This article takes a look at how the Anaheim Angels did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                   Projected  Actual
Runs for              852      711
Runs allowed          838      826
Run Margin             14     -115
Wins                   84       70
Pythagorean wins       82       69
Placement             3rd      4th

Thanks in large part to the signing of Mo Vaughn to a six-year, $80 million contract last winter, the Angels entered the season as the favorites to win the AL West in the eyes of many, including Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and ESPN the magazine.

We weren't so sure. The year before, Anaheim was in first place for 84 days before fading to a second-place finish, three games back of the Rangers. Their ability to win 85 games and contend in a weak division obscured the deficiencies of a club that outscored its opponents by only four runs (787-783) and wound up 10th in the AL in scoring and sixth in pitching. Adding one bat (Vaughn's) and a league-average-at-best starting pitcher (Tim Belcher) was expected to put them in the mix, but it wasn't enough to put them on top in our computer simulations.

Despite injuries to several key players, the team stayed within sight of .500 through the first half before collapsing in mid-summer (16-38 in July and August). It wasn't pretty, and the on-field problems spilled over into the clubhouse, where a group of players tried to get manager Terry Collins fired. The front office backed the manager, but the situation remained untenable, and Collins tearfully announced his resignation in August.

A rash of injuries provided a ready excuse for the team's last-place finish, but that wasn't the only reason. Their pitching was surprisingly good, but the offense fell apart as some key players didn't play up to their established levels and the second-line players were unable to match the production expected from the injured starters.

Key Position Players

Projected to score 852 runs and finish sixth in the league in scoring, the offense actually plated only 711 runners, a record of futility exceeded only by the Twins in the AL and (despite pitcher hitting) only two teams in the NL. The club was last in the league in batting average (.256), last in on-base percentage (.322), 11th in homers (158), 12th in stolen bases (71), and 12th in stolen base percentage (61%).

The only positive was the resurgence of Randy Velarde, who posted career highs in many categories before he was dealt to Oakland. But this wasn't anywhere near enough to overcome poor seasons from Darin Erstad and Todd Greene and injuries to Jim Edmonds, Gary Disarcina, Tim Salmon, and Mo Vaughn.

Matt Walbeck, c, age 29 (as of July 1, 1999)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 382  93 14  1  5  43  43  1  29  0  69  2  2  .243  .295  .325  .620  36
Prorated   Ana 291  71 10  0  3  32  32  0  22  0  52  1  1  .244  .294  .309  .604  26
Actual     Ana 288  69  8  1  3  26  22  3  26  1  46  2  3  .240  .308  .306  .614  25

The catcher situation was muddled throughout spring training. Walbeck appeared to be the starter, but it was hoped that Todd Greene could catch as many as three games per week. As it turned out, Greene caught only 12 games, and when Walbeck's offense dropped back to normal after a reasonably good 1998 season (for him), the team went looking for another option and split the job among six players.

Todd Greene, c/dh/rf, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 389 104 25  0 24  51  70  4  21  4  65  3  1  .267  .309  .517  .826  61
Prorated   Ana 315  84 20  0 19  41  56  3  17  3  52  2  0  .267  .309  .511  .820  50
Actual     Ana 321  78 20  0 14  36  42  3  12  0  63  1  4  .243  .275  .436  .711  35

It's always hard to tell how someone is going to rebound after a career-threatening injury. Once a highly-touted power-hitting catcher prospect, Greene entered 1999 as a big question mark after breaking his wrist in 1997 and missing most of 1998 with a serious problem with his throwing shoulder. With 10 homers through the first two months, it looked as if Greene was all the way back, but he batted only .220 with four homers the rest of the way. This performance earned a trip to AAA Edmonton for a few weeks, and he didn't hit much better there (.243 with 5 homers and no walks in 74 atbats).

Ben Molina, c, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  72  18  3  0  1   6  10  0   2  0   5  0  0  .250  .267  .333  .600   6
Prorated   Ana 104  26  4  0  1   8  14  0   2  0   7  0  0  .250  .262  .317  .579   8
Actual     Ana 101  26  5  0  1   8  10  2   6  0   6  0  1  .257  .312  .337  .649   9

Molina entered 1999 with only one career atbat under his belt and a minor-league record that gave little reason to believe that he would produce much more offense than Walbeck has been giving the team. He didn't do much offensively, but his throwing was a little better than Walbeck's, and he's five years younger, so it makes sense to give him a crack at the job.

Steve Decker, c, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  69  15  3  0  1   7   8  0   5  0   9  0  0  .217  .267  .304  .571   5
Prorated   Ana  72  15  3  0  1   7   8  0   5  0   9  0  0  .208  .256  .292  .548   5
Actual     Ana  63  15  6  0  0   5   5  1  13  0   9  0  0  .238  .372  .333  .705   8

A veteran who saw his first major-league action since 1996, Decker wasn't expected to do much. He began the year in AAA, was called up in late May, and gave the team a few more doubles and walks than normal. It wasn't enough, though, and the team chose to go with younger players after they fell out of contention.

Bret Hemphill, c, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  69  14  3  0  1   6   7  0   6  0  14  0  0  .203  .267  .290  .557   5
Prorated   Ana  24   5  1  0  0   2   2  0   2  0   5  0  0  .203  .267  .290  .557   2
Actual     Ana  21   3  0  0  0   3   2  0   4  0   4  0  0  .143  .269  .143  .412   1

Hemphill missed the first half of the 1998 minor-league season after reconstructive shoulder surgery, but made it back for 155 AAA atbats last year. This year, he hit .313 with an on-base percentage of .396 in 246 atbats at AAA Edmonton. He's a little old to be considered a real prospect, but there are some signs of power in his minor-league record, and he might become a useful role player if his shoulder returns to and stays at full strength.

Mo Vaughn, 1b/dh, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 550 166 22  1 32  88  95 10  70 14 139  0  0  .302  .389  .520  .909 113
Prorated   Ana 514 155 20  0 29  82  88  9  65 13 129  0  0  .302  .388  .510  .898 103
Actual     Ana 524 147 20  0 33  63 108 11  54  7 127  0  0  .281  .358  .508  .866  96

Expected by most pundits to be a great clubhouse leader and the heart of a strong offense, Vaughn's season got off to an inauspicious start when he badly sprained his ankle as he fell into the dugout chasing a foul pop on opening day. After spending three weeks on the DL, Vaughn was the DH until his ankle was sound enough for him to return to the field. Even though the ankle was never 100%, and despite an August battle with a staph infection in his shin, Vaughn still managed to produce at a high level.

This was the first time since 1993 that Vaughn has failed to hit .300, but it's also the first time he's played without the advantage of having his opposite-field power rewarded with wall-ball doubles in lefty-friendly Fenway Park. It wouldn't be fair to expect him to match his 1998 season (.337, 40 HR, .591 slugging) in another park. In fact, after taking into account the change in parks, his reduced playing time, a lower rate of intentional walks, and a slight decline due to age, Vaughn's production was right in line with expectations. If you're an Angels fan who's looking at the future, it's reasonable for you to hope for better health, but little reason to believe that his production will be whole lot better than it was this year.

Randy Velarde, 2b, age 36

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 575 148 35  3 10  79  64  6  88  0 125 14  8  .257  .361  .381  .742  82
Prorated   Ana 363  93 22  1  6  49  40  3  55  0  78  8  5  .256  .358  .372  .730  50
Actual     Ana 376 115 15  4  9  57  48  4  43  1  56 13  4  .306  .383  .439  .822  65

Prorated   Oak 244  62 14  1  4  33  27  2  37  0  53  5  3  .254  .357  .369  .726  33
Actual     Oak 255  85 10  3  7  48  28  2  27  1  42 11  4  .333  .401  .478  .880  47

Prorated   Tot 607 156 36  3 10  83  67  6  92  0 132 14  8  .257  .359  .376  .735  85
Actual     Tot 631 200 25  7 16 105  76  6  70  2  98 24  8  .317  .390  .455  .845 112

Anaheim supporters have a right to feel as if everything that could go wrong did go wrong in 1999. But this is an exception. Velarde missed all of 1997 and two-thirds of 1998 after undergoing elbow surgery. One could be forgiven for assuming that his career was over, but Velarde didn't think so, and proceeded to put up career highs in hits, triples, homers, walks, runs, RBI, and stolen bases. Oh, and he played very good defense, too. It was truly one of the great stories of the 1999 season.

Justin Baughman, 2b, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  69  18  3  1  0   9   6  1   2  0  10  5  2  .261  .288  .333  .621   6

The 2B job opened up when Velarde was traded to the A's in July, and Baughman might have gotten the job were it not for a broken leg that cost him the entire season. He stole a ton of bases in the minors, but his on-base percentages have never been impressive. He reminds me of Tony Womack, a base-stealing wizard who began his career as a 2B and has a full-time job despite a mediocre on-base percentage. But Womack has shown that he can hit .275 and take 40-50 walks a year at the big-league level, and it's not clear that Baughman will be able to do that. Baughman is a better defensive player than Womack, but if his injury takes away his ability to be a serious threat on the bases, his prospects will be diminished considerably.

Trent Durrington, 2b, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     Ana 122  22  2  0  0  14   2  0   9  0  28  4  3  .180  .237  .197  .433   6

Durrington wasn't even on our radar screen back in the spring. He had never played above AA and batted only .225 at that level in 1998. After Velarde was traded to Oakland, Durrington was given the 2B job as a reward for hitting .288, getting on base at a .379 clip, and stealing 59 bases in 107 games at AA Erie this year. His minor-league record shows a series of low batting averages and very little power, but he has always walked a lot and stolen a ton of bases. He was a switch-hitter but began batting exclusively from the right side this year.

Jeff Huson, 2b/ss/3b, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  84  18  3  0  0   8   7  1   4  0  10  1  1  .214  .258  .250  .508   5
Prorated   Ana 228  49  8  0  0  21  19  2  10  0  27  2  2  .215  .254  .250  .504  14
Actual     Ana 225  59  7  1  0  21  18  0  16  0  27 10  1  .262  .307  .302  .610  21

This journeyman utility player hasn't had this many atbats since 1992. He's versatile and gave the Angels good defense at three positions, but he's also a career .235 hitter who doesn't walk much or hit for power. When a team is forced to give 225 atbats to this type of player, you know the offense will suffer. Curiously, he stole more bases this year than in 1993-98 combined. Filed for free agency after the season.

Gary DiSarcina, ss, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 118  30  7  1  0  13  10  1   4  0   9  2  1  .254  .282  .331  .613  11
Prorated   Ana 279  70 16  2  0  30  23  2   9  0  21  4  2  .251  .277  .323  .600  24
Actual     Ana 271  62  7  1  1  32  29  2  15  0  32  2  2  .229  .273  .273  .546  20

In a freak accident early in spring training, DiSarcina broke his arm when he was hit by a bat. He was expected to return fairly quickly, but the bone didn't heal properly and needed surgical repair in late March. Three months later, DiSarcina was back on the field, but his hitting stroke wasn't anywhere to be seen. He has a good chance to keep his job on the strength of his defense, but his career on-base percentage of .291 and slugging average of .339 are indicative of someone destined for a utility infielder role.

Andy Sheets, ss, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 426 100 17  2 14  62  51  2  37  2 113  9  2  .235  .297  .383  .680  50
Prorated   Ana 241  56  9  1  7  35  28  1  20  1  64  5  1  .232  .293  .365  .658  26
Actual     Ana 244  48 10  0  3  22  29  0  14  0  59  1  2  .197  .236  .275  .510  15

When it became clear that DiSarcina would miss a good chunk of the season, the Angels acquired Sheets from the Padres in a four-player deal involving Phil Nevin. Nevin rediscovered his career in San Diego, while Sheets found himself in the minors by mid-season. Never much of a hitter, Sheets found a way to have the worst offensive year of his career, and his defense was a little below average, too.

Troy Glaus, 3b, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 543 134 29  0 28  79  95  3  55  2 141  7  2  .247  .318  .455  .773  81
Prorated   Ana 567 139 30  0 29  82  99  3  57  2 147  7  2  .245  .316  .451  .767  83
Actual     Ana 551 132 29  0 29  85  79  6  71  1 143  5  1  .240  .331  .450  .781  86

Offensively, Glaus started out like the second coming of Edgar Martinez, finishing April with a .341 average, 13 doubles, 5 homers, and 11 walks. At that point, I was wondering how on earth he could have been projected to hit only .247. But a 12-for-92 May ensued, and Glaus wound up posting a season that was right in line with his previous year (after deflating his minor-league stats appropriately). While the slump must have been a disappointment to all, I hope management regards this as a very successful season. If I were running the team, I'd be happy to get acceptable defense, 29 homers and 71 walks from a 22-year-old who was playing college ball only two years ago.

Darin Erstad, 1b/lf, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 617 178 38  4 18 101  85  6  55  7  89 22  8  .288  .350  .451  .801 102
Prorated   Ana 574 165 35  3 16  94  79  5  51  6  82 20  7  .287  .349  .443  .792  93
Actual     Ana 585 148 22  5 13  84  53  1  47  3 101 13  7  .253  .308  .374  .683  65

Thud. Many, including me, were expecting Erstad to continue to blossom as one of the very good young talents in the game. Versatile enough to provide superior defense at 1B and in the OF while hitting for a good average and tossing in some power and speed, he's a very handy guy to have on your team. And he was only 24 years old on opening day. But he never got things going at the plate or on the bases, and wound up with the worst season in his four-year career. His offensive production was far and away the lowest from anyone who called 1B home in 1999.

Orlando Palmeiro, lf/rf, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana  79  21  3  1  0  11   9  0   8  0   6  1  1  .266  .330  .329  .659   9
Prorated   Ana 322  85 12  4  0  44  36  0  32  0  24  4  4  .264  .327  .326  .653  36
Actual     Ana 317  88 12  1  1  46  23  6  39  1  30  5  5  .278  .364  .331  .696  41

Palmeiro must have come to spring training wondering where he would play. The acquisition of Vaughn to play 1B meant that Erstad would be moving to an already-crowded outfield. And there was talk that Greene would play some RF if he couldn't catch. Then Vaughn's sprained ankle opened up 1B for Erstad, Edmonds hurt his shoulder, Salmon sprained his wrist, and Greene was sent to AAA for a month. Presto! Three hundred at-bats were suddenly available, and Palmeiro came through with his usual contribution -- solid defense, decent batting average, good on-base percentage, no power.

Jim Edmonds, cf, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 587 169 35  1 24 101  85  3  60  6 106  6  4  .288  .355  .474  .829  98
Prorated   Ana 209  60 12  0  8  35  30  1  21  2  37  2  1  .287  .353  .459  .813  34
Actual     Ana 204  51 17  2  5  34  23  0  28  0  45  5  4  .250  .339  .426  .766  30

Edmonds needed surgery after aggravating a shoulder injury while lifting weights, and his season didn't begin until early August. He wasn't bad on his return, but he wasn't 100 percent either. Often rumored to be leaving Anaheim in a trade for pitching, one wonders if he's now viewed as damaged goods, at least until he shows that his body is back to full strength.

Garret Anderson, cf/lf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 452 133 27  4  8  48  57  1  21  5  55  6  3  .294  .326  .425  .750  59
Prorated   Ana 624 183 37  5 11  66  78  1  28  6  75  8  4  .293  .324  .421  .745  80
Actual     Ana 620 188 36  2 21  88  80  0  34  8  81  3  4  .303  .336  .469  .806  93

A career .300 hitter with moderate power, Anderson has never walked enough to be a really valuable hitter. So it wasn't clear whether he'd have a full-time job this year. After injuries depleted the ranks, Anderson played every day and had his best season since his 1995 rookie campaign.

At one time, a .303 average and 21 homers would have been regarded as very good, but in the midst of the current surge in offense, it doesn't stand out. The average AL player produced a .347 on-base percentage and 20.9 homers per 620 atbats, and that includes catchers and middle infielders. Anderson's output is nothing special for an outfielder.

Tim Salmon, rf, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Ana 523 147 28  2 26  85  98  5  90  5 112  2  3  .281  .386  .491  .877 107
Prorated   Ana 352  98 18  1 17  57  65  3  60  3  75  1  2  .278  .382  .480  .863  70
Actual     Ana 353  94 24  2 17  60  69  0  63  2  82  4  1  .266  .372  .490  .862  69

In 1998, Salmon gutted out 463 atbats despite a torn ligament in his right foot that required surgery after the season. Salmon entered 1999 able to go full speed in the outfield and started with a bang -- .347 with 7 homers and 23 RBI in April. Then things took a turn for the worse when he missed two months after spraining his wrist attempting a sliding catch. After his return in July, his average was in the .250s and he didn't hit for as much power. He's had to deal with a lot of adversity in the past three seasons, and I hope the baseball gods grant him a few years of good health.

Key Pitchers

In the spring, I wrote that "It's not clear how the addition of Tim Belcher makes their pitching any better, and they appear to be headed for another middle-of-the-pack finish in staff ERA, especially with hard-throwing setup man Mike James on the sidelines."

Well, Belcher was awful, nobody else stepped forward, and the Angels starting pitchers finished ninth in the league with a 5.20 ERA. But a bullpen led by Mark Petkovsek, Mike Magnante, and Allen Levine overcame the loss of James and subpar seasons from Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Troy Percival to finish behind only New York and Boston in relief ERA. That bullpen performance lifted the staff into 5th in overall team ERA.

Chuck Finley, Starter, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.05  32 32  13 10  0  207 199 21  95 188  .255  .730
Prorated   Ana  4.05  33 33  13 10  0  211 203 21  97 192  .255  .730
Actual     Ana  4.43  33 33  12 11  0  213 197 23  94 200  .246  .716

Can you remember a time when Chuck Finley wasn't rumored to be on the trading block. I can't. But it's not because the Angels don't want him, it's because the richer contending teams always seem to be looking for a capable and durable lefty starter, and Finley fits the bill. Despite all the rumors, however, Finley has played his entire 14-year career with the Angels. This wasn't Finley's best year, but his ERA was still almost half a run below the league average, and I'll take 200+ of those innings from a lefty starter (in a league very short on lefty starters) any day. His run with one team may come to an end, however, as he filed for free agency after the season.

Ken Hill, Starter, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.61  32 32  10 10  0  174 188 13  79 104  .279  .765
Prorated   Ana  4.61  24 24   7  7  0  129 139 10  59  77  .279  .765
Actual     Ana  4.77  26 22   4 11  0  128 129 14  76  76  .270  .788

Hill had bone spurs removed from his elbow in the middle of the 1998 season and arthritis in that elbow put him back on the DL for a short while this year. Although his season was right in line with his recent past, suggesting that the elbow isn't a major problem, the drop in his ratio of strikeouts to walks is reason for concern about the future.

Tim Belcher, Starter, age 37

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.58  32 32  12 12  0  208 223 27  67 115  .275  .771
Prorated   Ana  4.58  21 21   8  8  0  140 149 18  45  77  .275  .771
Actual     Ana  6.73  24 24   6  8  0  132 168 27  46  52  .315  .914

The last time Belcher gave up less than a hit per inning was in 1993. Since then, he's counted on good control to keep him in games despite yielding plenty of hits and homers. But that wasn't enough this year. A workhorse who averaged 228 innings over the past three seasons, Belcher was only able to give the Angels 132 innings this year, thanks to a broken finger and a lot of early showers.

Omar Olivares, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.87  32 32  12 12  0  201 219 21  95 115  .281  .792
Prorated   Ana  4.87  20 20   7  7  0  125 136 13  59  72  .281  .792
Actual     Ana  4.05  20 20   8  9  0  131 135 11  49  49  .273  .736

Prorated   Oak  4.87  12 12   4  4  0   73  80  8  35  42  .281  .792
Actual     Oak  4.34  12 12   7  2  0   75  82  8  32  36  .283  .820

Prorated   Tot  4.87  32 32  12 12  0  199 216 21  94 114  .281  .792
Actual     Tot  4.16  32 32  15 11  0  206 217 19  81  85  .276  .767

When Olivares got off to a very good start (6-3, 3.06 through the end of May), I was more than a little skeptical because his strikeouts were way down. While he wasn't able to sustain that pace, his ERA was consistently better than the league average all season. He's now had two pretty good years in a row, but that BB/K ratio still makes me nervous.

Steve Sparks, Starter, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  5.37  27 27   8 10  0  156 174 21  75  95  .285  .821
Prorated   Ana  5.37  26 26   8 10  0  153 171 21  74  93  .285  .821
Actual     Ana  5.42  28 26   5 11  0  148 165 21  82  73  .281  .825

Yet another veteran with a lousy strikeout-to-walk ratio. Sparks was a useful fifth starter in 1998 (9-4, 4.34) and continued that way for the first half. But a second-half slump (1-6, 6.59) dropped him back to his normal level for the year as a whole.

Jarrod Washburn, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  5.51  21  4   3  3  0   51  58  8  23  35  .287  .841
Prorated   Ana  5.51  24  5   3  3  0   58  66  9  26  40  .287  .841
Actual     Ana  5.25  16 10   4  5  0   62  61  6  26  39  .261  .749

His ERA wasn't impressive, but Washburn allowed fewer hits, walks and homers than the league average, and these stats normally produce an ERA under 4.50. He's young and improving slowly, but has never had a really impressive season above A ball, so his ceiling doesn't seem to be all that high.

Ramon Ortiz, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Actual     Ana  6.52   9  9   2  3  0   48  50  7  25  44  .265  .776

Ortiz wasn't expected to make the jump to the majors this year. He pitched very well in the low minors in 1996-7, but had only seven ineffective starts in AA in 1998. He earned a shot with strong performances at AA Erie (9-4, 2.82) and AAA Edmonton (5-3, 4.05) last year, and pitched quite a bit better than his ERA suggests, as hitters were a few points below the league average in on-base-plus-slugging against him. Lefties hit him hard (.293 average, .515 slugging), but he was very effective against right-handed batters (.233, one homer in 90 atbats).

Jack McDowell, Starter, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  5.40   4  4   1  1  0   22  27  3   6  15  .307  .847
Prorated   Ana  5.40   4  4   1  1  0   21  26  3   6  15  .307  .847
Actual     Ana  8.05   4  4   0  4  0   19  31  4   5  12  .369  .973

McDowell was a workhorse in the early 1990s, logging an average of 229 innings and 16 wins from 1990 to 1995, including the strike-shortened 1994 season. One has to wonder if that's the reason why McDowell needed elbow surgery in 1997 and shoulder surgery this year, and why his career appears to have come to a premature end.

Shigtoshi Hasegawa, Middle reliever, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.00  70  0   6  4  2   99  96 13  37  72  .255  .759
Prorated   Ana  4.00  56  0   5  3  2   78  76 10  29  57  .255  .759
Actual     Ana  4.91  64  1   4  6  2   77  80 14  34  44  .276  .814

Hasegawa pitched very well in his first two seasons with Anaheim, posting an ERA in the mid-threes and carrying a pretty heavy workload for a reliever (97 innings in 1998). But his ERA soared to 5.97 in the second half of 1999 as his strikeout rate dropped and fly balls began leaving the yard in large numbers -- 11 homers allowed in 32 innings. Has be been overworked? Could be, though I've heard nothing about fatigue or injury that would explain this.

Mike Holtz, Middle reliever, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  3.88  70  0   3  2  1   49  48  3  21  47  .259  .713
Prorated   Ana  3.88  35  0   2  1  1   25  24  2  11  24  .259  .713
Actual     Ana  8.06  28  0   2  3  0   22  26  3  15  17  .295  .875

Once a very promising lefty setup man, Holtz' ERA has gone from 2.45 to 3.32 to 4.75 to 8.06 in his four big-league seasons. His control, which was never good, has been getting a little worse, and he's not striking hitters out like he once did.

Mike James, Setup man, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  3.63  13  0   1  1  0   17  17  1   9  15  .262  .748

James was a key part of the Angels pen until his 1998 season was ended by elbow surgery. His attempt to come back this year was over before it started, thanks to shoulder surgery this past spring. Several other righty relievers stepped into the void, so the loss didn't hurt the team too much, but you have to feel for a guy like this, and you have to wonder if he can make it all the way back.

Alan Levine, Long reliever, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  5.96  23  0   2  3  0   45  59  6  19  23  .319  .875
Prorated   Ana  5.96  39  0   3  5  0   76  99 10  32  39  .319  .875
Actual     Ana  3.39  50  1   1  1  0   85  76 13  29  37  .247  .750

Yet another Angels pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, Levine nevertheless contributed some badly needed innings in long relief. He didn't make the majors until age 28 and was hit very hard in his first two seasons, so it didn't look like he'd have much of a career. Maybe he'll be one of those guys who blossoms in his thirties.

Mike Magnante, Middle reliever , age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  4.02  53  0   4  3  0   72  80  5  28  53  .285  .760
Prorated   Ana  4.02  50  0   4  3  0   67  75  5  26  50  .285  .760
Actual     Ana  3.38  53  0   5  2  0   69  68  2  29  44  .262  .688

Magnante did a very nice job replacing Mike Holtz as the #1 left-hander out of the pen. He's always been able to get lefties out (.217 average this year, .226 career) and has struggled a little against righties (.292 this year, .283 career). His overall stats were aided by the fact that his managers spotted him better against lefties this year -- he faced LHB 41% of the time in 1999 after seeing them only 33% of the time through 1998. He should continue to be a useful lefty specialist for a few more years, but it won't be with Anaheim. Magnante became a free agent and signed a 2-year deal with Oakland.

Scott Schoeneweis, Middle reliever, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  6.35   4  4   1  2  0   23  28  3   9  15  .304  .847
Prorated   Ana  6.35   7  7   2  3  0   38  47  5  15  25  .304  .847
Actual     Ana  5.49  31  0   1  1  0   39  47  4  14  22  .294  .780

Schoeneweis began this, his rookie season, as one of two lefties in the bullpen, but didn't pitch well enough to hold onto his job past mid-year. After being demoted to AAA Edmonton, he was hit even harder -- 58 hits in 38 innings, 7.64 ERA.

Mark Petkovsek, Middle reliever, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  5.90  34  4   3  5  0   72  90  8  25  34  .314  .850
Prorated   Ana  5.90  37  4   3  5  0   78  98  9  27  37  .314  .850
Actual     Ana  3.47  64  0  10  4  1   83  85  6  21  43  .269  .691

Petkovsek showed very good control and the ability to keep the ball in the park en route to the best of his seven big-league seasons.

Troy Percival, Closer, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Ana  2.40  70  0   5  5 43   75  51  6  36  98  .191  .609
Prorated   Ana  2.40  51  0   4  4 31   55  37  4  26  72  .191  .609
Actual     Ana  3.79  60  0   4  6 31   57  38  9  22  58  .186  .642

A few very bad outings down the stretch overcame a very strong start (1.63 ERA through the end of July). Once a dominant closer (2.13 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 148 innings in 1995-6), Percival has been less consistent since. He's still one the best in the league, though there are some warning signs now -- the poor finish, a sore shoulder in September, a tendency to give up some big innings now and then, and the declining strikeout rate and save percentage.

Outlook

I'm having trouble finding a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the near future for this team.

None of the starting pitchers had an especially good year, and two of the better ones are already gone (Olivares) or on the free agent market (Finley). It's not clear that the younger starters (Washburn, Ortiz and prospect Brian Cooper) will be ready for prime time as early as next season. And while the bullpen was a strength, Magnante is now with Oakland and it's not clear whether Percival will dominate as he once did.

The offense will be better if Vaughn and Salmon and Edmonds are 100 percent, if Erstad bounces back, if Glaus continues to develop, and if they can find some offense out of the C/2B/SS positions. But it has to add 125 runs just to get back to the league average, and they'll need to do better than that to be a serious contender.

And, for better or worse, they'll need to do it with a new manager (Mike Scioscia), a new general manager (Bill Stoneman), and amid rumors of a change in ownership.