 | | Battling for the starting role in the preseason, Washington's Stephen Davis has jumped to the top of the running back list this season and was a bargain as a 12th-round pick in many drafts. | |
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Brett Favre's poor showing on Monday night and obvious physical problems thanks to a bum thumb have cast yet another top 10 pick's fantasy fortunes in doubt. Injuries are a fact of life in professional football and not even the most elite of talents are immune to missing time, but few seasons have seen such extreme volatility among the top offensive players. A quick recap of the top 10, according their average selection in ESPN's live drafts.
1. Terrell Davis, RB, Denver Broncos
Davis was the obvious choice for those lucky enough to land the first overall pick and rightly so. The All-pro running back had shown unmatched talent in helping to lead Denver to two straight Super Bowl wins and just as important, had proved to be extremely durable despite a heavy workload. That all went out the window when Davis suffered a devastating knee injury that will keep him out the rest of 1999 and certainly raises questions about the rest of his career.
2. Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers
Only in this season could Favre's performance be head and shoulders above the rest of the fantasy top five. It hasn't been a dominating performance overall however, as several brilliant fourth quarter comebacks have obscured Favre's mistakes and inaccuracy. Trying to carry a thin team on his back in an effort to prove Green Bay can win without Mike Holmgren, all while suffering from a nasty thumb injury, has made life difficult for this fantasy standout.
3. Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville
Franchise running backs are few and far between, making the 1998 emergence of Jacksonville's Fred Taylor something many fantasy owners felt was worth the investment of the third pick. Unfortunately nagging injuries have reigned in Taylor's almost unlimited potential. He returned to field on Sunday and again looked like a top five pick before having to leave the game in the second half. It's likely that only a full offseason will completely heal Taylor's hamstring, making his second season an expensive write-off.
4. Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings
See number seven on this list for the answer to Moss' struggles. Like Taylor, the talent is still clearly evident in this second year phenom. Unlike Taylor, Moss has faced his frustration on the field. Both Moss and Cris Carter applauded the move from Randall Cunningham to Jeff George, but so far it appears George is relying on the veteran more than the second year player. Despite a cannon of an arm, George has never thrown an especially effective deep ball and that could postpone a return to form on Moss' part.
5. Jamal Anderson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Another elite runner well worth a first round pick, Anderson's season was over before it started. A torn ACL in Week 1 dashed many fantasy hopes and landed the Falcons squarely in the hunt for Peter Warrick.
6. Steve Young, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Owners drafting Young were well aware of the injury issue thanks to a string of past concussions, but there was still little reason to expect the absolute worst case scenario. Shoddy blocking by the offensive line and Lawrence Phillips allowed both New Orleans and Arizona to lay devastating licks on Young, likely permanently knocking him out of action.
7. Randall Cunningham, QB, Minnesota Vikings
It was hard not to like the fantasy prospects of the starting quarterback for the most prolific offense in NFL history. Randall Cunningham was far from a one year wonder given his stat sheet stuffing days with Philadelphia, but he did possess more question marks than any other member of the top 10. His inability to handle Ray Sherman's offense and satisfy the receiving needs of Randy Moss and Cris Carter landed Cunningham on the bench. Given the immediate success enjoyed by Jeff George it appears that Cunningham is now merely the highest drafted backup in fantasy football.
8. Antonio Freeman, WR, Green Bay Packers
The second wide receiver taken, Freeman is the first player on this list to have provided owners with some measure of consistency. He ranks behind such luminaries as Cleveland's Kevin Johnson and Carolina's Muhsin Muhammad but is still posting a highly respectable 10 ppg. Any further damage to Favre's hand will obviously have a significantly negative impact on Freeman's second half performance. Is he playing up to his draft status? Probably not, but given the rest of the first round results, most owners will take it.
9. Curtis Martin, RB, New York Jets
Like Freeman above him, Curtis Martin hasn't quite lived up to the billing but has at least been worth starting every week. Not an explosive threat in New York's strong 1998 offense, Martin has surprisingly been a more dynamic running threat this season, upping his yards per carry from 3.6 to 4.2. With some combination of Rick Mirer, Ray Lucas, and Tom Tupa at quarterback, it's a good bet that Martin will again top 300 carries with ease, making a late season slump distinctly possible. His fantasy production has been hurt by the team's utter inability to create scoring chances, something that isn't likely to change.
10. Mark Brunell, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
There was no salvation at the end of the first round. Brunell has been banged up and ineffective this season, landing him in a tie for 18th among quarterbacks after week 8. Rumors of a rift with head coach Tom Coughlin might be cause for concern, but of more concern is Brunell's decreasing mobility. In 13 1995 appearances Brunell ran for 480 yards while throwing 15 touchdown passes, marking him as a multiple threat quarterback well worth a high draft pick. While full time starting duty increased his passing numbers in subsequent years, his running totals fell each year, ending last season with just 192 yards rushing in 13 starts. With 111 yards through seven games this year, Brunell is slightly ahead of that pace but it's hardly been a boon to fantasy owners. Perhaps scrapping the scrambling has made Brunell a more proficient passer but it hasn't helped his fantasy stock.
Add to that the preseason defection of Barry Sanders, Joey Galloway's continued contract feud, and injuries to high draft picks Vinny Testaverde (13th), Terrell Owens (14th), Shannon Sharpe (21st), and Jake Plummer (23rd), and it's not hard to see why parity is really a misnomer. The league is no closer to 31 teams hovering around .500 than ever before, it's merely playing out a season where much of the established offensive talent is missing in action. Take a look at this year's top 10, subjectively selected, and where they stood last season.
1. Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
Who knows where Warner was last year. Actually he appeared in one game for those same St. Louis Rams but it's a different player that paces the league's best offense this season. Like Cunningham last year, Warner is taking full advantage of plentiful weapons and a well conceived offensive system. There's that soft schedule as well, but Warner and the Rams showed they're a legitimate offense in coming back from a disastrous first quarter in Tennessee.
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Few quarterbacks ever had the kind of success in their rookie season that Peyton Manning enjoyed with Indianapolis last season. Rookie records fell by the wayside but a high interception total and the possibility of a sophomore slump prevented him from climbing above the 22nd average pick.
3. Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Harrison was an up-and-coming talent last season but was still a marginal fantasy starter. An injury kept him out of the Colts' last four games of 1998 but a bond had clearly formed with rookie quarterback Peyton Manning to the tune of seven touchdowns and 776 yards. That didn't stop Harrison from slipping to the 32nd pick on average, behind Galloway and Jerry Rice.
4. Stephen Davis, RB, Washington Redsins
Last year Davis was fighting for the top spot in Washington's backfield. This year he's the unquestioned fantasy leader among all running backs. Expected to sit behind Skip Hicks, Davis ran away with the job in preseason and hasn't slowed down yet. His gaudy 19.86 ppg is in stark contrast to his 12th round draft status, 116th overall. Washington's nine remaining games include some decent run defenses, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, and the New York Giants among them, but nothing that should keep Davis from protecting his top spot.
5. Isaac Bruce, WR, St. Louis Rams
That Bruce has emerged as the best receiver in the NFC, and possibly the NFL, is not much of a surprise to many fantasy owners. His fifth round draft status, 42nd overall, had nothing to do with talent and everything to do with injuries. In past season it was Bruce who ruined an owner's season by wasting a first or second pick thanks to a series of hamstring injuries. Now, with so many top names out of action, it's Bruce out there each Sunday hauling in touchdown catches from Kurt Warner.
6. Brad Johnson, QB, Washington Redskins
Johnson had never started more than 13 games before this season but he's well on his way to a full season of fantasy success in 1999. The 31-year-old quarterback has been especially friendly to performance scoring owners thanks to a mere two interceptions. Fantasy owners were cautious about investing too much in the former Minnesota starter, leading to an average selection of 75th.
7. Marshall Faulk, RB, St. Louis Rams
Indianapolis is happy with rookie running back Edgerrin James but St. Louis sure isn't regretting making the trade to acquire Faulk, the Colts' 1998 starter. On a team that featured June Henley as its leading rusher last year, Faulk has been as important to the team's rebirth as Warner or Bruce. The best combination runner/receiver in the league, the fifth-year back is on pace for another 2,000 combined yard season. Fantasy owners were well aware of his potential, making Faulk a second round pick, 15th overall.
8. Drew Bledsoe, QB, New England Patriots
A gutty conclusion to the 1998 season earned the strong-armed Bledsoe some newfound respect around the league but that didn't stop fantasy owners from dropping the Washington State product to the end of round two. Terry Allen and Kevin Faulk have provided enough of a running game to make up for the loss of Robert Edwards, allowing the Patriots passing offense room to operate. Although Ben Coates isn't happy about it, Bledsoe ceasing to rely so heavily on the talented tight end is a good sign of improving trust in Terry Glenn, Shawn Jefferson, and Troy Brown.
9. Emmitt Smith, RB, Dallas Cowboys
A former top overall fantasy pick, Smith has outlasted most of the challengers for that spot to reemerge as a top 10 player. His 3.5 rushing average isn't anything to get excited about and would be his lowest professional average, but his nose for the endzone has returned with the improvement of the Cowboys' offense.
10. Cris Carter, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Carter barely edges out Edgerrin James and Eddie George thanks to his recent revival and apparent chemistry with Jeff George. He wasn't exactly forgotten about in fantasy drafts, going at an average of 18th, but Carter certainly lost some his luster thanks to the emergence of Randy Moss. George has had a tendency to alienate teammates by showing up receivers who drop balls, so it's probably a wise decision for him to focus on a guy who doesn't drop anything.
It's a mix of young and improving players on the league's most potent offenses and healthy veterans with good track records, a simple formula. The first seven players on the list come from the three teams that have emerged in the reshaped NFL scene with the best scoring offenses, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and and Washington. That stranglehold may be broken as the season continues but it's unlikely that any of those players will slip out of the top 20 barring injury. Parity? No more than in recent seasons. Restructuring? Absolutely.