .680 7
Once a Pirates' farmhand, Gonzalez earned a late-season ticket
to San Diego by hitting .338 at AA and .295 at AAA. Neither performance
is all that impressive in context, though, as he was pretty old
to be playing in AA and his AAA stats were compiled in Las Vegas.
Wiki threw out three of eleven base-stealers in his 17 games
behind the dish in his debut. In his 43 at-bats last season against
right-handers, Gonzalez hit a loud .349 (two doubles, two homers,
eight RBI). (That pattern was a reverse of what he did in Double-A
last year, so it probably isn't going to hold up.) A contact hitter
who doesn't walk much, Gonzalez isn't likely to be a regular but
ought to be hang for a spell due to his arm.
Carlos Hernandez, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 72 19 3 0 2 6 9 1 2 0 10 0 0 .264 .293 .389 .682 7
After a fine 1998 performance, Hernandez was hoping that his
'99 would propel him to the top of the league's class. Unfortunately,
he tore an Achilles tendon in spring training and did not appear
in a single game. Should he be healthy this spring, Hernandez
will probably start, either for San Diego or somewhere else.
Wally Joyner, 1b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 564 168 37 1 15 73 97 2 70 8 60 2 3 .298 .373 .447 .820 94
Prorated SD 338 100 22 0 9 43 58 1 42 4 36 1 1 .296 .371 .441 .812 56
Actual SD 323 80 14 2 5 34 43 2 58 6 54 0 1 .248 .363 .350 .713 44
Joyner took another step down the ladder in 1999. Injuries
(a broken collarbone, back problems, and a sore shoulder) hampered
his batting, and he was mediocre against lefties (.247, .772 OPS
in limited action) and ineffective against righties (.248, .692
OPS). Other than two warm streaks in July and September -- they
really weren't good enough to be called "hot" -- the
veteran was virtually powerless all year.
Joyner probably has some improvement in him at the plate if
he is healthy, but his time as a regular is clearly over. Dealt
to Atlanta over the winter, Wally will be around as a substitute
and pinch-hitter as long as he wants. He can still get on base
when healthy and should be a first-class late-inning defensive
substitute.
Quilvio Veras, 2b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 533 142 23 2 5 80 44 6 85 1 75 27 11 .266 .371 .345 .716 77
Prorated SD 459 122 19 1 4 68 37 5 73 0 64 23 9 .266 .370 .338 .708 65
Actual SD 475 133 25 2 6 95 41 2 65 0 88 30 16 .280 .368 .379 .747 70
Veras' talent is clear. He is excellent at turning the double
play, hits for average, will draw the walk, and can run. Plus,
he's always had hands good enough to play second base effectively.
Veras continued his improvement against left-handed pitching in
1999, batting .288 with good power. He was traded to Atlanta in
the off-season.
Quilvio still has things to work on, however. Veras was inconsistent
at the plate last year, falling into slumps and not hitting with
much pop until September. In addition, he has never been a great
percentage base stealer and, in 1999, he was thrown out far too
often for comfort. Finally, there is the question of health. Veras
spent time on the DL in August with a strained right quadriceps;
he has a chronically bad left shoulder and has also suffered from
recurring hamstring troubles.
Carlos Baerga, 3b/2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 71 18 4 0 1 7 7 1 2 0 7 0 0 .254 .280 .352 .632 6
Prorated Cle 59 15 3 0 0 5 5 0 1 0 5 0 0 .254 .267 .305 .572 4
Actual Cle 57 13 0 0 1 4 5 0 4 1 10 1 1 .228 .274 .281 .555 4
Prorated SD 84 21 4 0 1 8 8 1 2 0 8 0 0 .250 .273 .333 .606 7
Actual SD 80 20 1 0 2 6 5 2 6 0 14 1 0 .250 .318 .338 .656 9
Prorated Tot 143 36 8 0 2 14 14 2 4 0 14 0 0 .252 .278 .350 .628 12
Actual Tot 137 33 1 0 3 10 10 2 10 1 24 2 1 .241 .300 .314 .614 12
"Nine-lives" Baerga, a bloated and complacent former
star, had played himself out of the majors by the start of the
1999 season even though he was only 30 years old. He started the
season in the Cardinals' spring camp, but was released in mid-March
when it became apparent that he couldn't or wouldn't do what it
took to return to playing form. The Reds then signed him to a
minor league deal. He played 52 games at AAA Indianapolis, hitting
an empty .290, before he asked for and received his release.
The Padres signed him to a minor league contract, where he
played tolerably well in 21 games before being purchased on June
29 to bolster the Padres' infield. In San Diego, Carlos didn't
hit at all, nor did he show that he could cover the necessary
ground at second or third. Despite that, Cleveland picked him
up in mid-August as infield insurance when Travis Fryman wasn't
ready to return, but Baerga played even worse there than in San
Diego.
David Newhan, 2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual SD 43 6 1 0 2 7 6 0 1 0 11 2 1 .140 .159 .302 .461 2
The son of baseball beat writer Ross Newhan got into a handful
of games with the Padres, but isn't considered one of the organization's
infield prospects. David served three tours of duty in San Diego
but was completely overmatched at the plate. He did show above-average
mobility at second base and clouted both his homers in September,
where he collected three hits in 17 at-bats.
Damian Jackson, ss/2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 66 15 3 0 1 11 5 1 6 0 13 3 1 .227 .297 .318 .615 7
Prorated SD 393 89 17 0 5 65 29 5 35 0 77 17 5 .226 .295 .308 .602 40
Actual SD 388 87 20 2 9 56 39 3 53 3 105 34 11 .224 .320 .356 .676 50
The Padres needed Jackson to come through in the leadoff spot
last year, and he took enough walks, showed enough power, and
stole bases well enough to succeed -- had he hit for a reasonable
average. He hit only .199 in road contests and only .188 versus
left-handed hurlers. June was by far his only good month: Jackson
batted .276 with 16 of his walks and slugged .439. However, he
lost his touch in July and sagged below the .200 mark over the
last two months.
The former Reds' infielder was also a mixed bag defensively.
His range was good (and far better than that of Chris Gomez, whose
job he took), but Jackson also made 25 errors, fielding a poor
.940, 28 points below league average. Despite his poor overall
season, Jackson was still more productive than Gomez, and deserves
the full-time job. With more experience, he might be able to improve
his offense enough to contribute a bit.
Chris Gomez, ss, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 495 130 28 2 5 60 46 6 59 5 93 3 4 .263 .346 .358 .704 62
Prorated SD 230 60 13 0 2 27 21 2 27 2 43 1 1 .261 .342 .343 .686 27
Actual SD 234 59 8 1 1 20 15 1 27 3 49 1 2 .252 .331 .308 .638 24
Gomez and Damian Jackson split time at shortstop last season,
but not entirely by choice. Gomez missed most of June and July
with a knee injury that required surgery. When Gomez returned,
he hit well (.291 in September), but struggled to get to balls
in the field. His mobility was never great prior to the injury,
and it remains to be seen whether Chris can come back strong from
his problems -- a knee injury is a shortstop's nightmare defensively.
Even if healthy, Gomez is little more than a stopgap solution.
He has never lived up to his early promise, failing to hit for
power or average, showing no speed, and failing to develop into
a top-grade defender. He can't have much time left as a regular
-- if he has any.
Phil Nevin, 3b/c/1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 69 15 3 0 2 8 9 1 5 0 19 0 0 .217 .280 .348 .628 7
Prorated SD 405 88 17 0 11 47 52 5 29 0 111 0 0 .217 .278 .341 .619 39
Actual SD 383 103 27 0 24 52 85 1 51 1 82 1 0 .269 .352 .527 .880 73
Former Astros, Tigers, and Angels hopeful Nevin emerged as
the best option of the three-headed hydra that played third base
last season for San Diego. Outlasting Dave Magadan and George
Arias to win the job outright, Nevin finished second on the club
in homers, led the team in RBIs, and showed his mettle in the
field by playing five different positions.
At the hot corner, Nevin made just three errors in 67 games
and showed plus range. Once he got into the lineup on a regular
basis, he also got hot at the plate. In August, Nevin hit .306
with ten homers and 36 RBIs in 111 at-bats. He also took 14 walks
that month. Nevin also hit well against pitchers from both sides,
which is the clincher to making him an everyday player this season.
At age 29, however, he's not likely to have a long career as a
full-time player.
Dave Magadan, 3b/1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 65 18 3 0 1 7 6 0 10 0 9 0 0 .277 .373 .369 .743 9
Prorated SD 260 72 12 0 4 28 24 0 40 0 36 0 0 .277 .373 .369 .743 37
Actual SD 248 68 12 1 2 20 30 0 45 2 36 1 3 .274 .377 .355 .732 34
Dave had another typical Magadan season in 1999 -- he hit for
average, took plenty of walks, provided little power or speed,
and played third base with a steady glove but subpar range. As
long as he can hit, he'll be around: When a team gets Dave Magadan,
they know what he'll give. Only 38 of his at-bats came against
left-handed pitching.
George Arias, 3b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 568 137 30 3 24 73 90 6 39 3 113 1 2 .241 .294 .431 .726 70
Prorated SD 155 37 8 0 6 20 24 1 10 0 30 0 0 .239 .287 .406 .694 18
Actual SD 164 40 8 0 7 20 20 0 6 0 54 0 0 .244 .271 .421 .691 17
Arias, regarded as a real prospect a few years ago, bombed
out with San Diego after being handed the job in the spring. He
was almost immediately disabled with a thumb injury suffered in
early April and, when he came back, Arias didn't hit much. He
showed no ability to control the count at the plate, striking
out in roughly a third of his at-bats, and didn't provide the
power the club needed. He did show fine mobility at third base
in limited duty there, even though he had trouble throwing. Unfortunately,
George fielded just .940 and started but four double plays. The
Padres designated Arias for assignment on August 4, and outrighted
him to Triple-A shortly thereafter.
Ed Giovanola, 3b/2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 64 15 2 1 0 8 5 0 8 0 9 0 0 .234 .315 .297 .612 7
Prorated SD 58 13 1 0 0 7 4 0 7 0 8 0 0 .224 .308 .241 .549 5
Actual SD 58 11 0 1 0 10 3 0 9 0 8 2 0 .190 .294 .224 .518 5
Injuries to other players gave the veteran infielder an opportunity
with San Diego, but Giovanola didn't hit enough to merit another
look. He is a good enough shortstop to be a big-league utility
player, but the Padres have other options and Giovanola has never
provided enough punch to be a priority anywhere.
Reggie Sanders, lf/rf/cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 543 137 20 4 22 89 69 7 58 4 154 23 11 .252 .331 .425 .757 76
Prorated SD 487 122 17 3 19 79 61 6 52 3 138 20 9 .251 .330 .415 .744 67
Actual SD 478 136 24 7 26 92 72 6 65 1 108 36 13 .285 .376 .527 .904 97
Just when most baseball people had written the talented but
injury-riddled Sanders off, he enjoyed his best season in the
relative obscurity of San Diego. Although Sanders did suffer from
minor injuries to his side, hand, hip, back, and hamstring in
1999, he still put in his second straight solid season.
A return to form against southpaws (.945 OPS) was largely responsible
for his fine performance, and Sanders batted .286 or higher in
the middle four months of the season. However, poor showings in
April and September (for the second straight time) beg the question
of whether Sanders would be better off sitting through his nagging
injuries rather than playing before he's ready or steadily wearing
down.
A fine right fielder, Sanders was very comfortable and productive
at his natural spot in 1999 but didn't play as well when deployed
in center.
Eric Owens, lf/cf/rf/1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 92 24 3 1 2 13 9 0 8 0 13 5 2 .261 .317 .380 .697 11
Prorated SD 441 115 14 4 9 62 43 0 38 0 62 24 9 .261 .317 .372 .689 52
Actual SD 440 117 22 3 9 55 61 3 38 2 50 33 7 .266 .327 .391 .718 58
Owens' speed and hustle impressed Padres manager Bruce Bochy
in spring training, and the well-traveled utility player won a
regular job alternating between outfield positions and also playing
some first base. Eric showed average range and excellent hands
at all three outfield spots-including center-in 1999, making him
very valuable. While he didn't get on base enough to be a leadoff
hitter, Owens hit with enough power and ran well enough to provide
some value to the San Diego attack.
One consistent problem for Owens is his poor performance in
the last two months of the season. After a productive first four
months in 2000, which included a .325 mark in July, Owens sagged
to .212 in August and .211 in September.
John Vander Wal, lf/1b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 78 18 5 0 2 10 10 0 10 0 23 0 0 .231 .318 .372 .690 10
Prorated SD 255 58 16 0 6 32 32 0 32 0 75 0 0 .227 .314 .361 .674 30
Actual SD 246 67 18 0 6 26 41 2 37 1 59 2 1 .272 .368 .419 .787 40
Vander Wal's power and on-base ability have won him a job as
a premier pinch hitter/fifth outfielder/reserve first sacker for
several big-league teams. John enjoyed another productive year
in '99, playing more than he ever has previously in his big-league
career.
Of course, Vander Wal is limited. Although a decent first baseman
and left fielder, he is unable to help in center or right, and
as a true platoon player, he had but 18 at-bats against southpaws
all season. He also was a very ineffective offensively down the
stretch -- not that San Diego was playing any important games
late in 1999.
Ruben Rivera, cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 535 114 21 3 16 76 71 6 67 1 164 20 5 .213 .306 .353 .659 63
Prorated SD 413 88 16 2 12 58 54 4 51 0 126 15 3 .213 .304 .349 .652 48
Actual SD 411 80 16 1 23 65 48 5 55 1 143 18 7 .195 .295 .406 .701 51
Rivera experienced a truly strange 1999 campaign. He showed
tremendous power, good speed, a strong arm, and above-average
range in center field -- all attributes that should point the
way toward stardom for the former Yankees' hopeful who was considered
to be a five-tool prospect. Unfortunately for Rivera, he hasn't
yet learned how to hit a lick, looking overmatched for much of
the season against both lefties and righties, at home and on the
road. His best month was July, in which he batted .294 with six
homers. However, he then hit a pathetic .139 in August and followed
that up with a .147 September performance.
Rivera's extreme trouble with breaking pitches and his unwillingness
to listen to advice from his coaches could keep him from ever
getting over the hump, but his youth and balance of skills --
plus San Diego's lack of other options -- argue against giving
up right now.
Tony Gwynn, rf, age 39
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 583 194 43 1 15 86 93 2 44 10 23 7 3 .333 .376 .487 .863 105
Prorated SD 406 135 29 0 10 59 64 1 30 6 16 4 2 .333 .375 .478 .853 71
Actual SD 411 139 27 0 10 59 62 2 29 5 14 7 2 .338 .381 .477 .858 72
Hamstring, knee, and calf injuries robbed Gwynn of playing
time in 1999 but, when he was in there, he was outstanding at
the dish. A .412 average in April and .365 marks in both August
and September speak to his value when physically able to play.
He's still one of the most productive hitters in the league.
However, his play in right field now hurts the team. While
Gwynn has good hands, committing just one error last year, his
range is very poor and has been for some time. Tony's pride most
likely won't allow him to move to first base but, at this point,
it's something the Padres might want to consider. Gwynn says he
wants to play at least two more seasons, but can San Diego live
with his defense even if they can afford his demands to have his
relatively modest salary increased substantially?
Mike Darr, rf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 70 16 4 0 0 11 9 0 4 0 10 3 1 .229 .267 .286 .552 5
Prorated SD 49 11 2 0 0 7 6 0 2 0 7 2 0 .224 .255 .265 .520 3
Actual SD 48 13 1 0 2 6 3 0 5 0 18 2 1 .271 .340 .417 .756 7
Darr, an overachiever without great tools, hit well enough
and showed enough hustle in a brief trial last year to put himself
in contention for a regular job in 2000. However, he is more likely
to end up as a platoon player or a fourth outfielder. While he
is neither speedy nor blessed with great range, he didn't commit
an error in 112 innings of outfield play last season for the Padres.
Gary Matthews Jr., rf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 65 15 3 1 1 11 10 0 9 0 14 2 0 .231 .320 .354 .674 8
Prorated SD 39 9 1 0 0 6 6 0 5 0 8 1 0 .231 .318 .256 .574 5
Actual SD 36 8 0 0 0 4 7 0 9 0 9 2 0 .222 .378 .222 .600 4
The Padres are very high on Matthews, but it's tough to see
where he fits. He played all three outfield spots last season
in San Diego, but a poor performance at AAA Las Vegas (.258, nine
homers) casts doubt over his immediate future. It was his first
exposure to AAA pitching, which means he'll probably improve those
numbers if he's sent down at the start of the season, but a good
prospect a Matthews' age should be pounding minor league hurlers.
Key Pitchers
San Diego has one of the top closers in all of baseball in
Trevor Hoffman. He has been solid as a rock, averaging 43 saves
in 47.5 chances (converting more than nine of out 10 save opportunities)
over the past four seasons. But it doesn't do much good to have
a guy like Hoffman around if the rest of the staff is so mediocre.
The Padres enter spring training with a bunch of promising,
but as-yet unproven arms. However, the club doesn't have a top-flight
starter to help lead the way. With Andy Ashby now gone to Philadelphia
in a salary-related move, Sterling Hitchcock and Woody Williams
are the top two guys in the rotation, but neither would be a top
starter for a contending club. Matt Clement, Adam Eaton and Buddy
Carlyle all have a lot of potential, but it's too much to ask
for them to be consistent winners.
Sterling Hitchcock, starter, age 28 (as of July 1, 1999)
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.87 32 32 10 12 0 192 206 30 63 143 .275 .794
Prorated SD 4.87 34 34 11 13 0 206 221 32 68 153 .275 .794
Actual SD 4.11 33 33 12 14 0 206 202 29 76 194 .254 .745
While Hitchcock isn't a top-grade starting pitcher, he takes
the ball and has the ability to get strikeouts when he needs them.
Durability and stuff are good things to have, especially if you
throw from the port side. As he did in 1998, Hitchcock benefited
greatly last year from pitching half his games in San Diego. His
home ERA was 3.16, while on the road it was a far less impressive
5.18. The left--oddly-was 1-5 in September despite a fine 3.16
ERA.
Possibly because of his breaking-ball focus, Hitchcock rarely
shows a significant platoon split. In fact, last season, left-handed
batters slugged .468 against him, 54 points higher than right-handed
hitters. A nagging left ankle injury hampered him for much of
the 1999 season, and he is said to be in better health now.
Woody Williams, starter, age 32
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.35 32 32 12 12 0 211 201 35 74 155 .250 .758
Prorated SD 4.35 32 32 12 12 0 209 199 35 73 153 .250 .758
Actual SD 4.41 33 33 12 12 0 208 213 33 73 137 .268 .791
Williams made the transition to the NL with little trouble,
doing exactly what the Padres asked him to do. He and Sterling
Hitchcock paced the team in starts, and Williams led the club
in innings though he did not complete a game.
One reason Woody did not suffer while moving to the NL is that
he moved from a good home park (SkyDome) to a better one (Qualcomm).
His ERA at home in his initial San Diego season was 3.16; on the
road it was 4.99. Though he's not a big fastball pitcher, he shows
a day/night pattern typical of big power pitchers and has rarely
been effective in day games. In 1999, Williams was 11-6 at night
with a 3.08 ERA; he was just 1-6, 7.51 in the sunshine.
Last year was the third straight season that Williams has made
between 31 and 33 starts and posted ERAs between 4.35 and 4.46.
A pitcher of such a consistent though unspectacular level can
make a good living in the major leagues and is more valuable than
many realize.
Andy Ashby, starter, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.25 32 32 12 12 0 214 225 24 55 132 .273 .741
Prorated SD 4.25 31 31 12 12 0 206 216 23 53 127 .273 .741
Actual SD 3.80 31 31 14 10 0 206 204 26 54 132 .258 .717
In his final season with San Diego, Ashby posted another fine
set of numbers despite suffering a painful back injury, diagnosed
as a protruding disk. Unlike most of his Padres' mound mates,
Ashby was more effective on the road (9-4, 3.42) during 1999.
As usual, Andy slumped late in the season, posting a 4.91 ERA
in September. Ashby has worn down significantly late in the season
in recent years.
A consistently effective pitcher, Ashby has posted ERAs under
4.00 for all but two of his big league seasons (and one of those
two was spent in Colorado). Health is his only concern -- though
now it's the Phillies' concern as they try to ink him to a long-term
contract. Andy has made 30 or more starts and hurled 200-plus
innings in each of the last three seasons, a performance he should
be able to replicate if his back problem doesn't flare up again.
Matt Clement, starter, age 24
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.57 32 32 11 11 0 183 180 18 99 169 .259 .768
Prorated SD 4.57 31 31 11 11 0 177 174 17 96 163 .259 .768
Actual SD 4.48 31 31 10 12 0 181 190 18 86 135 .273 .765
Spending 1999 as the Pads' fourth starter, Clement had his
good days as well as his bad ones. Control was often a problem
for him, as he too often fell behind in the count to left-handed
hitters and was stomped by them (.319 average, .836 OPS). Clement
was lucky to pitch in San Diego; his home ERA was 3.66, while
on the road he was far less effective (5.79 ERA).
What was the most encouraging thing about Clement's season?
His September, where he was 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in five starts
and fanned 27 in 32.1 innings. Clearly, the Padres have a live
one on their hands; if the last month of '99 is any indication,
he could be ready to take the ball every fourth day from now on..
Stan Spencer, starter, age 29
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.40 27 27 7 10 0 153 148 27 50 143 .253 .762
Prorated SD 4.40 8 8 2 3 0 43 42 8 14 40 .253 .762
Actual SD 9.16 9 8 0 7 0 38 56 11 11 36 .335 .979
Spencer, an overlooked pitcher with good stuff, just didn't
get over the hump in 1999. Given a chance to win a starting job,
he seemed to have a knack for making the wrong pitch at the wrong
time and was bombed right out of the league. It's unclear whether
he'll ever be allowed back.
Buddy Carlyle, starter, age 21
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual SD 5.97 7 7 1 3 0 38 36 7 17 29 .257 .849
The fuzzy-cheeked right-hander, filched from the Reds in a
1998 deal, is not a hard thrower but has been very effective in
his short career. After a 11-8 mark and a 4.89 ERA at AAA Las
Vegas last season, he joined the Padres' rotation for the last
five weeks.
Buddy struggled in his initial big-league exposure, but he
has plenty of time to turn things around. NL left-handers hit
.323 against Carlyle and slugged .629 in 62 at-bats, while righties
(.205) were nearly helpless. Carlyle may not make the rotation
this year and could probably use another year at AAA to further
refine his game. There's plenty of time for him to gain the requisite
experience and no need for San Diego to rush him.
Brian Boehringer, swing man, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.98 34 4 3 4 0 69 71 9 38 62 .267 .796
Prorated SD 4.98 44 5 4 5 0 90 93 12 50 81 .267 .796
Actual SD 3.24 33 11 6 5 0 94 97 10 35 64 .267 .707
Blessed with very good stuff, Boehringer had his best season
in 1999. His performance is especially notable considering that
he pitched with a torn rotator cuff for most of the campaign.
He underwent surgery in August to repair the problem and, if healthy,
will be a starting pitcher for 2000.
Last year Boehringer was effective both at home and on the
road, but struggled against right-handed batters (probably a by-product
of his repertoire, which is heavily dependent on curve balls).
He's going to be solid but unspectacular if healthy, but his history
of shoulder and elbow problems doesn't look good right now.
Heath Murray, swing man, age 26
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.92 21 4 2 3 0 49 60 6 22 36 .308 .847
Prorated SD 5.92 22 4 2 3 0 51 63 6 23 38 .308 .847
Actual SD 5.76 22 8 0 4 0 50 60 7 26 25 .297 .837
Murray was a starter all through a successful minor-league
career. He never pitched in relief until brought up to the majors
in 1997 and again with the Padres last year. As a result, he hasn't
been able to find his footing with San Diego. Like many other
young pitchers on the cusp, Heath isn't likely to show what he
can do until he can make more than a handful of starts in a row.
Like many other major league clubs, San Diego didn't help in 1999
by shuffling him up and down between AAA and the majors.
Murray's best month was in June, when (not coincidentally)
he pitched the most. In 25.2 innings (seven games) he whiffed
16 and walked seven, posting a 3.55 ERA.
Donne Wall, middle reliever, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.92 53 0 3 4 0 78 67 10 25 50 .233 .688
Prorated SD 3.92 48 0 3 4 0 71 61 9 23 46 .233 .688
Actual SD 3.07 55 0 7 4 0 70 58 11 23 53 .219 .643
Wall had his second straight effective season pitching in a
bridge role. The bullpen is clearly where he belongs after he
flamed out as a starter in Houston. For the second year in a row,
Wall was death to left-handers, although in '99 he wasn't quite
as solid against righties as he had been in 1998.
However, Donne's home-park performance was far better than
his work on the road, a repeat of his 1998 showing. Wall's ERA
in San Diego during 1999 was a sparkling 1.66, while on the road
it was a not-so-sparkling 4.73. He remains a quite useful veteran
pitcher with little upside.
Carlos Almanzar, middle reliever, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.82 23 0 2 2 0 33 33 5 8 31 .260 .748
Prorated SD 3.82 29 0 3 3 0 41 41 6 10 39 .260 .748
Actual SD 7.47 28 0 0 0 0 37 48 6 15 30 .316 .879
Brought over from Toronto in the Joey Hamilton deal, Almanzar
was frightful (9.53 ERA) in 11 games at AAA Las Vegas and pitched
only slightly more effectively in San Diego. Carlos was used for
short stints with the Padres, and each time seemed to get rocked.
It could be that his game requires more frequent use. Control
was something of a problem for him, but left-handed batters (1.022
OPS) were the real issue.
Will Cunnane, middle reliever, age 25
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.29 13 0 1 1 0 17 20 2 8 13 .299 .809
Prorated SD 5.29 22 0 2 2 0 28 33 3 13 22 .299 .809
Actual SD 5.23 24 0 2 1 0 31 34 8 12 22 .293 .911
The curveballing Cunnane may have to pin his hopes on being
a situational right-handed reliever. In 78 at-bats against righties
last year, he held them to a .231 batting average -- unfortunately,
they also clouted six home runs. Left-handed hitters tattooed
Will to a .421 average and slugged .658. The Padres believe that
they can find a better solution; Cunnane will have to come up
with another pitch to get portsiders out or he won't have much
of a big-league career.
Matt Whisenant, middle reliever, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.77 70 0 4 4 1 66 75 5 49 54 .291 .812
Prorated KC 4.77 41 0 2 2 1 39 44 3 29 32 .291 .812
Actual KC 6.35 48 0 4 4 1 40 40 4 26 27 .267 .799
Prorated SD 4.77 13 0 1 1 0 13 14 1 9 10 .291 .812
Actual SD 3.68 19 0 0 1 0 15 10 0 10 10 .200 .573
Prorated Tot 4.77 54 0 3 3 1 51 58 4 38 42 .291 .812
Actual Tot 5.63 67 0 4 5 1 54 50 4 36 37 .250 .743
The hard-throwing lefty had his troubles in Kansas City, but
he was better after the Royals released him and he joined San
Diego. He didn't allow a run in his first seven appearances with
the Padres, although he did not pitch as well in September. Bases
on balls were his bugaboo but, given the quality of his arm, Whisenant
will get another chance to shine again in 2000.
Carlos Reyes, setup reliever, age 30
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.80 40 0 4 3 0 71 71 9 23 48 .262 .724
Prorated SD 3.80 44 0 4 3 0 78 78 10 25 53 .262 .724
Actual SD 3.72 65 0 2 4 1 77 76 11 24 57 .254 .711
Reyes deserves credit for persevering through injuries, releases,
demotions, and bouts of ineffectiveness. Hanging onto his career
by a thread last spring, he made the Padres' staff out of spring
training and turned in a solid season. Allowing nine runs in ten
September innings was the only real tarnish on Reyes' 1999 campaign.
Always around the plate, Reyes does allow his share of homers.
However he is stingy with the walk and is very effective against
right-handed hitters. If he's healthy, Reyes should be effective
in middle relief in Philadelphia, which claimed him off waivers
from San Diego in November.
Dan Miceli, setup reliever, age 28
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.77 70 0 6 4 3 98 93 12 40 87 .251 .731
Prorated SD 3.77 49 0 4 3 2 69 66 8 28 61 .251 .731
Actual SD 4.46 66 0 4 5 2 69 67 7 36 59 .266 .764
A pitcher with good talent and good stuff, Miceli has not often
had the good sense to discipline himself enough to harness his
gifts productively. Last year, he slumped from his career '98
season in San Diego, then was dealt to Florida in November. In
February, he showed up in spring training with a cut hand, attributing
the injury to a bar fight. It turned out that the truth was that
he had a vicious fight with his brother!
As in '98, Dan showed a big gap between his good pitching in
Qualcomm and his pitching everywhere else. Fortunately for him,
he's going to another good pitchers' park in 2000. Whether he
can conquer his demons well enough to conquer enemy hitters again
remains to be seen.
Trevor Hoffman, closer, age 31
Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 1.90 70 0 5 4 51 81 53 6 26 95 .187 .556
Prorated SD 1.90 58 0 4 3 43 67 44 5 22 79 .187 .556
Actual SD 2.14 64 0 2 3 40 67 48 5 15 73 .197 .548
Hoffman didn't pitch as well in '99 as he had the season before,
but he did post the second-best ERA of his career. Finishing second
in the league in saves for a club that ended 74-88 is not an insignificant
achievement. Outstanding control is Trevor's marker. He rarely
leaves the ball up in the strike zone, and his change-up has so
much movement that it's almost always a strike though it's rarely
hittable.
Hoffman really got in gear over the last two months of the
season, pitching 21 times and allowing only two earned runs, 15
hits, and two walks in 23 innings. Fanning 23 hitters in that
span, he went 2-0 with 14 saves. Since he doesn't rely on his
fastball to get hitters out, Hoffman should be able to continue
saving 30-40 games for years to come.
Outlook
It doesn't appear that much is going to change for the Padres
in the upcoming season. Tony Gwynn will probably hit .333 or better
and Trevor Hoffman will probably get another 40 saves but, without
any real support at other positions, the Padres won't be going
anywhere.
The club did improve in some areas in the off-season, most
notably at first base with the addition of Ryan Klesko, but it
is now without a true No. 1 pitcher after trading Andy Ashby to
the Phillies. And while Damian Jackson, Ben Davis and Eric Owens
all should improve at least a little, it's not likely Phil Nevin
will have the same kind of year he did in 1999.
If the offense is to improve, the two players who came from
Atlanta will have to lead the way. In order for that to occur,
Klesko is going to have to learn how to hit left-handed pitching,
and Bret Boone is going to have to stop swinging as hard as he
can at every pitch regardless of location. Considering that neither
player has managed to do those things in the past several years,
those are two awfully big ifs. The younger and more inexperienced
players can't be expected to do everything.
The same is true of the pitching staff. While Buddy Carlyle,
Matt Clement and Adam Eaton all are promising pitchers who may
one day be capable of pitching in the front of the rotation, none
of them is ready for that role yet.
All in all, a weak offense and a porous pitching staff will
make for another long season at the Q. The best that can be hoped
for is that the young players (both hitters and pitchers) come
far enough along to keep the team out of the basement -- and develop
enough to give Padres fans real hope for the future.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
