This article takes a look at how the Toronto Blue Jays did
in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an
overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition
of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview
page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance
Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 821 883
Runs allowed 853 862
Run Margin -32 +21
Wins 78 84
Pythagorean wins 78 83
Placement 4th 3rd
A year ago, some experts felt the Jays could grab the wildcard
if several of their young hitters (Delgado, Stewart, Green) and
hurlers (Carpenter, Escobar, Halladay) blossomed all at once.
The team was coming off an 88-win season that saw them fall only
four games shy of the Red Sox, and it stood to reason that they
could be even better in 1999. Nevertheless, the consensus was
that Toronto was still a year or two away, and our computer simulations
supported that view.
As it turned out, the young hitters did indeed come through
in a big way, and when they managed to steal Tony Batista from
the Diamondbacks, the offense got even better, rising to fifth
in the league in scoring. The young pitchers had respectable seasons
as well, but they didn't get enough help from the older members
(Wells, Hentgen, and Hamilton) of a staff that wound up ninth
in team ERA.
After a 19-7 spurt in July put them in the thick of the wildcard
race, a disappointing stretch run (26-30 in the last two months)
left them in third place, ten games short of a post-season berth.
Key Position Players
Toronto was last in scoring in the AL in 1997, moved up to
8th in 1998, and rose another three places to 5th in 1999. The
offense was built around two great young hitters, Carlos Delgado
and Shawn Green, who combined for 86 homers and 257 RBI. Those
two got plenty of help from every position except DH and CF. Darrin
Fletcher had a bunch of career highs, Homer Bush batted .320 in
his first full season, Tony Fernandez flirted with .400 for three
months, Tony Batista clubbed 26 homers after being acquired to
replace the injured Alex Gonzalez, and Shannon Stewart had another
solid year.
Darrin Fletcher, c, age 32 (as of July 1, 1999)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 376 101 21 1 12 38 53 5 22 5 38 0 0 .269 .314 .426 .739 47
Prorated Tor 411 110 23 1 13 41 58 5 24 5 41 0 0 .268 .312 .423 .736 51
Actual Tor 412 120 26 0 18 48 80 6 26 0 47 0 0 .291 .339 .485 .825 64
These were career bests in batting average, doubles, homers,
runs and RBI. Some that is due to the fact that he played more
in 1999 than in any prior year (despite an orbital bone fracture
that cost him the month of of May), but his rate of production
was up, too. Fletcher's batting average splits (.228 vs lefties,
.306 vs righties) suggest a platoon role, but his on-base and
slugging averages were actually higher against LHP, and that allowed
the Jays to use him as the everyday catcher.
Mike Matheny, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 70 15 3 0 1 6 7 1 3 0 15 0 0 .214 .257 .300 .557 5
Prorated Tor 167 35 7 0 2 14 16 2 7 0 35 0 0 .210 .250 .287 .537 11
Actual Tor 163 35 6 0 3 16 17 1 12 0 37 0 0 .215 .271 .307 .578 14
Matheny has never reached the .250 mark in his 6-year career,
and his walk rate and power aren't anything special, either. Behind
the plate, he doesn't throw all that well. Having acquired Alberto
Castillo in the Pat Hentgen trade, the Jays didn't see any reason
to keep him around. He'll be in camp with the Cardinals, but it's
not clear how much longer he'll be able to hold onto a big-league
job.
Carlos Delgado, 1b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 559 158 44 1 38 96 115 11 72 11 142 1 1 .283 .372 .569 .941 122
Prorated Tor 587 166 46 1 39 100 120 11 75 11 149 1 1 .283 .371 .564 .935 126
Actual Tor 573 156 39 0 44 113 134 15 86 7 141 1 1 .272 .377 .571 .948 128
A terrific season that was right in line with our projections.
His runs and RBI were career bests, thanks to a better group of
hitters around him, but he actually fell a little short of his
1998 production. Finding it impossible to come up with enough
money to pay both Shawn Green and Delgado, the Jays chose to deal
Green to the Dodgers, then signed Delgado to a big three-year
contract. They're saying he'll be the first baseman despite the
presence of a better defender in David Segui.
David Segui, 1b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 569 162 35 1 22 86 84 0 59 7 82 2 1 .285 .348 .466 .814 93
Prorated Sea 342 97 21 0 13 51 50 0 35 4 49 1 0 .284 .346 .459 .806 55
Actual Sea 345 101 22 3 9 43 39 1 32 4 43 1 2 .293 .352 .452 .804 53
Prorated Tor 93 26 5 0 3 14 13 0 9 1 13 0 0 .280 .340 .430 .770 14
Actual Tor 95 30 5 0 5 14 13 0 8 0 17 0 0 .316 .365 .526 .892 19
Prorated Tot 435 123 26 0 16 65 64 0 45 5 62 1 0 .283 .346 .453 .799 69
Actual Tot 440 131 27 3 14 57 52 1 40 4 60 1 2 .298 .355 .468 .823 72
Segui has been very consistent for the past five years, giving
four different teams a good batting average, decent walk rate,
moderate power, and sure-handed defense. Most reports indicate
that the Jays didn't really want him back for 2000. They offered
him arbitration, gambling that he'd be signed as a free agent
somewhere and they'd get draft compensation in return. But the
market wasn't there (the Mets, for example, opted to replace John
Olerud with Todd Zeile), and Segui accepted the arbitration offer
and remained with the Jays. Given this turn of events, plus Delgado's
presence, it won't be a surprise if Segui is dealt before opening
day.
Homer Bush, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 602 156 25 0 6 90 43 3 30 0 133 23 13 .259 .294 .331 .625 59
Prorated Tor 480 124 19 0 4 71 34 2 23 0 106 18 10 .258 .292 .323 .615 45
Actual Tor 485 155 26 4 5 69 55 6 21 0 82 32 8 .320 .353 .421 .774 74
Bush's 1999 OPS was right around the AL average for second
basemen. Given that he's also a very good fielder, bunter and
baserunner, and that he's young enough to have his best years
ahead of him, the Jays rewarded him with a nice three-year contract
after the season. Interestingly, his career average is now .328
in 567 major-league atbats, and that's quite a bit better than
the level he established in AA and AAA. Is he one of the few guys
who hits better in the big leagues, or will Bush come back to
earth a bit? The 2000 season should go a long way toward answering
this question.
Pat Kelly, 2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 67 14 3 0 2 10 6 1 6 0 17 3 1 .209 .284 .343 .627 7
Prorated Tor 116 24 5 0 3 17 10 1 10 0 29 5 1 .207 .276 .328 .603 11
Actual Tor 116 31 7 0 6 17 20 0 10 0 23 0 1 .267 .318 .483 .801 18
Kelly lost the prime of his career to a series of injuries.
He's been healthy for a couple of years now, but he hasn't been
given a lot of playing time. He contributed nicely in 1999, but
had nowhere to go on a team with Bush, Alex Gonzalez, and Tony
Batista ahead of him. So he's now one of several 2Bs the Angels
are looking at this spring.
Craig Grebeck, 2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 66 16 4 0 0 6 5 1 6 0 8 0 0 .242 .315 .303 .618 6
Prorated Tor 118 28 7 0 0 10 9 1 10 0 14 0 0 .237 .302 .297 .599 11
Actual Tor 113 41 7 0 0 18 10 2 15 0 13 0 0 .363 .443 .425 .868 23
Grebeck has been a super sub for years, able to play terrific
defense at second and other infield positions, but contributing
little with the bat most of the time. This was an exception, as
his bat came alive in a limited role but his defense wasn't up
to his usual standards. A foot injury bothered him for most of
the year and put him on the DL for almost half the season. If
he's healthy in 2000, his defensive range might return, and his
1999 batting average might earn him another shot at a utility
role.
Tony Fernandez, 3b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 204 61 13 1 4 29 27 3 15 1 22 4 3 .299 .353 .431 .784 30
Prorated Tor 519 155 33 2 10 73 68 7 38 2 56 10 7 .299 .351 .428 .779 77
Actual Tor 485 159 41 0 6 73 75 10 77 11 62 6 7 .328 .427 .449 .877 97
Fernandez took a serious run at batting .400 for the first
half of the season, then faded in the second half. Once a top
defensive shortstop, Fernandez is now well below average in the
field, and the Jays chose not to bring him back. If Alex Gonzalez
is healthy, the 3B job is expected to go to Tony Batista in 2000.
Fernandez is on track to play in Japan this year.
Willis Otanez, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 94 23 4 0 5 13 13 1 6 1 19 0 0 .245 .294 .447 .741 12
Prorated Bal 82 20 3 0 4 11 11 0 5 0 16 0 0 .244 .287 .427 .714 10
Actual Bal 80 17 3 0 2 7 11 1 6 0 16 0 0 .213 .273 .325 .598 7
Prorated Tor 126 30 5 0 6 17 17 1 8 1 25 0 0 .238 .287 .421 .707 15
Actual Tor 127 32 8 0 5 21 13 1 9 0 30 0 0 .252 .307 .433 .740 16
Prorated Tot 208 50 8 0 11 28 28 2 13 2 42 0 0 .240 .289 .438 .726 26
Actual Tot 207 49 11 0 7 28 24 2 15 0 46 0 0 .237 .293 .391 .685 23
A defensive liability whose bat (24 HR at AAA Rochester in
1998) has given him a shot, Otanez hasn't produced enough in the
majors to earn a regular job. The Orioles had seen enough, waiving
him in June, and he didn't do enough with the Jays to move to
the top of their depth chart, either.
Alex Gonzalez, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 546 130 28 2 14 65 51 6 33 1 120 18 6 .238 .287 .374 .661 58
Prorated Tor 157 37 8 0 4 18 14 1 9 0 34 5 1 .236 .281 .363 .644 16
Actual Tor 154 45 13 0 2 22 12 3 16 0 23 4 2 .292 .370 .416 .786 24
A long time ago (1994), in a place far away (Syracuse), Gonzalez
hit .284/.361/.435 as a 21-year-old in his first crack at AAA,
earning recognition as one of the top SS prospects in the game.
From 1995-98, as the Jays everyday shortstop, Gonzalez maxed out
at a .239 average, exhibited a terrible K/BB ratio, and produced
only a modest amount of power (peaking at 14 homers in 1996).
His 1999 start was the first time he's showed anything like
what he did in the minors, but a shoulder injury ended his season
in May, and we didn't get a chance to find out if this was just
a little hot streak or a sign that he's ready to put it all together.
Tony Batista, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 552 145 30 3 24 82 71 5 40 0 100 5 4 .263 .316 .458 .774 77
Prorated Ari 149 39 8 0 6 22 19 1 10 0 27 1 1 .262 .311 .436 .747 19
Actual Ari 144 37 5 0 5 16 21 2 16 3 17 2 0 .257 .335 .396 .731 21
Prorated Tor 373 98 20 2 16 55 48 3 27 0 67 3 2 .263 .315 .456 .771 51
Actual Tor 375 107 25 1 26 61 79 4 22 1 79 2 0 .285 .328 .565 .893 67
Prorated Tot 523 137 28 2 22 77 67 4 37 0 94 4 3 .262 .313 .449 .763 70
Actual Tot 519 144 30 1 31 77 100 6 38 4 96 4 0 .277 .330 .518 .848 88
In our review of the Diamondbacks, Sherri Nichols asked why
anyone would trade a guy like Batista (18 HR in 283 atbats in
1998) for an aging lefty reliever (Dan Plesac 37 years old). I
spent much of the summer wondering the same thing as I watched
Batista maintain the blistering homer pace he set the year before.
Even though his average and power held steady, I'm a little concerned
about his deteriorating BB/K ratio late in the season (9 walks,
51 strikeouts after August 1).
Shannon Stewart, lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 616 172 36 6 12 104 67 14 75 2 87 50 18 .279 .369 .416 .785 102
Prorated Tor 589 164 34 5 11 99 64 13 71 1 83 47 17 .278 .368 .409 .777 96
Actual Tor 608 185 28 2 11 102 67 8 59 0 83 37 14 .304 .371 .411 .782 96
Not a star, at least not yet, but a very handy guy to have
around. His on-base percentage and speed make him a solid leadoff
hitter, and he has enough range to play center. Because of a past
football-related shoulder injury, I've seen reports that question
his ability to throw, but there's no statistical evidence that
opposing runners have been taking extra bases on him, so he must
be compensating with the ability to reach the ball and get into
throwing position quickly.
Geronimo Berroa, lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 223 57 11 1 8 31 30 2 26 1 50 0 1 .256 .336 .422 .757 31
Prorated Tor 64 16 3 0 2 8 8 0 7 0 14 0 0 .250 .324 .391 .715 8
Actual Tor 62 12 3 0 1 11 6 2 9 0 15 0 0 .194 .315 .290 .605 5
He's had two bad seasons in a row, and he can't really play
defense any more, so I'm not surprised that the Jays released
him at the trading deadline. The Dodgers have invited him to spring
training, so he'll get another chance to show that he's still
got the swing that produced 62 homers in 1996-97.
Jacob Brumfield, lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual LA 17 5 0 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 .294 .294 .412 .706 2
Actual Tor 170 40 8 3 2 25 19 0 19 0 39 1 2 .235 .307 .353 .660 19
Actual Tot 187 45 8 4 2 29 20 0 19 0 44 1 2 .241 .306 .358 .665 21
For a while, the Jays were playing Brumfield ahead of Stewart,
and I never understood why. For the past two seasons, Brumfield
has been in a reserve role, as he should be.
Jose Cruz Jr., cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 576 145 32 4 26 94 85 0 80 3 147 15 4 .252 .340 .457 .797 96
Prorated Tor 360 90 20 2 16 58 53 0 50 1 91 9 2 .250 .339 .450 .789 59
Actual Tor 349 84 19 3 14 63 45 0 64 5 91 14 4 .241 .358 .433 .791 58
Cruz made a big splash when he cranked out 26 homers in only
395 atbats in his 1997 debut, and Seattle fans were outraged when
he was dealt to Toronto for a couple of relief pitchers during
that rookie season. Even then, however, there were signs of big
holes in his swing, and Cruz has found himself in AAA for parts
of the past two seasons. But his walk-strikeout ratio improved
significantly in 1999, and he may finally be ready to hold down
a regular job in the big leagues starting in 2000. But with outfield
competition from Vernon Wells, Raul Mondesi, and Stewart, there's
no guarantee that Cruz will be in the lineup on opening day, assuming
nobody is traded between now and then.
Vernon Wells, cf, age 20
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Tor 88 23 5 0 1 8 8 0 4 0 18 1 1 .261 .293 .352 .646 7
Wells rocketed through the minor-league ranks last year. He
began by averaging .343 and slugging .543 in a half-season of
A ball, then put up similar numbers at AA Knoxville. The organization
needed only 106 atbats at that level to decide that he was ready
for the next step, and when Wells batted .310 and slugged .481
in 33 games at AAA Syracuse, he climbed to the top rung and finished
the year as the Jays center fielder.
That last step may have been one too many for one season, but
he wasn't totally overmatched in the big leagues either, and he's
in the running for the starting CF job in 2000. It won't surprise
me if the club decides to go with Cruz to start the season and
give Wells a chance to consolidate his gains at AAA. Either way,
you've got to be impressed with how far Wells has come in a short
time.
Brian McRae, cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 525 129 31 5 15 75 55 6 66 3 79 18 9 .246 .334 .410 .744 75
Prorated NYN 299 73 17 2 8 42 31 3 37 1 44 10 5 .244 .331 .395 .726 41
Actual NYN 298 66 12 1 8 35 36 5 39 1 57 2 6 .221 .320 .349 .669 33
Prorated Col 23 5 1 0 0 3 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .217 .280 .261 .541 2
Actual Col 23 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 7 0 0 .261 .370 .478 .849 4
Prorated Tor 87 21 5 0 2 12 9 1 11 0 13 3 1 .241 .333 .368 .701 11
Actual Tor 82 16 3 1 3 11 11 2 16 1 22 0 1 .195 .340 .366 .706 11
Prorated Tot 410 100 24 3 11 58 42 4 51 2 61 14 7 .244 .331 .398 .729 56
Actual Tot 403 88 17 2 12 47 48 9 57 2 86 2 7 .218 .327 .360 .687 48
McRae battled a knee injury all year, and it showed. After
a career year in 1998 (a .360 OBP, 21 homers, 62 extra-base hits),
McRae's offensive production dropped below his career averages.
His running and defense suffered even more than that, and he wasn't
playing much by the end of the year.
Shawn Green, rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 588 168 33 4 30 93 87 5 46 3 125 25 7 .286 .341 .509 .850 105
Prorated Tor 636 181 35 4 32 100 94 5 49 3 135 27 7 .285 .339 .503 .842 111
Actual Tor 614 190 45 0 42 134 123 11 66 4 117 20 7 .309 .384 .588 .972 140
After leaping from 16 homers in 1997 to 35 in 1998, Green took
another step up last year, adding 31 batting average points, increasing
his walk rate, and tossing in another 15 extra-base hits for good
measure. Toronto fans waited a long time for this, but they won't
get to see Green in his prime except by satellite. Finding it
impossible to keep both Delgado and Green on a club with gate
receipts and local TV revenues denominated in Canadian dollars
that seem to be worth less every time you turn around, the Jays
traded Green to the Dodgers for Raul Mondesi and Pedro Borbon.
They'll miss him.
Willie Greene, dh/3b/rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 358 89 16 1 16 55 59 1 53 3 85 4 1 .249 .345 .433 .778 56
Prorated Tor 213 53 9 0 9 32 35 0 31 1 50 2 0 .249 .343 .418 .761 32
Actual Tor 226 46 7 0 12 22 41 0 20 0 56 0 0 .204 .266 .394 .660 24
This was Greene's first disappointing season since he started
getting a meaningful amount of playing time in 1996. In the past,
he'd always posted an interesting combination of high OBPs and
good power along with his sub-.260 batting average, but this time
he didn't walk enough or provide enough pop. He's in camp with
the Cubs, competing for the 3B job with Shane Andrews and Cole
Liniak, and early indications are that he may not make the opening
day roster.
Dave Hollins, dh, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 441 110 20 2 10 70 53 8 54 3 91 10 4 .249 .340 .372 .712 59
Prorated Tor 90 22 4 0 2 14 10 1 11 0 18 2 0 .244 .333 .356 .689 11
Actual Tor 99 22 5 0 2 12 6 0 5 0 22 0 0 .222 .260 .333 .593 8
About a week before opening day, the Angels traded Hollins
to Toronto for reserve infielder Tomas Perez. At the time, I thought
Anaheim should have been able to get more for Hollins. But Perez
didn't play in the majors last year and Hollins did nothing as
the Toronto DH, so maybe it was a fair trade after all.
Kevin Witt, dh, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 68 16 3 0 3 9 9 1 5 1 17 0 0 .235 .293 .412 .705 8
Prorated Tor 33 7 1 0 1 4 4 0 2 0 8 0 0 .212 .257 .333 .590 3
Actual Tor 34 7 1 0 1 3 5 0 2 0 9 0 0 .206 .250 .324 .574 3
Witt has shown that he can hit AA and AAA pitching (hitting
in the .270s with a good on-base percentage and 25-30 homerun
power), and perhaps it's time for the Jays to find out whether
he can approach that level in the bigs. It's unlikely that he'd
be any worse that the DHs the team used in 1999.
Key Pitchers
As a group, the Blue Jays staff produced results that were
right in line with our projections, and individually, there were
only a few surprises. Chris Carpenter and Billy Koch were better
then projected, while Joey Hamilton and Kelvim Escobar were disappointments.
A pretty solid effort from the relief corps was another plus,
though this was not unexpected.
David Wells, starter, age 36 (as of July 1, 1999)
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.19 32 32 12 12 0 217 223 30 41 152 .266 .739
Prorated Tor 4.19 35 35 13 13 0 239 246 33 45 167 .266 .739
Actual Tor 4.82 34 34 17 10 0 232 246 32 62 169 .271 .758
Wells seemed very disheartened by the Roger Clemens trade that
saw him move (along with Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush) from his
beloved Yankees, the defending world champs, to the middle-of-the-pack
Jays. He struggled early, posting a 6.30 average and walking almost
as many men (27) in the first two months as he did (29) in the
entire 1998 season. But he hung tough, as he usually does, and
wound up winning 17 games and matching (except for those early
walks) his strong 1998 performance in most respects. And he's
pitched over 200 innings each of the last five years.
Pat Hentgen, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.66 32 32 11 11 0 193 206 26 65 114 .275 .775
Prorated Tor 4.66 33 33 11 11 0 202 215 27 68 119 .275 .775
Actual Tor 4.79 34 34 11 12 0 199 225 32 65 118 .286 .812
In 1996, Hentgen pitched 266 innings, finished with a 3.22,
and won 20 games and the Cy Young award. In 1997, he pitched 265
innings, finished with a 3.68 ERA, and won 15 games for a team
that finished last in the league in offense. That's a very big
workload in this day and age, and you have to wonder if it was
too big. Hentgen's ERA ballooned to 5.17 in 1998 before recovering
a little last year.
He was traded to the Cardinals after the season, and I expect
he'll be a solid starter for them. Moving to a pitcher's park
and a non-DH league should help his numbers, and being another
year removed from all those innings might help his arm bounce
back a little.
Joey Hamilton, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 5.17 32 32 10 13 0 200 224 19 93 123 .287 .808
Prorated Tor 5.17 16 16 5 6 0 98 110 9 46 60 .287 .808
Actual Tor 6.52 22 18 7 8 0 98 118 13 39 56 .298 .843
Once a prized prospect, Hamilton has been in steady decline.
His career ERA was right around 3.00 in his first 46 starts (in
1994-95), but he hasn't seen the good side of 4.00 since. His
control, which deserted him in 1998 (106 walks), was better last
year. But he's not striking out many men any more and he was hit
pretty hard when he did throw strikes. Perhaps it was physical
-- he felt a twinge in his shoulder in August, then had rotator
cuff surgery in September. It would be a huge boost for the team
if Hamilton could bounce back in 2000, but that's far from a sure
thing.
Chris Carpenter, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.97 32 32 10 13 0 203 227 24 83 157 .286 .800
Prorated Tor 4.97 24 24 7 10 0 150 168 18 61 116 .286 .800
Actual Tor 4.38 24 24 9 8 0 150 177 16 48 106 .294 .796
One of a posse of young pitchers the Jays are counting on.
Carpenter hasn't broken through yet, but many believe he will
emerge as a #1 starter. In 1999, he was showing signs of taking
a step toward that goal until he began having trouble with his
elbow. A flurry of walks (15 in 30 innings) in August was the
first sign of a problem. That led to his being removed from the
rotation and eventually to mid-September surgery to remove bone
spurs and chips from the elbow.
Kelvim Escobar, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 3.86 27 27 9 7 0 163 153 14 74 156 .249 .713
Prorated Tor 3.86 31 31 10 8 0 185 173 16 84 177 .249 .713
Actual Tor 5.69 33 30 14 11 0 174 203 19 81 129 .293 .820
Another hard-throwing youngster, Escobar failed to build on
a promising start to his career. Although he was a starter in
the minor leagues, he broke in as a closer in 1997, saving 14
games in 17 tries and posting a 2.90 ERA. After he was moved back
into the rotation in the second half of 1998, Escobar went 6-2
with a 2.35 ERA in 10 starts.
But his control has never been especially good, his fastball
stays too straight at times, and he was hit pretty hard last year.
If he can get back to where he was, he'll be another important
piece of the puzzle for Toronto.
Roy Halladay, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 5.48 4 4 1 2 0 23 26 3 10 13 .286 .821
Prorated Tor 5.48 26 26 6 13 0 148 167 19 64 84 .286 .821
Actual Tor 3.92 36 18 8 7 1 149 156 19 79 82 .270 .788
Halladay reached AAA about the time he turned 20 and pitched
well at that level from the beginning. A year and a half later,
he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning of his second major league
outing. It's not hard to see why he's regarded as one of the top
pitching prospects in the game.
Having said that, you are hereby warned that Halladay's 3.92
ERA last year is a tad misleading. He put 235 runners on base
by hit or walk in 149 innings, gave up homers at a pretty good
clip, and barely struck out more men than he walked. Normally
those stats add up to an ERA in the low 5's, so he could improve
quite a bit in 2000 and still post an ERA higher than his 1999
figure.
Peter Munro, long reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 6.52 30 0 2 3 0 39 51 6 17 29 .321 .907
Prorated Tor 6.52 42 0 3 4 0 54 71 8 24 40 .321 .907
Actual Tor 6.02 31 2 0 2 0 55 70 6 23 38 .318 .859
Primarily a starter in the minors, Munro was given a chance
to get his feet wet in long relief. Drafted by the Red Sox and
traded to the Jays in 1999 (in the Mike Stanley deal), Munro has
been good but not great in his minor-league career. Hence the
mediocre projection and the mediocre performance.
Tom Davey, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 6.24 40 0 2 3 0 49 63 6 35 41 .317 .918
Prorated Tor 6.24 33 0 2 2 0 40 52 5 29 34 .317 .918
Actual Tor 4.70 29 0 1 1 1 44 40 5 26 42 .241 .760
Prorated Sea 6.24 17 0 1 1 0 20 26 3 15 17 .317 .918
Actual Sea 4.71 16 0 1 0 0 21 22 0 14 17 .268 .741
Prorated Tot 6.24 50 0 2 4 0 61 78 7 43 51 .317 .918
Actual Tot 4.71 45 0 2 1 1 65 62 5 40 59 .250 .754
Despite control problems, Davey did a respectable job in long
relief before he was traded to Seattle (along with Steve Sinclair)
in the deal that brought David Segui to the Jays.
Paul Quantrill, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.50 40 0 2 2 0 42 49 4 11 28 .295 .768
Prorated Tor 4.50 47 0 2 2 0 49 58 5 13 33 .295 .768
Actual Tor 3.33 41 0 3 2 0 49 53 5 17 28 .282 .771
For the third year in a row, Quantrill has (a) allowed more
than a hit per inning, (b) shown very good control, (c) struggled
in save situations, with 15 saves in 41 opportunities in his career
and 0 for 4 in 1999, and (d) finished with an ERA that is well
below the norm for the hits and walks he allows.
As you can see, his performance was right in line with his
projection, and a performance like this normally produces an ERA
in the mid-4's. I'm at a loss to explain this. If it's not luck,
and Quantrill has a special ability to work out of jams, why has
he struggled so much in save situations? I suspect his low ERAs
reflect some good fortune and a little help from his friends in
the Jays pen.
Paul Spoljaric, starter/reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.43 32 32 11 11 0 200 189 24 98 211 .249 .762
Prorated Phi 4.43 5 2 1 1 0 15 14 2 7 15 .249 .762
Actual Phi 15.09 5 3 0 3 0 11 23 1 7 10 .426 1.103
Prorated Tor 4.43 21 8 3 3 0 64 61 8 32 68 .249 .762
Actual Tor 4.65 37 2 2 2 0 62 62 9 32 63 .258 .822
Prorated Tot 4.43 26 10 4 4 0 79 75 10 39 83 .249 .762
Actual Tot 6.26 42 5 2 5 0 73 85 10 39 73 .289 .874
In 1996-97, Spoljaric was a decent lefty reliever in the Toronto
bullpen. Traded to Seattle in 1997 (in the Jose Cruz deal), Spoljaric
came down with a serious case of Mariner-bullpen-itis, or whatever
it is that afflicts anyone in Lou Piniella's pen, and saw his
ERA soar to 6.48 in 1998. Inspired by this performance, the Phillies
traded for Spoljaric and immediately tabbed him for a spot in
their rotation. After three dreadful starts, he was sent back
to the familiar surroundings of the Toronto bullpen, where he
was right in line with his projections. There's no place like
home.
Dan Plesac, lefty specialist, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 3.40 70 0 3 2 8 50 47 6 16 56 .247 .711
Prorated Tor 3.40 35 0 1 1 4 25 23 3 8 28 .247 .711
Actual Tor 8.34 30 0 0 3 0 23 28 4 9 26 .308 .872
Prorated Ari 3.40 31 0 1 1 4 23 21 3 7 25 .247 .711
Actual Ari 3.32 34 0 2 1 1 22 22 3 8 27 .259 .746
Prorated Tot 3.40 66 0 3 2 8 47 44 6 15 53 .247 .711
Actual Tot 5.89 64 0 2 4 1 44 50 7 17 53 .284 .811
Without a doubt, Plesac has to be considered one of the top
candidates for the Jays MVP award. Not because of his performance
on the field -- even though he wasn't nearly as bad as his 8.34
ERA suggests -- but because the Diamondbacks wanted him badly
enough to give Toronto two players (Tony Batista and John Frascatore)
who helped the Jays a great deal. Plesac was reasonably effective
for Arizona, and you can't argue with what they achieved in the
second half, but those 22 innings were awfully expensive.
Graeme Lloyd, setup man, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 3.00 53 0 2 1 0 39 36 4 10 20 .247 .674
Prorated Tor 3.00 100 0 4 2 0 74 68 8 19 38 .247 .674
Actual Tor 3.63 74 0 5 3 3 72 68 11 23 47 .250 .739
Another good year from this veteran left-hander. He has always
been effective against both righties and lefties, and was actually
a little better against RHB in 1999, so he's considerably more
valuable than your average lefty specialist. I'm just not sure
he's as valuable as the Expos think he is, having just given him
a 3-year $9m contract.
John Frascatore, setup man, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 4.04 70 0 5 5 2 98 101 10 37 57 .269 .753
Prorated Ari 4.04 23 0 2 2 1 32 33 3 12 18 .269 .753
Actual Ari 4.09 26 0 1 4 0 33 31 6 12 15 .256 .814
Prorated Tor 4.04 27 0 2 2 1 38 39 4 14 22 .269 .753
Actual Tor 3.41 33 0 7 1 1 37 42 5 9 22 .292 .799
Prorated Tot 4.04 50 0 4 4 1 69 71 7 26 40 .269 .753
Actual Tot 3.73 59 0 8 5 1 70 73 11 21 37 .275 .805
If the Jays had traded Plesac for Frascatore straight up, leaving
Batista out of the deal altogether, I'd still think Toronto got
the better of the deal, if only because of the 8-year age difference.
For the past three years, the right-handed Frascatore has pitched
pretty well and averaged about 80 innings per season without breaking
down, and he's had better results against lefties than righties.
Billy Koch, closer, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tor 3.39 56 0 0 5 31 64 55 5 30 57 .235 .679
We didn't generate a projection for Koch because his career
through 1998 was spent in the low minors except for two AAA starts
in which he allowed 14 baserunners in 5-2/3 innings. Used strictly
as a starter in the minors, Koch made a very smooth transition
to the closer role, blowing only four saves in 35 chances.
Now that Koch has had one good season as the closer, it looks
as if the team will be leave him in that role. But wouldn't they
be better off giving him a shot at the rotation so he could take
the mound for 200 innings a year instead of 60? Perhaps not, if
they're worried about his ability to sustain a starter's workload
after his 1997 reconstructive ligament surgery.
Robert Person, closer/starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 5.22 70 0 2 7 16 69 73 14 37 56 .271 .863
Prorated Tor 5.22 13 0 0 1 3 13 14 3 7 11 .271 .863
Actual Tor 9.82 11 0 0 2 2 11 9 1 15 12 .231 .877
Prorated Phi 5.22 4 13 30 131 139 27 70 106 .271 .863
Actual Phi 4.27 31 22 10 5 0 137 130 23 70 127 .252 .801
Prorated Tot 5.22 4 15 33 144 153 29 77 117 .271 .863
Actual Tot 4.68 42 22 10 7 2 148 139 24 85 139 .250 .809
In late 1998, Person saved six games in eight tries, so he
entered 1999 as the closer designate. Thanks to Person's inability
to find the strike zone, he was quickly removed from that role
and then dealt to Philadelphia, where he pitched much more effectively
as a starter.
Outlook
The offense should continue to be a plus, even though the Jays
gave up more than they got in the Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi
trade, both offensively and defensively. It's possible that Fletcher
and Bush may not reach their 1999 levels, but they'll have Batista
for the entire season, Alex Gonzalez and Jose Cruz might be ready
to bust out, and they should be much better at DH.
I think the big question is whether Carpenter, Escobar, Halladay
and Koch are ready to lead this team to the promised land. (By
the way, I don't mean to downplay the role of David Wells, whom
I regard as the #1 starter on this team). As I mulled this over,
I decided to go looking for other teams that got a lot of wins
out of pitchers who were 25 or younger.
Since 1901, ten teams have received 68 or more wins from young
pitchers. The leaders were the 1915-16 Red Sox, who got 74 and
75 young-pitcher wins from guys like Babe Ruth, Ernie Shore, Dutch
Leonard and Carl Mays. The 1961 Indians were next with 73 wins
from eight youngsters, most notably Mudcat Grant, Gary Bell and
Jim Perry. Led by Fergie Jenkins, and aided by Joe Niekro and
Ken Holtzman, the 1967 Cubs had 72 wins from their kids. That
figure was matched by the 1986 Mets of Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez,
Ron Darling, Roger McDowell, and Rick Aguilera. Among the five
teams with 68 wins were the 1991 Braves of Tom Glavine, Steve
Avery, and John Smoltz.
I also searched for teams with three or more 12-game winners
who were 25 or under. In the past 100 years, four teams had four
12-game winners -- the aforementioned 1915-16 Red Sox and 1986
Mets plus the 1968 Athletics. Thirty-five other teams had three
young 12-game winners. Among the more recent examples are:
Team Pitchers Team finish
-------------- ------------------------------- --------------
1993 White Sox JBere, WAlvarez, AFernandez 1st, lost ALCS
1990 White Sox JMcDowell, GHibbard, MPerez 2nd
1988 Mets DCone, DGooden, SFernandez 1st, lost NLCS
1985 Royals BSaberhagen, DJackson, MGubicza 1st, won WS
1985 Angels MWitt, RRomanick, KMcCaskill 2nd
1982 Expos SSanderson, CLea, TGullickson 3rd
1978 Brewers LSorensen, JAugustine, BTravers 3rd
By the way, three of the four teams with four 12-game winners
finished 1st, with the 1968 Oakland squad coming in sixth.
What does this mean? Well, it's certainly not the norm for
a team to have several young pitchers come through in a single
season, but it's not all that rare either. And having three successful
young starters is no guarantee that (a) the team will go the distance
that season or (b) the staff will stay together and form the nucleus
of a dynasty.
I won't be shocked if Toronto is a serious contender this year.
But I think it would be most unfair to expect these young
pitchers to carry the team. If the Jays are to win anything this
year, they'll need at least two of the young starters to take
another step forward, plus a solid campaign from David Wells,
a turnaround from Joey Hamilton, a focused and team-oriented Raul
Mondesi, and continued development from their young hitters. It
could happen.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000.
Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All
right reserved.
