 | | Heimerman on Brenden Morrow: " If you are looking for points from a lesser-known source, Morrow could be your man." | |
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If PlayStation hockey has any bearing on the upcoming NHL season, Los Angeles winger Ziggy Palffy will score 174 points and lead the Kings to the Stanley Cup. However, if I learned anything during the previous two seasons of Frozen Ponderings it is that I can not base this column on the pixilated adventures of Stu Grimson and friends.
Usually a preseason column would be filled with information on the big offseason trades and free agent signings, but there was very little player movement this year, at least among the top fantasy contributors. Mark Messier's move to the Rangers is one of the few with any significance for your hockey draft. Expect him to inspire players like Theo Fleury and Brian Leetch to bounce back from horrible seasons.
Holdouts are a large concern for many NHL teams, but most of the missing players are second-tier fantasy players. Ottawa's Alexei Yashin is back and scored two goals in a recent preseason game. Look for him to contribute this season, wherever he ends up playing.
The present crop of holdouts includes New Jersey's Jason Arnott and Scott Niedermeyer, Los Angeles' Jozef Stumpel, Buffalo's Mike Peca and San Jose's Owen Nolan. Nolan is the most significant loss for fantasy players, coming off a 44-goal, 110-PIM season. However, the production of Petr Sykora and Patrik Elias could suffer if their linemate Arnott does not return soon, effectively lowering the value of three solid players.
Since the offseason lacked earth-shattering stories (unless you want to talk about the continuing soap opera in Philadelphia, but that would take days we don't have), it's time to dive in and examine the players whose stock is on the rise entering the season.
FORWARDS
Over
Brenden Morrow, Dallas. If you are looking for points from a lesser-known source, Morrow could be your man. He put up three points in the Stars' first two preseason games and appears ready to improve on his solid rookie season (33 points, 81 PIM, +8). His emergence gives Dallas six top forwards and plenty of options on the first two lines and power play. Look for the Stars offense to improve on last season's numbers, especially if Joe Nieuwendyk can stay healthy.
Over
Jeff Odgers and Krzysztof Oliwa. Playing for a first-year expansion team (the Wild and Blue Jackets, respectively) should mean huge penalty minute totals for these bruisers. Neither player backs down from a fight, but this season they will instigate a large number of altercations to defend the honor of their teammates. Each has racked up over 200 PIM in the past and Oliwa even possesses some offensive skills. Expect these two to follow the example Atlanta's Denny Lambert set last season when he amassed 219 penalty minutes making teams pay for otherwise easy victories over the Thrashers. If you need help in the penalty minutes category, Odgers and Oliwa are two top choices.
DEFENSEMEN
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Tomas Kaberle, Toronto. In his first full NHL season, Kaberle racked up 40 points, including 15 on the power play. With Bryan Berard done due to a tragic eye injury, Kaberle is set as the main man on Toronto's blue line. The Leafs have enough talented forwards to field two solid NHL teams. That means any time Kaberle passes the puck, there is a good chance it will find the back of the net. He scored two points in his first two preseason games. Look for him to approach 50 points this season.
GOALTENDERS
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Roberto Luongo, Florida. Several young goaltenders have a good chance to overtake the veterans in front of them on the depth chart this season. Trevor Kidd is known to collapse when he is challenged for the top spot (see his brief stay in Carolina) and Luongo will certainly be pushing him this year. They each played well in their first preseason action. Although Luongo's rookie numbers were far from spectacular (3.25 GAA in 24 games), remember that he played for the Islanders last season. If he can't overtake Kidd, look for 20-30 starts with a winning record at the very least. Another goaltender ready to emerge this season is Montreal's Jose Theodore. He played very well in 30 games last season (2.10 GAA, .919 SV%), but his contract negotiations look like they will drag on well into the season. Unless he enters camp soon, he will have a difficult time dethroning Jeff Hackett and making any serious fantasy impact this season.