 | | Greg Hill is averaging an admirable 4.4 yards per carry, but his removal from goal-line scoring situations has diminished his fantasy value. | |
|
Around the halfway point of Monday night's game, Dallas loses Emmitt Smith and then promptly gave away their 17-point lead as well. Denver and Atlanta lose franchise running backs early in the season and are struggling to even catch a glimpse of .500. Detroit loses Barry Sanders to an unexpected retirement and now sits at 6-2, fresh off a thrilling win over St. Louis to close the season's first half. The remainder of the schedule is tough, including games at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, at Minnesota and home against Washington, but Bobby Ross has the Lions poised for a playoff berth after a '98 season that saw the team limp home at 5-11. Long a home for fantasy standouts like Sanders and wide receiver Herman Moore, how has the Motor City turnaround manifested itself on the fantasy field?
Quarterback
It was Gus Frerotte leading the Lions to a late win over St. Louis but starter Charlie Batch has emerged as a fantasy threat in his second year. Before a sprained finger sidelined him in the second half of Sunday's game, the Eastern Michigan alum had produced enough points to rank among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks, the hypothetical every week starter list. His value might be overstated by a strong start, 61 fantasy points in Detroit's first three games, but there can be little argument that Batch is worthy of starting consideration on your fantasy team. Selected 98th on average in ESPN live drafts, the 24-year-old hasn't received the notoriety of Kurt Warner or Brad Johnson, but that hasn't stopped him from panning out as a late round selection. While depriving fantasy owners of a sure thing at wide receiver, Batch has avoided the habit of young quarterbacks to latch on to one receiver as a security blanket. Perhaps spurred in part by the frequent absence of Herman Moore, this trait has allowed Batch to involve all his targets in the passing game. Eleven touchdowns and 7 interceptions aren't overwhelming totals and while it's hard to see Detroit improving on their surprising first half, don't look for Batch's numbers to tail off. If the injury forces him to miss Sunday's game with Arizona, look for Batch to return in time for the trip to Lambeau and then shine following week in a Thanksgiving day tilt with Chicago.
Running back
The only thing missing Detroit's backfield this season has been the return of Billy Sims. Seemingly everything that could happen to the Lions running game has happened, and yet the team still ranks in the top half of NFC ground games. The initial blow, a harsh one for fantasy owners, was the retirement/sabbatical of Barry Sanders. His announcement, although late, came before most fantasy drafts but there was still hope among many owners that the decision was merely a ploy and that at least half a season of action could be salvaged. Hope of a return quickly faded however, and owners were left to consider the predicament of starting Ron Rivers or Greg Hill. Rivers took the early lead but just when fantasy relevance beckoned he was sidelined for the season with broken ankle.
Greg Hill, 5-11 212 lbs, sixth year
Depending on who you ask, Hill is either a shifty runner who never got a legitimate chance in Kansas City or an overrated college runner who forced the Chiefs to spread the carries around. His two-game, 240-yard stint with St. Louis last season suggests the former but hints of the latter cropped up when he failed to beat out Rivers after being acquired by Detroit. As is often the case, reality seems to lie somewhere in the middle. Hill has been effective for the Lions since Rivers went down, averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per carry but has maxed out with two 16-carry efforts. His ability to pick up 60-100 yards a game makes him helpful to owners in a pinch, but his invisible redzone presence makes him merely a fill-in.
Sedrick Irvin, 6-0 220 lbs, rookie
A chic sleeper pick when Sanders headed for Europe, I'll admit I liked his chances, Irvin took a backseat to the veteran runners early in the season. That role might have changed anyway, but the injury to Rivers forced Ross to take a closer look at the rookie from Michigan State. For now Irvin is strictly a short yardage option and while that makes him a touchdown threat, it also limits his overall fantasy value. A powerful runner, Irvin has demonstrated good hands out of the backfield the last three weeks and could become a consistent third down threat. It's worth watching Irvin to see if his role continues to grow, but until he starts getting 10-15 carries a game, he's just not reliable enough to start in fantasy football.
Receivers
Detroit once possessed one of the most dynamic threesomes in fantasy football in the combination of Herman Moore, Brett Perriman, and Johnnie Morton. Last year's second round pick of Germane Crowell seemed an indication that Detroit wanted to have that triple threat again, but things haven't panned out exactly as hoped in '99.
Herman Moore, 6-3 210 lbs, ninth year
Once a physical freak among elite receivers, Moore has seen his build become the blueprint for young receivers like Randy Moss, David Boston, and even teammate Germane Crowell. Meanwhile age has begun to creep up on Moore, reducing the 30-year-old to bystander status for much of this season. The University of Virginia product has no catches in two '99 appearances and appears likely to miss yet another game in Detroit's road trip to Arizona. A strong second half performance last season as he grew accustomed to Charlie Batch indicates that Moore is well worth keeping on your fantasy bench, but it looks more and more like he'll provide a playoff boost and little else.
Johnnie Morton, 6-0 190 lbs, sixth year
Find a more consistently overlooked wide receiver in the NFL than Johnnie Morton and, well you'll be looking at Tim Brown. But Morton has endured six seasons of anonymity in Detroit despite two 1,000 yard seasons and boatloads of underutilized talent. The Stats Inc. Pro Football Handbook conveniently lists Morton, Randy Moss, and Eric Moulds on the same two pages and a few numbers jump out immediately. All three caught virtually the same number of passes last year, 69 for Moss and Morton and 67 for Moulds. 22 of the passes intended for Moulds were classified by Stats as "poor throws" while for Moss that total was 26. For Morton the total was a whopping 36, the highest total of any full-time starter (not surpisingly, Trent Dilfer's receivers had a higher percentage of poor throws but fewer total). That makes it easy to wonder if Morton's slow start, six catches in three games, was the result of trepidation on the part of Charlie Batch. Whatever the cause, Morton workload has increased steadily and there is no reason to think he'd surrender that status even with the return of Moore. Morton is due for both a 100-yard day and some more touchdowns, and with games against porous pass defenses like Washington, Chicago, and Green Bay looming look for his fantasy stock to rise dramatically.
Germane Crowell, 6-4 201 lbs, second year
Nothing raises expectations on a well-publicized sleeper quicker than a hot start, and Crowell's Week 1 26-point performance was among the best you'll ever see. Unfortunately, his one-catch-for-3-yards outing in Week 2 was a sign of the inconsistency that has haunted fantasy owners, few of whom had him in the starting lineup for that opening week explosion. In four of the team's eight games Crowell has had at least six catches, the kind of big game production that leads to stellar fantasy performances. It's just his tendency to disappear from things in the other games that has kept Crowell from earning his top 15 rank at wide receiver. Given his inexperience that isn't surprising and is a good bet to change in the near future. Unfortunately, that near future might be 2000, meaning a couple of big games sandwiched between 2 or 3 point weekends is to be expected the rest of this year.
David Sloan, TE, 6-6 254 lbs, fifth year
The veteran tight end currently ranks fifth at the position despite only one game with more than 40 yards and only one game with more than three catches (they weren't in the same game). Touchdowns each of the first two weeks, including a 74 yarder in Week 2, secured Sloan at the top of the tight end heap but he's done little to earn the starting nod since. Sloan is much more likely to slide back to the pack than make up ground on the leaders, but he might be as good a bet as any if you weren't able to land Wesley Walls or Tony Gonzalez.
Other
Jason Hanson, PK, eighth season
Good kickers on decent offensive teams that can't seem to find the endzone are fantasy gems. Hanson is a good kicker for a team that can't always get it done near the goal line. Its been good for a three-way tie for sixth place amongst kickers, a ranking that isn't likely to tumble anytime soon. His 22 point, 6-7 field goal effort in Week 5 against Minnesota has skewed his average a little, but don't be hesitant making Hanson your only kicker for the season's final eight weeks.
Defense
Key Players: Robert Porcher DE, Luther Ellis DT, James Jones DT, Chris Claiborne LB, Terry Fair CB-KR, Bryant Westbrook CB
A deep defensive line has helped the Lions become one of the best defenses against the run, allowing an NFC best 81.8 yards per game. Forced to pass, opposing teams have met with some success, averaging better than 230 yards a game through the air. Already dangerous causing fumbles, 11 through the first eight games, the secondary has begun to improve its ball-hawking, including a recent hot streak for sometimes beleaguered corner Terry Fair. Not as valuable a fantasy defense as their sixth place rank might imply, but capable of earning consistent points week in and week out. Second half games with combustible offense like Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay and even Denver could pose problems.