With Jimmie Johnson in cruise control, trying to find a safe place for a Sunday drive to a fourth straight Sprint Cup championship, the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway could turn into a wide-open affair. So we could wind up with a surprise winner. I always pick at people around me by saying "dare to be great," and it's what I'll attempt to do as I look into my crystal ball for the season finale.

How's this for symmetry? We could begin and end the year with Matt Kenseth in Victory Lane. Before you call me crazy, try on these facts. Kenseth won at Homestead in 2007, and in the past two races on 1.5-mile tracks, he was the runner-up at Charlotte and finished third at Texas. Yes, it's true Roush Fenway Racing used to rule the intermediate speedways before losing its"mojo in 2009. Still, because Kenseth failed to make the Chase, his team has been able to go off in a research and development direction, and it has begun to pay big dividends.

Among other drivers I think will be right there is Juan Pablo Montoya. He has threatened to win several races this year on the oval tracks, and his Earnhardt-Ganassi team will throw everything in an attempt to capture the checkered flag in the season's final race.

If my top two underdogs don't perform the way I think they will, look for some of your typical front-runners. You have to believe Mark Martin has the most incentive to get up front, lead the most laps and win. … More

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Jayski.com's Mark Garrow analyzes the racing world every week for ESPN.com. Garrow provides readers with an in-depth look at driver trends, race history and life on the circuit. Follow each race with exclusive coverage from the track and create a championship Stock Car Challenge team. Mark Garrow Archive | Chat with Garrow every Sunday

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