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FSM's preseason running back rankings Fantasy Sports Magazine September Issue |
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ALSO SEE: Fantasy Sports Magazine's rankings QB | WR | TE | K ESPNGames' rankings QB | RB | WR | TE | K | |||||
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The following is the rankings for running backs as it appears in the September issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine (currently on the newsstands).
Aside from Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith and a few others, it was very difficult to assess running backs, until last year. That's when the new generation took over, making your job much easier this season. Dorsey Levens, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, Corey Dillon, Antowain Smith, Garrison Hearst and Napoleon Kaufman are among those who have established themselves as "go-to" backs. Among those on the losers' ballot those who were high draft picks but now have sunk to the final rounds are Rashaan Salaam, Greg Hill, Tyrone Wheatley, Ki-Jana Carter, Terrell Fletcher, Rodney Thomas, Derek Loville and Leeland McElroy. That's not to say that it will be easy to draft running backs this year, and that nobody will make the perennial mistakes (Lawrence Phillips, Craig Heyward, Fletcher, Mario Bates, etc.) But the list of solid bets for 10 or more touchdowns is much longer entering this season. Also, there are several rookies who are good gambles because they enter the season as No. 1 or No. 2 on the depth chart. The most difficult decisions will focus on veteran runners and whether or not they have anything left in the tank. Can Emmitt Smith regain the magic behind a suddenly average offensive line? Will Thurman Thomas ever touch the ball again now that Smith has taken over? Will Marshall Faulk regain the TD touch? Will Jim Brown come out of retirement? But seriously, other than that final question, the successful fantasy-leaguers will be the ones who have the correct answers to those questions. You'll certainly want to grab one of the top 8-10 running backs in one of the first two rounds of your draft this year. The player you select as your second running back could very well determine how well your fantasy football team will be this season. 1. Terrell Davis, Broncos: There is little doubt that Davis is the top running back to get this year, and some people may take him with the first overall pick. Davis, the Super Bowl MVP who ran all over the Packers for 157 yards and three touchdowns, might not be the best running back in the league, but he's the best fantasy football running back because he gets those one-yard scores that Barry Sanders gives away to Tommy Vardell. Davis is the fantasy-leaguer's dream player. He's missed only three games in his three seasons, and has improved his rushing yardage totals each year 1,117-1,538-1,750. His TD totals each season are 8-15-15. He runs behind the best offensive line in football, an offensive line that won the Super Bowl for the Broncos last season. Last year, he had 10 100-yard games, two of them for 200 yards, and finished second in the league in rushing despite missing the final game and a half with a shoulder injury. Perhaps most importantly, unlike Sanders, Davis is priority No. 1 when the Broncos get inside the 10-yard-line. Davis is just 26 years old, plays for a great team and also happens to be a fast, strong, elusive running back. There's no reason to draft anybody else. 2. Barry Sanders, Lions: The debate will now rage is Sanders the greatest running back of all-time? Perhaps everyone could sleep better if they called Sanders the best halfback and Jim Brown the best fullback. Last season was Sanders' finest, garnering him co-MVP honors with Brett Favre. He had an incredible performance of 184 yards in the final game to reach 2,053 for the season, second all-time, and 13,778 for his career, second all-time. It was the fourth time he's led the league in rushing, and his 14 touchdowns marked the seventh time he's scored at least 11 touchdowns in a year. After rushing for 53 yards total in his first two games with new head coach Bobby Ross, the Lions moved the fullback out of Sanders' way, and he hit the 100-yard mark in his final 14 games. You know about the moves and the quickness. You know how great he is. Take him with the third pick of the draft and enjoy the show. 3. Dorsey Levens, Packers: This pick is based on the assumption that Levens re-signs with the Packers instead of holding out. There was talk during the summer that Green Bay would sign Raymont Harris and let Levens sit out the season, but that's a longshot. Levens showed glimpses of greatness in 1996, sharing time with Bennett while racking up 566 yards rushing and 10 total touchdowns (five rushing, five receiving). When Bennett blew out an Achilles tendon in the first pre-season game last year, Packer fans knew that Levens was on the way to a 1,000-yard season. His 1,435 yards was second in team history to Jim Taylor, and although he rushed for only seven TDs, he again had five receiving for a total of 12. There's no reason to expect any less this season. Levens is big (235 pounds), elusive and has decent speed. He's on a great offensive team, and one that runs the ball more than most people realize. Just 28 years old, Levens should be a 10-14 TD man as long as he's in Green Bay. 4. Jerome Bettis, Steelers: The Bus rumbled for 1,665 yards last season, but it was a frustrating year for fantasy-leaguers as Bettis routinely set up QB Kordell Stewart for one-yard plunges. His total of nine touchdowns was a little lower than it should have been. The 243-pounder has been in the NFL for five years, but he still has his best years ahead of him at age 26. The Steelers are a running team and Bettis is a bruising runner with better-than-average speed, so expect an improvement this year into the 12-TD range. 5. Eddie George, Oilers: Like Bettis, George had a fine season for the Oilers, but a not-so-great season for fantasy-leaguers in 1997. He racked up 1,399 yards, hitting 100 yards eight times, but scored only seven touchdowns. The opening game of the season was a sign of things to come 216 yards, one touchdown. That's great in leagues which have a lot of yardage bonuses (one point per 25 yards, etc.), but extremely annoying in the standard fantasy league. And it could be somewhat of a trend in his rookie season, George rushed for 1,368 yards and scored only eight touchdowns. The main problem is that the Oilers don't have a good offense, limiting his opportunities. He also had only seven receptions in 1997. George is an excellent back, however, and worthy of being a No. 1 rusher on your team. A minor knee injury sustained in an off-season minicamp required arthroscopic surgery, but don't worry about it. 6. Curtis Martin, Jets: Now that he's reunited with Bill Parcells, you can ignore last season and look at what Martin did for the Patriots in 1995 and 1996: 32 total touchdowns, 15 as a rookie and 17 in 1996. Last year, he missed the final three games of the season, but still finished with 1,160 yards and five touchdowns (four rushing). In three seasons, Martin has rushed for 3,799 yards and 37 touchdowns, using strength up the middle and speed to take one all the way, including a 70-yarder for a score last year. Now that he's back with Parcells, you can expect 1,200 yards and 10-13 TDs this season. 7. Corey Dillon, Bengals: Talk about exploding on the scene. Many people wondered why Cincinnati, which already had Ki-Jana Carter, drafted Dillon in the second round last year. By the end of the season, the answer was obvious Dillon is better. With two touchdowns and 196 yards rushing in the first eight games of '97, Dillon got his chance in Game 9 and put up 123 yards on 19 carries. By the end of the season, he had 1,129 yards and 10 scores. In the final eight games of the year, he rushed for 933 yards and eight touchdowns, including that four-TD, 246-yard performance against Tennessee in Game 14. Dillon is clearly the top back in Cincinnati, although expecting more than 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns might be unrealistic even though he'll have a full season. 8. Ricky Watters, Seahawks: While Watters has had a turbulent career, it has also been remarkably steady for fantasy-leaguers, until last year. In his first five years in the league, Watters' touchdown totals were 11-11-11-12-13. Last year, he fell off to seven, and then wandered off to Seattle. Watters did manage to reach 1,000 yards for the third straight season, but for the third time in four years, he averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry, and hit the 100-yard mark only twice. He's certainly not burned out at 29 years old, and he'll be the main man on the ground for Seattle, so it's a good bet that he'll be back in the 10-TD range this season. 9. Jamal Anderson, Falcons: After two seasons in the NFL, Anderson had zero starts and one touchdown. Two years later, he's had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and is one of the premier backs in the NFL. A seventh-round pick out of Utah, Anderson is a powerful 234-pounder who doesn't have great speed (his career long is 39 yards) but it's good enough. He had 10 touchdowns last year (seven rushing) and six total the year before. He had only two 100-yard games last season, and the Falcons don't score well enough to get him 15 touchdowns in a season, but he's the primary back and the No. 1 scoring option, making him a second-round pick in most fantasy leagues. 10. Robert Smith, Vikings: Echo (echo, echo). Every year it's the same thing with Smith, who, after four years in the NFL, still hasn't played more than 14 games in a season. Last year he started in a career-high 14 games, double his previous high, and reached the 1,000-yard mark for the first time (1,266) while hitting a career-best seven touchdowns. But despite a 5.5-yard average last year, and a stunning 4.8 average in his career (Barry Sanders' average is 5.1), Smith simply hasn't been able to stay on the field long enough to be a top-flight running back in the NFL. Even when he's playing, he doesn't touch the ball that often just 16.6 carries per game in his 14 games last year. Still, Smith could be the fastest running back in the league and his potential in this offense is just too great to ignore, which makes him a Top 10 pick. 11. Natrone Means, Chargers: Monday morning quarterbacks are laughing at this development. San Diego dumped Means after a holdout- and injury-marred 1995 season. Of course, the year before he had rushed for 1,350 yards and 12 touchdowns. So after two seasons in Jacksonville, which not coincidentally were again dragged down by injuries, Means is back in San Diego. His total of nine touchdowns last year came in 14 games as he battled ankle problems. Means is a tough one to figure; if he's healthy, he's a 12-14 TD candidate. He hasn't been healthy in four years, however, so this 240-pound bruiser is a gamble. 12. Marshall Faulk, Colts: Once considered one of the top running backs in the NFL, Faulk has been very average the past few seasons. Faulk scored 11 TDs in each of his first two seasons, but has fallen off to seven in each of the past two years. He has rushed for 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons (1,054 last year) and catches an average of 50 balls a year. The Colts might struggle with a rookie QB this year, but Faulk is still an elusive runner who could return to the 11-TD level this season. 13. Napoleon Kaufman, Raiders: This lightning bolt didn't get enough carries early in the season, but when he finally got the opportunity to be the main man, he averaged 4.8 yards per rush enroute to 1,294 yards, while scoring eight touchdowns, including long scores of 70 and 83 yards. He also played in all 16 games, something the Raiders were concerned about since Kaufman weighs only 180 pounds. He did, however, seem to fade as the year went along, rushing for 100-plus yards in six of the first 11 games, then missing the mark in his final five, although that could be credited to his team's pathetic collapse. He should be more prepared to go the full 16 this year, and he's certainly exciting to have on your team, particularly in leagues with long-distance TD bonuses. 14. Terry Allen, Redskins: After leading the league with 21 rushing touchdowns in 1996, the injury problems returned last season for Allen, who scored just five times in 10 games. What might surprise some people is that since his rookie year with the Vikings, when he blew out a knee, Allen hadn't missed a game, playing and starting in all 64 games over four seasons for Minnesota and Washington. He's still only 30 years old and if he's healthy, Allen should return to the 8-12 touchdown level this season. He should also be back in the 1,000-yard range after having his four-year streak snapped last season when he rushed for only 724 yards with three 100-yard efforts. Allen isn't the gamble that he appears to be. 15. Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Dolphins: Quick quiz: Who led the NFL in touchdowns last season? Not very tricky since we asked this while talking about Abdul-Jabbar, but you have to admit you didn't know the Dolphins' runner had an NFL-high 16 TDs, 15 of them rushing. On the down side, he rushed for 892 yards, hitting the 100-yard mark just twice, and averaged only 3.2 yards per carry. His longest carry of the year was 22 yards. Abdul-Jabbar is a good runner who hit 1,116 yards as a rookie, but has averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in his career. It's likely his TD total last year was a fluke, and even though the Dolphins have a new offensive coordinator who plans to rush the ball more, don't expect a repeat of 1997. 16. Emmitt Smith, Cowboys: How the mighty have fallen. Smith, once the best touchdown scorer in the league, is now just another running back. Most of the blame falls on his aging offensive line. Remember when Emmitt used to waltz into the end zone from the five-yard-line? That doesn't happen anymore. Smith's TD totals the past four years: 22-25-15-4. He's still a good running back, the Cowboys are still a good team, but notice that I didn't say "great." Last year, Smith had only two 100-yard games, none in the final half of the season, and now he'll be sharing carries with Warren. On the plus side, with seven straight 1,000-yard seasons, there's no reason not to expect another one, and a return to 10 TDs isn't out of the question. 17. Antowain Smith, Bills: The transition was only partial in 1997, and it should be completed this year. Smith, the team's top draft pick last year, was expected to be eased into the fold behind Thurman Thomas last year. Instead, he got 40 more carries than Thomas over the course of the season and scored eight touchdowns to Thurman's one. The final nail in the coffin: Smith is 26 years old, Thomas is 32. We're not saying that Thomas is done, just that Smith is better at this point in his career. Expect this 224-pounder with good speed to power his way to 8-10 TDs even if he shares the load with a future Hall of Famer. 18. Adrian Murrell, Cardinals: A quiet performer with the Jets for five years, Murrell has been a 1,000-yard rusher the past two seasons and scored seven touchdowns in each campaign. When the Jets decided to go with Curtis Martin, Murrell was traded to Arizona, where he again will be the featured back. The problem here isn't Murrell, it's estimating how good the Cardinals' offense will be in Jake Plummer's first full year at QB. If their offense is solid, expect another 1,000-yard year and 7-9 TDs from this steady, if unspectacular, performer. 19. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers: The reigning NFL Rookie of the Year was everything that people thought he would be (quick and fast) and nothing the naysayers thought he would be (too small) in 1997. Dunn is truly the closest thing to Barry Sanders that the league has seen. He rushed for 978 yards with a 4.4 average and a long rush of 76 yards. He also caught 39 passes, including a 59-yarder. For the year, he totalled seven touchdowns, a number that should increase this season. The only downside to this future star, from a fantasy standpoint, is that the Buccaneers are going to give the ball to Mike Alstott (244 pounds) instead of Dunn (180 pounds) when they get inside the five-yard-line, so expect a season of only 6-8 TDs. 20. Curtis Enis, Bears: The fifth pick of the draft, Enis will be the starter in Chicago, which for some reason released Raymont Harris. The most popular comparison for Enis is to Eddie George, both big, strong, dependable backs. At 242 pounds, Enis has good speed and quickness. He should be a quality running back in the NFL for many years, and should score 8-10 TDs as the Bears' No. 1 option. 21. Garrison Hearst, 49ers: Hearst was everything the Niners hoped he'd be in 1997 quick, fast and a breath of fresh air for their running offense as he hit the 1,000-yard mark for the second time in his career despite missing the final three games of the regular season with a clavicle injury. He also reached 100 yards three times. Unfortunately for fantasy-leaguers, he was again everything you can expect in the touchdown department not many. Hearst's total of six TDs was more than his career total (five) for his first four seasons, including that infamous '95 season with the Cardinals when he hit the 1,000-yard mark with only one rushing TD. Hearst is a solid running back with good speed and quickness, and his lack of touchdowns can't really be explained. With a full year, Hearst should reach 1,000 yards, 5-6 100-yard games and 7-9 scores this season. 22. Charlie Garner, Eagles: Finally. Like Kaufman, Garner was buried on the bench instead of rushing for 1,000 yards every year. Now with Watters finally out of the picture, Garner should be able to outbattle Duce Staley for the starting job, and when he does, watch out. Garner's quickness and speed will make him a threat to score every time he touches the ball, as exemplified by his outstanding 4.7 career rushing average. Expect a similar year to Kaufman's breakout season 1,200 yards, eight touchdowns and a couple of long ones for this sleeper pick of the year. 23. Errict Rhett, Ravens: After two 1,000-yard seasons in his first two seasons, Rhett put his career on hold with a holdout in 1996 that cost him half the season. Last year, he was benched and outplayed by Dunn. Now he has renewed life with the Ravens, who are expected to make Rhett the featured back he once was. Rhett isn't a great running back his career rushing average is only 3.5 but in his first two years, he scored a total of 18 TDs. He belongs in the second tier of running backs, those who are not great, but are the starting tailbacks and will get a chance for 6-10 TDs this season. 24. Mike Alstott, Buccaneers: Who's the best fullback in the NFL? For pure blocking, it may be the two who played in the Super Bowl. But for all-around play, including running and pass-catching, Alstott stands alone. At 244 pounds, Alstott is a bull who reminds many people of Larry Csonka. He can also catch the ball (88 catches in two seasons) and has very nimble feet for a big man. While he'll only rush for 600 yards or so, when the Bucs get near the goal-line, they move Alstott to halfback and put a tight end in front of him, and it's destination end zone every time. That's how he scored 10 TDs last year, and how he'll do it again this season. 25. Fred Lane, Panthers: There was a rumor coming out of the Carolina camp last year, pertaining to this small, undrafted running back who was putting on a show in practice. By Week 9, when he became the starter, everybody knew his name that Lane guy from Lane College. Just 5'10'' and 205 pounds, Lane looks like Joe Morris on the field, although he has a little more speed and a little less power. In the final eight games of the year, Lane reached 100 yards four times and scored a total of seven touchdowns. Tricky and quick, he's a tough one to bring down, and can also run with some strength. To put it simply, Lane is better than Tim Biakabutuka and will retain the starting job this season. 26. Lamar Smith, Saints: Smith, who excelled as a backup to Chris Warren the past four years in Seattle, now gets a chance to be the featured back in New Orleans. The battle for the running back spot in New Orleans includes Troy Davis and Ray Zellars, with Smith most likely getting the nod over the smallish Davis and Zellars playing fullback. Smith's career rushing average is 4.6, and he could emerge as a big-time rusher this season for Mike Ditka. 27. James Stewart, Jaguars: Stewart has started just 16 total games in the past two years, but he has 19 total touchdowns. A first-round draft pick in 1995, Stewart hasn't developed into a great player, but he has fumbled only three times on 555 touches in his career and the Jaguars love that dependability. He's a good pass-catcher, too, with 92 receptions in his career. The Jags drafted Fred Taylor with the ninth overall pick, but two scenarios are very possible: 1. Stewart winds up being better than Taylor and fourth-rounder Tavian Banks; 2. Taylor or Banks gets most of the carries, and Stewart gets the ball inside the 10-yard line. Either way, Stewart will be the one getting over the goal-line 6-8 times. 28. Raymont Harris, Packers: Apparently, the Bears grew tired of Harris' injuries, because he clearly was a producer when he got the chance in Chicago. Harris, who rushed for 1,033 yards and 10 TDs last season, was released after Chicago drafted Curtis Enis in the first round. Green Bay picked him up in hopes of making him a backup to Levens, but he may be the starter if Levens continues his holdout over a long-term contract. When he's healthy, Harris is a powerful 225-pounder with surprising speed. He had five 100-yard games last year and is dependable around the goal-line. He's now a man on a winning team for the first time in his career, and if he gets the chance to play a lot, Harris could top 1,000 yards and score 8-10 TDs once again. 29. Robert Edwards, Patriots: Now that Curtis Martin is a Jet, New England has a gaping hole at halfback, which is why the Patriots took Edwards in the first round. A solid but unspectacular back, Edwards is the frontrunner to be the starter. Just 215 pounds, Edwards has run the 40 in 4.3, but that was before he broke his left foot as a sophomore at Georgia. Don't expect great things, but Edwards should be a starter and score 6-8 TDs this season. 30. Fred Taylor, Jaguars: With Natrone Means going back to San Diego via free agency, Taylor was drafted in the first round to replace him. At the University of Florida, Taylor was very productive, getting the ball most often on a talented team. He weighs 227 pounds and can run under 4.4. The reason he isn't ranked higher is that Stewart is very good around the goal-line and tends to steal some TDs from the starting tailback on his team, and fellow rookie Tavian Banks provides even more competition for playing time. Watch closely in the preseason and take Taylor as your second starting running back only if it appears he'll be the starter. Additional RB rankings (31-60) (Greg Ambrosius is the editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine, the only national newsstand publication devoted to the growing Rotisserie and fantasy sports industry. The September-dated issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine: Special Football Draft Issue which contains position-by-position rankings, team-by-team rookie report, projected starting lineups and sleepers is currently available on newsstands nationwide.)
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