Could this be the week that Dale Earnhardt Jr. (21.9) goes back to victory lane? The short answer is why not?

The third-generation driver is the defending winner of this race and is a two-time Michigan winner. There's also the fact he followed up last June's victory with a fourth-place finish in August, and earlier this year finished second at Fontana, the sister two-mile track to this one. Not to mention, when Junior won at Michigan a year ago, he was coming off a near miss at Pocono, where he finished third this past Sunday.

This is also just the third race since Michigan was repaved, and one of the things Junior talked about after Pocono was that he and crew chief Steve Letarte have found a good package for tracks with new asphalt.

There are several guys who will give him a run for the money. One is Greg Biffle (20.7), who won at Michigan for the third time last August and has been top-5 in five of the past nine events in the Irish Hills. This hasn't been the best of tracks for Jimmie Johnson (22.5), but he's on such a roll that past stats don't really come into play. In the past nine races, he's won twice and finished better than sixth six times, and one of his non top-10 finishes was at Dover, where he had a win taken away by a controversial restart call. ... MORE

More Expert Analysis

Jayski.com's Mark Garrow analyzes the racing world every week for ESPN.com. Garrow provides readers with an in-depth look at driver trends, race history and life on the circuit. Follow each race with exclusive coverage from the track and create a championship Stock Car Challenge team.

Garrow chat, Wed 3 p.m. ET | Michigan race-day chat, Sunday, 10:30 a.m. ET | Garrow Archive

Stock Car Challenge - Forums